The Run In | Page 5 | Vital Football

The Run In

PWould said:
That would leave us with 84 points.
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I had a go based on gut feeling. Very similar to yours I had us ending on 83 points. Based on how they played against us , I feel Sunderland have a very strong side and I actually think Johnson is a decent manager, so despite their tougher (on paper) run in I think they will claim one of the top two slots with us Peterborough or Hull the other. If we can nick an unexpected win that could be the difference.
Obviously hope I'm way off and we romp to the title
 
I generally concur with your analysis. However I am not so sure about Lee Johnson. I live around the vicinity of Bristol and know several Bristol City fans including season ticket holders. They were to a person relieved when he left the building and most thought despite his longevity at Ashton Gate, that he was a chancer. His record had several big highs ie winning runs, followed by very poor results, again in sequence. I wonder whether this pattern may re emerge with the Mackems. Clearly, given current form they are likely to be favourites to win the league, but I just wonder.? It is such a pressure cooker at Sunderland and things could turn quickly. Just like at Pompey. Like several big clubs in our league, it is maybe fortunate for us that none of them in my view are managed by top drawer managers. Cook may be an exception, but he has come too late to the party this season, and will be judged critically next season. I am comforted by the fact that I would not swap Appleton for any of his so called rivals.
 
I usually write an article at this stage of the season on which teams have the most difficult games in the run-in, but I can see no point this year. This season continues to be unpredictable and I genuinely believe almost anything can happen on any given match day. The next eight weeks will be a rollercoaster, and some of it will defy explanation; logic will go out of the window, there will simply be winners and losers. Which will be which? For the first time ever, I have absolutely no idea.
 
PWould said:
I generally concur with your analysis. However I am not so sure about Lee Johnson. I live around the vicinity of Bristol and know several Bristol City fans including season ticket holders. They were to a person relieved when he left the building and most thought despite his longevity at Ashton Gate, that he was a chancer. His record had several big highs ie winning runs, followed by very poor results, again in sequence. I wonder whether this pattern may re emerge with the Mackems. Clearly, given current form they are likely to be favourites to win the league, but I just wonder.? It is such a pressure cooker at Sunderland and things could turn quickly. Just like at Pompey. Like several big clubs in our league, it is maybe fortunate for us that none of them in my view are managed by top drawer managers. Cook may be an exception, but he has come too late to the party this season, and will be judged critically next season. I am comforted by the fact that I would not swap Appleton for any of his so called rivals.
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Yes, I live in Brizzle and you are right I think there is definitely a sizable anti-Johnson vibe amongst their fans going back to dad Gary. I just felt like L Johnson has got the mackems really organized and they are very confident and controlled in possession. But who knows , maybe they have had their exceptional run and a correction will ensue - hopefully including against us!
 
If we can take 4+ points from Dale and Gills, it will set us up nicely for the trip to Sunderland and perhaps make it our biggest game since Fulham 82. I reckon there'll be 40000+ in the stadium with 5000 from Lincoln. I can't wait.

Although as Scot Imp says there's no guarantee we won't get rolled by Dale or Gills first.
 
PWould said:
I generally concur with your analysis. However I am not so sure about Lee Johnson. I live around the vicinity of Bristol and know several Bristol City fans including season ticket holders. They were to a person relieved when he left the building and most thought despite his longevity at Ashton Gate, that he was a chancer. His record had several big highs ie winning runs, followed by very poor results, again in sequence. I wonder whether this pattern may re emerge with the Mackems. Clearly, given current form they are likely to be favourites to win the league, but I just wonder.? It is such a pressure cooker at Sunderland and things could turn quickly. Just like at Pompey. Like several big clubs in our league, it is maybe fortunate for us that none of them in my view are managed by top drawer managers. Cook may be an exception, but he has come too late to the party this season, and will be judged critically next season. I am comforted by the fact that I would not swap Appleton for any of his so called rivals.
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Was just going to make the exact same point about Johnson teams going on long runs of either winning or losing. They're on a good run at the minute but history would suggest that they are likely to go on a poor run soon, and it may last to the end of the season.
 
Sunderland are on a good run ,but they have played these games against poor sides out of form and lower down ,and charlie wyke in form the test comes for them in these next 11 games all top 10 bar wigan and rovers who are both fighting relagation .
 
And one factor no one can calculate at this point is exactly how the compacted season will affect each team/squad in the final eight weeks. I suspect some will be dead on their feet before 8 May, some are getting to that point now. Take a brief trawl around League One forums, the concern is tangible and widespread.
 
Scotimp said:
And one factor no one can calculate at this point is exactly how the compacted season will affect each team/squad in the final eight weeks. I suspect some will be dead on their feet before 8 May, some are getting to that point now. Take a brief trawl around League One forums, the concern is tangible and widespread.
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Our cunning strategy of getting key players injured might pay off in the long term if they come back fit and re-enegised for the last few games!
 
I certainly believe if we had had Bridcutt on the field for most of the season rather than about half, and Walsh not out for three periods, not mentioning Jorge now, then we would be likely champions. I think the stats alone about wins and losses with and without Bridcutt is significant.
 
PWould said:
I certainly believe if we had had Bridcutt on the field for most of the season rather than about half, and Walsh not out for three periods, not mentioning Jorge now, then we would be likely champions. I think the stats alone about wins and losses with and without Bridcutt is significant.
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Certailny if Morton had also been available all season.
 
Today's press conference suggested Bridcutt and Howarth could be back for the Sunderland match. Would be huge if they are and if they can stay fit.
 
League form:
with Bridcutt: P16 W10 D4 L2 F21 A9 Pts34 PPG: 2.00 GFPG: 1.31 GAPG: 0.56
without: P17 W8 D3 L6 F31 A23 Pts27 PPG: 1.58 GFPG: 1.82 GAPG: 1.35

In short, that equates to 92 points over 46 games with him, but only 72 without - the difference between automatic promotion and missing the play-offs.

We score more goals without him (84 per 46 games instead of 60) but look at the goals conceded per game figure: 26 per season with him instead of 62 without.

Subjective to a point of course, due to identity of opponents played, strength of team etc. But the numbers do look convincing.
 
Yep that confirms my feeling about how important Bridcutt is particularly to our defensive stability. Also re Morton, his sharpness around the box and poachers instinct would also have likely to have gleaned us significant points.
 
Scotimp said:
League form:
with Bridcutt: P16 W10 D4 L2 F21 A9 Pts34 PPG: 2.00 GFPG: 1.31 GAPG: 0.56
without: P17 W8 D3 L6 F31 A23 Pts27 PPG: 1.58 GFPG: 1.82 GAPG: 1.35

In short, that equates to 92 points over 46 games with him, but only 72 without - the difference between automatic promotion and missing the play-offs.

We score more goals without him (84 per 46 games instead of 60) but look at the goals conceded per game figure: 26 per season with him instead of 62 without.

Subjective to a point of course, due to identity of opponents played, strength of team etc. But the numbers do look convincing.
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Solid stats. They completely align with watching team performances with and without him as well. We are still dangerous without Bridcutt, given the quality across multiple players, but the role he occupies and how he carries it out is the difference between challenging and being at the top of the heap.

This is why we were so successful against Crewe, and for portions of the Ipswich match I think. Edun was able to duplicate this defensive midfield role. It is why in the long run (hopefully in the short run as well) if Edun/Sanders can play this position we will remain a top side in League 1. Clearly Bridcutt has had injury challenges this year, and given his age it is probably the start of a transitional period in his career in football. It looks like MA recognizes this and so brought in fullbacks that allows Edun to develop where he can be most effective.

All positive I think. For Imps I like to think the glass is not only half full, but overflowing a little bit on the sides. Then again I'm a naturally positive fella:)
 
LA_Imp said:
Solid stats. They completely align with watching team performances with and without him as well. We are still dangerous without Bridcutt, given the quality across multiple players, but the role he occupies and how he carries it out is the difference between challenging and being at the top of the heap.

This is why we were so successful against Crewe, and for portions of the Ipswich match I think. Edun was able to duplicate this defensive midfield role. It is why in the long run (hopefully in the short run as well) if Edun/Sanders can play this position we will remain a top side in League 1. Clearly Bridcutt has had injury challenges this year, and given his age it is probably the start of a transitional period in his career in football. It looks like MA recognizes this and so brought in fullbacks that allows Edun to develop where he can be most effective.

All positive I think. For Imps I like to think the glass is not only half full, but overflowing a little bit on the sides. Then again I'm a naturally positive fella:)
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Think that’s a good point, while we were slightly perplexed about signing two full backs on deadline day, what it actually did was give us more versatility by allowing Edun to play midfield and potentially Eyoma centre back (we were close to losing Jackson).
On other teams and injuries, can only imagine the effect on Sunderland’s chances if Wyke got injured for example.
 
Red Wimp said:
Think that’s a good point, while we were slightly perplexed about signing two full backs on deadline day, what it actually did was give us more versatility by allowing Edun to play midfield and potentially Eyoma centre back (we were close to losing Jackson).
On other teams and injuries, can only imagine the effect on Sunderland’s chances if Wyke got injured for example.
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Not all of us were perplexed...

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Sincilbanks
Vital 1st Team Regular
Jan 27, 2021
#657
I think if you sign a right back you automatically add cover at centre half because TJ can (and has) played there...
 
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