See my message 24 on this thread:
We have a very favourable-looking run of games over the next month: Accy (H), Wigan (A), Swindon (H), Plymouth (A), Fleetwood (H), Crewe (H), Ipswich (A), Rochdale (H), Gills (H). If we can take 18+ points from that lot it sets us up for a tougher looking last 11 games - we need to definitely be through the 70 pt mark by 5pm on 16th March IMHO.
This is the pre-run in.
You can sub-divide this into three groups of three, each with 2 H and 1 A. 6-7 pts from each group of 3 would be ideal.
If we are at 70 pts on 16th March (I think it is midweek so 10pm rather than 5pm!) we are in a fantastic position for the last 11 games.
So we have completed the first tranche of 3 games in this 9 game mini-run ('pre run-in'):
Accrington (H) 1
Wigan (A) 3
Swindon (H) 1
5 points, probably less than the 7 or so that most people would have hoped for, however in another season it could easily have been 0, as the performances were a little flakey. We had to come from behind four times across the three games. Taking that as a positive it shows that we are resilient even when not playing well.
So to the next tranche of 3 games:
Plymouth (A)
Fleetwood (H)
Crewe (H)
These three teams are not going anywhere this season - definitely not down and almost certainly not troubling the play offs. They are the sort of teams you want to play in the run in, however on their day they can match anyone. Plymouth have a strong home record. We have played them twice, a slightly fortuitous home win and an unlucky away defeat in the FA Cup. If football evens itself out over a season this should be a point apiece. Fleetwood, we were unlucky not to win at their place, Crewe we have won twice at their place in league and league cup. Right now, I would be happy with another 5 point return from these fixtures. That might require me to revise hopes of reaching 70 points by 16 March, but I suspect with the way all results have gone in the last 10 days that 67/68 may be an ok milestone.
Summary - I think we are still just about on target. We have to keep showing resilience - and flashes of quality (like the winner at Wigan) - over the next few weeks. It goes without saying that we need to minimise errors and misplaced passes, which are often a symptom of mental tiredness. We need returns from injury for the run in (Bridcutt, Walsh, Anderson are currently big misses and the threadbare squad looks jaded).
Of the challengers, Posh look like they could march to the title although their fixture list gets tougher soon. Our main challengers for second spot, I believe, are Sunderland though I'm not writing off Hull or Portsmouth yet.