The Run In | Page 4 | Vital Football

The Run In

Myself i would go for a Hull win. Hopefully we will win tomorrow at Wigan and we would pull further ahead of Doncaster who have the game in hand. This would hopefully give us a bit of a gap between the top 3 and the rest especially if Portsmouth drop points at home to Blackpool.

Hopefully when we play our games in hand on Hull we will be able to pull away from them as well.
 
As Hull play Doncaster tomorrow. What is the best result for us. Is it a win for Hull that would keep them close to us, but we still have 2 games in hand. Or do we want a Doncaster, or a draw and them both sharing the points?
A draw means both sides drop 2 more points and 1 point disappears into eternity, so that's always the best when our close rivals are up against each other.
 
The draw between rival teams always makes me smile. If your club get a draw you are invariably happy that you haven't lost ground to that opponent whilst sagely letting it be known it is a crucial point in the bag.

If two rival teams draw you, invariably take delight in knowing that they have both missed an opportunity to adversely affect your own side.
 
just comparing the injury announcements to the fixture dates...
bridcutt's 4 weeks would have him back around the time of the rochdale home game [7 games from now], and crucially, possibly fit for both the sunderland and oxford games.
if it is six weeks, he might just be back for the oxford game [10].

walsh and anderson: 4 weeks and they would be back around the time of the gillingham home game [8 games from now]
walsh and anderson: 6 weeks and they would be back around the time of the mkdons home game [11 games from now]

although, as has been seen with morton, and to an extent archibald, these time estimates are often optimistic.

talking of morton, last comment from appleton i remember he said morton would be back late feb / early march. any update on that?
 
See my message 24 on this thread:
We have a very favourable-looking run of games over the next month: Accy (H), Wigan (A), Swindon (H), Plymouth (A), Fleetwood (H), Crewe (H), Ipswich (A), Rochdale (H), Gills (H). If we can take 18+ points from that lot it sets us up for a tougher looking last 11 games - we need to definitely be through the 70 pt mark by 5pm on 16th March IMHO.

This is the pre-run in.
You can sub-divide this into three groups of three, each with 2 H and 1 A. 6-7 pts from each group of 3 would be ideal.

If we are at 70 pts on 16th March (I think it is midweek so 10pm rather than 5pm!) we are in a fantastic position for the last 11 games.

So we have completed the first tranche of 3 games in this 9 game mini-run ('pre run-in'):

Accrington (H) 1
Wigan (A) 3
Swindon (H) 1

5 points, probably less than the 7 or so that most people would have hoped for, however in another season it could easily have been 0, as the performances were a little flakey. We had to come from behind four times across the three games. Taking that as a positive it shows that we are resilient even when not playing well.

So to the next tranche of 3 games:

Plymouth (A)
Fleetwood (H)
Crewe (H)

These three teams are not going anywhere this season - definitely not down and almost certainly not troubling the play offs. They are the sort of teams you want to play in the run in, however on their day they can match anyone. Plymouth have a strong home record. We have played them twice, a slightly fortuitous home win and an unlucky away defeat in the FA Cup. If football evens itself out over a season this should be a point apiece. Fleetwood, we were unlucky not to win at their place, Crewe we have won twice at their place in league and league cup. Right now, I would be happy with another 5 point return from these fixtures. That might require me to revise hopes of reaching 70 points by 16 March, but I suspect with the way all results have gone in the last 10 days that 67/68 may be an ok milestone.

Summary - I think we are still just about on target. We have to keep showing resilience - and flashes of quality (like the winner at Wigan) - over the next few weeks. It goes without saying that we need to minimise errors and misplaced passes, which are often a symptom of mental tiredness. We need returns from injury for the run in (Bridcutt, Walsh, Anderson are currently big misses and the threadbare squad looks jaded).

Of the challengers, Posh look like they could march to the title although their fixture list gets tougher soon. Our main challengers for second spot, I believe, are Sunderland though I'm not writing off Hull or Portsmouth yet.
 
Of the challengers, Posh look like they could march to the title although their fixture list gets tougher soon. Our main challengers for second spot, I believe, are Sunderland though I'm not writing off Hull or Portsmouth yet.

Don't fall into the trap of extrapolating the rest of the season from the last couple of games.

Doncaster, Portsmouth and Hull have all been expected to storm away in the recent past.

I've always thought that Sunderland would improve, though they still need to have an exceptional run to the end of the season to get in the top two.
 
I guess it's all about us right now, but just to add a bit of detail around Posh and Sunderland, those 2 have the toughest remaining fixtures - Posh on paper the toughest but if you look at playing teams towards top / bottom Sunderland have very few mid-table teams left (although I think it's a little early to define mid-table just yet).

These are the fixture timelines by current league position of opposition. Lincoln included again for comparison:

Lincoln:
1614159216394.png

Peterborough:
1614159263791.png

Sunderland:
1614159300525.png
 
Out next six against middling teams are key or Sunderland could be breathing down our necks when we play them.
Hull also have a nice-looking run in, but it's at 2/3 games less than others and their form is awful!
 
These are all the teams over 1.5 points per game after yesterday. Oxford's surge has levelled off, Blackpool are on the rise and Ipswich are starting to find a bit of form. I think Ipswich will finish much higher. Most notable absence from this is Charlton who have dropped away rapidly recently.

It would be very nice if Lincoln could flatten the line out in the next 2 home matches.

1614505934560.png
 
Interesting basically everyone bar the posh sunlan an Blackpool are faltering

that was a hell of a climb by Oxford
 
Okay time to take stock. An interesting Sat / Tues / Sat ahead:
  • Saturday v Rochdale (H) when Posh and Sunderland have no league match so a chance to go second and build a gap.
  • Tuesday v Gillingham (H) when Hull don't play is one of our games in hand over them with Sunderland playing the following day due to the Cup Final on Sunday.
  • Saturday v Sunderland (A) - hopefully we can make the extra day count.
So basically that's 3 chances to gain points on our 3 closest rivals in 3 matches before we start the last 10 match run in.
 
Current top 6 on PPG:

1615405439886.png

1.60 (Blackpool) or more is the magic number.

Ipswich (1.59), Portsmouth (1.58), Accrington (1.56), Oxford (1.56), Charlton (1.50) are the others at 1.50 or more.
 
Our trending looks scary on that scale, lol. As do Blackpool and Donny for the opposite reason. We need to restore a bit of confidence with some wins.
 
Obviously I have too much time on my hands at the moment.
Just for a giggle I have looked at all the top 10 sides games to play and made a prediction of all the results. It started by me looking at our last 13 fixtures. I am predicting 6 wins, 5 draws and two defeats. That would leave us with 84 points.
I then carried on with alot of cross referencing to all the top 10's fixtures. A few things stood out. Ipswich only playing two top 10 sides, Hull have 4, Lincoln have 6 alongside Donny, Peterborough have 8 and Sunderland have a whopping 9. I think this will prove to be significant. I have not factored in good and poor managers, even though it is tempting to give negative weights to McCann Jacket, Bowyer and even Johnson, despite Sunderland's impressive recent run. I have also not factored in current form, tempting as it is, as we know how things can quickly turn.
I have just gone with gut feelings about scores, based on some league knowledge, probably some bias and the teams difficulty of the run in. It is hard as the middle rankers such as Crewe, Mk, Gills, Shrews, Fleetwood and now even Burton can easily upset the apple cart.
There is not a gnats arse between the top 6 and one or two surprises. I thought before I started for example that Sunderland would have to be in the top 2.
Anyway here it is for what its worth. At least it will provoke some reactions , views and comment and not be taken too seriously.
Ist place Hull. 85 points. Champions. On the basis of an easier run in, points in the bag and Posh's last 4 games when they will feel the pressure.
2nd place. Peterborough. 85 points but weaker goal difference.
3rd place. Imps. 84 points. I am predicting we will not win any of the games against the teams in the top 10 Losing 2 and drawing 4, so any more positive scores could see us in the top 2 or even champions. It could be that tight.
4th place. Sunderland. 82 points.
5th place. Blackpool. 80 points.
6th place . Ipswich. 80 Points
7th place. Doncaster. 78 points.
8th place. Oxford. 75 points.
9th place. Portsmouth. 72 points.
10th place. Accrington. 70 points.
Hold on to your hats.