The Run In | Page 3 | Vital Football

The Run In

Skip155 said:
I posted on the Accrington match thread that I think the next 8 matches where we don't face any main rivals (as things stand) is the period that will help define the quality of the tough period we've just come through (doing an excellent job of keeping our rivals at arms length in my opinion). After that we'll know more clearly what the traditional run in looks like with 11 matches to go.

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During this period (our matches 28-35) the other current members of the top 6 play each other as follows (their match number in brackets):

Donny (27) v Hull (30)
Posh (33) v Hull (35)
Posh (34) v Portsmouth (34)
Donny (30) v Portsmouth (31)
Portsmouth (33) v Sunderland (33)

The run in is massive of course but there is quite a definitive period starting now. The pre-run in run :-)
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See my message 24 on this thread:
We have a very favourable-looking run of games over the next month: Accy (H), Wigan (A), Swindon (H), Plymouth (A), Fleetwood (H), Crewe (H), Ipswich (A), Rochdale (H), Gills (H). If we can take 18+ points from that lot it sets us up for a tougher looking last 11 games - we need to definitely be through the 70 pt mark by 5pm on 16th March IMHO.

This is the pre-run in.
You can sub-divide this into three groups of three, each with 2 H and 1 A. 6-7 pts from each group of 3 would be ideal.

If we are at 70 pts on 16th March (I think it is midweek so 10pm rather than 5pm!) we are in a fantastic position for the last 11 games.
 
simes69 said:
See my message 24 on this thread:
We have a very favourable-looking run of games over the next month: Accy (H), Wigan (A), Swindon (H), Plymouth (A), Fleetwood (H), Crewe (H), Ipswich (A), Rochdale (H), Gills (H). If we can take 18+ points from that lot it sets us up for a tougher looking last 11 games - we need to definitely be through the 70 pt mark by 5pm on 16th March IMHO.

This is the pre-run in.
You can sub-divide this into three groups of three, each with 2 H and 1 A. 6-7 pts from each group of 3 would be ideal.

If we are at 70 pts on 16th March (I think it is midweek so 10pm rather than 5pm!) we are in a fantastic position for the last 11 games.
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I think I always regarded Accy as the last of the tough run rather than the first of the favourable fixtures but I do see the logic of including it in the 3 groups of 3. Still on track for your targets.

Accy are actually ahead of Sunderland and in the top 6 on PPG - it'll be interesting to see how it all looks when we get to Sunderland which is 11 matches to go (i.e. what I think you and I are defining as the start of the run in).
 
Skip155 said:
I think I always regarded Accy as the last of the tough run rather than the first of the favourable fixtures but I do see the logic of including it in the 3 groups of 3. Still on track for your targets.

Accy are actually ahead of Sunderland and in the top 6 on PPG - it'll be interesting to see how it all looks when we get to Sunderland which is 11 matches to go (i.e. what I think you and I are defining as the start of the run in).
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With Accrington now in the top six we have played 5 league games against top six clubs within the last 6 weeks (just over). We don't play a current top 6 club now until April 24th (Hull), a gap of nearly 10 weeks. We've weathered the storm rather well!
 
I love looking at all these tables and projections - for me it’s how many games we have to play in terms of top 6, the mid table and the bottom four.

Then it’s how many games in hand do teams still have and how much that impacts them playing 2 or possible 3 times in a week.

Lincoln 3 top 6 games (all 6 pointers), 14 mid table games (anyone can beat anyone on there day) & then 3 bottom 4 clubs (either a nailed on win or a really hard game as they are fighting for league survival). Then everyone else...

Stats table from 10/02/21

Linc 3 - 14 - 3
Hull 4 - 12 - 3
Pet 6 - 10 - 4
Port 2 - 14 - 4
Don 5 - 14 - 3
 
"Lincoln 3 top 6 games (all 6 pointers), 14 mid table games (anyone can beat anyone on there day) & then 3 bottom 4 clubs (either a nailed on win or a really hard game as they are fighting for league survival). Then everyone else...

Stats table from 10/02/21

Linc 3 - 14 - 3
Hull 4 - 12 - 3
Pet 6 - 10 - 4
Port 2 - 14 - 4
Don 5 - 14 - 3"

That is promising to say the least. Our record against other top 6 sides is ordinary, getting close to poor. I'd back us to be really consistent in the other 17 games though.

However our 3 "top 6" games are all away I think? Hull, Preterborough & Sunderland? We are miles better away from home, so that is another plus.
 
I don't think anyone is better than us in this league consistently. My concern is current form (on the pitch) (decreasing energy levels -poor pitches) and injuries. Johnson looks lost and I don't see Rogers grabbing any game by gonads. Maybe it is time for set piece heaven to get us through.
 
domski2017 said:
I don't think anyone is better than us in this league consistently. My concern is current form (on the pitch) (decreasing energy levels -poor pitches) and injuries. Johnson looks lost and I don't see Rogers grabbing any game by gonads. Maybe it is time for set piece heaven to get us through.
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I'm waiting for Rogers to go on a bit of a tear to be honest. It seems like he has it in him for some wonder goals, but just needs to settle and find a good rhythm for a few games. Getting closer.
 
I think thenext few weeks with injuries heavy pitches and grinding out results will make for interesting reading. Its anybodies league we just have to match the others.
 
With ten games left we go to Sunderland and Oxford.
After that we need to negotiate trips to Charlton and Peterborough, but wherever we are after that Oxford trip at the end of March is where I think we'll end up.
 
Average current position of teams left to play:

Lincoln: 13.8 (19 games left)
Hull: 12.6 (17 games left)
Peterborough: 11.4 (19 games left)
Portsmouth: 13.9 (19 games left)
Doncaster: 12.5 (20 games left)
Accrington: 12.8 (20 games left)

In theory, we have a decent chance based on the games we have left. A few teams have important double headers right at the end of the season which could have a massive impact. Accrington and Portsmouth play each other twice and so do Peterborough and Doncaster.
 
libertine said:
Average current position of teams left to play:

Lincoln: 13.8 (19 games left)
Hull: 12.6 (17 games left)
Peterborough: 11.4 (19 games left)
Portsmouth: 13.9 (19 games left)
Doncaster: 12.5 (20 games left)
Accrington: 12.8 (20 games left)

In theory, we have a decent chance based on the games we have left. A few teams have important double headers right at the end of the season which could have a massive impact. Accrington and Portsmouth play each other twice and so do Peterborough and Doncaster.
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At that stage of the season the classic six pointers really do start to bite - rivals guaranteed to both pick up and drop points.
 
As seasons end, it's best to play the teams in the middle. Teams in the bottom 5 or 6 are invariably fiercely motivated and even the team (s) already down play with more freedom and perhaps seeking contracts and deals at better clubs. Whatever happens, I'm grateful for this season, but, as a football pessimist by nature, keep feeling positive. UTI!
 
As Hull play Doncaster tomorrow. What is the best result for us. Is it a win for Hull that would keep them close to us, but we still have 2 games in hand. Or do we want a Doncaster, or a draw and them both sharing the points?
 
Lincoln Imp said:
As Hull play Doncaster tomorrow. What is the best result for us. Is it a win for Hull that would keep them close to us, but we still have 2 games in hand. Or do we want a Doncaster, or a draw and them both sharing the points?
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I think a draw would be best. That said if they weren't playing each other I'd think of one win and one defeat between them as a decent return for us whichever way it went so there's no losing here really.
 
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