The Run In | Page 2 | Vital Football

The Run In

If you split the league into 3 (top 8, middle 8 and bottom 8) and look at the results against those teams, it makes interesting reading.

Top 8
2nd Portsmouth 15pts from 9 games (5 more still to play)
3rd Hull City 14pts from 9 games (5 more still to play)
4th Doncaster Rovers 13pts from 6 games (8 more still to play)
12th Lincoln City 9pts from 9 games (5 more still to play)
14th Peterborough Utd 7 pts from 6 games (8 more still to play

Top of the points from playing the top 8 is Shrewsbury with 18pts from 10 games (6 more still to play)

Middle 8
1st Lincoln City 22pts from 8 games (8 games still to play)
2nd Peterborough Utd 22pts from 10 games (6 games still to play)
4th Portsmouth 19pts from 10 games (6 games still to play)
7th Hull City 17 pts from 9 games (7 games still to play)
9th Doncaster Rovers 13 pts from 8 games (8 games still to play)


Bottom 8
2nd Doncaster Rovers 22 pts from 10 games (6 games still to play)
3rd Lincoln City 21 pts from 9 games (7 games still to play)
5th Peterborough Utd 20 pts from 10 games (6 games still to play)
9th Hull City 18 pts from 9 games (7 games still to play)
16th Portsmouth 14 pts from 7 games (9 games still to play)

Top of the points from playing the bottom 8 is Oxford Utd with 24 pts from 9 games (7 games still to play)

Yeah Oxford's record breaking run was mainly against 'bottom' teams. Add the latest win (Bristol Rovers) to that. Came up short against Donny though.
But I suppose they now have to be seen as a 'tough one.'
 
The home games will be the key, even if they are mainly against teams in the lower half.

I back us to pick up enough wins way from home against anybody. At home we struggle a bit to pick apart sides that just sit back - especially in an empty stadium.

Having said that, but for missed penalties, we would be 5 points better off ({Peterborough and Donnie). Again though I'm not sure that would actually be a good thing. I much prefer us having to fight every week to stay in the top two than have a significant lead - and complacency set in.

Plus, we may be able to add Morton to the mix in a couple of weeks' time 😉
 
We have a very favourable-looking run of games over the next month: Accy (H), Wigan (A), Swindon (H), Plymouth (A), Fleetwood (H), Crewe (H), Ipswich (A), Rochdale (H), Gills (H). If we can take 18+ points from that lot it sets us up for a tougher looking last 11 games - we need to definitely be through the 70 pt mark by 5pm on 16th March IMHO.
 
Interesting that Donny and Peterborough play each other twice in both teams' last 3 matches. That could be crucial. We're sandwiched in between those as Posh's 45th match...

Posh have by far the worse end to the season, as well as the above, they also have Charlton in their last 4 matches. Pompey on the other hand play 8 out of their last 10 matches against teams presently sitting in the bottom 11 places in the division!! with the other 2 games being both against Accrington. I still fancy Pompey will get one of the two automatic places.
 
I really need to post this now, having done it for a while elsewhere...

This is our progress since day one of the season:

1st - 9 games
2nd - 9 games
3rd - 4 games
4th - 2 games
5th - 1 game
6th - 1 game

Nearly 35% of the season spent at the top
Nearly 35% of the season spent in second place
Over 69% of the season spent in the top two
100% of the season spent in the top six

We have not been lower than sixth place (and that for only one game)

Surprised?
 
This is what we have to look forward to. Posh and Donny still have a lot of work to do against the other members of the current top 5.

View attachment 46008
Decent record so far for Shrews against the currently top 6.

Interesting that us, Hull and Portsmouth all have issues (if you can call it that) against fellow top 6'ers with Posh and Donny still having to play catch up so might end up being in the same boat.
 
Like others have said, I can see us getting better as we get closer to the end of season. Players like Rodgers, who only came in last month will get even better, Sanders will be up to speed in a month or so and Morton should be able to play a big part in the last 10 games.

Alot can change in 2 games let alone 20 and there's always drama in the last few games of any season. However with that said, I do think by the time we come to play Shrewsbury (27th April) we will be assured of promotion but not necessarily the title.
 
Pompey on the other hand play 8 out of their last 10 matches against teams presently sitting in the bottom 11 places in the division!! ... I still fancy Pompey will get one of the two automatic places.

Portsmouth if they don 't lose any ground over the next 10 games would fancy their chances.

However, from purely a Lincoln point of view we have only 4 different opponents compared to Pompey before the season end (ignoring venue as such)

We have
Hull (H)
Fleetwood (H)
Plymouth (A)
Charlton (A). which they don't

Portsmouth have
Doncaster (A)
Accrington (A)
Bristol R (H)
Northampton (H) which we don't

On paper you would probably say theirs were slightly easier.

Until you think we took 8 points from the first matches we had against Hull/Fleetwood/Plymouth/Charlton

But only 4 points from the extra games Portsmouth still have to play

Football on paper is a strange game.
 
Decent record so far for Shrews against the currently top 6.

Interesting that us, Hull and Portsmouth all have issues (if you can call it that) against fellow top 6'ers with Posh and Donny still having to play catch up so might end up being in the same boat.

I think you can exaggerate that a bit though can't you. As you'd expect everyone has less points against the top teams so a win here or there makes a massive difference to those stats. We could easily have beaten Doncaster and then our record against the top teams isn't too bad at all. Obviously could be better as you'd want to be top of all the groups but I wouldn't say it shows we have some unusual issue in beating good teams, beyond it just being harder.
 
Crewe v Portsmouth and Oxford v Wigan postponed; the Oxford game has been rearranged for Sunday.
 
Crewe v Portsmouth and Oxford v Wigan postponed; the Oxford game has been rearranged for Sunday.

Wigan play Hull on Tuesday so that's 2 games in 3 days for them unless that match gets pushed back to Weds as a result.
 
Looks like Wigan v Hull has been pushed back 24 hours to Wednesday which makes perfect sense.
 
Crewe v Portsmouth and Oxford v Wigan postponed; the Oxford game has been rearranged for Sunday.

Given the fixture log jam that is happening I wonder if quite a few teams will look at this the weather forecast is showing it getting a lot milder from Sunday and even 10 degrees by Monday
 
Given the fixture log jam that is happening I wonder if quite a few teams will look at this the weather forecast is showing it getting a lot milder from Sunday and even 10 degrees by Monday
Wonder if it might be an idea to switch our game to Sunday already, assuming Stanley are travelling on the day. Forecast doesn't have us above 1C at all on Saturday coupled with -5C tonight, can't see our game on tomorrow. Sunday forecast is 5C.
 
I posted on the Accrington match thread that I think the next 8 matches where we don't face any main rivals (as things stand) is the period that will help define the quality of the tough period we've just come through (doing an excellent job of keeping our rivals at arms length in my opinion). After that we'll know more clearly what the traditional run in looks like with 11 matches to go.

1613384500568.png

During this period (our matches 28-35) the other current members of the top 6 play each other as follows (their match number in brackets):

Donny (27) v Hull (30)
Posh (33) v Hull (35)
Posh (34) v Portsmouth (34)
Donny (30) v Portsmouth (31)
Portsmouth (33) v Sunderland (33)

The run in is massive of course but there is quite a definitive period starting now. The pre-run in run :-)