Ukraine Situation

[Gilles Lingam]

"Russia's first mobilization since WWII has sparked protests and led to the mass exodus of men avoiding the draft. However, the country's recruiting campaign is far from failure as enlistment centers work around the clock to call up some 300,000 reservists needed to beef up Russia's forces in Ukraine. I visited a draft office in Moscow and spoke with young guys who decided to stay and join Russia's war effort "

 

[shotshy]

So today, Putin declares martial law in the annexed parts of Ukrainian territory.
It seems that the Russian troops are withdrawing from the city of Kherson which they only annexed last week.
It doesn’t make any sense and it’s confusing what his actual plans are.
It’s openly reported that about 700,000 young men have managed to escape the country since conscription.
Also, where the hell is the Russian Airforce?
They seem to have gone awol.

 

[Whitstabletangerine]

So today, Putin declares martial law in the annexed parts of Ukrainian territory.
It seems that the Russian troops are withdrawing from the city of Kherson which they only annexed last week.
It doesn’t make any sense and it’s confusing what his actual plans are.
It’s openly reported that about 700,000 young men have managed to escape the country since conscription.
Also, where the hell is the Russian Airforce?
They seem to have gone awol.

I believe they have suffered substantial losses of aircraft and have now turned their attenetion to drones.

 

[jokerman]

Probably an effective Ukrainian AA umbrella accounts for the absence of the air force plus they are trying to get the job done with cheap drones. In terms of thinking about the unthinkable, I hear one line of thought in Washington is that if Russia lets off one demonstration tactical nuclear weapon, the US replies with one, and then "allows" the Russians one more to show they are not deterred -but then everyone stops. It is surreal but I suppose it has to be thought about unless one simply gives way to nuclear threats. From the same sources, though, comes the line that the Poles blew the pipelines with US support and training. I still think that's a load of bollox. The prize is so small relative to the risk.

The Russians have got themselves into a terrible mess -draftees shooting each other and recruiters committing "suicide". Annexing territory which they either don't control or proceed to lose, and the brightest and best leaving the country. They say we are drifting towards a world war, but it is not a drift. It is Moscow losing, escalating to the next level, losing at that, and then escalating again.

Their best hope is to keep their nerve, take their licks, and bet on Europe going soft this winter and/or Trump getting back eventually. But that's not a strategy anymore than is our hoping Putin gets replaced by someone sensible. Hope is not a strategy. Many of the voters in Western Europe on both the left and the right may want to fold, but most people accept the straight story about who started all this and why they have to be stopped and pushed back.

 

[shotshy]

There doesn’t seem to be much appetite for capitulation from the people of Europe.
If anything, views are hardening every time the Russians bomb civilians.
They obviously don’t think they can win on the battlefield so are going for a Scorched Earth which worked in Syria.
The main difference being that Syria didn’t have the western resources to fight back

 

[Whitstabletangerine]

Both Aleppo in Syria and Grozny the Chechian city both flattened by the Russians, just hope the same does not occur in Kyiv.

 

[Jerryattrick]

There doesn’t seem to be much appetite for capitulation from the people of Europe.
If anything, views are hardening every time the Russians bomb civilians.
They obviously don’t think they can win on the battlefield so are going for a Scorched Earth which worked in Syria.
The main difference being that Syria didn’t have the western resources to fight back

did not work in syria. Maybe because Russia were not fighting syria as they were allies. Syrian rebels (inc isis) were supplied by the west.

depends how you look at it lol.

 

[mehmets_curlies]

Russia has an army of 1.1 million
He's talking bollocks , to the millions taking it all in !

I agree with you. I doubt very much that Putin has sent all of his forces to the Ukraine. I would guess that he has kept a large amount, and the better quality ones, in Russia. I don't think he cares if it ends up being a long drawn out affair in the Ukraine. There is more and more damage being caused there with minimal impact on Russia or the Russian people (at least those with power and money). Perhaps sanctions will eventually tell on these people and they will push him to find a way out.

 

[Gilles Lingam]

 

[shotshy]

Doesn’t seem to be going the way that Russia and the Putin apologists thought it would, does it?
From a four day special military operation to humiliation and probably defeat.
Half a million young men of military age leave the country.
Another two hundred thousand have simply gone off the radar.
Probable evacuation from Kherson the only major city that they managed to occupy.
I can potentially see Russia losing Crimea if Ukraine decides to push on.
I wonder how many young men driving around Russia with Z emblazoned on their cars six months ago are shitting themselves in a trench now?

 

[jokerman]

Crikey, that’s more than half a day’s work for Trussteng.

very roughly three times the annual net contribution in 2015

 

[jokerman]

Doesn’t seem to be going the way that Russia and the Putin apologists thought it would, does it?
From a four day special military operation to humiliation and probably defeat.
Half a million young men of military age leave the country.
Another two hundred thousand have simply gone off the radar.
Probable evacuation from Kherson the only major city that they managed to occupy.
I can potentially see Russia losing Crimea if Ukraine decides to push on.
I wonder how many young men driving around Russia with Z emblazoned on their cars six months ago are shitting themselves in a trench now?

Time was the Russians would hold a position at any cost -Port Arthur '05; Brest Litovsk '41, Sevastopol '42, and Stalingrad '42-3, to delay the other lot, but this pull back makes sense. I doubt the Ukrainians can operate at the scale necessary to cross the Dnieper and take the approaches to Crimea. I suspect Russian strategy has been reduced to holding on longer than Ukraine and its allies can keep going. They are masters of the frozen dispute. It is a pathetic return on their original plan as it leaves them broken, weakened and shamed, but there is sense to a strategy based on growing Western fatigue.

Sooner or later, serious negotiations will begin, but that's like saying sooner or later the rain will stop, when the important question is when. And sooner or later, the salient solution will emerge: Crimea to Moscow; Donbas to Kiev, and the West rebuilds Ukraine. But no one's near accepting that yet.

 

[Jerryattrick]

Time was the Russians would hold a position at any cost -Port Arthur '05; Brest Litovsk '41, Sevastopol '42, and Stalingrad '42-3, to delay the other lot, but this pull back makes sense. I doubt the Ukrainians can operate at the scale necessary to cross the Dnieper and take the approaches to Crimea. I suspect Russian strategy has been reduced to holding on longer than Ukraine and its allies can keep going. They are masters of the frozen dispute. It is a pathetic return on their original plan as it leaves them broken, weakened and shamed, but there is sense to a strategy based on growing Western fatigue.

Sooner or later, serious negotiations will begin, but that's like saying sooner or later the rain will stop, when the important question is when. And sooner or later, the salient solution will emerge: Crimea to Moscow; Donbas to Kiev, and the West rebuilds Ukraine. But no one's near accepting that yet.

i like the 'west builds ukraine'. Follow the money lol.

 

[shotshy]

i like the 'west builds ukraine'. Follow the money lol.

I suspect that Russia will willingly leave Kherson, surrender it back to Ukraine, then literally bomb the fuck out of it like they did in Mariupol.
The big game changer from six months ago is the American supplied Himars.
They can easily take out Russian artillery from miles away.
If the ammo keeps coming, Ukraine will keep pushing.
I was reading today in a financial periodical that Russia has lost//misplaced about 1.5 million young educated workers.
Some as the war started, some because of mobilisation and some because of conscription.
It’s having a significant effect on the economy.

 

[shotshy]

Kherson re occupied by Ukraine.
It’s the beginning of the end of the war.
It’s surprising how quickly the Russians left.
Instead of a systematic withdrawal, it seems that they just legged it.
I suspect that the Ukrainian troops will find a lot of abandoned equipment which they will use to push on to Crimea.

 

[nibbles]

Kherson re occupied by Ukraine.
It’s the beginning of the end of the war.
It’s surprising how quickly the Russians left.
Instead of a systematic withdrawal, it seems that they just legged it.
I suspect that the Ukrainian troops will find a lot of abandoned equipment which they will use to push on to Crimea.

I hope it’s that simple but I have my doubts.

 

[PhilK66]

Kherson re occupied by Ukraine.
It’s the beginning of the end of the war.
It’s surprising how quickly the Russians left.
Instead of a systematic withdrawal, it seems that they just legged it.
I suspect that the Ukrainian troops will find a lot of abandoned equipment which they will use to push on to Crimea.

Booby trapped abandoned equipment and bodies too I fear. I and my many Ukrainian friends still in the country do not share the view that Ukraine is winning the war. Some battles yes but not the war.

 

[jokerman]

Booby trapped abandoned equipment and bodies too I fear. I and my many Ukrainian friends still in the country do not share the view that Ukraine is winning the war. Some battles yes but not the war.

But they’re further way from N/Mikolaev now and less able to push for Odessa. Although your town took a hit last night, I see.

Ukraine is paying a terrible price for its independence, but its people still seem willing to pay it.

 

[shotshy]

But they’re further way from N/Mikolaev now and less able to push for Odessa. Although your town took a hit last night, I see.

Ukraine is paying a terrible price for its independence, but its people still seem willing to pay it.

It’s admirable.
Putin’s gamble was total capitulation and installing his puppet government.
That’s gone well, hasn’t it ?
DeNazify and Demilitarisation ?
Now it’s hang on for what you’ve got, which looks increasingly unlikely.

 

[Gills 58]

It’s admirable.
Putin’s gamble was total capitulation and installing his puppet government.
That’s gone well, hasn’t it ?
DeNazify and Demilitarisation ?
Now it’s hang on for what you’ve got, which looks increasingly unlikely.

I would caution against this level of optimism. I'd be delighted to be wrong but don't assume Russia are on the brink of collapsing.

Jokerman will know better than me but will the Yanks be so willing to fund Ukraine if the Republicans take the House?