Ukraine Situation | Page 61 | Vital Football

Ukraine Situation

Gills 58 said:
I would caution against this level of optimism. I'd be delighted to be wrong but don't assume Russia are on the brink of collapsing.

Jokerman will know better than me but will the Yanks be so willing to fund Ukraine if the Republicans take the House?
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I’m not overly optimistic mate.
I was talking with my cousin last night who works at CGHQ and he said that Russian media is reporting the evacuation as a success. A kind of Dunkirk moment.
The point really is that Russia is not winning and probably the best they can hope for now is keeping the Ukrainian territory that they held before February.
Phil will know much better than us but my impression is that the majority in Crimea are content to be Russian controlled. Also those left in the Donbass were content with Russian control but that’s moving, given that Russian control has bought them nothing but agro.
It’s understandable that Ukraine want all of their territory back but eventually, some compromise will need to be made unless the political situation changes in Moscow.

My cousin told me that in the two big cities, Moscow and St Petersburg, the war was hardly mentioned until recently. As if nothing was going on. Also very few conscripts from the cities.
Mainly from poor rural areas.

The brain drain is causing concern among the chattering classes.
About a million disappeared from the workplace apparently.
 
I think the smart money is on there being a “war coalition” of republicans and democrats with a majority on most votes. If the high tide of Trumpismo has passed, then a consensus around US global engagement may be re-emerging. Jerry’d tell us no surprise there!
 
shotshy said:
I’m not overly optimistic mate.
I was talking with my cousin last night who works at CGHQ and he said that Russian media is reporting the evacuation as a success. A kind of Dunkirk moment.
The point really is that Russia is not winning and probably the best they can hope for now is keeping the Ukrainian territory that they held before February.
Phil will know much better than us but my impression is that the majority in Crimea are content to be Russian controlled. Also those left in the Donbass were content with Russian control but that’s moving, given that Russian control has bought them nothing but agro.
It’s understandable that Ukraine want all of their territory back but eventually, some compromise will need to be made unless the political situation changes in Moscow.

My cousin told me that in the two big cities, Moscow and St Petersburg, the war was hardly mentioned until recently. As if nothing was going on. Also very few conscripts from the cities.
Mainly from poor rural areas.

The brain drain is causing concern among the chattering classes.
About a million disappeared from the workplace apparently.
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Ukraine has won several battles but not the war. Putin has various total war measures up his sleeve unfortunately and like in all despotic countries individuals don't matter. Elena would agree that the majority of Crimea prefers to be russian and has enjoyed the income from russian tourists.

In her area of birth, Nikolaev (Mikolaev) the population is divided. Although Elena lives and works in Moscow she is proudly Ukrainian and moving to Russia 20 years ago was a necessity for her university education and to earn money to pay for it as a fashion model. Her widowed mother, stranded in Nikolaev, is also proudly Ukrainian but Elena's brother and aunt are Putin fans and want to see their region and indeed the whole eastern part of Ukraine as part of Russia.

Even if Zelensky could be persuaded to come to the negotiating table there are two big stumbling blocks quite apart from territorial concessions: war crime investigations and reparations.

It is an awful situation that has ruined and cost many lives. I cannot return to Moscow any time soon but by employing an Ukrainian lady refugee and her daughter to help around the house I at least feel I am doing something.

Elena has noticed the effect of sanctions with empty shelves in supermarkets and rising prices. The enormous Metro hypermarket which I know very well used to stock a wide range of foreign goods but is now severely depleted according to Elena. Muskovites do know what is going on and might discuss it with very close friends or family but to do otherwise is asking for trouble.

To use a football analogy it's a no score draw at the moment and neither leader would survive after conceding too much with thousands of their service personnel and citizens dead.

I apologise for my long winded comments but that's how I and Elena see it.
 
PhilK66 said:
Ukraine has won several battles but not the war. Putin has various total war measures up his sleeve unfortunately and like in all despotic countries individuals don't matter. Elena would agree that the majority of Crimea prefers to be russian and has enjoyed the income from russian tourists.

In her area of birth, Nikolaev (Mikolaev) the population is divided. Although Elena lives and works in Moscow she is proudly Ukrainian and moving to Russia 20 years ago was a necessity for her university education and to earn money to pay for it as a fashion model. Her widowed mother, stranded in Nikolaev, is also proudly Ukrainian but Elena's brother and aunt are Putin fans and want to see their region and indeed the whole eastern part of Ukraine as part of Russia.

Even if Zelensky could be persuaded to come to the negotiating table there are two big stumbling blocks quite apart from territorial concessions: war crime investigations and reparations.

It is an awful situation that has ruined and cost many lives. I cannot return to Moscow any time soon but by employing an Ukrainian lady refugee and her daughter to help around the house I at least feel I am doing something.

Elena has noticed the effect of sanctions with empty shelves in supermarkets and rising prices. The enormous Metro hypermarket which I know very well used to stock a wide range of foreign goods but is now severely depleted according to Elena. Muskovites do know what is going on and might discuss it with very close friends or family but to do otherwise is asking for trouble.

To use a football analogy it's a no score draw at the moment and neither leader would survive after conceding too much with thousands of their service personnel and citizens dead.

I apologise for my long winded comments but that's how I and Elena see it.
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Your "long-winded" comments are appreciated. No apologies needed!
 
PuB said:
Breaking news at the moment that 2 Russian missiles have hit inside Poland

Fuck.
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So the question is are the Russians really that bad that they can't even hit the right country?It does seem a alarming escalation of the conflict especially crazy when they are already getting beaten by the Ukrainian forces.
 
chris who said:
So the question is are the Russians really that bad that they can't even hit the right country?It does seem a alarming escalation of the conflict especially crazy when they are already getting beaten by the Ukrainian forces.
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Or are they testing NATO’s resolve?

A few months ago President Biden warned Putin ‘not to touch one inch’ of any NATO country.
 
chris who said:
So the question is are the Russians really that bad that they can't even hit the right country?It does seem a alarming escalation of the conflict especially crazy when they are already getting beaten by the Ukrainian forces.
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To be fair I think we and the Americans managed to bomb Switzerland a few times in WW2. Perhaps under the sanctions Russia can't use Google maps.
 
chris who said:
So the question is are the Russians really that bad that they can't even hit the right country?.
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Nearly all missiles have their own guidance system and they are not all 100% accurate, a rogue missile could easily have crossed the border into Poland, it is up to NATO ot decide whether it was intentional or an accident re the respose although there was always the possibility that
such an incident could happen.
 
Do you remember when a Scud killed 20 or so Americans in a Saudi base, and it turned out to be Scud fragments from a Patriot hit? They estimate 300,000 French casualties caused by their own artillery in the FWW.

Very disappointed at Zelensky playing this as a reason/excuse for a NATO escalation. It’may not be a big story.
 
Thought you might like to read an email from my former colleague in Dnipro, Ukraine:

"Dear Phil, thank you very much for your kind attention.
We sit regularly in the shelter because russians send missiles and shells to our city almost every day. There are special periods when we don't have electricity and heating. But it is better than to be under russians occupants.
We have bought a lot of devices to facilitate our life such as power banks, lamps with accumulators, candles for 60 hours, lighters.
Hope to survive this winter. It is not very cold now, plus 6 but promised plus 11 during weekends.
Kind regards from all the family.
Natalia"

Meanwhile in Nikolaev Elena's mamochka Vera has electricity intermittently but no gas and faces up to an hour's queue for water. She relies on a two plate plug in hob for cooking.

I cannot imagine what it is going to be like when winter really sets in.
 
It will be very tough, but marginally less tough for people who are used to winters and dealing with the cold. I was working on getting cars started in -2F this morning. Zero comparison to what your partner’s family are going through. No one shooting at me and a warm indoors to retreat into -but the cold and snow in themselves are less daunting than to those not used to them.
 
Crikey, is there anything Russia won`t do to "win" this conflict ?

Blowing up the dam at Kakhovka might slow down a Ukrainian counter-offensive but at what cost and could the Russian aggressors care less ? Thousands of Ukrainians face perilous floods and there are other serious collateral implications.

The War Crimes are stacking up - Putin and his inner core need taking down - asap.
 
LancsGordoRoad said:
Crikey, is there anything Russia won`t do to "win" this conflict ?

Blowing up the dam at Kakhovka might slow down a Ukrainian counter-offensive but at what cost and could the Russian aggressors care less ? Thousands of Ukrainians face perilous floods and there are other serious collateral implications.

The War Crimes are stacking up - Putin and his inner core need taking down - asap.
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Maybe they didn't do it .....
"Vladimir Leontyev, the Russian-installed mayor of the occupied settlement of Nova Kakhovka near the damaged dam blamed Ukraine for the incident, which he said followed "successive strikes" by Ukrainian troops, Russian state news agency Tass reported.
Ukrainian hydro power company Ukrhydroenergo said in a statement that the hydroelectric power plant's engine room "has been destroyed completely" and that the plant "cannot be restored."
According to a preliminary forecast, the Kakhovka reservoir is expected to be operational within four days, it added.
"An uncontrolled decrease in the reservoir level is an additional threat to the temporarily occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant," Ukrhydroenergo said, noting that water from the reservoir is needed for the nuclear power plant's turbine capacitors and safety systems.
Russian-installed officials said there was no danger yet to the nuclear plant, which is Europe's largest."
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-russia-dam-nova-kakhova-flood-1804649
 
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