Ukraine Situation | Page 7 | Vital Football

Ukraine Situation

jokerman said:
Sanctions impose costs on the target taking a course of action. They cannot stop someone taking a course of action if they are determined. So they can't save Ukraine. Over time, however, they can weaken the target and give their immediate rivals an incentive to do something about them. So they might contribute to a change in Russia eventually.

Saying they are all as bad as each other is wrong and damaging. It is wrong because -murderously hypocritical as liberal, capitalist democracies have been on many occasions- they are open to criticism and change, and their leaders share some of the values which lead us to criticize them. Johnson and all around him, for all their faults, are not in the same league as Putin in terms of moral deficiencies.

Saying they're all a bad as each other is damaging because it falsely absolves us from making judgements in particular contexts. In this context, there can be no doubt about who is most responsible for taking a course of action which could lead to the deaths of thousands of people. From our various standpoints, we need to acknowledge this and think about what is to be done.

Times like this put the question posed by anarchists and others about the state and the states system as a source of our problems into sharp relief. Looking at the logic of move and counter move which which have occurred in this crisis and other crises, leads people to thinking there's got to be a better way of organizing ourselves. Such reflections provide little guide as to what to do right now, however. Declaring the game to be stupid and evil, and walking away from the table, leaves the game and the consequences of winning it to those who keep playing.

Speaking pragmatically, Ukraine is probably lost for now. The costs of trying to "save" it far outweigh the benefits of trying to do so. The Baltic states depend on Mr. Putin being deterred by the "tripwire" of NATO forces. They are not enough to stop him. Their job is to die, if he attacks, so he knows how he is raising the stakes. It is time for the great powers of Europe to start taking the task of defending themselves seriously. Macron's and Sholtz's efforts, hailed as sophisticated and nuanced in contrast to the clumsy Anglos, have yielded nothing, have possibly fed Putin's sense that the West can be divided, and have shown how weak European influence is. This is not a problem so long as the US is still doing the heavy lifting. However, Europe can't rely on the US anymore, and its countries should not want to rely on the US. Step up Germany, France and Britain.
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Good post, jokerman.

As Bakunin said, "We are firmly convinced that the most imperfect republic is a thousand times better than the most enlightened monarchy."
 
One of the few correct things that Trump said was that it was ridiculous for Europe to expect the USA to pick up the bill for protection.
Only Poland and the U.K. fulfill their financial obligation to NATO.
The others are freeloading .
The chickens are coming home to roost because Merkel put all her eggs in one basket to become overly reliant on Russia for energy.
Coupled with being unwilling to pay the price for defence, they now find themselves in a bad position both politically and financially.
Ukraine is lost because it’s not in NATO but Europe should immediately and very publicly begin bolstering troops on it’s eastern flank.
Maybe starting with a few war games.
NATO’s best hope is that Ukraine strongly resists and it’s a lot harder for Putin than his intelligence said it would be.
 
Putin holds a good hand all the time he's dealing the cards but he's by no means invulnerable. He's far more likely to react to signs of opposition, or fatigue at home than pronouncements from Western leaders. I heard it suggested on R4 that sanctions might have limited value in the short term but might bite deeper over time by preventing transfers and sharing of technology. The commentator thought this had been a significant factor in the demise of Soviet Russia.

We need to defend ourselves for sure and the development of the EU has made us realise that Lithiania, Latvia, Romania et al are really not so very far away culturally, or in distance. Every bit as important we need to keep a flow of information to all those on the other side, who wish to hear, or can be reached. There is propaganda, and we need to be in that game, and then there is the outright nonsense of RT.
 
shotshy said:
Ukraine is lost because it’s not in NATO but Europe should immediately and very publicly begin bolstering troops on it’s eastern flank.
Maybe starting with a few war games.
NATO’s best hope is that Ukraine strongly resists and it’s a lot harder for Putin than his intelligence said it would be.
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Sadly, I'm starting to agree with that. We acted too late and I blame the US, us and Nato, but more than anything, I blame the likes of Germany and France who are still powers, but haven't done their bit to secure Europe.

Collectively, we should have stood up to Putin long ago. How many chances have we had? Twice using chemical weapons (an act of war) on our soil and murdering British citizens and residents, taking down a plane over Ukraine and murdering hundreds of Dutch and other citizens, illegally invading and annexing Crimea and other sovereign Ukraine territory and various cyber attacks on the West and attempts at interference with elections and democracy. We should have got Ukraine signed up to Nato ages ago and had our troops camped on the Ukranian-Russian border long before Putin had amasses hundreds of thousands of troops there.

It is now too late. I think our best bet now is to bolster the border on current Nato nations to repel any further incursions such as into Estonia. We also need to get (if they want to - and given the Russian threat, I am sure they would now) other neighbouring threatened countries signed up to Nato (Finland, Georgia etc.) And if the crisis in Ukraine does abate (probably because Russia runs out of money to sustain troops on the border), we should use the hiatus to get the Ukraine signed up as a Nato member and get ready to be in a position to mobilise our troops to prevent a repeat.

As many sanctions as possible on Russia to make the Russian people suffer are needed (and I don't necessary mean ill-will on the Russian people, but sadly, due to Russian state propaganda, that's the only way they'll get the message. Also, we (the West) need to continue (and up) the provision of as much heavy weaponry to the Ukraine as possible and send as many Russian soldiers home in body bags as possible.

Also, one final thing we could do, which hasn't been mentioned, is blockade the Russian enclave, Kaliningrad, and ensure that nothing goes in and out of there from the Motherland.

I personally accept that a military intervention in Ukraine will be very difficult, so we have to do everything and anything but to make life hard for Putin and Russia.
 
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Also, another option we should not rule out is mounting massive cyber attacks on Russia. They’ve done it to us and western technology is far superior, so am sure we could reek mayhem on the Russian economy and way of life through that means, in addition to the other proposals above.
 
PuB said:
I’m fully aware of how much cash Putin has, like I said I don’t know how you’d put in anything that would hurt *him*. But I fear that’s all he would listen to.

He would literally laugh in the face of sanctions, even imposed on those closest to him. He does not care.
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I doubt he even knows. But, if you`re certain, I can find a phone number for you - or perhaps, just ring Crime Stoppers. Sorry, PuB, couldn`t resist
:sorry:
 
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Despite my facetious post about Putin`s cash, perhaps there are some, especially some politicians, who might want to re-calibrate their obsession-meters and consider what`s happening in Ukraine as a reality wake up call.
 
SteveTreacle said:
Sadly, I'm starting to agree with that. We acted too late and I blame the US, us and Nato, but more than anything, I blame the likes of Germany and France who are still powers, but haven't done their bit to secure Europe.

Collectively, we should have stood up to Putin long ago. How many chances have we had? Twice using chemical weapons (an act of war) on our soil and murdering British citizens and residents, taking down a plane over Ukraine and murdering hundreds of Dutch and other citizens, illegally invading and annexing Crimea and other sovereign Ukraine territory and various cyber attacks on the West and attempts at interference with elections and democracy. We should have got Ukraine signed up to Nato ages ago and had our troops camped on the Ukranian-Russian border long before Putin had amasses hundreds of thousands of troops there.

It is now too late. I think our best bet now is to bolster the border on current Nato nations to repel any further incursions such as into Estonia. We also need to get (if they want to - and given the Russian threat, I am sure they would now) other neighbouring threatened countries signed up to Nato (Finland, Georgia etc.) And if the crisis in Ukraine does abate (probably because Russia runs out of money to sustain troops on the border), we should use the hiatus to get the Ukraine signed up as a Nato member and get ready to be in a position to mobilise our troops to prevent a repeat.

As many sanctions as possible on Russia to make the Russian people suffer are needed (and I don't necessary mean ill-will on the Russian people, but sadly, due to Russian state propaganda, that's the only way they'll get the message. Also, we (the West) need to continue (and up) the provision of as much heavy weaponry to the Ukraine as possible and send as many Russian soldiers home in body bags as possible.

Also, one final thing we could do, which hasn't been mentioned, is blockade the Russian enclave, Kaliningrad, and ensure that nothing goes in and out of there from the Motherland.

I personally accept that a military intervention in Ukraine will be very difficult, so we have to do everything and anything but to make life hard for Putin and Russia.
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I can share your outrage and wish to do something Steve but we have to be realistic in what we can and will do. Dissing European colleagues doesn't help and certainly not at this juncture. Germany has made a move on Nordstream, a move that costs them dear. I'm not so impressed with our limited sanctions, announced early for maximum publicity. I hope we move much further soon.

It's not a good look to overdo the tough talk and posturing only to see the outcome you declared unacceptable occur days, or weeks later. This is a long game.
 
jogills said:
I can share your outrage and wish to do something Steve but we have to be realistic in what we can and will do. Dissing European colleagues doesn't help and certainly not at this juncture. Germany has made a move on Nordstream, a move that costs them dear. I'm not so impressed with our limited sanctions, announced early for maximum publicity. I hope we move much further soon.

It's not a good look to overdo the tough talk and posturing only to see the outcome you declared unacceptable occur days, or weeks later. This is a long game.
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Don't disagree, Joe, but I am criticising all of the West (including us and the Americans) in allowing this to happen. In short, I think we need to find ways to make the Russians and Putin suffer given that I don't think we'll be able to help the Ukrainians militarily - or at least directly anyway.
 
SteveTreacle said:
'Also, one final thing we could do, which hasn't been mentioned, is blockade the Russian enclave, Kaliningrad, and ensure that nothing goes in and out of there from the Motherland'
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Impossible to oversee: Kaliningrad is the home of Russia's 'Baltic Fleet', and has a few large army and air force bases, if only to discourage neighbouring nations (Poland and Lithuania, both NATO members) should they dare countenance invading the exclave. It's for this very reason why you need to be careful why and how you take photos when you're out and about in Kaliningrad as it is the sort of place where a western tourist might accidentally be considered to be a 'spy' in the wrong situation.

And I nearly forgot; Russia has moved a Fleet of MiG-31s with nuke-carrying capability to Kaliningrad in the last fortnight, probably for the purpose I mentioned earlier.

Not only that, the aforementioned military bases have quite a few missiles and missile launchers that would also prevent any nearby nations from blockading/invading.
 
Buddha said:
His speech today. Fucking hell, the man is deranged and has so much power. It's absolutely terrifying.

He must be stopped.
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I think his comments about Ukraine aren't risk of being over-interpreted. What I took Putin to mean was that, were it not for Nikita's Kruschev decisions to 'award' ths Crimea and Donbass Oblasts, then part of Soviet Russia, to Soviet Ukraine back in the 1950s, then they would still be part of Russia today. Hence why the separatists in Luhansk and Donetsk had popular support back in 2014/2015. Probably not now though, given the sanctions and catastrophic economic losses to the area and the destruction of everyday life and property that has rendered the region a ghost-like war zone since 2014. But still, I digress.


But the crux of the matter is that this was a part of Ukraine that was very much different from Kiev. Not just because it is mainly Russian-speaking, but because it is (or was) very blue collar, with a lot of coal-miners and steel workers. Totally different from the comparatively wealthy west of the country in Ukrainian-speaking Lviv and Kiev.

And up until 2014 there was industrial decline, a general population decline, and the city was falling apart. Unemployment and crime was out of control. It was no different to Detroit. No wonder why people were nostalgic for a return of the Soviet Union and Putin, Russia, and the Russian-backed rebels seized the opportunity back then (in 2014), and are now going all-out.

To Putin and Russia, the Donbass and Crimea aren't in Ukraine nor Ukrainian except because of a historical accident.
 
All this comes the day after Putin spent over an hour and half on the phone to President Macron assuring him that he had no intention of putting boots into Ukraine.
He is totally untrustworthy and anyone who suspected different cannot deny the facts.
Russia will become a pariah for a generation.
To humiliate a leading Nato member like that ups the stakes dramatically.
If only the USA had some leadership .
 
shotshy said:
All this comes the day after Putin spent over an hour and half on the phone to President Macron assuring him that he had no intention of putting boots into Ukraine.
He is totally untrustworthy and anyone who suspected different cannot deny the facts.
Russia will become a pariah for a generation.
To humiliate a leading Nato member like that ups the stakes dramatically.
If only the USA had some leadership .
Click to expand...

But to Putin, the Donbass and Crimea aren't Ukraine, nor in Ukraine (rightly or wrongly).

That's Putin's get-out card in all this (or so he thinks).
 
jokerman said:
Sanctions impose costs on the target taking a course of action. They cannot stop someone taking a course of action if they are determined. So they can't save Ukraine. Over time, however, they can weaken the target and give their immediate rivals an incentive to do something about them. So they might contribute to a change in Russia eventually.

Saying they are all as bad as each other is wrong and damaging. It is wrong because -murderously hypocritical as liberal, capitalist democracies have been on many occasions- they are open to criticism and change, and their leaders share some of the values which lead us to criticize them. Johnson and all around him, for all their faults, are not in the same league as Putin in terms of moral deficiencies.

Saying they're all a bad as each other is damaging because it falsely absolves us from making judgements in particular contexts. In this context, there can be no doubt about who is most responsible for taking a course of action which could lead to the deaths of thousands of people. From our various standpoints, we need to acknowledge this and think about what is to be done.

Times like this put the question posed by anarchists and others about the state and the states system as a source of our problems into sharp relief. Looking at the logic of move and counter move which which have occurred in this crisis and other crises, leads people to thinking there's got to be a better way of organizing ourselves. Such reflections provide little guide as to what to do right now, however. Declaring the game to be stupid and evil, and walking away from the table, leaves the game and the consequences of winning it to those who keep playing.

Speaking pragmatically, Ukraine is probably lost for now. The costs of trying to "save" it far outweigh the benefits of trying to do so. The Baltic states depend on Mr. Putin being deterred by the "tripwire" of NATO forces. They are not enough to stop him. Their job is to die, if he attacks, so he knows how he is raising the stakes. It is time for the great powers of Europe to start taking the task of defending themselves seriously. Macron's and Sholtz's efforts, hailed as sophisticated and nuanced in contrast to the clumsy Anglos, have yielded nothing, have possibly fed Putin's sense that the West can be divided, and have shown how weak European influence is. This is not a problem so long as the US is still doing the heavy lifting. However, Europe can't rely on the US anymore, and its countries should not want to rely on the US. Step up Germany, France and Britain.
Click to expand...

I don't think he will dare attack any NATO nation. He might have been giving it the billy-big-b0ll0cks about Article 5 and being a nuclear power 'that outperforms other counties in some respects' the other week but he knows deep down that Russia would be totally f*cked if he dared invade, say, Latvia, Poland, or Lithuania. That's why even the American embassy etc have relocated to Lviv on the Polish border.

Because even Putin wouldn't miscalculate and dare stray too far to a NATO border where there are American troops/bases.
 
HarrowGill said:
I don't think he will dare attack any NATO nation. He might have been giving it the billy-big-b0ll0cks about Article 5 and being a nuclear power 'that outperforms other counties in some respects' the other week but he knows deep down that Russia would be totally f*cked if he dared invade, say, Latvia, Poland, or Lithuania. That's why even the American embassy etc have relocated to Lviv on the Polish border.

Because even Putin wouldn't miscalculate and dare stray too far to a NATO border where there are American troops/bases.
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That's the bet!
 
So we’ve imposed sanctions on 3 minor individuals, and 5 fairly insignificant banks. Let’s hit them with all the force of the west…

(The bit about Roman Abramovich already being sanctioned was another Boris parliamentary lie by the way, hasn’t been and never has been).
 
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