#COVID19 | Page 1076 | Vital Football

#COVID19

Basha73 said:
But the fact remains that they are in hospital and have COVID. Fair enough if the hospital send them home and rebook what they were going to do but then they would be vilified for sending someone home who was ill…
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Yes.

But they were in hospital anyway. Another patient who needs it hasn't lost that bed because of COVID as the hypothetical patient in question was already in hospital for something else.

The point of the stats are to tell us how much pressure COVID is putting on NHS beds and capacity and how many are getting seriously ill to the point of needing hospital treatment.

In these cases, COVID isn't putting any pressure on beds, as the bed was already being filled for a "normal" ailment. In most such cases, the patient won't even need any treatment for COVID; that is not why they are in hospital and unless they are unlucky, their symptoms will remain mild.
 
sighh, all these months, years even and still people cant just be at the basics.
the real basics, close the borders, wash hands, keep distance, wear masks, then get on with things knowing we are all doing what we can. Then noone can be blamed for being wreckless, we can all be on the same page doing it for the benefit of everyone else. Theres nothing in those basics that justifies non conformists, because they do no harm to anybody.

Essentially what the government have actually done is both make the virus worse AND wreck the economy. There was an option to save both with the basics, or even select one over the other, but to fook them both with the public having to pay for thier wasted billions in doing so is, well, a truly epic failure from everybody in politics
 
Pope John XXIII said:
Yes.

But they were in hospital anyway. Another patient who needs it hasn't lost that bed because of COVID as the hypothetical patient in question was already in hospital for something else.

The point of the stats are to tell us how much pressure COVID is putting on NHS beds and capacity and how many are getting seriously ill to the point of needing hospital treatment.

In these cases, COVID isn't putting any pressure on beds, as the bed was already being filled for a "normal" ailment. In most such cases, the patient won't even need any treatment for COVID; that is not why they are in hospital and unless they are unlucky, their symptoms will remain mild.
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They may not need treatment but they still need to be in hospital for whatever they were in for but that bed may have to be on a different ward because the person has COVID which means the potential pressure is still there.

The figures we get are the high level figures. That’s because all we really need to know is the number of people in hospital that have COVID. Whether the person is in hospital purely because of COVID or because they have an ailment and COVID is largely irrelevant as the bed is still taken.

Once you get to the level of individual hospitals those figures will be broken down further to establish ‘pressure’ points etc. and those hospitals will be doing this on a daily basis to ensure they have as many beds as possible for COVID or otherwise.

Remember as well that if someone goes in for cancer treatment but is found to have COVID they can’t be put on the cancer ward as that would be lethal.

To me this has been reported in such a way as to make it look like some huge conspiracy to over-inflate the figures when the reality is that they have used the reporting methodology that was requested at Parliamentary level.
 
Basha73 said:
They may not need treatment but they still need to be in hospital for whatever they were in for but that bed may have to be on a different ward because the person has COVID which means the potential pressure is still there.

The figures we get are the high level figures. That’s because all we really need to know is the number of people in hospital that have COVID. Whether the person is in hospital purely because of COVID or because they have an ailment and COVID is largely irrelevant as the bed is still taken.

Once you get to the level of individual hospitals those figures will be broken down further to establish ‘pressure’ points etc. and those hospitals will be doing this on a daily basis to ensure they have as many beds as possible for COVID or otherwise.

To me this has been reported in such a way as to make it look like some huge conspiracy to over-inflate the figures when the reality is that they have used the reporting methodology that was requested at Parliamentary level.
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I don't think it's a conspiracy at all and I don't expect hospitals to be able to make the distinction between patients in for COVID or with COVID.

But I think it's wrong to say the distinction is irrelevant.

Of course a patient with COVID adds some additional pressures.

But these figures are being reported to the public and, to an extent, inform policy.

In the first instance (reporting to the public) it gives a false impression of how many serious cases of COVID there are. And it gives media justification to scientists seeking further lockdowns. We have already heard scientists citing the "worrying" number of admissions to hospital for COVID. This leak suggests that up to half of those patients were not admitted for COVID at all.

It's no wonder the public are confused about vaccine efficacy
 
The story continues…

The leaked data – covering all NHS trusts in England – show that, as of last Thursday, just 44 per cent of patients classed as being hospitalised with Covid had tested positive by the time they were admitted.

The majority of cases were not detected until patients underwent standard Covid tests, carried out on everyone admitted to hospital for any reason.

Overall, 56 per cent of Covid hospitalisations fell into this category.

Crucially, this group does not distinguish between those admitted because of severe illness, later found to be caused by the virus, and those in hospital for different reasons who might otherwise never have known that they had picked it up.

Last month, health officials instructed NHS trusts to provide "a breakdown of the current stock of Covid patients", splitting it into those who were in hospital primarily because of the virus and those there for other reasons. So far, NHS England has failed to publish this data.

However, the patterns shown in the leaked figures – with the vast majority of hospital Covid cases being diagnosed after admission, in some cases weeks later.

The breakdown of daily Covid hospital diagnoses shows that of more than 780 hospitalisations dated last Thursday, 44 per cent involved people who tested positive in the 14 days before hospital entry.

A further 43 per cent were made within two days of admission, with 13 per cent made in the days and weeks that followed, including those likely to have caught the virus in hospital.

Prof Carl Heneghan, director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said: "This data is incredibly important, and it should be published on an ongoing basis.

"When people hear about hospitalisations with Covid, they will assume that Covid is the likely cause, but this data shows something quite different – this is about Covid being detected after tests were looking for it."

Prof Heneghan urged the Government to publish clearer data, including whether or not the virus was the primary cause of hospital admission.

"This needs to be fixed as a matter of urgency," he said, adding that the published data could lead the public "towards false conclusions", exaggerating the true levels of pressures on hospitals.
 
If ever the saying " a little knowledge is a dangerous thing" was seen to be the case then this pandemic has surely highlighted it. A government on the back foot from the start has from the start decided to be as open as possible with the release of information, figures of all kinds and scientific analysis. The general public in the main are just not qualified to take it in , analise it and make informed comment. A lot of unnecessary scare mongering has been the result.
 
jbacsta said:
If ever the saying " a little knowledge is a dangerous thing" was seen to be the case then this pandemic has surely highlighted it. A government on the back foot from the start has from the start decided to be as open as possible with the release of information, figures of all kinds and scientific analysis. The general public in the main are just not qualified to take it in , analise it and make informed comment. A lot of unnecessary scare mongering has been the result.
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Interesting article in the Telegraph. Another problem with the use of the phrase "with covid". Only 44% of admissions "with covid" had covid going into hospital. 43% were diagnosed within a couple of days, implying they were not in hospital BECAUSE of covid. 13% were diagnosed over two days (in some cases weeks) AFTER admittance meaning it was possible they had actually caught covid AFTER arriving in hospital.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...d-hospitalisations-tested-positive-admission/

More than half of Covid hospitalisations are patients who only tested positive after admission, leaked data reveal.

The figures suggest vast numbers are being classed as hospitalised by Covid when they were admitted with other ailments, with the virus picked up by routine testing.

Experts said it meant the national statistics, published daily on the government website and frequently referred to by ministers, may far overstate the levels of pressures on the NHS.

The leaked data – covering all NHS trusts in England – show that, as of last Thursday, just 44 per cent of patients classed as being hospitalised with Covid had tested positive by the time they were admitted.

The majority of cases were not detected until patients underwent standard Covid tests, carried out on everyone admitted to hospital for any reason.

Overall, 56 per cent of Covid hospitalisations fell into this category, the data, seen by The Telegraph, show.


Crucially, this group does not distinguish between those admitted because of severe illness, later found to be caused by the virus, and those in hospital for different reasons who might otherwise never have known that they had picked it up.
 
trickynumber5 said:
PCR testing down 22% in the last week might have something to do with it.
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The numbers fluctuate day by day and week by week, as I showed yesterday. Latest figures look much the same pattern as before, and the lowest testing days I could find were early July.

Testing will, of course, depend on people feeling they have the symptoms to come forward for a test.

People don't randomly turn up for PCR tests. They only book one if
a) they have already tested positive on LF or
b) they have symptoms.

If cases and transmission was down, you would expect to see less testing.

It can only be the other way round if we assume a change in behaviour
 
if up to 50% of people in hospital only got found by chance thats a lot of folk with a virus who are walking around spreading it and not testing themelves or isolating.. That would suiggest theres millions more cases than reported generally.. Been a few months now without a major change in the virus? More luck than judgment it seems, lets hope it stays that way
 
jbacsta said:
If ever the saying " a little knowledge is a dangerous thing" was seen to be the case then this pandemic has surely highlighted it. A government on the back foot from the start has from the start decided to be as open as possible with the release of information, figures of all kinds and scientific analysis. The general public in the main are just not qualified to take it in , analise it and make informed comment. A lot of unnecessary scare mongering has been the result.
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yeahh man, its actually only killed 4 million people so far in the world, nothing a few wars, tsunamis, drought and famine couldnt do over the course of a few years
 
paz1967 said:
if up to 50% of people in hospital only got found by chance thats a lot of folk with a virus who are walking around spreading it and not testing themelves or isolating.. That would suiggest theres millions more cases than reported generally.. Been a few months now without a major change in the virus? More luck than judgment it seems, lets hope it stays that way
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It’s not found out by chance though is it. The suggestion is that many caught it as a result of being in a hospital where there are people with Covid in the first place.
 
Will.NFFC said:
It’s not found out by chance though is it. The suggestion is that many caught it as a result of being in a hospital where there are people with Covid in the first place.
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Not necessarily. There have been thousands of people carrying the virus who have been asymptomatic. On top of that we know that the virus has been adept at spreading regardless of the precautions taken. Very tough to blame the NHS in that scenario.
 
Professor Neil Ferguson:

“The Effect of vaccines is hugely reducing risk of hospitalisations and death, and I’m positive that by late Sept or Oct we’ll be looking back at most of the pandemic”.

Fuck me, that means there will be 100,000 new infections per day then!
 
Basha73 said:
Not necessarily. There have been thousands of people carrying the virus who have been asymptomatic. On top of that we know that the virus has been adept at spreading regardless of the precautions taken. Very tough to blame the NHS in that scenario.
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Yes I agree and it wasn’t a blame on the NHS in anyway. But the problem is that those figures are used to determine how we proceed regarding lockdown/easing etc.

They’ve come to accept case numbers but are using hospitalization and deaths as a yardstick, so if people weren’t in there for Covid but caught it as a result are making up up to 50% of that statistic, then it impacts the decision making and the general view amongst the public.
 
Will.NFFC said:
Yes I agree and it wasn’t a blame on the NHS in anyway. But the problem is that those figures are used to determine how we proceed regarding lockdown/easing etc.

They’ve come to accept case numbers but are using hospitalization and deaths as a yardstick, so if people weren’t in there for Covid but caught it as a result are making up up to 50% of that statistic, then it impacts the decision making and the general view amongst the public.
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They won’t necessarily have been using the figures that we see and the fact is that when and where a person caught it is not that relevant to the overall figure.

Remember as well that the ‘roadmap’ predates the Delta variant and other than s 1 month delay which needed to happen it has been followed.

I would be more concerned with following the variants and with whether the Government will leave borders open when they need to be closed.

The main obstruction to progressing to ‘normality’ is not the high level figures that we are getting but the incompetence, greed and self-serving nature of our Government.
 
It's a strange phenomenon that many (on here) don't question the veracity of published/reported infection numbers when they are rising; only when they are falling.
 
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