COBRA
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Sincilbanks
Vital Football Hero
Didn't have those pegged down as punks, still it cheers me up to imagine JRM singing "The fascist regime, they made you a moron, potential H bomb"
Sincilbanks
Vital Football Hero
A spell of hot weather will do for it before then I suspect
Long suffering Imp
Vital Squad Member
Only its doing quite well in Iran right now so can't imagine a bit of blighty sunshine will have that much effect. Strange really, everybody usually says we need a few frosts to kill off the bugs, now it's hotter weather to help. I'm confused.
Sincilbanks
Vital Football Hero
It's 12 degrees centigrade in Tehran right now..hardly hot. Have a think when flu is most prevalent, is it the winter or the summer? It's by no means a sure thing that the hot weather will kill it off, but we're not going to have a vaccine tested and ready for deployment before the autumn that's for sure..
https://time.com/5790880/coronavirus-warm-weather-summer/
Long suffering Imp
Vital Squad Member
Didn't realise it was that cold in Iran.
buckielugger
Vital 1st Team Regular
And much colder it would seem than their summers...
So big temperature difference for the bugs
German Imp
Vital Football Hero
On in 9
The Electric Banana
Vital Football Hero
Isn't it because the human immune system is less effective in the winter months?
From what I learnt from my Legionellosis training microbes and bugs don't like extremes of temperatures whatever end scale one subjects them to.
Imprest 1
Vital 1st Team Regular
Did the course at Porton Down, lol. Scary stuff!
Croozey
Vital 1st Team Regular
I don't think this virus should be just dismissed as nothing to worry about. Nobody knows very much about it yet, and the message that you will hear from the authorities for obvious reasons is Dont Panic.
I heard someone from the World Health Org being interviewed on Radio 4 the other night. He compared Corona to normal flu.
He said there is between 15-20% chance of you catching normal flu if you come into contact with it. It affects people in different levels of seriousness and 1% of cases prove fatal.
He then said- from the early evidence there is a 60% chance and could be as high as 80% of catching Corona if you come into contact with it. So it is highly contagious. 4 times that of flu.
Also, although BJ is telling us today that we should expect 1% of cases to be fatal, if you do the maths of cases world wide 92,300, and 3,100 deaths. That isnt 1% its more like 4%.
2 weeks ago we had 4 cases in the uk, 1 week ago we had 11, now we have 51. At that rate we are talking hundreds next week, a thousand the week after. and so on and so on.
I've stocked up the freezer, and foods with long life. Tins etc. i've got some N95 facemasks(just in case). If Mrs Croozey and I have to self isolate and sit it out for a couple of weeks i reckon we can survive without going out for 2 weeks or so. I think it's a good idea to at least have a plan.
I heard someone from the World Health Org being interviewed on Radio 4 the other night. He compared Corona to normal flu.
He said there is between 15-20% chance of you catching normal flu if you come into contact with it. It affects people in different levels of seriousness and 1% of cases prove fatal.
He then said- from the early evidence there is a 60% chance and could be as high as 80% of catching Corona if you come into contact with it. So it is highly contagious. 4 times that of flu.
Also, although BJ is telling us today that we should expect 1% of cases to be fatal, if you do the maths of cases world wide 92,300, and 3,100 deaths. That isnt 1% its more like 4%.
2 weeks ago we had 4 cases in the uk, 1 week ago we had 11, now we have 51. At that rate we are talking hundreds next week, a thousand the week after. and so on and so on.
I've stocked up the freezer, and foods with long life. Tins etc. i've got some N95 facemasks(just in case). If Mrs Croozey and I have to self isolate and sit it out for a couple of weeks i reckon we can survive without going out for 2 weeks or so. I think it's a good idea to at least have a plan.
Sincilbanks
Vital Football Hero
I linked to a source, you could read that?
The Electric Banana
Vital Football Hero
A rubbish and unscientific one, hence I added my educated comment.
DonnyImp
Vital Squad Member
The friggin 6inch auto injector scared me more than the nasty stuff!
MaineRoad_96
Vital 1st Team Regular
Nevermind the flu nonsense, this is the best Cobra I can think of....
markhonesmagicstuds
Vital Reserves Team
The problem is that it is notoriously difficult to pin down the exact number of cases, due to the probable high number of undiagnosed low-level cases. Same as flu as well, tbf. Which is why we are seeing a wide range of people guessing at the fatality rate.
The range of 1% - 4% is just a portion of various people's attempts at guessing.
StrangelyBrown
Vital Squad Member
Some interesting comments.
Firstly COVID 19 is a virus hence the basic hygiene advice is the best advice you can get and act upon. Wash your hands (sing what you like) with warm soapy water or use an alcohol gel with minimum 60% alcohol content.
Some stuff about the virus.
There is no cure or vaccine
It is highly infectious.
There were 6 corona viruses which affect humans (the 2 you'll know are SARS and MERS)- COVID 19 is the 7th.
The mortality rate currently is 1-2% (if you are admitted to hospital with acute symptoms the death rate is running between 30-50%)
SO, it is not the "here and now" which is of concern, it is the reality with most emerging infectious disease modelling that a worst case scenario with 80% of the population exposed and infected will see a mortality rate of between 480k-960k in the UK. Note the high death rate in Italy compared to infections identified in that country.
The first Western nation to be significantly infected has a much higher death rate....that is either biological or statistical (it is the absence of the normal and the presence of the abnormal). It is much more likely to be the latter- ie Asian nations have not been able to record all infected persons so the death rate has been presumed lower but may, after more data is recorded, be much higher than we realised originally (and therefore much more dangerous).
Social distancing policies may well become norms IF we reach epidemic state in the UK- large numbers working from home or avoiding gatherings (ironically the human to human transmission is very unlikely just by walking past someone who is infected).
There remains no cure for SARS or MERS or COVID 19 and treatment for any infected COVID 19 patient admitted to hospital is support therapy for affected systems (almost invariably the respiratory system).
Highly infectious, no cure, no vaccine, possible much higher mortality than originally presumed.
Hence the possible implementation of social restrictions and constraints and invasive laws which will restrict movement and the spread of the virus (think Eyam and the Plague).
This will be with us (in some form) for many many years- SARS and MERS still exist as one of the 6 corona which affect humans (7 with COVID 19) and certainly will be with us into and after this winter in one form or another.
So, worst case and I'd worry- what is most likely is it will get much worse before it gets anywhere near better. And that may mean changes to next season as part of a wider raft of measures IF we go into epidemic.
Lots and lots of semi-knowns and semi-unknowns and any virologist will tell you we need a much bigger patient sample to make any really definitive statements on mortality, infection rates etc.
Lovely!
Firstly COVID 19 is a virus hence the basic hygiene advice is the best advice you can get and act upon. Wash your hands (sing what you like) with warm soapy water or use an alcohol gel with minimum 60% alcohol content.
Some stuff about the virus.
There is no cure or vaccine
It is highly infectious.
There were 6 corona viruses which affect humans (the 2 you'll know are SARS and MERS)- COVID 19 is the 7th.
The mortality rate currently is 1-2% (if you are admitted to hospital with acute symptoms the death rate is running between 30-50%)
SO, it is not the "here and now" which is of concern, it is the reality with most emerging infectious disease modelling that a worst case scenario with 80% of the population exposed and infected will see a mortality rate of between 480k-960k in the UK. Note the high death rate in Italy compared to infections identified in that country.
The first Western nation to be significantly infected has a much higher death rate....that is either biological or statistical (it is the absence of the normal and the presence of the abnormal). It is much more likely to be the latter- ie Asian nations have not been able to record all infected persons so the death rate has been presumed lower but may, after more data is recorded, be much higher than we realised originally (and therefore much more dangerous).
Social distancing policies may well become norms IF we reach epidemic state in the UK- large numbers working from home or avoiding gatherings (ironically the human to human transmission is very unlikely just by walking past someone who is infected).
There remains no cure for SARS or MERS or COVID 19 and treatment for any infected COVID 19 patient admitted to hospital is support therapy for affected systems (almost invariably the respiratory system).
Highly infectious, no cure, no vaccine, possible much higher mortality than originally presumed.
Hence the possible implementation of social restrictions and constraints and invasive laws which will restrict movement and the spread of the virus (think Eyam and the Plague).
This will be with us (in some form) for many many years- SARS and MERS still exist as one of the 6 corona which affect humans (7 with COVID 19) and certainly will be with us into and after this winter in one form or another.
So, worst case and I'd worry- what is most likely is it will get much worse before it gets anywhere near better. And that may mean changes to next season as part of a wider raft of measures IF we go into epidemic.
Lots and lots of semi-knowns and semi-unknowns and any virologist will tell you we need a much bigger patient sample to make any really definitive statements on mortality, infection rates etc.
Lovely!
Skip155
Vital Champions League
I can only regurgitate what I’ve read. One article on BBC talked about the calculation not just being a linear a/b but PHD style complex. It went on to explain why but I don’t recall the detail.
There’s also this I’ve been reading tonight ‘Novel coronavirus, which causes the disease COVID-19, killed as many as 15% of people in the first 10 days of January but has now decreased to an average of 0.7% in many countries outside of China. The reason the fatality rate has fallen sharply in China is because of a number of things...’
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-reality-check-how-worried-should-we-be-11948003
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