Bit of Brexit info required. | Page 98 | Vital Forums

Bit of Brexit info required.

Feco

Vital Reserves Team
Erm. Go back a page, or 90.

Feco, ever wonder if you're wasting your time?
Quite often....but I just put that down to an age thing. I guess you feel the same?

Reminds me of one of the fitters who looked after us when we were going through our apprenticeships.

He used to say it was like trying to educate a schoal of haddock, I now fully understand what he meant.....

Still a few more posts towards the 100 pages,
 

toms

Vital Football Hero
As per ITTO post #1936 above!!

Or just trawl back.......

You really don’t want me to post that bloody Farage Jason Hunter video again do you?
Video is nonsense and fails to take into account the basic practicalities of business. Now we have itto saying there will be a brexit dividend. Honestly you guys can’t have ever one a business deal orctaken part in negotiations

You’ve now taken to seeking to ridicule me whilst flip flopping on your tone regarding the possibility of a deal, which you and itto thought wouldn’t happen. Now you are saying you can live with a deal you aren’t party do and have no idea of the terms. At least I’m consistent in my views. As things progress, you are both being shown to be wrong at every step.
 
Quite often....but I just put that down to an age thing. I guess you feel the same?

Reminds me of one of the fitters who looked after us when we were going through our apprenticeships.

He used to say it was like trying to educate a schoal of haddock, I now fully understand what he meant.....

Still a few more posts towards the 100 pages,
I'm not that old but I might need to have a lie down when the ton is up.
 
Video is nonsense and fails to take into account the basic practicalities of business. Now we have itto saying there will be a brexit dividend. Honestly you guys can’t have ever one a business deal orctaken part in negotiations

You’ve now taken to seeking to ridicule me whilst flip flopping on your tone regarding the possibility of a deal, which you and itto thought wouldn’t happen. Now you are saying you can live with a deal you aren’t party do and have no idea of the terms. At least I’m consistent in my views. As things progress, you are both being shown to be wrong at every step.
😂
Night night, Toms. I may or may not take this to pieces tomorrow.
 

Feco

Vital Reserves Team
Video is nonsense and fails to take into account the basic practicalities of business. Now we have itto saying there will be a brexit dividend. Honestly you guys can’t have ever one a business deal orctaken part in negotiations

You’ve now taken to seeking to ridicule me whilst flip flopping on your tone regarding the possibility of a deal, which you and itto thought wouldn’t happen. Now you are saying you can live with a deal you aren’t party do and have no idea of the terms. At least I’m consistent in my views. As things progress, you are both being shown to be wrong at every step.
Well considering the video is only about the legal and technical practicalities of international trade I’m not suprised it doesn’t go into depth about basic business. That wouldn’t really be relevent.

Toms, please don’t think I’m trying to ridicule you (nor you Lienking). It’s not personal, just a bit of banter. I apologies if you think that is the case. I respect your views even if I disagree with it entirely.

ITTO will disagree with me on this, he thinks that Article 50 can be reversed, I don’t. I think we find out for sure next week. On that basis I have always accepted that we leave the EU on the 29th March next year.
My point is, and always was we had to have a hard border in Ireland or a Customs Union/Trade Deal with the EU or nothing come Brexit day.
Nobody has offered any evidence that that is nòt the case, indeed both our Government and the EU have published official papers outlining the very effects such crash out would cause.

The only option open is the one now being pushed through, and the one we are being prepared for right now.
I was told certain things at the weekend which are so far looking like being correct, even though the timescale has slipped. A statement after PMQ’s next week is now being suggested.
Whether you believe it or not is irrelevant I can’t or won’t provide evidence to support my statements, so I understand your skepticism.

I was told certain things by someone who should know what’s happening. Based on that I believe a Deal has been done on the withdrawal and we will leave on the basis I have said a few times since Sunday.
There are certain things happening in the financial world now that suggest they know things too.
If the arrangement works out how I was told, it’s a good compromíse and I can live with it.
 
Have to say that I'm enjoying all of this repartee, so far it's been better than a good many books I've read. And no winners yet in my opinion, reasonable views put up by both sides. It looks as though the whole thing is hotting up and it's obvious that the next 2 or 3 months will be crucial, I still can't pick a clear answer to most of it. In fact I think it's hard to pick a clear answer to any of it, partly due to the EU playing hard ball. Just my opinion of course and mostly picked up from listening to you fellows.

And I'm still learning, please don't stop just yet.
 

toms

Vital Football Hero
Well considering the video is only about the legal and technical practicalities of international trade I’m not suprised it doesn’t go into depth about basic business. That wouldn’t really be relevent.

Toms, please don’t think I’m trying to ridicule you (nor you Lienking). It’s not personal, just a bit of banter. I apologies if you think that is the case. I respect your views even if I disagree with it entirely.

ITTO will disagree with me on this, he thinks that Article 50 can be reversed, I don’t. I think we find out for sure next week. On that basis I have always accepted that we leave the EU on the 29th March next year.
My point is, and always was we had to have a hard border in Ireland or a Customs Union/Trade Deal with the EU or nothing come Brexit day.
Nobody has offered any evidence that that is nòt the case, indeed both our Government and the EU have published official papers outlining the very effects such crash out would cause.

The only option open is the one now being pushed through, and the one we are being prepared for right now.
I was told certain things at the weekend which are so far looking like being correct, even though the timescale has slipped. A statement after PMQ’s next week is now being suggested.
Whether you believe it or not is irrelevant I can’t or won’t provide evidence to support my statements, so I understand your skepticism.

I was told certain things by someone who should know what’s happening. Based on that I believe a Deal has been done on the withdrawal and we will leave on the basis I have said a few times since Sunday.
There are certain things happening in the financial world now that suggest they know things too.
If the arrangement works out how I was told, it’s a good compromíse and I can live with it.
Your entire argument is based on a narrow analysis of that video. How can you have a rounded discussion about an issue if you won’t consider basic business practicalities and real life situations?

Itto has been jumping on your coattails based on this analysis to promote the second vote and to stop brexit. To be honest I’m not entirely sure where you stand. You are talking about living with a compromise. After arguing against brexit, it seems there is a deal which you can live with. That must mean you can accept the concept of brexit.

At least with itto you know what you are getting. Irrational fear and rabid remainerism but with you I can’t tell.

I think you may have realised that actually a reasonable brexit is not an awful thing for the uk otherwise you wouldn’t be able to live with anything (like itto) But I must say, it’s not clear. Has your position moved?
 

Feco

Vital Reserves Team
Your entire argument is based on a narrow analysis of that video. How can you have a rounded discussion about an issue if you won’t consider basic business practicalities and real life situations?

Itto has been jumping on your coattails based on this analysis to promote the second vote and to stop brexit. To be honest I’m not entirely sure where you stand. You are talking about living with a compromise. After arguing against brexit, it seems there is a deal which you can live with. That must mean you can accept the concept of brexit.

At least with itto you know what you are getting. Irrational fear and rabid remainerism but with you I can’t tell.

I think you may have realised that actually a reasonable brexit is not an awful thing for the uk otherwise you wouldn’t be able to live with anything (like itto) But I must say, it’s not clear. Has your position moved?
No as I said, I did not vote for Brexit, and I am against the concept. I just don’t think that it is possible to be a standalone nation these days.

That said, I accept that leave won the referendum, and that once Article 50 was triggered, we left on the 29th March 2019.

What I can’t accept was the leave being put forward by Davis and co.
That was simply impractical in all aspects and certainly within the given the timeframe, and the situation was further compounded by the conflicting legislation passed by Parliament. That’s what the video emphasis.

Now it seems that common sense will prevail we will have an orderly exit and nothing much will change.
The crucial thing is though, once the exit side is sorted, then we are only dealing with the future relationships. Not only the EU, but everyone else.
Personally I think that is a more productive place to be starting these negotiations, and I think the outcome will be better for everyone.
But it will take time and I really don’t know what the outcome will be. I am sure that the situation both for the EU and the UK will be radically different to what it is now.

At least we should not crash out with the power brood damage that would do.

So do I want to leave the EU? No
Do I accept the referendum result? Yes
Am I happy with the deal proposal? I would rather we weren’t in that position, but get Ben that we are, I think this is the best option available, so I can live with that.

And if you still don’t know where I stand, well currently it’s Birmingham.....sadly.
 
Should be an interesting week next week. The Italians have until the 13th to back down on their budget or the euro could be in danger.
Will May last next week? I can't really see who is going to support this deal. Labour will turn it down even if the EU pays us £20 billion a year to stay in! The DUP are against it, and even Tory MPs who reluctantly accept we will leave are rightly trying to ensure that there is a unilateral way out of the deal. Not to mention the ERG group of 40 or so Tory MPs who also seem to be saying they will vote it down.
 

in_the_top_one

Vital 1st Team Regular
It seems that even a weekend is a long time in politics. I though Jo(nlysensible) Johnson's resignation letter was well written and very much to the point.

Is your chap still confident of those numbers, Feco, or is it squeaky bum time (to use a football term)?

Labour would be crazy to want a GE anytime soon.


Toms, Brexit where nothing changes except that we don't get to make any of the decisions has always been possible, but not clever, and certainly not what you voted for. It does technically tick the boxes TM claims the referendum created. I think we all hope they aren't ticked. So that leaves us with remain or crashing out. Even if you were foolhardy or selfish enough to want to crash out, you still have to come up with a mechanism for doing so. Even the most ardent NoDealers have failed to do so without economic and social chaos, breaking the Belfast Agreement, or both. The only democratic path forward is a vote on the options available. That means there must be a prospectus of what happens following each potential outcome of the referendum.

To be fair, I've been consistent in that for nearly a hundred pages. It's rather odd and unfair to say that I've been on Feco's coat tails considering he was quite a latecomer to this party.

I have never ridiculed you personally (at least not intentionally, and not more than in jest/banter) but your arguments are fair game.
In stark contrast, if you like, you can trawl back through your own comments and count your unfounded assertions about me? In particular your misperception that I have never negotiated a deal, nor closed a contract, and that I am a brainwashed victim of 'group think' in my little academic bubble.
 
ITTO it's not ideal, but I have no problems with signing up for a fixed time as a vassal state as long as it's a short term step towards leaving, and we can do this unilaterally.. The problem is May and Hammond have wasted two and a half years. We should have spent a few billion preparing for no deal. No , I don't want No Deal, but the EU would have known we were determined to leave and we would have a much stronger bargaining base. May might prove me wrong, but I can't see her getting any deal until after we have left. This leaves her (or her successor) with four months to prepare for No Deal, or leaving us as a permanent EU vassal state who know we will never leave no matter what they do to us. I assume the EU military army to protect us from the USA is the next step.
 
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Feco

Vital Reserves Team
ITTO, I’m down in London later in the week, I’ll let you know if anything has changed.

Lienking, the problem is not the future deal, that can and will be negotiated in due course. May take a long time, but it will happen.

The major issue is the exit deal, in particular the Irish Border situation.
Again, we have 3 options, the hard border, a Customs Union with the EU, or who knows what. To trade under WTO rules we need to be able to control our borders, as do the EU. That’s it, no other options.

We can’t spin off Northern Ireland, a hard border would seem to be out of the question, soot does seem as though only the Customs Union for the whole of the UK is both practical and workable.

The ‘Exit’ bit is temporary, whilst the transition/future negotiations are agreed. By its very nature it’s not a permanent solution.

To me remaining in the CU the only logical way to leave seamlessly, and move forward to the next stage with doing untold damage to our economy.
These deals take time to complete, so that should not be the overriding limiting factor, getting it right should be. And remember we will be negotiating with other countries too at this point. We will not be as exposed to just one block as we are now.

I agree 100% with you, if we crash out, then kiss goodbye to a deal with the EU, or anyone else for that matter for a very long time. Getting a solid and workable exit is crucial now, and I think the UK is in a good position to do that if it compromises on the CU.
Over to the goons in Westminster.

All that’s said, I still think that leaving was a crazy idea......
 
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ITTO, I’m down in London later in the week, I’ll let you know if anything has changed.

Lienking, the problem is not the future deal, that can and will be negotiated in due course. May take a long time, but it will happen.

The major issue is the exit deal, in particular the Irish Border situation.
Again, we have 3 options, the hard border, a Customs Union with the EU, or who knows what. To trade under WTO rules we need to be able to control our borders, as do the EU. That’s it, no other options.

We can’t spin off Northern Ireland, a hard border would seem to be out of the question, soot does seem as though only the Customs Union for the whole of the UK is both practical and workable.

The ‘Exit’ bit is temporary, whilst the transition/future negotiations are agreed. By its very nature it’s not a permanent solution.

.
I was only talking about the exit deal. Couldn't care less what it is really, as long as it is an EXIT deal, and not a permanent limbo deal. It may take years to sort out final deals, but if countries have a choice of exporting to us or not, I would guess things can be sorted quite rapidly. Found a map the other day that implies over 10% of the Irish GDP relates to the UK, and about 5.5% of Germany's. France and Belgium were only about 2, but would have a much more serious localised effect in Calais, Zeebrugge etc.

Of course deals outside the EU would be far easier as only two countries would be involved.
 
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in_the_top_one

Vital 1st Team Regular
ITTO it's not ideal, but I have no problems with signing up for a fixed time as a vassal state as long as it's a short term step towards leaving, and we can do this unilaterally.. The problem is May and Hammond have wasted two and a half years. We should have spent a few billion preparing for no deal. No , I don't want No Deal, but the EU would have known we were determined to leave and we would have a much stronger bargaining base. May might prove me wrong, but I can't see her getting any deal until after we have left. This leaves her (or her successor) with four months to prepare for No Deal, or leaving us as a permanent EU vassal state who know we will never leave no matter what they do to us. I assume the EU military army to protect us from the USA is the next step.
If there is a fixed time limit then you need a backstop. You have to think of the What Ifs. IN this case, what if there isn't a technical solution that can be invented and implemented before the end of the transition period. This is the heart of the matter.
A transition period doesn't solve the problem, it postpones it. If there is a simple "technical solution" to the Irish border (or others but that one in particular) that can be implemented now, or within a couple of years, then the brexiters would have leapt upon the transition period idea on the proviso that we would have implemented this mythical tech by the end of it. But even they don't believe that it will solve the issues, hence their reluctance to accept TMs proposal.
 

toms

Vital Football Hero
I was only talking about the exit deal. Couldn't care less what it is really, as long as it is an EXIT deal, and not a permanent limbo deal. It may take years to sort out final deals, but if countries have a choice of exporting to us or not, I would guess things can be sorted quite rapidly. Found a map the other day that implies over 10% of the Irish GDP relates to the UK, and about 5.5% of Germany's. France and Belgium were only about 2, but would have a much more serious localised effect in Calais, Zeebrugge etc.

O deals outside the EU would be far easier as only two countries would be involved.
This is all beginning to feel like a sellout. But I havent seen the deal.

So I must reserve my growing sceptism.

I’m still hopeful that the deal is better than everyone thinks.

The referendum must be implemented in accordance with the guarantee given in the government leaflet otherwise there will be challenges and there will be no end to the uncertainty.
 

toms

Vital Football Hero
If there is a fixed time limit then you need a backstop. You have to think of the What Ifs. IN this case, what if there isn't a technical solution that can be invented and implemented before the end of the transition period. This is the heart of the matter.
A transition period doesn't solve the problem, it postpones it. If there is a simple "technical solution" to the Irish border (or others but that one in particular) that can be implemented now, or within a couple of years, then the brexiters would have leapt upon the transition period idea on the proviso that we would have implemented this mythical tech by the end of it. But even they don't believe that it will solve the issues, hence their reluctance to accept TMs proposal.
Apparently the Withdrawal agreement is 500 pages long. Nice easy read
 

Feco

Vital Reserves Team
Once we can agree how the UK leaves, them the issue around the Irish border becomes clearer.
Obviously once we have negotiated a trade deal with the EU, then under WTO rules you don’t need a hard border. All necessary details should be covered by that.