Bit of Brexit info required. | Vital Football

Bit of Brexit info required.

Old Red Fart

Vital Football Hero
#1
Just heard of the resignation of of 3 Govt people regarding the terms being taken regarding the exit. Apparently giving the farm away, or words to that effect. Over here we don't seem to get the real detail at times, so is this correct.
 

Lienking

Vital 1st Team Regular
#2
Your title should read "Light blue touch paper and stand back"!!! The more vociferous people on here don't think we should be leaving. Britain is incapable of existing outside the EU, and all us old codgers who voted leave will be dead inside the next couple of years anyhow. Other people (including me) think that we should be tearing ourselves from an organisation that has already ruined Greece, Italy, Spain etc, and we should have the right to control who comes to live in our country (over 500,000 in the last year I have seen). May might deliver a Brexit that most leavers don't think is good enough. The trouble is that trying to stop her is probably as likely to cause us to stay in the EU against the referendum, rather than have a "no deal Brexit". Many people think there should be another referendum (because the EU always has a second referendum if they don't get the right answer the first time).

For your next question, is there a god/ what is the meaning of life.......................
 

Lienking

Vital 1st Team Regular
#3
Just to try and explain without the sting in the tail, 48% wanted to stay in the EU. The leavers were told that we would get back £17m a year if we left. This figure was probably too high, but May virtually promised our payments to the EU till December 2020 no matter what, giving away the big negotiating card. They are currently promising that 3 million EU citizens can stay here, and still bring over children, siblings and other family who are not yet here. I would probably reluctantly settle for what she is saying, but she is so weak she is likely to give away our ability to even control our borders and still leave us serving the European courts. Her party is split in two, and if she goes we could end up with a no deal Brexit or stay in. It could go either way, or her government could fall altogether. The labour party, if they got in, are more strongly remain, but a hell of a lot of their supporters voted leave, and their leader Jeremy Corbyn has always been anti EU.He is also loved by his supporters, but a lot of his MP's wanted him to go! Both party's could end up splitting in two, though I doubt that will happen. Whatever happens, half the population won't be too happy!
 

paz1967

Vital Football Hero
#4
Of course there is far more to that too, the other side as it were. UK has the biggest number of expats in Europe by a mile, millions have had the choice to move freely and consider that we have a European passport which gives us access to real choice in our lives. Now for some reason, people want to remove that passport? I say 'some' people because what people wanted from leaving was based on many factors but any rational person knows that timing is everything and the whole Brexit vote WAS really a vote of unhappiness with the current austerity in their lives. Sure there are people that think people going to UK from Spain or Italy or France or even Australia is an unwanted immigrant cos they are uneducated or uninformed or fear for jobs because they have no confidence in their own abilities. A shame these same people dont vote against 'no staff checkouts' and things that really lose their jobs.
Then we have fishery folk who have been moaning about something or another our entire lives and act as tho fisheries employ 20 million people.
Theres also those that were cheated and lied to about all this money going to the national health service, much like the royal family, the simple folk like their traditions. I feel sorry for them but not my fault they cant think for themselves.
I dont actually care, I have my Spanish residency but Its difficult with any logic to see how London centric isolated England (cos Scotland and Ireland might find their own way back in) can possibly be better for the country. Most modern human rights and workers rights, building regulations, climate agreements and medical standards come from Europe, not from UK. Most goods are bought from Europe, I send goods to UK every day, why would you want a tax on these goods? You will still have to buy them as you cant produce it there. Thats 90% of real people right there, nothing to do with GDP and all that nonsense that effects them not a jot.
what was i talking about? sorry, natures finest ;)
 

Old Red Fart

Vital Football Hero
#5
Lienking, thanks for the 2 posts full of the sort of info I was chasing. From your point of view it sounds as though your PM just might be out on a limb, that's the impression which comes across in our papers, except we don't get the reasons for or against so stay rather in the dark. Think I'll stay over here after all.

Just read the post from paz but not sure I understood some of it, probably par for the course.

Thanks again, it helps.
 

Lienking

Vital 1st Team Regular
#6
I don't know about Aus, but I was only saying the other day how bad news reporting is. The Thai cave boys were rescued through 15 inch gaps in some places. Did they crawl in through 15 inch gaps, or was their exit blocked by things (other than water) that narrowed the tunnels?

Similarly two well to do people have been poisoned here by Novichok (Russian nerve agent). Only on trawling through the papers did it become apparent that one suffered from alcohol problems and the other one was a drug user, and they both used to pick up cigarette ends. If papers can't report relatively simple things they have no chance on reporting on Brexit! Anyhow, in order not to drone on, I will make the rest of the post separately !
 

Lienking

Vital 1st Team Regular
#7
Going back to Paz's post, I believe around 53% of imports come from the EU. There are no taxes on EU imports, but we are forced to have EU import taxes on all non-EU goods. After Brexit we SHOULD be able to set our own import rates. Under free trade this could be zero on everything, or WE could choose what rates we want. At present UK workers can work anywhere in the EU. This is great for (say) the 10 % of the population that want to do this, but of course the 90% of workers who remain in the UK are competing with low paid workers from Eastern Europe and the rest of the EU. Schools, roads and the NHS are bursting at the seams as the population rises. Admittedly the NHS has numerous staff from the EU (and the rest of the world), largely because it is free to steal doctors and nurses from abroad, but you have to pay to train UK based people.

We only produce about 50% of our own food, and have to import energy too, and have a continuous trade deficit .

Following the leave vote in a secret vote , a small sample study from a company (the one who said remain had won!) said that remain voters were younger and better educated. This has brought remain supporters to say we shouldn't leave because leave supporters would a) all be dead soon b) were too thick to understand c)were lied to or d) were got at by the Russians/Facebook/ or illegal spending by the Leave organisation.

Of course if 7% of people of my age went to University and 40% go now, theoretically all younger people are , on average, better educated. This is very debatable from what I have seen of younger workers!

Leave people were lied to on the famous bus (vote leave to get £350m extra per week for the NHS). Of course no one was lied to when the supposedly neutral government sent a booklet to EVERY house in the UK explaining how we would all be worse off if we left. Remainers said voting to leave itself would necessitate an emergency budget, which of course didn't happen. Obama was told to tell us that in the US we would be at the back of the queue. This is an English expression - the US would say back of the line.

There are numerous options after leaving. Of course no one knows the future so we may be worse off economically. 88% of trade is, I believe domestic. The problem is that the large corporates (airbus, cars etc) are global and have much louder voices than the small companies. The car companies must know more than I do, but I believe we import 3 cars for each one we export. Surely a no trade deal would help UK manufacturers?

Either way because Theresa May has failed to prepare for a no deal Brexit and failed to tell the EU we want something for our £40 billion, we seem to be heading for a Brexit in which we have no say on EU rules, but will still have to stick to them. The EU of course wants our money, and also wants to show that a country can't leave and be a success ( there is rising anti-EU feeling in Italy, Greece, Eastern Europe, and to a lesser extent even in France).

Donald Tusk has just said to Trump that the US doesn't have many allies! Trump is complaining that the US spends 3.4% of GDP on defence. Germany spends 1%, and even France isn't meeting the 2% target. Trump says the US is paying tax to protect Europe. If Tusk is so dismissive of the US, you can just imagine how he talks to the UK! We even have Ireland telling us what to do, and one top Irish official has said that because of the Good Friday agreement,it is illegal for the UK to leave without a deal!
 

Old Red Fart

Vital Football Hero
#8
Well done LK, you must have been up all night writing all that. It's just the sort of info that I was hoping for. It does begin to sound more of a mess than I thought and on reading your comments a second time it appears to be much worse than I first thought. Beside that I could never make my mind up whether Johnson was a help or a hindrance.
I notice that Trump will be with you shortly when he's finished sorting out the EU. and can hardly wait for your views on that.

Many thanks for all the effort you've obviously put in, it's much appreciated.
 

Lienking

Vital 1st Team Regular
#9
Was morning over here when I typed it, so no problem. My son and I have just splashed out on season tickets. Probably only averaged two or three games a season in the past 5 years, so we are hoping for better things again!
 

in_the_top_one

Vital Football Hero
#10
Well done LK, you must have been up all night writing all that. It's just the sort of info that I was hoping for.
It isn't length that counts, it's whether or not it does the job.
Lienking makes some good points, but much is incorrect or misses the point.

For example, that anybody really thinks that a no trade deal endgame will help businesses such as the car industry is absolutely extraordinary.

The same people who say we should leave with no deal, want to strike free trade deals elsewhere! There is no internal consistency on a range of issues which is why Brexit is falling apart under its own contradictions.
 

Lienking

Vital 1st Team Regular
#11
I don't necessarily want a free trade agreement, but there is a vast difference between that and an EU agreement. The EU has ideologies such as free trade means you take our people too. I don't profess to know what will happen, or who to believe. Airbus has just threatened us with leaving the UK. If the article I have just read is correct they employ 4,000 people and make wings for planes here. Apparently it would take several years for them to move. Meanwhile having no wings would presumably lose the 130,000 people they employ in the EU their jobs too. An alternative is to get cheap inferior wings from China. Of course we know all about Chinese manufacturing standards!

Also for every car we export 3 are imported from the EU. 1 in 7 German made cars is sold here. They are probably about to lose the US market too. Do they really want another 15% job losses at their end? The trouble is, the EU is so dogmatic they will try to ruin the UK, and in the process shoot themselves in the foot.
 

in_the_top_one

Vital Football Hero
#12
Airbus (and many, many others) are being threatened by UK policy. They would rather stay. They aren't the bullies here.

Your car issue is all arse-about-face. If we import most of our cars, then hindering that process won't help. We obviously can't make enough to go around and if Nissan and all the others leave because the supply chains are screwed then we will be even worse position.

Please, please, please stop repeating (or alluding to) the myth that they need us more than we need them.

It just isn't true, which is why their negotiating hand is far stronger than ours, and why they have not changed their published position since the referendum. We aren't being bullied, they are just maintaining the established rules of the club which we have decided to leave.
We're desperate for a transition deal so we don't go bankrupt, they don't want to be mildly inconvenienced. Our exports to the EU account for 13% of our economy but their exports to us account for just 3%.

So, of course, the European governments and German car manufacturers would be sad to see us go and will miss our contribution to the budget. But they won't jeopardise the fantastic arrangements that the union represents to allow for us having all the benefits and paying none of the costs.
Added to which, the exports from here are largely from companies that are likely to relocate after Brexit because conditions won't be so favourable here. So that 3% will diminish, as will our profit from exports.

Thankfully most of the government have now gone beyond the cake-and-eat-it phase of fantasy, but some still wont accept it...


We mustn't leave the single market or CU. If we do, we need to replace it with a construct that does the same job. Fortunately the country has ALWAYS been of that opinion - even leave voters, who were promised the Norway option before voting and continued to expect it immediately afterwards. All this hard brexit nonsense is a massive and unjustifiable over-reach by extremists.

2016 poll showing Norway option favourable by two-to-one.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/11/uk-voters-back-norway-style-brexit-poll-reveals/
 

Lienking

Vital 1st Team Regular
#13
ITTO it may be ultimately that you're right and I'm wrong, but all of the views on Brexit are opinion, and no one knows what will happen. I didn't say airbus are bullies , but the fact is they employ far more people in europe (130,000 I think) than they do here. Can they make wings elsewhere? If they can't presumably the whole lot will close down unless they carry on trading with us.

There may be something I don't know about the car market too, as different sources give different figures. However your logic is incorrect on that. If we can't import cars, British people would have to buy British cars. If demand here remains static (or even falls ) this demand would more than replace the export loss, so why would the companies move abroad? We currently have something like a £90 billion trade deficit on goods , so again we would be better off. Of course this is nothing but a game of poker, and whatever happens trade will not stop. The EU aren't bothered about us , but worse than that they don't seem bothered about jobs in Europe. OK they would be more spread around, but more jobs would be lost there than here.


Even with flights, if they stopped us flying, people would have to holiday here. I don't know much about these companies, but who would be badly hit? Ryanair (Irish), British Airways (Spanish) as well as our companies. In 2013 Britons spent £77 billion abroad on holidays, so they could write that off too in the Spanish,Greek etc hotels too.

We hold far more cards than the timid PM seems to know about!
 

in_the_top_one

Vital Football Hero
#15
You're right that predictions are opinion. But some things are known facts. These facts inform some people's opinion and are ignored or not understood when other people are forming theirs.
 

in_the_top_one

Vital Football Hero
#16
I'd be interested to see your list of different sources of the prospects of the car industry. I suspect there is some false equivalence going on here.
Maybe we could divide them into positive and negative forecasts with a rating of their credibility?

We can start with jaguar land rover and Nissan. Both credible, both spelling disaster. Your turn..
 

toms

Vital Football Hero
#17
Big week this week boys. What will Boris do?

Will there be a leadership challenge?

What will the Eu say? (That one is rhetorical)

The only thing Im not clear about is whether if we adopt the common rule book with the EU, do we have to apply said rule book with third countries when we do deals with them.

Id prefer a hard brexit in the end but if I had a vote , Id cast it for this deal subject to that one clarification
 

Lienking

Vital 1st Team Regular
#19
Big week this week boys. What will Boris do?

Will there be a leadership challenge?

What will the Eu say? (That one is rhetorical)

The only thing Im not clear about is whether if we adopt the common rule book with the EU, do we have to apply said rule book with third countries when we do deals with them.

Id prefer a hard brexit in the end but if I had a vote , Id cast it for this deal subject to that one clarification
I would guess we are allowed to export anything we want, but would assume that all imports would need to meet EU standards. Andrew Marr was saying though that if we diverged from the EU rule book on ANYTHING (goods) this would then force border controls across the Irish border, basically meaning that if we are sticking to no border controls, we couldn't change anything! Boris/Mogg will probably sit on their hands and wait for the EU to say no to the deal. Apparently even on services (hard Brexit side) for access the EU still want to be able to raid offices in the UK. Can't see the EU accepting this.
 
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toms

Vital Football Hero
#20
If there is no leadership challenge beforehand, May to resign after Brexit saying it has taken a big toll on her. Boris or another takes over to take on Corbyn. That's my prediction