Strett
Vital Football Hero
*Except Wales.
#COVID19
- Thread starter Woanz
- Start date
*Except Wales.
in_the_top_one
Vital Football Legend
Not at all.
Stop just reading twitter for your opinions. Sometimes you need to read more than the character limit.
The welsh went into lockdown on 23rd Oct. Here is the graph of case rates in south Wales, where most of the people live.
Despite evidence of these downturns in infection rates from every country in the world that has used them;
despite seeing similar downturns that coincide with a similar lag after those restrictions are introduced;
despite those timings being different in all of those locations;
despite a return to rising infection levels when restrictions are lifted;
and despite the obvious logic of reducing transmissible disease by reducing human interactions;
..you still think the case rate downturn is some sort of natural phenomenon and the virus has simply 'run it's course'.
The mind boggles and your thought process.
seasider red
Vital 1st Team Regular
BBC reporting that the pfizer vaccine is 90% effective in trials. Pretty good for a 1st effort, and offers a real chink of light, hopefully roll out will not be delayed.
Strett
Vital Football Hero
Wales:
Rolling rate of cases/100k...
11/10 135.5
18/10 175.3
25/10 223.9
01/11 285.8
08/11 263
So I repeat, Wales is worse after lockdown. You are having a touch of the Whitty's about you by showing graphs to prove a spurious argument.
Is Peru not part of the world that had a lockdown, when you stated 'every country in the world'?
Strett
Vital Football Hero
Also October 23rd, when Wales went into lockdown, number of +ve cases on the rolling average was 198.4, November 6th 276.3 +ve cases.
Roaring success!
in_the_top_one
Vital Football Legend
what was the value at the peak?
Strett
Vital Football Hero
Didn't Merthyr have 740 odd? Up from 400 odd when they entered 'fire-break'?
in_the_top_one
Vital Football Legend
Well done pointing to the outlier - gold star - but failing again to address the substantive point.
I don't know if there is a single reason that Peru has struggled so badly with covid but here are several reasonable suggestions:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-53150808
What we also don't know is how bad it would have been if they had taken no action at all. I presume from your line of argument that your conclusion would be No Worse, or Better?
Strett
Vital Football Hero
I'm sorry, but you stated 'Every country in the world'. I pointed out that was an incorrect statement, which it was.
Strett
Vital Football Hero
That's great news.
in_the_top_one
Vital Football Legend
I'm genuinely struggling to see what you don't understand about this.
Is it the concept of their being a lag between an action and its effect?
Maybe it's your mechanical engineering background. Not everything is an instantaneous linkage.
Strett
Vital Football Hero
So do you expect the infections to rise again after they end the fire-break, assuming nothing changes vis-a-vis vaccine, etc.
in_the_top_one
Vital Football Legend
And I congratulated you on pointing out the outlier.
I would be amazed if, when this is all over, that there wasn't fairly clear evidence that where Peru's lockdown was enacted properly, there was a concomitant reduction in infection rate relative to areas where it was not. But we will have to wait and see.
Do you think they would have faired equally well in terms of infection rate without even attempting any measures?
in_the_top_one
Vital Football Legend
With a lag, and a return to the exact same behaviours of before, then that is likely.
We saw it after restrictions were eased last time.
There might be a visible effect from the beginnings of herd immunity especially within certain communities such as the student community.
Strett
Vital Football Hero
So what is the endgame then?
This is where I am, joking aside locking everyone away will halt the virus, this is obvious to a blind man on a galloping horse, but it reeks of kicking the can down the road. Viruses kill, it's kinda the point of them, so what do we do?
I am a big believer of having to live with this, as the misery being caused by locking down is now in danger of being many times worse than the virus itself.
in_the_top_one
Vital Football Legend
Maybe it was 'joking' but to deny the science of transmissible disease helps nobody. "Yeah but what about Peru" or half truths implying that Wales is in a worse place after the lockdown than before just undermines and sews a mistrust in the clear data that will make the problems last for longer and go deeper.
There is a lot to be said for kicking the can down the road. Doing so protects the NHS by flattening the curve while we await a suite of vaccines that can protect those who are most likely to come to a premature end.
We will have to live with it to some degree and some will continue to die with it. NZ has taken a zero covid policy but, as we have all pointed out, that was easier for them to achieve.
The questions are, and have been from almost the beginning, how much we can keep running while we wait, how much that will cost, what the effects of those cost are, and what the costs and effects of inaction/limited action are. That is where the grown up debate is.
InvincibleBrianMan
Vital 1st Team Regular
Because he is right and you are wrong, you refuse to counter the actual points he makes. WOW!
seasider red
Vital 1st Team Regular
It seems that the 90% efficacy of the vaccine announced today is in line with that of vaccines for other infectious diseases Which is excellent. It doesn't mean that life will go back to normal immediately, but hopefully it will make these petty arguments about the rights & wrongs of lockdowns redundant
Vaccine 90%. Biden beating Trump. USA likely to join Paris accord. Forest start winning. Brexit deal possible. Derby bottom of league. What’s not to be positive about.
Woanz
Vital Football Legend
so many fucking idiots won’t take this as it’s 5G lefty microchips & it’ll make you gaaaayyyyyy & autistic
