#COVID19 | Page 527 | Vital Football

#COVID19

strettea red said:
So it appears we were being lied to/scared into another lockdown.
They need to answer which one it is...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...-vallance-called-mps-explain-second-lockdown/
Click to expand...

Proper lockdowns are very hard work but it looks as though a good hardworking govt supported by Police and the Military if necessary is required to make it all work and the UK doesn't appear to have that. Plus the fact that the UK appears to have a sizable public minority who strongly disagree. That's the impression I have gained over the last 6 months. It would be great to be proved wrong and I hope I am. Otherwise it could be that you're in for a real towsing.

Looking at your current record it appears that the authorities have failed to learn enough. And to make it all work properly all the other parts are needed, like a good track and trace system, face masks, proper spacing and everything else.
It's a pain in the neck to do it all but it seems to work eventually. Fingers crossed.
 
Old Red Fart said:
Proper lockdowns are very hard work but it looks as though a good hardworking govt supported by Police and the Military if necessary is required to make it all work and the UK doesn't appear to have that. Plus the fact that the UK appears to have a sizable public minority who strongly disagree. That's the impression I have gained over the last 6 months. It would be great to be proved wrong and I hope I am. Otherwise it could be that you're in for a real towsing.

Looking at your current record it appears that the authorities have failed to learn enough. And to make it all work properly all the other parts are needed, like a good track and trace system, face masks, proper spacing and everything else.
It's a pain in the neck to do it all but it seems to work eventually. Fingers crossed.
Click to expand...
Absolutely correct ORF, it's OK bringing in rules but they do need enforcing more effectively, because as you say a significant minority for whatever reason don't want to follow them
 
in_the_top_one said:
Some good, reassuring news.

https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/university/colleges/mds/news/2020/11/covid-moss-cellular-immunity.aspx
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There was an article on this in yesterdays Guardian; that report could not determine if the antibodies present in the T cells would help or hinder immunity.

It certainly flies in the face of what the people at Randox Health told me; effectively that there would be no way of detecting the virus in your system after three Months.
 
in_the_top_one said:
I can't read all that but you should back up your allegation that we are being lied to.
Click to expand...

The data being used is from October 9th. So is out of date, they could have used more up to date data. Why wouldn’t they use that?
The figures they used, five days before the new tier restrictions came into effect, and researchers at Oxford University pointed out that if the modelling had been correct, deaths would now be around 1,000-a-day.

Instead, the current rolling seven day average is around 265.

Are they being truthful?
 
in_the_top_one said:
I can't read all that but you should back up your allegation that we are being lied to.
Click to expand...


Copied...

Sir Patrick Vallance and Professor Chris Whitty have been summoned before MPs to explain the evidence for a national lockdown, after their 4,000 deaths figure was questioned by scientists.

The pair will face the Science and Technology Select Committee on Tuesday afternoon, amid mounting concern that the graphs shown at a press conference on Saturday evening were out-of-date and alarmist.

Modelling presented by Sir Patrick, the government’s Chief Scientific Advisor, showed that under a worst case scenario 4,000 deaths-a-day could occur by December 20 - four times more than the worst day of the first peak.

However, the forecast was compiled on October 9, five days before new tier restrictions came into effect, and researchers at Oxford University pointed out that if the modelling had been correct, deaths would now be around 1,000-a-day.

Instead, the current rolling seven day average is around 265 and Monday’s death figure was just 136.

It has since emerged that the modelling was based on an 'R' rate of 1.3 to 1.5 and shown despite the Government publishing a rate of between 1.1 and 1.3 the day before the press conference.

Yesterday the government office for science refused to release the key to the graph explaining which groups had modelled the varying scenarios, or what parameters had been used, saying ‘relevant papers would be published shortly.

Science Committee chairman Greg Clark said: "This is an important moment in the handling of the pandemic. Parliament must have the chance to understand and question the evidence and rationale behind the new restrictions in advance of Wednesday's debate and vote.

"I am grateful to Sir Patrick Vallance and Professor Chris Whitty for having agreed immediately to my request to appear before the science and technology committee on Tuesday."

Last week, Sir Patrick said the three-tier restrictions were starting to have an impact and the 'R' rate was now clearly in decline. A graph shown at the press conference also illustrated a clear downward trend.

Professor Tim Spector, of King's College London, said a national lockdown was being implemented just as the second wave was "running out of steam in the worst affected areas".

Prof Spector said new data from the King’s app, which has been monitoring the spread since the first wave, showed that cases stopped growing in northern England four days ago.

Professor Carl Henegnhan of Oxford University also published a graph demonstrating that Liverpool cases have nearly halved since the peak on October 7.

“Am I missing something?” he said, referring to the decision to lockdown the country.

Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College, a member of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) group which produced the 4,000 death graph, admitted that the graph showed a situation where the tiers had little impact.

“The “up to 4000 deaths a day” scenarios represent preliminary work to generate a new reasonable worst case planning scenario to assist NHS and other government planning,” he said.

“The reasonable worst case is intended to be pessimistic, so these scenarios assumed an R value of 1.3-1.5 and that the tier system would have minimal impact.”

However Prof Ferguson said that even allowing for the effects of the current tier system, a second wave is still likely to exceed the first wave in hospital demands and deaths.
 
mao tse tung said:
There was an article on this in yesterdays Guardian; that report could not determine if the antibodies present in the T cells would help or hinder immunity.

It certainly flies in the face of what the people at Randox Health told me; effectively that there would be no way of detecting the virus in your system after three Months.
Click to expand...
They should have added "...using this test."
It is much harder to do the testing in this (preprint) paper than the type of test you had.

Perhaps you could link to the Guardian article and I'll try to interpret it for everyone but I'm horribly pushed for time this week.
Antibodies aren't really "in" T cells. Also not sure how antibodies w/could hinder immunity.


This might be useful for those interested.
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeli...-on-t-cells-antibody-levels-and-our-ignorance
Note that this article bemoaning all the things we don't know is from early July. It also, IMO, gives the impression that the serological testing that was going on was unaware of its limitations and was therefore useless. I very much doubt the scientists conducting those studies were in that mindset.

In any case, some of the gaps have been filled and the report I posted earlier is an example of one of those important holes in our knowledge being plugged by research.
 
strettea red said:
Come on MPs. You know what to do. Look at the science and vote against lockdown 2...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...allen-one-raising-hopes-lockdown-can-avoided/
Click to expand...

Copied...

Covid R-rate 'has fallen to one', raising hopes that lockdown could be avoided
Data from King’s College's app shows a slight fall in new cases in England

The R-rate in England has fallen to 1, King’s College has said, leading to hopes that a national lockdown can be avoided.

New data from the King’s ZOE app, which has been tracking symptoms and test results since the first wave, showed a slight fall in new cases in England.

Professor Tim Spector, who shared the update on Twitter, said: “More good news as the Zoe CSS app survey continues to show a plateauing and slight fall in new cases in England, Wales and Scotland with an R of 1.0.”

The new results are more evidence that the tier system is working and will put greater pressure on Boris Johnson to pause the national lockdown on Thursday.

Government scientists have already been criticised for showing out-of-date and alarmist graphs at a press conference on Saturday where national measures were announced.

Sir Patrick Vallance and Professor Chris Whitty showed future projections for an R-rate of between 1.3 and 1.5, even though they believed the rate was now 1.1 to 1.3, and were aware that the tier system was having an impact.

The King’s data suggests the r-rate may now be at 1, which would mean the pandemic is no longer increasing in some of the worst areas.

According to the King’s app, cases in northern England and the Midlands stopped increasing four days ago, although there is still some rise in the south, from a lower base. Cases in Liverpool have shown large declines since the city was placed into Tier 3.

Prof Spector has already questioned why the government is locking down the country when the disease appears to be ‘running out of steam’ in the worst affected areas.

Likewise, other experts said they could not understand why further restrictions were being imposed just as cases were beginning to fall.

Professor Carl Heneghan, director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said the R value in Liverpool is 'well below one at this moment in time'. He said there is a "problem" in Liverpool, but that cases in the city have halved and hospital admissions have "stabilised".

“You've got ... these pockets around the country where trusts, like Liverpool, have got into trouble with over half the patients being Covid patients,” he told BBC Radio 4's Today Programme.

“But let's look at the data, the data in Liverpool is showing cases have come down by about half, admissions have now stabilised, so, yes, there is a problem in Liverpool.

“But, actually, the tier restrictions... the people in Liverpool have dropped cases from about 490 a day down to 260 a day - a significant drop.

“The R value is well below one in Liverpool at this moment in time.”

Latest data from the most recent Public Health England (PHE) Weekly national Influenza and COVID19 surveillance report shows that the vast majority of outbreaks are happening in schools, workplaces and care homes and that the hospitality industry is a very low risk.

Out of 1,391 acute respiratory infection incidents reported in week 43, just 31 were linked to food outlet and restaurant settings - of which 23 were Covid.

In contrast, there were 397 incidents in care homes, 71 in hospitals, 311 in educational settings and 334 in workplaces, with a total of 803 Covid cases between them.

The figures suggest that closing shops, pubs and restaurants would do little to halt the spread
 
strettea red said:
Copied...

Sir Patrick Vallance and Professor Chris Whitty have been summoned before MPs to explain the evidence for a national lockdown, after their 4,000 deaths figure was questioned by scientists.

The pair will face the Science and Technology Select Committee on Tuesday afternoon, amid mounting concern that the graphs shown at a press conference on Saturday evening were out-of-date and alarmist.

Modelling presented by Sir Patrick, the government’s Chief Scientific Advisor, showed that under a worst case scenario 4,000 deaths-a-day could occur by December 20 - four times more than the worst day of the first peak.

However, the forecast was compiled on October 9, five days before new tier restrictions came into effect, and researchers at Oxford University pointed out that if the modelling had been correct, deaths would now be around 1,000-a-day.

Instead, the current rolling seven day average is around 265 and Monday’s death figure was just 136.

It has since emerged that the modelling was based on an 'R' rate of 1.3 to 1.5 and shown despite the Government publishing a rate of between 1.1 and 1.3 the day before the press conference.

Yesterday the government office for science refused to release the key to the graph explaining which groups had modelled the varying scenarios, or what parameters had been used, saying ‘relevant papers would be published shortly.

Science Committee chairman Greg Clark said: "This is an important moment in the handling of the pandemic. Parliament must have the chance to understand and question the evidence and rationale behind the new restrictions in advance of Wednesday's debate and vote.

"I am grateful to Sir Patrick Vallance and Professor Chris Whitty for having agreed immediately to my request to appear before the science and technology committee on Tuesday."

Last week, Sir Patrick said the three-tier restrictions were starting to have an impact and the 'R' rate was now clearly in decline. A graph shown at the press conference also illustrated a clear downward trend.

Professor Tim Spector, of King's College London, said a national lockdown was being implemented just as the second wave was "running out of steam in the worst affected areas".

Prof Spector said new data from the King’s app, which has been monitoring the spread since the first wave, showed that cases stopped growing in northern England four days ago.

Professor Carl Henegnhan of Oxford University also published a graph demonstrating that Liverpool cases have nearly halved since the peak on October 7.

“Am I missing something?” he said, referring to the decision to lockdown the country.

Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College, a member of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) group which produced the 4,000 death graph, admitted that the graph showed a situation where the tiers had little impact.

“The “up to 4000 deaths a day” scenarios represent preliminary work to generate a new reasonable worst case planning scenario to assist NHS and other government planning,” he said.

“The reasonable worst case is intended to be pessimistic, so these scenarios assumed an R value of 1.3-1.5 and that the tier system would have minimal impact.”

However Prof Ferguson said that even allowing for the effects of the current tier system, a second wave is still likely to exceed the first wave in hospital demands and deaths.
Click to expand...
Thanks. That's interesting. What I've seen of the presentation was truly awful from a communications perspective alone. Graphs going off the side of the screen, etc.
Rubbish.

Let's see how they get on in the select committee. If the tide has turned due to the Tiers or whatever, then we can end the lockdown. Fingers crossed.
 
strettea red said:
Copied...

Covid R-rate 'has fallen to one', raising hopes that lockdown could be avoided
Data from King’s College's app shows a slight fall in new cases in England

The R-rate in England has fallen to 1, King’s College has said, leading to hopes that a national lockdown can be avoided.

New data from the King’s ZOE app, which has been tracking symptoms and test results since the first wave, showed a slight fall in new cases in England.

Professor Tim Spector, who shared the update on Twitter, said: “More good news as the Zoe CSS app survey continues to show a plateauing and slight fall in new cases in England, Wales and Scotland with an R of 1.0.”

The new results are more evidence that the tier system is working and will put greater pressure on Boris Johnson to pause the national lockdown on Thursday.

Government scientists have already been criticised for showing out-of-date and alarmist graphs at a press conference on Saturday where national measures were announced.

Sir Patrick Vallance and Professor Chris Whitty showed future projections for an R-rate of between 1.3 and 1.5, even though they believed the rate was now 1.1 to 1.3, and were aware that the tier system was having an impact.

The King’s data suggests the r-rate may now be at 1, which would mean the pandemic is no longer increasing in some of the worst areas.

According to the King’s app, cases in northern England and the Midlands stopped increasing four days ago, although there is still some rise in the south, from a lower base. Cases in Liverpool have shown large declines since the city was placed into Tier 3.

Prof Spector has already questioned why the government is locking down the country when the disease appears to be ‘running out of steam’ in the worst affected areas.

Likewise, other experts said they could not understand why further restrictions were being imposed just as cases were beginning to fall.

Professor Carl Heneghan, director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said the R value in Liverpool is 'well below one at this moment in time'. He said there is a "problem" in Liverpool, but that cases in the city have halved and hospital admissions have "stabilised".

“You've got ... these pockets around the country where trusts, like Liverpool, have got into trouble with over half the patients being Covid patients,” he told BBC Radio 4's Today Programme.

“But let's look at the data, the data in Liverpool is showing cases have come down by about half, admissions have now stabilised, so, yes, there is a problem in Liverpool.

“But, actually, the tier restrictions... the people in Liverpool have dropped cases from about 490 a day down to 260 a day - a significant drop.

“The R value is well below one in Liverpool at this moment in time.”

Latest data from the most recent Public Health England (PHE) Weekly national Influenza and COVID19 surveillance report shows that the vast majority of outbreaks are happening in schools, workplaces and care homes and that the hospitality industry is a very low risk.

Out of 1,391 acute respiratory infection incidents reported in week 43, just 31 were linked to food outlet and restaurant settings - of which 23 were Covid.

In contrast, there were 397 incidents in care homes, 71 in hospitals, 311 in educational settings and 334 in workplaces, with a total of 803 Covid cases between them.

The figures suggest that closing shops, pubs and restaurants would do little to halt the spread
Click to expand...
Strikes me as the usual thing we have experienced all along, one lot of "experts" contradicting another lot.
 
strettea red said:
Copied...

Covid R-rate 'has fallen to one', raising hopes that lockdown could be avoided
Data from King’s College's app shows a slight fall in new cases in England

The R-rate in England has fallen to 1, King’s College has said, leading to hopes that a national lockdown can be avoided.

New data from the King’s ZOE app, which has been tracking symptoms and test results since the first wave, showed a slight fall in new cases in England.

Professor Tim Spector, who shared the update on Twitter, said: “More good news as the Zoe CSS app survey continues to show a plateauing and slight fall in new cases in England, Wales and Scotland with an R of 1.0.”

The new results are more evidence that the tier system is working and will put greater pressure on Boris Johnson to pause the national lockdown on Thursday.

Government scientists have already been criticised for showing out-of-date and alarmist graphs at a press conference on Saturday where national measures were announced.

Sir Patrick Vallance and Professor Chris Whitty showed future projections for an R-rate of between 1.3 and 1.5, even though they believed the rate was now 1.1 to 1.3, and were aware that the tier system was having an impact.

The King’s data suggests the r-rate may now be at 1, which would mean the pandemic is no longer increasing in some of the worst areas.

According to the King’s app, cases in northern England and the Midlands stopped increasing four days ago, although there is still some rise in the south, from a lower base. Cases in Liverpool have shown large declines since the city was placed into Tier 3.

Prof Spector has already questioned why the government is locking down the country when the disease appears to be ‘running out of steam’ in the worst affected areas.

Likewise, other experts said they could not understand why further restrictions were being imposed just as cases were beginning to fall.

Professor Carl Heneghan, director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said the R value in Liverpool is 'well below one at this moment in time'. He said there is a "problem" in Liverpool, but that cases in the city have halved and hospital admissions have "stabilised".

“You've got ... these pockets around the country where trusts, like Liverpool, have got into trouble with over half the patients being Covid patients,” he told BBC Radio 4's Today Programme.

“But let's look at the data, the data in Liverpool is showing cases have come down by about half, admissions have now stabilised, so, yes, there is a problem in Liverpool.

“But, actually, the tier restrictions... the people in Liverpool have dropped cases from about 490 a day down to 260 a day - a significant drop.

“The R value is well below one in Liverpool at this moment in time.”

Latest data from the most recent Public Health England (PHE) Weekly national Influenza and COVID19 surveillance report shows that the vast majority of outbreaks are happening in schools, workplaces and care homes and that the hospitality industry is a very low risk.

Out of 1,391 acute respiratory infection incidents reported in week 43, just 31 were linked to food outlet and restaurant settings - of which 23 were Covid.

In contrast, there were 397 incidents in care homes, 71 in hospitals, 311 in educational settings and 334 in workplaces, with a total of 803 Covid cases between them.

The figures suggest that closing shops, pubs and restaurants would do little to halt the spread
Click to expand...
This is good news.
I'm a big fan of the Zoe app (I hope everyone has it?) and Spector's team at Kings.
 
in_the_top_one said:
Thanks. That's interesting. What I've seen of the presentation was truly awful from a communications perspective alone. Graphs going off the side of the screen, etc.
Rubbish.

Let's see how they get on in the select committee. If the tide has turned due to the Tiers or whatever, then we can end the lockdown. Fingers crossed.
Click to expand...

I thought it was the aspect ratio on my telly at first, lol.

I know the link below is the Daily Mail, but...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ulated-data-terrify-England-locking-down.html
 
strettea red said:
The data being used is from October 9th. So is out of date, they could have used more up to date data. Why wouldn’t they use that?
The figures they used, five days before the new tier restrictions came into effect, and researchers at Oxford University pointed out that if the modelling had been correct, deaths would now be around 1,000-a-day.

Instead, the current rolling seven day average is around 265.

Are they being truthful?
Click to expand...

"Are they being truthful?"

Its a great question, but is being put to the wrong people.

I would have thought that the information, in the form of data, will be provided on a daily basis, to the relevant people in COBRA or whoever else it is dealing with this.

They will be the ones determining what figures are for public consumption, not the scientists; that will also be the case for whatever data was used to support the decision to lockdown again.

You can be absolutely certain that, when it comes to reinforcing the decision process, the worst figures available will be used and not the most recent; there's nothing more effective than putting the fear of God into people to get them to comply.

Its Boris and Hancock and Cummings who should be asked if they are being truthful or not, and you can bet your bollocks to a barn dance that they are not; but what do you do when people are dying?

The only realistic alternative is for them all to resign and allow people who know what they are doing manage the problem; that clearly is not going to happen.

But I can understand people railing against the latest measures, some of which appear arbitrary and pointless.
 
in_the_top_one said:
This is good news.
I'm a big fan of the Zoe app (I hope everyone has it?) and Spector's team at Kings.
Click to expand...

I have Zoe.
Just ventured out for the first time since having the virus. Walked to the village shop and back. I’m fooked!! Breathing out my arse like I’ve smoked all my life! Bugger.
 
in_the_top_one said:
They should have added "...using this test."
It is much harder to do the testing in this (preprint) paper than the type of test you had.

Perhaps you could link to the Guardian article and I'll try to interpret it for everyone but I'm horribly pushed for time this week.
Antibodies aren't really "in" T cells. Also not sure how antibodies w/could hinder immunity.


This might be useful for those interested.
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeli...-on-t-cells-antibody-levels-and-our-ignorance
Note that this article bemoaning all the things we don't know is from early July. It also, IMO, gives the impression that the serological testing that was going on was unaware of its limitations and was therefore useless. I very much doubt the scientists conducting those studies were in that mindset.

In any case, some of the gaps have been filled and the report I posted earlier is an example of one of those important holes in our knowledge being plugged by research.
Click to expand...


This was the article in yesterdays Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...nt-in-adults-six-months-after-first-infection

Despite the promising appearance of the article I could not conclude if it was that positive; especially with the following remark:

“I think this data is reassuring, potentially even encouraging — but it does not mean that people cannot get reinfected,”
 
da fuq said:
Pope serious question
Genuine one

Are you on the spectrum?

My partner has worked with children who are on the spectrum and reads Vital every now and again, just for shits and giggles, and she reckons that you definitely show repetitive behaviours and also other signs that are very telling to her
Click to expand...

Everyone's on a spectrum for something.
 
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