Season 19/20 Our Final Position Prediction.s
- Thread starter RaggedTrouseredPhil
- Start date
Made in Wigan
Vital Champions League
I’ve seen the last 3, albeit the derby one on tv, and we should have had 9 points, let alone a couple more. The reason we haven’t is primarily an ability to score from open play. In each gave we’ve had a one one to kill the game and each time fucked it up. I said after Bristol there was no one in our tram I’d trust to finish them (young geldhart aside) and stand by that. That is the problem. We’ve also wasted numerous other opportunities then the inevitable happens when we make crap substitutions that those individuals contribute to us conceding a sucker punch. If we can’t score we won’t win, so we won’t survive it’s as simple as that.
Stormin' Norman
Vital Squad Member
Made in Wigan
Vital Champions League
What's happened to the team bus bro?
It broke down, Cook put unleaded in instead of diesel.
Made in Wigan
Vital Champions League
As I said we did. Whether it’s down to lack of chances created, or lack of ability to finish them the end result is still the same.
Stormin' Norman
Vital Squad Member
walgarthjohn
Vital 1st Team Regular
If you can’t score goals your in trouble we have nothing at all up front. Only league one forwards like we have had for the last few seasons if we don’t spend big in jan we are down. Because Lowe and Moore are no we’re near good enough
ZAKKY
Vital Football Hero
walgarthjohn
Vital 1st Team Regular
I know that as well
Martinez1986
Vital Squad Member
mid table finish for me too much panicking again by usual suspects
The_Pon
Vital Reserves Team
It's not panic. It's realism.
We can't score goals. If you can't score, you can't win. If you can't win...
king_dezeeuw06
Vital Champions League
Stats taken from WhoScored.com, BeinSports.com, FootyStats.org, Transfermrkt, and SoccerStats.com (Things we are in the top 6 at in green, bottom 6 in red)
Home table - 7th
Away table - 23rd
Attack - 23rd
Defence -15th
Goals in open play - 24th
Defending in open play - 13th
Goals from Set pieces - joint 1st
Defending from Set pieces - joint 23rd
Long balls per game - 4th
Passing per game - 23rd
Pass acuracy - 21st
Shots per game - 18th
Shot accuracy - 19th
Goal conversion - joint 23rd
Total shots (including blocked shots) - 21st
Crosses per game - 14th
Tackles per game - 18th
Interceptions per game - 17th
Dribbles per game - 18th
Aerial duels - 6th
Failed to score - joint 22nd
Clean sheets - joint 4th (with 12 other teams)
Average Possesion - 19th
Dicipline - 23rd
Fouls per game - 4th
Averaging socring a goal every 103 mins
Average conceeding a goal ever 63 mins
Goals scored per game - 0.87
Goals conceeded per game - 1.40
Points per game - 1.00
Average age - 7th
Gross spend -10th
Net spend - 2nd (only Reading spent more than us after player sales accounted for)
24% of goals conceeded have been in the last 10 mins of games
We have conceeded equalisers in 50% of the times we have taken the lead.
We have equalised in 33% of the times we have fallen behind.
Average points to stay in this league over last 15 years - 47
Current points projection at current rate - 46
Current points projection at home at current rate approx - 40 (27 more than currently)
Current points projection away at current rate approx - 6 (4 more than currently)
Points to stay up in last 5 seasons:
18/19 - 41
17/18 - 42
16/17 - 52
15/16 - 41
14/15 - 42
Incidentally the points tally that Caldwell, Joyce and Barrow got in their car crash season would've kept us up in any of the last 5 seasons except the one they were in.
Home table - 7th
Away table - 23rd
Attack - 23rd
Defence -15th
Goals in open play - 24th
Defending in open play - 13th
Goals from Set pieces - joint 1st
Defending from Set pieces - joint 23rd
Long balls per game - 4th
Passing per game - 23rd
Pass acuracy - 21st
Shots per game - 18th
Shot accuracy - 19th
Goal conversion - joint 23rd
Total shots (including blocked shots) - 21st
Crosses per game - 14th
Tackles per game - 18th
Interceptions per game - 17th
Dribbles per game - 18th
Aerial duels - 6th
Failed to score - joint 22nd
Clean sheets - joint 4th (with 12 other teams)
Average Possesion - 19th
Dicipline - 23rd
Fouls per game - 4th
Averaging socring a goal every 103 mins
Average conceeding a goal ever 63 mins
Goals scored per game - 0.87
Goals conceeded per game - 1.40
Points per game - 1.00
Average age - 7th
Gross spend -10th
Net spend - 2nd (only Reading spent more than us after player sales accounted for)
24% of goals conceeded have been in the last 10 mins of games
We have conceeded equalisers in 50% of the times we have taken the lead.
We have equalised in 33% of the times we have fallen behind.
Average points to stay in this league over last 15 years - 47
Current points projection at current rate - 46
Current points projection at home at current rate approx - 40 (27 more than currently)
Current points projection away at current rate approx - 6 (4 more than currently)
Points to stay up in last 5 seasons:
18/19 - 41
17/18 - 42
16/17 - 52
15/16 - 41
14/15 - 42
Incidentally the points tally that Caldwell, Joyce and Barrow got in their car crash season would've kept us up in any of the last 5 seasons except the one they were in.
Last edited:
moonay
Vital Football Legend
That's excellent stuff there KDZ.
I'm sure everyone will read it their own way, and take from it what they want to justify their "position", so I'll go first:
- get more corners (we score off em), defend like bastards in the last ten mins (we concede far too many then), and improve the shot accuracy (just because we should) and we'll be fine.
I'm sure everyone will read it their own way, and take from it what they want to justify their "position", so I'll go first:
- get more corners (we score off em), defend like bastards in the last ten mins (we concede far too many then), and improve the shot accuracy (just because we should) and we'll be fine.
Roy Race
Vital Reserves Team
So, in conclusion, we are due to stay up again with 46 points. Job done!
What's everyone in a panic for?
king_dezeeuw06
Vital Champions League
I think you've not read it properly or you are cherry picking i said the overall average points to stay up is 47 and the season we went down under Caldwell, Barrow and Joyce 46 would have sent you down. 46 is not a safe bet.
But the bigger issue is you are banking on us keeping the current pace up there are 4 teams currently below us who would also need to continue on their current points per game ratio for that to be the case . 2 of them in Stoke and Boro wont do that over a full season - whoever the new Stoke manager is and whoever will eventually replace Woodgate have 2 very strong squads with natural goal scorers who have been horrendously under performing - they wont stay this bad and will eventually pull clear - we haven't got a trio like Ipswich, Bolton and Rotherham this season.
king_dezeeuw06
Vital Champions League
A lot of the stats told us what we already knew, but there were 3 facts that were quite suprising. The first being we were the worst team in the league last year at set pieces scoring only 5 all season and Dunkley scoring non. This season we've already topped that and are one of the best and Dunkleys outscored the majority of our forwards in the whole of last season. Not much appears to have changed other than who is crossing the ball in, having Williams and Mulgrew on delivery appears to have made the world of difference.
The second being we are the 2nd biggest Net spenders in the league - we knew we spent big by our standards at about 8m with no sales - but the majority of the league was very modest with their spending and many of the supposed big spenders actually made profit in the market, anyone who really went to town funded their business with player sales. It goes to show how vital succesful player trading is in the era of FFP where you can no longer max out the credit card.
The third one being we have the 7th highest average age, i wouldn't have thought we had what would've been considered to have older squad as most of our players are in their early to mid 20's, it appears like the division has a massive amount of young players - which probably emphasises the importance of having an efficent accademy.
Arthur_Itis
Vital Squad Member
Er, don't you remember the interview with Dunkley weeks ago when he said that the coaching team had been working a lot with him specifically on first contact from set pieces. I would suggest that this might have more to do with his successes this season rather than any other factor, so I'm not sure how you can conclude that "Not much appears to have changed".
Well done the coaching staff, well done Dunks.
TRUE BELIEVER
Vital Football Hero
Hang on a mo KDZ, you quote the last five seasons figures to stay up (average 43.6) and then our points projection at current rate is 46, so assuming we manage to stay on track with the prediction we will be safe. There is also the statistic that in 80% of the last five seasons we would have been safe with the points predicted.
Forgive me if I am getting this wrong but are you saying that we are in trouble or not because your figures tend to disprove your stance.
king_dezeeuw06
Vital Champions League
Over the last 15 seasons the points tally to stay in this division has been slighly higher than it has been compared to if you only look at the last 5 year - which included a year that would've seen a team go down well in excess of the average. Like any average it depends how many years you choose to include can adjust it - hence why i put both in for balance. The most points a team ever went down with was 54, it's very difficult to see that happeneing again so i'd say 55 points is a better figure to aim for to guarentee safety as if we get 46 we could still go.
Us being on track for a speculative 46 points is less my concern than i think 2 out of the 4 below us will not stay there.
