Season 19/20 Our Final Position Prediction.s | Page 3 | Vital Football

Season 19/20 Our Final Position Prediction.s

Prior to last week I'd predicted us 18th, I'm going to revise that upwards to 13th in light of the new signings.

I'm predicting Birmingham (managed by Pep Clotet, who has never recovered from us smashing his Oxford side for 7), Blackburn and Preston for the drop. The latter two is based on their transfer business this summer which has been as underwhelming as ours had been. Birmingham and Preston have both lost influential players and thusfar failed to replace them or have an natural heir within their squad. Preston are light up front, Stockley hasn't fired yet and Maguire doesn't suit what Neil wants him to do. Rovers I think have a lot of reasonable players but have become somewhat one-dimensional with everything going through Dack but clubs are getting wise to him and are starting to take him out of games. Their defence looks very suspect and Mulgrew in particular looked like he was getting further and further behind towards the end of last season. Luton, Barnsley, Millwall, Reading and Charlton I'm all expecting to be in and around the drop but I can see each having enough to keep them up.

Leeds and West Brom for promotion, with Fulham eventually getting their act in gear and sneaking into promotions through the play-offs. I reckon Huddersfield and Cardiff will take too long to get going so will miss out on the automatic spots but should be in and around the play-offs.
Have preston not just spent 2 million there record fee And blackburn signed a striker we were after if blackburn keep hold of Dack they will be no were near the bottom
 
We've done clever business and have solid professionals across the squad now. It is the best balance we've had in absolutely ages. That being said, we're shy of that little spark of quality that others possess, but I do feel cautiously optimistic that a top ten finish isn't outside of our reach this time around.

We can't have a horrible mid season like last season though, however I do think that was down to gaping holes in the squad, which we don't have now.
 
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Have preston not just spent 2 million there record fee And blackburn signed a striker we were after if blackburn keep hold of Dack they will be no were near the bottom
Yes, but I still reckon Preston are very light up front, and their fans certainly have questions about their defence. I saw Preston in pre-season and they huffed and puffed keeping possession but didn't look up to much. If Stockley starts firing then I will revise my opinion but at the moment he's shown nothing to say he can make it at this level. Maguire tries hard but I don't think he's cut out to be a striker in that team and the way Neil has them playing.

Rovers were poor towards the end of last season (they had a two month spell where the only team they beat was us!) and haven't strengthened that defence. In the back half of last season they kept only 3 clean sheets between the end of January and May, even we kept more than that with our poor defence. If Dack gets injured, gets sussed or just doesn't fancy it then Rovers don't really have anyone to turn to.
 
Yes, but I still reckon Preston are very light up front, and their fans certainly have questions about their defence. I saw Preston in pre-season and they huffed and puffed keeping possession but didn't look up to much. If Stockley starts firing then I will revise my opinion but at the moment he's shown nothing to say he can make it at this level. Maguire tries hard but I don't think he's cut out to be a striker in that team and the way Neil has them playing.

Rovers were poor towards the end of last season (they had a two month spell where the only team they beat was us!) and haven't strengthened that defence. In the back half of last season they kept only 3 clean sheets between the end of January and May, even we kept more than that with our poor defence. If Dack gets injured, gets sussed or just doesn't fancy it then Rovers don't really have anyone to turn to.
Interesting your thoughts but every one to there own,,,,, IF we finish higher then any of them 2 clubs i will be more than happy
 
Interesting your thoughts but every one to there own,,,,, IF we finish higher then any of them 2 clubs i will be more than happy
It's easy to make these predictions now, I'm relying on no-one remembering them at the end of the season if they are way out! :throw:
 
Yes, but I still reckon Preston are very light up front, and their fans certainly have questions about their defence. I saw Preston in pre-season and they huffed and puffed keeping possession but didn't look up to much. If Stockley starts firing then I will revise my opinion but at the moment he's shown nothing to say he can make it at this level. Maguire tries hard but I don't think he's cut out to be a striker in that team and the way Neil has them playing.

Rovers were poor towards the end of last season (they had a two month spell where the only team they beat was us!) and haven't strengthened that defence. In the back half of last season they kept only 3 clean sheets between the end of January and May, even we kept more than that with our poor defence. If Dack gets injured, gets sussed or just doesn't fancy it then Rovers don't really have anyone to turn to.
bet they are happy today
 
After 15 games a revised prediction:
We will finish 18th.

WBA & Leeds auto - Swansea play off winners.
Barnsley, Luton & Boro or Stoke to be relegated.
 
I can’t see 3 teams that will finish under us scoring goals is a big problem. Some on here thought Preston would go down
 
My previous prediction boiled down to: "Heart Says playoffs, head says 12th".

Revised prediction is: "Heart says lower mid table, head says 22nd/23rd"

But... I do still think we have the quality in the team for that 12th place finish. What we need is someone at the helm who can get playing in such a way as to show that quality. There's still time if the board do what's necessary by Christmas.
 
We can’t score or win away from home. It’s not a good combination. Unless that changes we’ll be relegated. Unfortunately we won’t address the scoring issue in January, we never do. And we won’t address the away form by sacking Cook. End result is therefore inevitable.
 
I never cease to be amazed by the propensity of much of our fanbase to take an overly negative outlook, even in the face of positive signs or decent performances.

Conceding a late winner at Derby
Conceding a late equaliser at Bristol
Conceding a late winner against Swansea ........ who subsequently went top of the league.

Yes, yes, I know, I can see the pattern myself. I can also understand how small margins are often the difference between teams. A mistake here, a missed chance there.

The team needs a confidence boost. They need a shitty win or two. They need to continue to believe that they're good enough.

I reckon they'll get all 3. We'll be fine. Like last season. Like when folk thought we were going to blow the lead in league 1.

I may be wrong of course. Then again, plenty of others were in the above two instances.
 
If it's a sign of a good team to win when when you play badly is it the sign of a bad team to lose when you play well? We dont play well that often so to not even make the most of the times we do is very concerning.

Conceeding late winners and equalisers has been killing us for a full calandar year - we've still not really worked out how to manage a game or keep concentration / composure to grind out a result. Away form is still a write off and i can't see us keeping up the 2 points per game at home ratio to hit the average points required to get to total needed to keep us up. I don't think we've really learned or evolved much since last season, we've lost our 2 talismans and we've got 1 up front who has had 3 one on ones with the keeper and somehow not even managed to make the keeper make a save. And the subs choices too often make us worse rather than better. I think the alarm bells have been ringing for so long we've become somewhat deaf to them. Geldhardt is the wildcard who could save our bacon but we wont use him enough to make the difference and our other best player Windass is seemingly in the bad books by not even getting on the bench.

Last season it was pretty obvious from the early outset that there were 3 teams worse than us and we had a buffer of the first 10 momentum fuelled games that allowed us to going into free fall for 6 months and avoid slipping into the bottom 3. This year the is no buffer and i dont think there will be 3 teams stay below us. I fancy Barnsley to finish bottom and Luton probably second bottom then 3rd bottom i think we are by far the most likely as Stoke and Boro will change managers and with the squads they have they will comfortably pull clear. Huddersfield and Millwall under their new managers will be fine. Hull and Charlton, Derby, Blackburn are not great but they seem to be able to keep the points ticking in better than us to keep their heads above water. Reading i think is our best bet of dragging someone below us but they've got a good team with fire power and they have improved under the new manager. They will outscore us and we can't keep them out so i find it hard to work out how we will finish above them.

I'd be very suprised if we finished above 21st, although i think finishing higher is possible as the league i think is quite weak, for me we currently haven't got a manager capable of getting the extra few % out of the players we have to turn those draws into wins and those loses into draws, etc and accumilate the extra points.
 
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Quite happy with my 20th prediction. If I’m wrong though, it’ll be because we finished lower not higher than 20th that’s for sure.

If it's a sign of a good team to win when when you play badly is it the sign of a bad team to lose when you play well? We dont play well that often so to not even make the most of the times we do is very concerning.

Conceeding late winners and equalisers has been killing us for a full calandar year - we've still not really worked out how to manage a game or keep concentration / composure to grind out a result. Away form is still a write off and i can't see us keeping up the 2 points per game at home ratio to hit the average points required to get to the average points total needed to keep us up. I don't think we've really learned or evolved much since last season, we've lost our 2 talismans and we've got 1 up front who has had 3 one on ones with the keeper and somehow not even managed to make the keeper make a save. I think the alarm bells have been ringing for so long we've become somewhat deaf to them.

Last season it was pretty obvious from the early outset that there were 3 teams worse than us and we had a buffer of the first 10 momentum fuelled games that allowed us to going into free fall for 6 months and avoid slipping into the bottom 3. This year the is no buffer and i dont think there will be 3 teams stay below us. I fancy Barnsley to finish bottom and Luton probably second bottom then 3rd bottom i think we are by far the most likely as Stoke and Boro will change managers and with the squads they have they will comfortably pull clear. Huddersfield and Millwall under their new managers will be fine. Hull and Charlton, Derby, Blackburn are not great but they seem to be able to keep the points ticking in better than us. Reading i think is our best bet of dragging someone below us but they've got a good team with fire power and they have improved under the new manager.

I'd be very suprised if we finished above 21st, although i think finishing higher is possible for me we currently haven't got a manager capable of getting the extra few % out of the players we have to turn those draws into wins and those loses into draws, etc and accumilate the extra points.
Very good point that will be brushed aside and ignored by the happy clappers.
 
We've got issues with the squad, there's no getting away from that. I thought the squad we had last year was probably as good as the final position showed, and this year, I thought we'd improved it (even though we lost players like Powell and Grigg and James went back to Chelsea). But, even though some of the signings have been/are becoming better, my patience with Moore in particular is wearing thin. And as he's playing such a vial role for us, his failure to score is hurting us, costing us points and costing us league position.

I thought before the season, probably in the 10th-14th area, hoping to be the outsider for a play off place. Now, i'd be happy just to stay up. The players we have should be good enough, so is it just our strikers that are to blame, or the way were set up to play? I'm not Cooks biggest fan, but I cant fault him for trying different formations. His substitutions have cost us though, and cost us points. So thats a factor.

As things are, Barnsley, Stoke, Middlesbrough and Luton look to be weaker sides more likely to go down than us (marginally in the case of Luton), if Middlesbrough stick with Woodgate, that's the bottom 3 (saying that as once Stoke get a new manager in, I can see them pulling away like Huddersfield). If/when Middlesbrough get someone new in, we take their place and go down.

That's as i see things now, obviously its a long season and a lot can happen. Reading could get caught up again, so could Millwall (unlikely with Rowett though), Blackburn, Charlton ... anyone really. And if we can start scoring and turn our recent better performances into wins and points, we'll pull clear.

So in short, potentially 22nd if everything stays as is, expecting 14th-16th if we pick up some wins, and i we can start winning away from home ... optimistic 9th!
 
If it's a sign of a good team to win when when you play badly is it the sign of a bad team to lose when you play well? We dont play well that often so to not even make the most of the times we do is very concerning.
......

As I'm sure you're aware KDZ, the two things are mutually exclusive. It's oft said that that the team who wins the league doesn't always play the best football, but they find ways to win games, even when not playing well.

What I was trying to say was that (though I haven't seen any of the last 3 games) I believe from reports that our application and performance were far better than previous games, and we were unlucky not to come away with (at least) a couple more points.

As for not closing out games, I agree to an extent, but this is where players need to take a little responsibility - regardless of substitutions. Individual errors have cost us far too dearly.

Lets hope that our visit to Stoke - both performance and result wise - follows on from our last visit there.
 
I never cease to be amazed by the propensity of much of our fanbase to take an overly negative outlook, even in the face of positive signs or decent performances.

Conceding a late winner at Derby
Conceding a late equaliser at Bristol
Conceding a late winner against Swansea ........ who subsequently went top of the league.

Yes, yes, I know, I can see the pattern myself. I can also understand how small margins are often the difference between teams. A mistake here, a missed chance there.

The team needs a confidence boost. They need a shitty win or two. They need to continue to believe that they're good enough.

I reckon they'll get all 3. We'll be fine. Like last season. Like when folk thought we were going to blow the lead in league 1.

I may be wrong of course. Then again, plenty of others were in the above two instances.

Agreed. I understand why people moan and I understand why there's frustration but consider the following:

In league one there were many saying we were going to blow it, Blackburn were going to leave us behind and that Shrewsbury had more fight. They didn't, we won the league. Then the same people shifted to comments such as " We were lucky, if Blackburn had a good start they'd have finished above us" etc etc.

Last season we had thread after thread of how we were going to go down and end up like Bolton. We didn't, we stayed up by a considerable margin in the end. Surprise surprise the expected comments came, "We were lucky there were 3 really bad teams", "it's the worst this division has ever been".

Guess what, we're seeing it again this season, "We'll stay up by the skin of our teeth if we're lucky", "Can't see how we will stay up". Well, we will and will probably end up mid-table. Then it'll be "we were lucky (insert names of selected teams) imploded/had so many injuries/sacked their manager/didn't sack their manager soon enough". Then don't forget the "everone is shit in this division, we should have been in the play offs, look at Preston, not good enough, it's the worst division ever"

In league 1 we were expected to go up and we did, without any real glitches. Last season the aim was to stay up and we did. This season the aim is mid-table and, from what we've seen so far we look like a mid-table side in a division where everyone is capable of beating everybody.
 
As I'm sure you're aware KDZ, the two things are mutually exclusive. It's oft said that that the team who wins the league doesn't always play the best football, but they find ways to win games, even when not playing well.

What I was trying to say was that (though I haven't seen any of the last 3 games) I believe from reports that our application and performance were far better than previous games, and we were unlucky not to come away with (at least) a couple more points.

As for not closing out games, I agree to an extent, but this is where players need to take a little responsibility - regardless of substitutions. Individual errors have cost us far too dearly.

Lets hope that our visit to Stoke - both performance and result wise - follows on from our last visit there.

Last 3 games have been better for sure, but utlimately we improved in the areas that didn't make the difference to the results - putting the ball in and keeping the ball out of either goal. While i welcome the drastically improved intensity and application in between either end i fear that we lack the expertise in the camp to fix the issues. If you are amazing at holding a lead but low scoring you can grind out results, or if you are crap at defending a lead but have goals in you then you've got the potential to win games - being the lowest scorers overall in the league with only 5 goals in open play in 15 games being soft at the back is almost certainly relegation material. I think the league is very weak and we are still struggling.
 
Agreed. I understand why people moan and I understand why there's frustration but consider the following:

In league one there were many saying we were going to blow it, Blackburn were going to leave us behind and that Shrewsbury had more fight. They didn't, we won the league. Then the same people shifted to comments such as " We were lucky, if Blackburn had a good start they'd have finished above us" etc etc.

Last season we had thread after thread of how we were going to go down and end up like Bolton. We didn't, we stayed up by a considerable margin in the end. Surprise surprise the expected comments came, "We were lucky there were 3 really bad teams", "it's the worst this division has ever been".

Guess what, we're seeing it again this season, "We'll stay up by the skin of our teeth if we're lucky", "Can't see how we will stay up". Well, we will and will probably end up mid-table. Then it'll be "we were lucky (insert names of selected teams) imploded/had so many injuries/sacked their manager/didn't sack their manager soon enough". Then don't forget the "everone is shit in this division, we should have been in the play offs, look at Preston, not good enough, it's the worst division ever"

In league 1 we were expected to go up and we did, without any real glitches. Last season the aim was to stay up and we did. This season the aim is mid-table and, from what we've seen so far we look like a mid-table side in a division where everyone is capable of beating everybody.

I never thought we'd not go up - i said we'd up at Champions and put my money where my mouth was and few hundred quid with the bookies.

I thought we were in trouble last year but thought 4th bottom was most likely. We were 3rd bottom below Rotherham during the Leeds game but that miracle at our end and a missed hand ball in the Swansea and Rotherham game swung things back in our favour and the following dead rubbers masked how close we came to disaster.

This season we are in a worse position than we were last season without Powells goals / creativity, James brilliance and no 5 wins in first 10 buffer. The problems were there last year can't see out games, can't score, can't win away, can't score in open play and don't seem to have been fixed, there aren't 3 weaker teams on paper than us this season.

Because we escaped disaster in the past isn't in itself a reason we will get away with it again - i think you judge on what you have seen this season and I personally can't see the evidence that makes me think we are suddenly going to stop leaking goals under pressure, become better at managing leads, start scoring more often, scoring in open play start winning away. I've seen shoot of hope we might play a bit better in the last 3 games comapred to the terrible displays we put in most games prior to that but those performances didn't actually make me think any of the above issues are on the verge of turning around. I hope i'm wrong but i feel most of the arguments that it will be ok are more based on hope rather than actual what we've seen on the pitch.