Galvin's Shinpads
Vital Football Legend
So with the 'Yes' side for independence and the 'No' side to remain part of Britain, what say you on this upcoming vote?
ahx00 - 12/9/2014 12:56
Couldn't care less if they stay or go. I wouldn't offer any devo-max, or similar, offerings to try and appease them, i'd just let them make their choice. Once they're gone, they're gone. They can pay to set up their own national services.
I'm a petty person though, I guess.
80deg16minW - 12/9/2014 13:58
This is being watched by Canadians with interest. Quebec and their threats to separate are treated with the same sort of kid gloves until referendum time and then it gets a bit silly. But it always simmers.
Would Scotland's finances allow them to enter the EU?
Spursex - 12/9/2014 14:33
80deg16minW - 12/9/2014 13:58
This is being watched by Canadians with interest. Quebec and their threats to separate are treated with the same sort of kid gloves until referendum time and then it gets a bit silly. But it always simmers.
Would Scotland's finances allow them to enter the EU?
Probably, in due course - depends on how little or much cooperation there would be over the pound; people simply don't realise that the lender of last resort for Scotland is the BOE, and the local Scottish banks operating Balance sheets are paper thin - how much they could raise and at what price from the International markets would be an acid test and every market - led indication so far is that they're be paying seriously high rates. Rates that over the medium term and given their project revenues would already have them teetering on the brink of running massive deficits.
I suspect the better question might be how long will they have to wait for EU membership, because they'll need to seek it pretty quickly as they know as well as the rest of the EU they'd be one of the larger net beneficiaries..
On the plus side, staying outside the EU gives them the ability to do what they like, pretty much when they like and stick two fingers up to the EU...
80deg16minW - 12/9/2014 14:39
Spursex - 12/9/2014 14:33
80deg16minW - 12/9/2014 13:58
This is being watched by Canadians with interest. Quebec and their threats to separate are treated with the same sort of kid gloves until referendum time and then it gets a bit silly. But it always simmers.
Would Scotland's finances allow them to enter the EU?
Probably, in due course - depends on how little or much cooperation there would be over the pound; people simply don't realise that the lender of last resort for Scotland is the BOE, and the local Scottish banks operating Balance sheets are paper thin - how much they could raise and at what price from the International markets would be an acid test and every market - led indication so far is that they're be paying seriously high rates. Rates that over the medium term and given their project revenues would already have them teetering on the brink of running massive deficits.
I suspect the better question might be how long will they have to wait for EU membership, because they'll need to seek it pretty quickly as they know as well as the rest of the EU they'd be one of the larger net beneficiaries..
On the plus side, staying outside the EU gives them the ability to do what they like, pretty much when they like and stick two fingers up to the EU...
Let's vote for independence. Then let's join the EU.
I wonder if anyone else sees as much humour in that as I do.
Replacing British bureaucrats with French bureaucrats. I feel like Benny Hill.
Welshtel - 12/9/2014 16:04
I care very much for the UK remaining intact as a union. I also resent the Scots (those that are looking to vote yes) for wanting to divide this country. Anyone will tell you that there is strength in standing together. We have been together for 300 years now as a union and have put our differences behind us and for the good of the whole have stood shoulder to shoulder in all the wars etc. To say that we don't wish to stand by each other now when we share these islands and are in such close proximity to each other as countries, is just plain stupid. And for what? People like Alex Salmond should be ashamed for even suggesting that one of us should break away from the others.
All those years ago we became a union, that wasn't easy. We have a common currency and so much more in common like health services and social funding. Some areas, like Scotland have high demands on social funding. How will they sustain that in future? Oil is going to run out after a while and will they expect us to bail them out when it does? No, they will have no right to. What about the defence of this country? Will they expect us to jump to their rescue if they do something stupid as an autonomous state and get themselves in bother diplomatically? No, they would have to provide their own armed forces and sort out their own problems. And what about borders? Hadrians wall? No one allowed over the border? If foreigners take a ferry to Scotland and they are not controlled as they are to some degree now, will they just be allowed to come in unhindered because they have a new route?
Alex Salmond and all his cronies haven't thought out everything, there are too many unanswered questions and a HUGE decision CANNOT be taken like this on a whim. Will they want to be a republic next? And what problems will that bring? I think this guy is VERY DANGEROUS AND SO IS THE WHOLE THING. The process is quietly moving along and soon the referendum will be on us and if it's a quick YES verdict, without proper answers in hand before it happens, it could cost us HUGELY AS A WHOLE COUNTRY, not just for Scotland (which I think it will be catastrophic for, it's a massive step to set out on your own, and they can't expect us to help them become isolated from us). I like the Scots, as I like all our parts, We're British, that's a 'complete' term and I'm proud to be British.
We all have some unlikeable parts but they are not bad enough to break up the union for, we need to work together and sort them with decent understanding.
I hope the Scots who are thinking of stepping away, alone, will seriously think about what they are doing and don't go ahead with this fad which some unscrupulous polititian has dreamed up to get attention for himself.
Spursex - 13/9/2014 07:39
Welshtel - 12/9/2014 16:04
I care very much for the UK remaining intact as a union. I also resent the Scots (those that are looking to vote yes) for wanting to divide this country. Anyone will tell you that there is strength in standing together. We have been together for 300 years now as a union and have put our differences behind us and for the good of the whole have stood shoulder to shoulder in all the wars etc. To say that we don't wish to stand by each other now when we share these islands and are in such close proximity to each other as countries, is just plain stupid. And for what? People like Alex Salmond should be ashamed for even suggesting that one of us should break away from the others.
All those years ago we became a union, that wasn't easy. We have a common currency and so much more in common like health services and social funding. Some areas, like Scotland have high demands on social funding. How will they sustain that in future? Oil is going to run out after a while and will they expect us to bail them out when it does? No, they will have no right to. What about the defence of this country? Will they expect us to jump to their rescue if they do something stupid as an autonomous state and get themselves in bother diplomatically? No, they would have to provide their own armed forces and sort out their own problems. And what about borders? Hadrians wall? No one allowed over the border? If foreigners take a ferry to Scotland and they are not controlled as they are to some degree now, will they just be allowed to come in unhindered because they have a new route?
Alex Salmond and all his cronies haven't thought out everything, there are too many unanswered questions and a HUGE decision CANNOT be taken like this on a whim. Will they want to be a republic next? And what problems will that bring? I think this guy is VERY DANGEROUS AND SO IS THE WHOLE THING. The process is quietly moving along and soon the referendum will be on us and if it's a quick YES verdict, without proper answers in hand before it happens, it could cost us HUGELY AS A WHOLE COUNTRY, not just for Scotland (which I think it will be catastrophic for, it's a massive step to set out on your own, and they can't expect us to help them become isolated from us). I like the Scots, as I like all our parts, We're British, that's a 'complete' term and I'm proud to be British.
We all have some unlikeable parts but they are not bad enough to break up the union for, we need to work together and sort them with decent understanding.
I hope the Scots who are thinking of stepping away, alone, will seriously think about what they are doing and don't go ahead with this fad which some unscrupulous polititian has dreamed up to get attention for himself.
I'm not sure you can call it 'a fad' although I understand why you'd consider it like that.
They think being 'independent' will mean low taxes, high benefits, they believe they'd have a very cushy future as North Sea oil and gas revenues would negate the need to become net wealth creators.
The North Sea's leading experts have debunked Salmond's claims for the reserves - but it seems the yes voters have complete and utter faith in his unsubstantiated claims - that's they're right and they're choice.
And again today yet another report suggests they'll be facing financial Armageddon: (I still can't help but think the thought of ending labour as a political force in the the rest of the UK, means that it's a price worth paying!!)..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11093574/Scotland-heading-for-a-Great-Depression-after-a-Yes-vote.html
Scotland heading for a 'Great Depression' after a Yes vote.
Deutsche Bank warns a vote for independence would be a historic mistake as the Chancellor and the Bank of England's Governor disclose they have pulled out of next weekend's G20 meeting to prepare for the aftermath
Deutsche Bank has dismissed Alex Salmond's claim leaving the UK would be straightforward, saying it would be a mistake of historic proportions
Deutsche Bank has dismissed Alex Salmond's claim leaving the UK would be straightforward, saying it would be a mistake of historic proportions Photo: Andrew Milligan/PA
By Simon Johnson, Scottish Political Editor
8:09PM BST 12 Sep 2014
Britain faces a period of severe economic turbulence if Scotland votes for independence next week, economists warned, as the prospect of a Yes vote threatened a new financial crisis.
A report from a respected financial advisory firm said that investors were already pulling money out of the UK at the fastest pace since the "credit crisis" of 2008.
Gordon Brown speaks during a NO rally in Glasgow (EPA)
CrossBorder Capital said the net flow of capital out of Britain hit £16.8 billion in August, the highest level seen since Lehman Brothers collapsed.
Michael Howell, managing director, said outflows from the UK now look to be intensifying "with the possibility of Scottish independence coming to the front of investors’ minds".
"Sterling outflows have been an issue since the end of June, but they really gathered pace in August," he said.
Meanwhile, a study by Deutsche Bank said a Yes vote for Scottish independence would "go down in history as a political and economic mistake" on a par with Winston Churchill’s decision in 1925 to return the pound to the Gold Standard or the failures by the Federal Reserve in America that triggered the Great Depression in the 1930s.
It warned that Scotland risked a similar depression if voters backed the Yes campaign on Thursday, and described the desire for independence as an "incomprehensible" one which could have negative consequences "far beyond" what people had imagined.
Gordon Brown said the Deutsche Bank report showed that Scotland was "in danger of falling through an economic trapdoor".
With the battle over independence reaching fever pitch on the final weekend of campaigning, George Osborne, the Chancellor, announced he was withdrawing from a crucial G20 summit next weekend because of the risk that a vote for independence in Thursday’s referendum could plunge the UK economy back into turmoil.
Mr Osborne said a Yes vote would have "permanent consequences" for the British economy and announced that he would not attend next weekend’s meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors in Cairns, Australia.
Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, also announced that he would return early from the meeting to be back in time for the referendum result.
As another opinion poll showed the result on a knife edge, with 51 per cent opposed and 49 per cent in favour, Mr Osborne said they could not be abroad when the result was declared because of the "economic risks" that could immediately follow.
A survey by Bloomberg predicted the pound could tumble as much as 10 per cent in the event of a Yes vote.
On another dramatic day in the independence campaign:
Warnings about the dire economic consequences of separation intensified, with Britain’s largest mobile phone companies preparing to issue an unprecedented joint statement about the price rises that would follow;
As David Cameron encouraged more companies to speak out, Sir Richard Branson and the chief executives of Marks and Spencer, the Kingfisher DIY group and the Timpson shoe repair chain added their voices to the chorus of business opposition;
UBS, the global financial services giant, echoed Deutsche Bank by predicting independence would prompt a recession in a separate Scotland almost on the scale of that which accompanied the collapse of its two major banks;
The Chinese government appeared to support the No campaign by saying it wanted "stability" in the UK economy;
JIm Sillars (left) warned that there would be a “day of reckoning” for businesses (Rex)
Jim Sillars, the former SNP deputy leader, warned that companies who have opposed separation face a "day of reckoning" after a Yes vote, while Alex Salmond accused the Prime Minister of orchestrating a big business scare campaign against Scots.
Disclosing his decision not to attend the G20 at a press conference, Mr Osborne said: "It’s important given the economic risks of one particular outcome of that referendum that I am here in the UK and the Governor of the Bank of England has independently come to the same conclusion."
Asked if this was a "sign of panic", he said: "It is sensible given we have got this referendum. They don’t come round every month. It’s a very big moment for our country. It’s a very big decision with permanent consequences."
He referred to economic risks highlighted by City analysts, citing a report by Credit Suisse that predicted a separate Scotland would fall into a "deep recession" and would lead to a run on deposits in Scottish-based banks.
In a foreword to the Deutsche Bank report, David Folkerts-Landau, its chief economist, said everyone has a right to self-determination but that some political decisions could have negative consequences far beyond what voters might imagine.
"We feel that we are on the threshold of one such moment. A Yes vote for Scottish independence on Thursday would go down in history as a political and economic mistake as large as Winston Churchill’s decision in 1925 to return the pound to the Gold Standard or the failure of the Federal Reserve to provide sufficient liquidity to the US banking system, which we now know brought on the Great Depression in the US," he said. "These decisions – well-intentioned as they were – contributed to years of depression and suffering and could have been avoided had alternative decisions been taken."
He said the UK’s financial institutions provide stability and certainty but he warned a separate Scotland would have to "severely" rein in spending or increase taxes to establish credibility on the international money markets.
"While it may sound simple and costless for a nation to exit a 300 year-old union, nothing could be further from the truth," he said, before concluding that the economic case for independence was "incomprehensible".
He predicted that the main effects of independence, with uncertainty about its currency, would be that Scottish residents would move their cash and assets to England and financial institutions would also move south.
If Scotland tried to continue using the pound, it would find its interest rates being set by the Bank of England with no regard to Scottish conditions.
Banks in Scotland would have to reduce their lending to shore up their assets and, as result, an independent Scottish government would have to raise taxes to find the money for public spending.
Ongoing uncertainty over what currency an independent Scotland might use in the event of a Yes vote has plagued the referendum, and unsettled major financial institutions.
UBS predicted Scotland’s GDP would nosedive by between 4 and 5 per cent after a Yes vote as the country’s banking sector relocated to England. It said Scottish GDP fell 6.7 per cent in 2009 after the collapse of Royal Bank of Scotland and Bank of Scotland.
Scottish companies and households would suffer "some degree of a credit crunch" without clarity on the currency and the banking system, the report also predicted.
It repeated Mr Carney’s warnings that it would need tens of billions of pounds of reserves to continue using the pound without a formal currency union.
For a separate Scotland to support its currency arrangements, meet its deficit and set up a new state, the report estimated it would need to generate financial reserves of between £50 billion and £72 billion. That is the equivalent of £9,000 to £13,000 per person north of the Border.
Danny Alexander, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, said last night: "The eyes of the world are on the Scottish nationalists and they don’t like what they see. Global financiers UBS are telling the world that if Scotland votes Yes we will be plunged into an economic mess."
Spurfect11 - 14/9/2014 08:09
"Westminster doesn't understand our needs!" ......... but Brussels does eh?
Galvin's Shinpads - 14/9/2014 21:59
The Union Flag is going to look kinda funny without the navy blue!
Bazali - 14/9/2014 20:59
I moved up here to Scotland last month and love it here in the Borders where Alex Salmon is thought of as a huge joke with virtually a 100% "No" vote!
Fiscally it would be a disaster and most of the "yes" vote is centred around Glasgow and Edinburgh where the natives still think that they're on the end of a "pike" at Bannockburn!!
As i remind anyone of them i meet, Flodden Field is less than 10 miles away...........
I dont think the polls are correct and its not as close as they are making out so i will predict a resounding "No" vote and Alex Salmon will elope with Nicola Sturgeon!
But sorry Spursex i also think Labour will get in next May and George Galloway agrees with me so it must be true!!
Willietheyid - 15/9/2014 10:24
I originate from the Scottish Borders and for me I would be in favour of the yes vote, personally my opinion on MP's and Governments are that they are all liars, the surrounding towns in the borders where I came from were thriving 25 years ago with industries in electronics and the woolen trade (Lyle and Scott, Pringle among others) huge employers that have either moved or down scaled operations in the area, each time the heart being removed from each town.
Going home and driving through these towns that were once bustling and vibrant are now ghost towns.
The blame does not fall purely with Westminster but I feel there has to be change, Alec Salmond will not last if Independence were to go through, the people will make sure of that.
I certainly don't think either Cameron, Clegg or Milliband have done any good on their visits to Scotland as they are not prepared to speak directly to the people, it's all bs for the media and the BBC should hang their heads in shame with their corrupt coverage, any doubt check Alex Salmonds words with Nick Robinson where it was reported Salmond couldn't answer and in their edit he couldn't, Youtube shows different.
My question is why are Westminster so desperate to keep Scotland if we are all take, take, taking?