Current points and maximum points each side can get.
Forest (69)- 78 (Swansea, Barnsley, Stoke)
Cardiff (64)- 73* (Derby, Boro, Hull)
Swansea (63)- 75 (Leeds, Forest, Bristol, Reading)
Preston (62)- 71 (Brentford, Birmingham, Bristol)
Milwall (62)- 71 (Blackburn, QPR, Huddersfield)
Derby (61)- 70* (Cardiff, Leeds, Birmingham)
Blackburn (60)- 69 (Millwall, Reading, Luton)
*Not a lot of cross games here, but it's worth noting that Cardiff and Derby can't both hit their maximum.
What we need is simple. We need Leeds to do their job tomorrow, and then we need to not lose to Swansea. A defeat and draw with us lowers their maximum points to 70, equal to what we would have but with a goal difference deficit of at least -7.
I reckon what will happen is that we will stumble to the finish line.
Draw with Swansea
Draw with Barnsley
Get to 71 points, which with other results will end up being enough
And then beat Stoke to reach a respectable 74