Oh Dear Oh Dear Oh Dear | Page 4 | Vital Football

Oh Dear Oh Dear Oh Dear

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Leaving us after the transfer window did seem odd. And not wanting to start a new job in the summer does seem out of the comfort zone for them. But maybe they wanted/needed that test.

Their career to date has all been about success. Playoffs, championships. What they haven’t yet demonstrated is turning around a bad start, surviving, or a great escape.

The higher you go, most football management jobs will come up when a club is struggling. There are fewer jobs to go ‘upwards’ to. And lots of sackings happen during the season.
To get a job in the premier it is even more extreme. Plus, outside of the top six or 8 at premier level the rest are looking at the ability to survive.

If they are really aiming high, dealing with this situation at Huddersfield has the possibility to add to their cv, and set them up for the next step... they could even do one season of survival there, and a second season play-offs. Where could they be then? A long way ahead of where they were with us - no new investment, and a fair way short of the required L1 budget.

Good luck to them. But as always uti.
 
nlondonimp said:
A long way ahead of where they were with us - no new investment, and a fair way short of the required L1 budget.
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You love your 'no new investment' line. I don't think there's anyone else on here who talks about it as much as you do. It's probably not intended, but it comes across as 'more, more, more' and ungrateful. We used to chuckle on here that someone could put £1m in and someone would moan it's not £1m and 50p...

What is the 'required' L1 budget out of curiosity, given that it's heavily skewed by your Sunderland, Ipswich types?
 
Luke Imp said:
You love your 'no new investment' line. I don't think there's anyone else on here who talks about it as much as you do. It's probably not intended, but it comes across as 'more, more, more' and ungrateful. We used to chuckle on here that someone could put £1m in and someone would moan it's not £1m and 50p...

What is the 'required' L1 budget out of curiosity, given that it's heavily skewed by your Sunderland, Ipswich types?
Click to expand...

The irony being there was significant new investment over the summer, reflected in the calibre of players we’ve signed. But clearly not enough for some.
 
WellingtonImp said:
I keep hearing “...everyone here would do the same if offered that increase” or similar. While I agree many/most would ...it is very wrong to say everyone.

The angst people have is that the Cowleys made things personal, building their report with the City and fans on a very emotional and personal level. It was refreshing, but it was all flannel. It’s fine to try and inspire or motivate, but they sold us all an emotional attachment, and then bolted (at the worst possible time). They achieved great things but their legacy is unfortunately tarnished. Maybe that will heal over time. I hope so.

I sometime wonder if our success, and how we embraced them, scared them, knowing that at some point they wouldn’t be able to keep it up. The first couple of seasons they looked tired and pushed the behavioural boundaries a bit with their dark arts, but last season and this, they appeared more fraught and tetchy, rather than just tired.

Anyhow, there are some people, that if they truly meant what they said, the legacy would transcend the money and mean more. You see that in some players, those that shun the millions to stay with a smaller Club (still on a very decent wedge) that they have formed a real attachment to.
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Who are these players who have shunned millions? Seriously, the Cowleys never played full professional
Football, were on teachers salary for several years and then maybe around 130k at Lincoln for 2years. Can you name many (any) names of footballers or managers who in a similar situation have turned down a million pound plus salary?
 
Luke Imp said:
You love your 'no new investment' line. I don't think there's anyone else on here who talks about it as much as you do. It's probably not intended, but it comes across as 'more, more, more' and ungrateful. We used to chuckle on here that someone could put £1m in and someone would moan it's not £1m and 50p...

What is the 'required' L1 budget out of curiosity, given that it's heavily skewed by your Sunderland, Ipswich types?
Click to expand...
“We estimate that we will probably need up to a £1 million more to be able to be any kind of threat in League One in terms of our performance on the pitch

“And in terms of getting us into the top half of League One and again with an outside chance of a play-off place, we know we are going to have to find another £1 million from somewhere to make that happen, should we get promoted.

“However, I do believe the investment is there should that happen so I’m not too afraid of what the future might hold if we do go into League One because I’m confident we will be able to find that extra £1 million we will need to give to the pro budget in order to improve our playing staff and give us a realistic chance of doing well in League One.”

https://www.lincolnshirelive.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/bob-dorrian-says-imps-ready-1454933
 
nlondonimp said:
“We estimate that we will probably need up to a £1 million more to be able to be any kind of threat in League One in terms of our performance on the pitch

“And in terms of getting us into the top half of League One and again with an outside chance of a play-off place, we know we are going to have to find another £1 million from somewhere to make that happen, should we get promoted.

“However, I do believe the investment is there should that happen so I’m not too afraid of what the future might hold if we do go into League One because I’m confident we will be able to find that extra £1 million we will need to give to the pro budget in order to improve our playing staff and give us a realistic chance of doing well in League One.”

https://www.lincolnshirelive.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/bob-dorrian-says-imps-ready-1454933
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That doesn't translate into a figure, though, so what is the 'required' L1 budget and what does a 'fair way short' equate to?
 
Luke Imp said:
That doesn't translate into a figure, though, so what is the 'required' L1 budget and what does a 'fair way short' equate to?
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Actually there has been some new investment over the summer... according to the holding company investments. So no new investment was the wrong thing to say.
Re: ‘fair way short’ maybe as of now, keeping it in simple terms, it is the difference between the £1million of investment that Dorrian talked about needing, and the amount that actually came in over the summer.
Of course the tv money went up too, but then all clubs get that.

Also, the holding company investments have been steady... so the club could well raise the whole amount that Dorrian talked about but it may take the whole season to build up.

Uti.

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/07895367/filing-history
 
Luke Imp said:
That doesn't translate into a figure, though, so what is the 'required' L1 budget and what does a 'fair way short' equate to?
Click to expand...

The Salary Cost Management Protocol states 60 per cent of turnover, not including football fortune, equity injections and investment, can be spent on player wages in League One.

Our turnover is £5.2m or thereabouts, so we can spend £3.1m on wages this year. Although I'm not entirely sure we spend to the limit, the transfer dealings (releasing Gilks and Wilson to free up wages), suggest we do.

Mr Nates is on record as saying that exact figure (£3.1m) is about average for the division - although I reckon he's talking median rather than mean. So we're not poor, not swimming in resources, but bang on median.

If that budget is spread across say 22 players, there is an average of £140,000 each, or £2,700 a week. Not quite sure if the SCMP includes non-playing staff, but it does state youth development players on professional contracts are not included in the cap. So if JAS and Chapman do not even count I'm not sure why the data analysts would either.

I don't think that's a particularly bad average wage for a third tier team. We have a 'required' budget to compete and pay for players who can keep us in the division.

However, and it's a big however, the top tier of clubs in League One (so basically the automatic promotion seekers) spend significantly more. Portsmouth spent around £6m after promotion and probably spend more now, Ipswich are between £5m-£8m this year, and Sunderland probably more (they had a target of £9m last season). The tier below them, looking for the playoffs, again spend far more than the median.

So to push our budget by £1m would see us rise into the top half of the spending charts but only just, and another £1m would see us match the lower estimates of Ipswich Town's budget for the season. So yes, if budget is everything, we would need to raise by £1m to have a reasonable shot at the playoffs, and another £1m to have any thoughts of automatic promotion.

Budget isn't everything, of course, but in the last three seasons only one club with a near-median outlay, Shrewsbury, broke into the playoffs. They spent £3.77m in that season, 2017-18 - so still £700k above us this year, which would pay for five players on our average wage.

While £2m sounds very little in modern football, it represents a 65 per cent increase on our current budget, which is huge. And only then would we be anywhere near the big spenders.
 
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It’s the same as most divisions, there are leagues within leagues in terms of spending. Good thing that it doesn’t always guarantee you success either. If MA can keep us established in this league then hopefully we can try and push for a place in the division above, though it’s obviously a huge step up should we manage it.
 
nlondonimp said:
Actually there has been some new investment over the summer... according to the holding company investments. So no new investment was the wrong thing to say.
Re: ‘fair way short’ maybe as of now, keeping it in simple terms, it is the difference between the £1million of investment that Dorrian talked about needing, and the amount that actually came in over the summer.
Of course the tv money went up too, but then all clubs get that.

Also, the holding company investments have been steady... so the club could well raise the whole amount that Dorrian talked about but it may take the whole season to build up.

Uti.

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/07895367/filing-history
Click to expand...
Forgot to say, that article was from April 2018, and I suspect that our budget increased again last season so that £1m figure might only be £400k now to get us to where BD thought we'd need to be (didn't DC also say we also went a bit more in January to make sure we went up?).

The increased TV monies may have been swallowed up in promotion bonuses.
 
graemetheexile said:
The Salary Cost Management Protocol states 60 per cent of turnover, not including football fortune, equity injections and investment, can be spent on player wages in League One.

Our turnover is £5.2m or thereabouts, so we can spend £3.1m on wages this year. Mr Nates is on record as saying that exact figure (£3.1m) is about average for the division - although I reckon he's talking median rather than mean. So we're not poor, not swimming in resources, but bang on median.

That budget is spread across say 22 players, so average of £140,000 each, or £2,700 a week. The SCMP states youth development players on professional contracts are not included in the cap, so JAS and Chapman do not even count - so that can potentially push the average up further.

I don't think that's a particularly bad average wage for a third tier team. We have a 'required' budget to compete and pay for players who can keep us in the division.

However, and it's a big however, the top tier of clubs in League One (so basically the automatic promotion seekers) spend significantly more. Portsmouth spent around £6m after promotion and probably spend more now, Ipswich are between £5m-£8m this year, and Sunderland probably more (they had a target of £9m last season). The tier below them, looking for the playoffs, again spend far more than the median.

So to push our budget by £1m would see us rise into the top half of the spending charts but only just, and another £1m would see us match the lower estimates of Ipswich Town's budget for the season. So yes, if budget is everything, to be competitive we would need to raise by £1m to have a reasonable shot at the playoffs, and another £1m to have any thoughts of automatic promotion.

Budget isn't everything, of course, but in the last three seasons only one club with a near-median budget, Shrewsbury, has broken into the playoffs. Their budget in that season, 2017-18, was £3.77m - so still £700k above us this season, which would pay for five players on our average wage.

While £2m sounds very little in modern football, it represents a 65 per cent increase on our current budget, which is huge. And only then would we be anywhere near the big spenders.
Click to expand...
Agreed.

Your final paragraph is why I'm a little wary of investment talk because we've had some, which has enabled us to build a good infrastructure of a Club (cup runs and players sales will have helped direct more of that from the budget to infrastructure as well). Too much talks makes it sound very 'take, take, take, IMO (not aiming that at nlondonimp per se).

To kick on further, which, as you allude to, is a 'small' amount in the football bubble, it's still a huge increase in where we're at now and represents a big risk because you've got to sustain that budget as well. That's £2m a year, not just a one-off £2m.

Not sure what Rotherham are placed this season, but their budget was £7m-£8m last season.
 
Luke Imp said:
Forgot to say, that article was from April 2018, and I suspect that our budget increased again last season so that £1m figure might only be £400k now to get us to where BD thought we'd need to be (didn't DC also say we also went a bit more in January to make sure we went up?).

The increased TV monies may have been swallowed up in promotion bonuses.
Click to expand...
I would say all the figures are going up each year, so if anything the projected increases he mentioned in required budget and required investment have also gone up since April 2018
 
Luke Imp said:
Agreed.

Your final paragraph is why I'm a little wary of investment talk because we've had some, which has enabled us to build a good infrastructure of a Club (cup runs and players sales will have helped direct more of that from the budget to infrastructure as well). Too much talks makes it sound very 'take, take, take, IMO (not aiming that at nlondonimp per se).

To kick on further, which, as you allude to, is a 'small' amount in the football bubble, it's still a huge increase in where we're at now and represents a big risk because you've got to sustain that budget as well. That's £2m a year, not just a one-off £2m.

Not sure what Rotherham are placed this season, but their budget was £7m-£8m last season.
Click to expand...

Their last promotion season was an estimated £6.31m - so pushing twice ours this year. I'd guess that SCMP would compel them to reduce from their year in the Championship, so it'll probably be around about £6.5m again.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1139437264101158912
 
graemetheexile said:
The Salary Cost Management Protocol states 60 per cent of turnover, not including football fortune, equity injections and investment, can be spent on player wages in League One.

Our turnover is £5.2m or thereabouts, so we can spend £3.1m on wages this year. Although I'm not entirely sure we spend to the limit, the transfer dealings (releasing Gilks and Wilson to free up wages), suggest we do.

Mr Nates is on record as saying that exact figure (£3.1m) is about average for the division - although I reckon he's talking median rather than mean. So we're not poor, not swimming in resources, but bang on median.

If that budget is spread across say 22 players, there is an average of £140,000 each, or £2,700 a week. Not quite sure if the SCMP includes non-playing staff, but it does state youth development players on professional contracts are not included in the cap, so if JAS and Chapman do not even count I'm not sure why the data analysts would either.

I don't think that's a particularly bad average wage for a third tier team. We have a 'required' budget to compete and pay for players who can keep us in the division.

However, and it's a big however, the top tier of clubs in League One (so basically the automatic promotion seekers) spend significantly more. Portsmouth spent around £6m after promotion and probably spend more now, Ipswich are between £5m-£8m this year, and Sunderland probably more (they had a target of £9m last season). The tier below them, looking for the playoffs, again spend far more than the median.

So to push our budget by £1m would see us rise into the top half of the spending charts but only just, and another £1m would see us match the lower estimates of Ipswich Town's budget for the season. So yes, if budget is everything, to be competitive we would need to raise by £1m to have a reasonable shot at the playoffs, and another £1m to have any thoughts of automatic promotion.

Budget isn't everything, of course, but in the last three seasons only one club with a near-median budget, Shrewsbury, broke into the playoffs. Their budget in that season, 2017-18, was £3.77m - so still £700k above us this season, which would pay for five players on our average wage.

While £2m sounds very little in modern football, it represents a 65 per cent increase on our current budget, which is huge. And only then would we be anywhere near the big spenders.
Click to expand...
Interesting point about chapman and jas. yet another positive in developing our own players, and yet another good reason for appointing Appleton.

I wonder, does that mean chapman will never be included in the cap, as long as he stays with us, or not included in the cap just for the length of his first pro contract?
 
Luke Imp said:
Agreed.

To kick on further, which, as you allude to, is a 'small' amount in the football bubble, it's still a huge increase in where we're at now and represents a big risk because you've got to sustain that budget as well. That's £2m a year, not just a one-off £2m.

Not sure what Rotherham are placed this season, but their budget was £7m-£8m last season.
Click to expand...

Exactly this above. Andy Holt has already explained this to his fans..
https://forums.vitalfootball.co.uk/threads/interesting-tweet-from-accy-stanley-owner-the-trap.84821/
 
nlondonimp said:
Interesting point about chapman and jas. yet another positive in developing our own players, and yet another good reason for appointing Appleton.

I wonder, does that mean chapman will never be included in the cap, as long as he stays with us, or not included in the cap just for the length of his first pro contract?
Click to expand...

If my reading is right, it applies to under-20s on professional contracts.
 
"I wonder, does that mean Chapman will never be included in the cap, as long as he stays with us, or not included in the cap just for the length of his first pro contract?"

Costs for players U21 on 1 July are not included in the cap for that season.

"Budget isn't everything, of course, but in the last three seasons only one club with a near-median outlay, Shrewsbury, broke into the playoffs. They spent £3.77m in that season, 2017-18 - so still £700k above us this year, which would pay for five players on our average wage."

Shrewsbury spent 3.77m in total staff costs. By comparison we spent an annualised 4.1million in the same period and that was as a L2 club.
 
SAToffeeImp said:
"I wonder, does that mean Chapman will never be included in the cap, as long as he stays with us, or not included in the cap just for the length of his first pro contract?"

Costs for players U21 on 1 July are not included in the cap for that season.

"Budget isn't everything, of course, but in the last three seasons only one club with a near-median outlay, Shrewsbury, broke into the playoffs. They spent £3.77m in that season, 2017-18 - so still £700k above us this year, which would pay for five players on our average wage."

Shrewsbury spent 3.77m in total staff costs. By comparison we spent an annualised 4.1million in the same period and that was as a L2 club.
Click to expand...

Thanks Mr Nates, great to hear from you. I knew some of my figures would be off and I'm happy to have them corrected! My turnover figure may also be out of date...
 
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