Pope John XXIII
Vital Football Legend
Preamble (my personal views, not suitable for snowflakes or those easily offended by political views that differ from their own)
Bolton... First of all, I would say that it's nothing personal.
In an ideal world I wouldn't want to see a club like Bolton go down. Phil Gartside's despicable comments years ago about closing the PL aside, they are a club I have no particular problem with. I've been there. It's ok. I wouldn't rush back, but neither would I tick it off the list and then avoid it forever. They are a proper sized championship club and I would rather play them every week than the likes of Barnsley.
But I want us to win and, by consequence relegate them. That's not because I want them out or the division per se, and like I said, it's nothing personal. But I want us to save Burton. That completely contradicts what I have just said in the last paragraph, but I'm not trying to be consistent here.
I would rather save the plucky local club with tiny resources. I really like Burton, they are near to us and if bolton were in the same position I'm sure they too would favour their plucky local club over us. Like I say, nothing personal.
Also, losing to Bolton twice in three days is not especially palatable.
More than anything, I want us to play a fair part in the biggest relegation battle in years. Our mere three-way last season is tame compared to the huge 5 way battle tomorrow.
Tomorrow's relegation battle involves nearly half the division and we are the only one of the ten teams involved who have nothing to play for. I'm happy to lose and Bolton to save themselves as long as we play a strong team and they do it fair and square on the pitch. I don't want to see any bullshit experimental sides handing Bolton a free lifeline and fucking over some other poor sap. We owe it to the integrity of the division to put our best team out and perform. I would want others to do the same for us (Looking at you, Huddersfield).
What I do hope though is that, if we do well and send their fans home upset, that our travelling fans show respect and don't take the piss too much. We know what it feels like. It's awful. They don't need specimens giving it large because, quite frankly, there but by the grace of God go we and we may well experience this again soon enough. As Mick McCarthy said last year, it will either be a celebration or a wake and I hope we are as respectful as Ipswich fans were last season.
So, the permutations:
- Bolton fail to beat us = relegated
- Bolton win and so do Barnsley and Burton = relegated
- Bolton win and Barnsley and Burton BOTH fail to win= Bolton survive
- Bolton win and EITHER Barnsley Or Burton win = Bolton relegated UNLESS Birmingham lose with a 5 goal swing to Bolton.
So Bolton are in big trouble. They need two results to go their way even if they win. Fortunately for them, the others are playing the worst teams possible. Barnsley are at Derby, Burton are at Preston (both going for the playoffs) while Birmingham and Reading (who Bolton can't catch but Barnsley can) are playing Fulham and Cardiff.
Teams
Bolton are a long ball, physical side that are strong in the air and favour the standard 4-2-3-1. Their possession stats are woeful (44%) and their pass completion rate embarrassing (65%), which indicates not only a dire side but one that spends a lot of it's time making the kind of passes that won't always meet their (airborne) target.
Goals aren't really their thing; they have a paltry 36 goals in 45 games, with only Birmingham (35) in the division having scored fewer. Their average of 10 shots per game (compared to our relatively low 12.9) shows them to be a defensive, goal shy side. They manage around 3 shots on target per game
Being defensive is fine if you can defend. But at 72 goals conceded (10 more than us), they have the third worst defence in the division. On their forums, their fans are deeply worried that Parkinson has been defensive minded all season but now they face a game in which they have no choice but to go for it.
Statistically they deserve to be in the bottom three. Bottom three goals, bottom three defence, bottom three goal difference and, at least for now, bottom three points.
They will attack us using their wingers. They like to get crosses into the box and win the headers in the box. Looking at their players compared to ours, a large proportion of our players have 0.[something] aerials won. Every one of their players manages a decent integer for headers won. Yet they only score a header on average every 5 games (still far better than our average of one every 22 games) and they are no better at set pieces (0.2 per game- compare to Cardiffs 0.5 per game and our 0 per game).
So, look after the wings, stop them crossing it... But they may well screw it up even if we fail at that.
What are Bolton's strengths then?
Well, they are noted for their ability to field 11 players, all with two legs. Their players breath regularly and have a functioning circulatory system. Peter Kay is from there.
Weaknesses is a bit easier.
They cannot handle counter attacks, they cannot handle skilful players, they hate dealing with through balls and they are terrible at keeping possession. They are poor at finishing and nothing special at defending set pieces.
They score first only about as often as we do and have a tendency to both score and concede late goals.
Everything here points to a forest win. Our form is better, the team is better and this squad play far better with no pressure.
But everything I have just said goes out of the window in a game like this. It comes down to how much bottle they have and how much do they want to be championship players?
They could easily sweep a sleeping forest side away 3-0 to the roars of a rejuvenated crowd. Or they could do almost everything right but hand us a couple of nervey goals on a plate.
Predictions are irrelevant. Can Bolton beat us? Definately. Will they? That depends on them more than us I would say.
Players
First thing that strikes you about Bolton is that their squad seems bloody ancient.
For goals it's a bit pitiful as well to be honest. A few months ago they had Gary Madine, a player I don't especially rate but who won a monstrous 8.8 headers per game.
Without him, they are down to the 31 year old Adam Le Fondre, with a meagre six goals. He isn't exactly the kind of battering ram you want as the lone striker and consequently he hasn't scored many nor assisted any, and his performance ratings are near the bottom of their squad's.
Look down their squad list for another striker and you'll start to realise why they wanted Tyler Walker. They pretty much have no one. Sammy Ameobi can play there and has 4 goals, but is extremely inconsistent at this level and is regarded by their fans as having had a bad season. Obvioudly they have Clough and Walker who haven't been getting into a squad that has no strikers. And they can't play anyway. So yeah, Bolton sold their only half decent striker without a proper replacement.
So behind Le Fondre will be Ameobi, who is their danger man with 4 goals and 2 assists (you wonder why they are going down??), Long term forest stalwart Darren Pratley (now 33, 2 goals and 3 assists) and probably Craig Noone (30, 1 goal). Their fans are hoping to see Carlos Vela, who apparently is rubbish but "at least doesn't hide".
There is also Will Buckley with 2 goals and if they are going "offensive" then Pratley will move to defensive midfield for him, but.... Yeah.
In defensive midfield they are likely to go with either Pratley and Karl Henry (age 35) or a bloke called Derik.
Defenders... No point. There is some talk with them that a promising young defender from their U23 squad didn't play on Friday but they are pretty scathing of the defence in general.
There is nothing individually for us to worry about here. But it's just that motivation factor again- Bolton absolutely could beat us given the occasion but in normal service we should have the talent to win this.
Form
Bolton are absolute rock bottom of both the 6 and 10 game form tables. Their last win was mid-march at home to Villa and they have lost 6 out of 7 since then. They have had 2 wins in 16 and lost 9 of those.
It doesn't get better against us. They last beat us 17 years ago (March 2001) and haven't won in 9 since then. Karanka himself has beaten them in 5 out of 6 meetings he has had with Bolton.
However, the last Forest team to beat Bolton away was Brian Clough's European cup winning team in November 1978. We have never won at the MacBok/Reecron stadium. Although we bloody should have two years ago but for conceding a stupid late equaliser.
Official Vatican Prediction
BBC give a whopping 55% chance of a home win and just 20% chance for us. I have no idea what on Earth that algorithm is based on given every possible performance indicator.
Infogol are screaming at their users to load money on a forest win as it is at an excellent price and the stats all point to it.
The Holy Spirit has whispered to the Apostolic See that Bolton will win this one but be relegated anyway.
Weather
A sunny 21°c will make it a lovely day for an execution, although not quite £35 lovely. A 6mph southerly wind will blow against a high 1023 mb of pressure.
Inspirational Picture
Astonishingly simple one to end the season.
Take a look at this lovely league table. Look at the title of it. Note that WE ARENT IN IT.
Now bask in the knowledge that whatever happens tomorrow doesn't matter one jot to us, not one forest pip will be whacked and we can all spend the summer serene yet febrile while backing up our PMs
Bolton... First of all, I would say that it's nothing personal.
In an ideal world I wouldn't want to see a club like Bolton go down. Phil Gartside's despicable comments years ago about closing the PL aside, they are a club I have no particular problem with. I've been there. It's ok. I wouldn't rush back, but neither would I tick it off the list and then avoid it forever. They are a proper sized championship club and I would rather play them every week than the likes of Barnsley.
But I want us to win and, by consequence relegate them. That's not because I want them out or the division per se, and like I said, it's nothing personal. But I want us to save Burton. That completely contradicts what I have just said in the last paragraph, but I'm not trying to be consistent here.
I would rather save the plucky local club with tiny resources. I really like Burton, they are near to us and if bolton were in the same position I'm sure they too would favour their plucky local club over us. Like I say, nothing personal.
Also, losing to Bolton twice in three days is not especially palatable.
More than anything, I want us to play a fair part in the biggest relegation battle in years. Our mere three-way last season is tame compared to the huge 5 way battle tomorrow.
Tomorrow's relegation battle involves nearly half the division and we are the only one of the ten teams involved who have nothing to play for. I'm happy to lose and Bolton to save themselves as long as we play a strong team and they do it fair and square on the pitch. I don't want to see any bullshit experimental sides handing Bolton a free lifeline and fucking over some other poor sap. We owe it to the integrity of the division to put our best team out and perform. I would want others to do the same for us (Looking at you, Huddersfield).
What I do hope though is that, if we do well and send their fans home upset, that our travelling fans show respect and don't take the piss too much. We know what it feels like. It's awful. They don't need specimens giving it large because, quite frankly, there but by the grace of God go we and we may well experience this again soon enough. As Mick McCarthy said last year, it will either be a celebration or a wake and I hope we are as respectful as Ipswich fans were last season.
So, the permutations:
- Bolton fail to beat us = relegated
- Bolton win and so do Barnsley and Burton = relegated
- Bolton win and Barnsley and Burton BOTH fail to win= Bolton survive
- Bolton win and EITHER Barnsley Or Burton win = Bolton relegated UNLESS Birmingham lose with a 5 goal swing to Bolton.
So Bolton are in big trouble. They need two results to go their way even if they win. Fortunately for them, the others are playing the worst teams possible. Barnsley are at Derby, Burton are at Preston (both going for the playoffs) while Birmingham and Reading (who Bolton can't catch but Barnsley can) are playing Fulham and Cardiff.
Teams
Bolton are a long ball, physical side that are strong in the air and favour the standard 4-2-3-1. Their possession stats are woeful (44%) and their pass completion rate embarrassing (65%), which indicates not only a dire side but one that spends a lot of it's time making the kind of passes that won't always meet their (airborne) target.
Goals aren't really their thing; they have a paltry 36 goals in 45 games, with only Birmingham (35) in the division having scored fewer. Their average of 10 shots per game (compared to our relatively low 12.9) shows them to be a defensive, goal shy side. They manage around 3 shots on target per game
Being defensive is fine if you can defend. But at 72 goals conceded (10 more than us), they have the third worst defence in the division. On their forums, their fans are deeply worried that Parkinson has been defensive minded all season but now they face a game in which they have no choice but to go for it.
Statistically they deserve to be in the bottom three. Bottom three goals, bottom three defence, bottom three goal difference and, at least for now, bottom three points.
They will attack us using their wingers. They like to get crosses into the box and win the headers in the box. Looking at their players compared to ours, a large proportion of our players have 0.[something] aerials won. Every one of their players manages a decent integer for headers won. Yet they only score a header on average every 5 games (still far better than our average of one every 22 games) and they are no better at set pieces (0.2 per game- compare to Cardiffs 0.5 per game and our 0 per game).
So, look after the wings, stop them crossing it... But they may well screw it up even if we fail at that.
What are Bolton's strengths then?
Well, they are noted for their ability to field 11 players, all with two legs. Their players breath regularly and have a functioning circulatory system. Peter Kay is from there.
Weaknesses is a bit easier.
They cannot handle counter attacks, they cannot handle skilful players, they hate dealing with through balls and they are terrible at keeping possession. They are poor at finishing and nothing special at defending set pieces.
They score first only about as often as we do and have a tendency to both score and concede late goals.
Everything here points to a forest win. Our form is better, the team is better and this squad play far better with no pressure.
But everything I have just said goes out of the window in a game like this. It comes down to how much bottle they have and how much do they want to be championship players?
They could easily sweep a sleeping forest side away 3-0 to the roars of a rejuvenated crowd. Or they could do almost everything right but hand us a couple of nervey goals on a plate.
Predictions are irrelevant. Can Bolton beat us? Definately. Will they? That depends on them more than us I would say.
Players
First thing that strikes you about Bolton is that their squad seems bloody ancient.
For goals it's a bit pitiful as well to be honest. A few months ago they had Gary Madine, a player I don't especially rate but who won a monstrous 8.8 headers per game.
Without him, they are down to the 31 year old Adam Le Fondre, with a meagre six goals. He isn't exactly the kind of battering ram you want as the lone striker and consequently he hasn't scored many nor assisted any, and his performance ratings are near the bottom of their squad's.
Look down their squad list for another striker and you'll start to realise why they wanted Tyler Walker. They pretty much have no one. Sammy Ameobi can play there and has 4 goals, but is extremely inconsistent at this level and is regarded by their fans as having had a bad season. Obvioudly they have Clough and Walker who haven't been getting into a squad that has no strikers. And they can't play anyway. So yeah, Bolton sold their only half decent striker without a proper replacement.
So behind Le Fondre will be Ameobi, who is their danger man with 4 goals and 2 assists (you wonder why they are going down??), Long term forest stalwart Darren Pratley (now 33, 2 goals and 3 assists) and probably Craig Noone (30, 1 goal). Their fans are hoping to see Carlos Vela, who apparently is rubbish but "at least doesn't hide".
There is also Will Buckley with 2 goals and if they are going "offensive" then Pratley will move to defensive midfield for him, but.... Yeah.
In defensive midfield they are likely to go with either Pratley and Karl Henry (age 35) or a bloke called Derik.
Defenders... No point. There is some talk with them that a promising young defender from their U23 squad didn't play on Friday but they are pretty scathing of the defence in general.
There is nothing individually for us to worry about here. But it's just that motivation factor again- Bolton absolutely could beat us given the occasion but in normal service we should have the talent to win this.
Form
Bolton are absolute rock bottom of both the 6 and 10 game form tables. Their last win was mid-march at home to Villa and they have lost 6 out of 7 since then. They have had 2 wins in 16 and lost 9 of those.
It doesn't get better against us. They last beat us 17 years ago (March 2001) and haven't won in 9 since then. Karanka himself has beaten them in 5 out of 6 meetings he has had with Bolton.
However, the last Forest team to beat Bolton away was Brian Clough's European cup winning team in November 1978. We have never won at the MacBok/Reecron stadium. Although we bloody should have two years ago but for conceding a stupid late equaliser.
Official Vatican Prediction
BBC give a whopping 55% chance of a home win and just 20% chance for us. I have no idea what on Earth that algorithm is based on given every possible performance indicator.
Infogol are screaming at their users to load money on a forest win as it is at an excellent price and the stats all point to it.
The Holy Spirit has whispered to the Apostolic See that Bolton will win this one but be relegated anyway.
Weather
A sunny 21°c will make it a lovely day for an execution, although not quite £35 lovely. A 6mph southerly wind will blow against a high 1023 mb of pressure.
Inspirational Picture
Astonishingly simple one to end the season.
Take a look at this lovely league table. Look at the title of it. Note that WE ARENT IN IT.
Now bask in the knowledge that whatever happens tomorrow doesn't matter one jot to us, not one forest pip will be whacked and we can all spend the summer serene yet febrile while backing up our PMs
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