Good Morning Thread

[TQ2Spurs]

Sorry Steve but if you have to ask that question, we have no chance!

Better get used to the idea PY, people are so pissed off with the tories it's pretty much 99% chance we will have Starmers lot making the mess in the next parliament.

 

[steveperryman]

Better get used to the idea PY, people are so pissed off with the tories it's pretty much 99% chance we will have Starmers lot making the mess in the next parliament.

Oh they're all pigs. They'll lie, they'll cheat & a great many will fall but people want change & unfortunately they're the only other viable candidates at the moment. The alternative isn't even worth contemplating.

 

[Spursex]

Better get used to the idea PY, people are so pissed off with the tories it's pretty much 99% chance we will have Starmers lot making the mess in the next parliament.

Oh they're all pigs. They'll lie, they'll cheat & a great many will fall but people want change & unfortunately they're the only other viable candidates at the moment. The alternative isn't even worth contemplating.

What alternative would be so unpalatable?

Labour will once again virtually bankrupt the state, outside investment in the UK will disappear faster than a whores knickers in a brothel.

Sadly people will forget what they're really like and just like in London, the rest of the UK will be become a left loving Islamic 3rd World state. Already in Scotland and London, and among left wing councils in the UK they're planning for hundreds of thousands of migrants from predominantly Islamic states.

The indigenous people here now are despised by them, and once they vote them in, it will be too late to ever reverse it, we've reached the tipping point.

If you are able, pack your bags and get out, this country will never ever be the same again once labour are in.

 

[TQ2Spurs]

Oh they're all pigs. They'll lie, they'll cheat & a great many will fall but people want change & unfortunately they're the only other viable candidates at the moment. The alternative isn't even worth contemplating.

It's ironic isn't it, the only Prime Minister we've had in recent times with the balls to take the tough decisions and get things done was a woman.

 

[Spursex]

Whistling Dixie or a feint light of hope?

Can the Tories win the next general election?​

Polling shows that while Keir Starmer’s Labour has a strong lead, many are yet to make up their minds, giving the Conservatives a sliver of hope​

Oliver Wright
, Policy Editor

Wednesday March 27 2024, 12.00pm, The Times

When Isaac Levido, the Conservatives’ election supremo charged with delivering the party an unlikely victory, was invited to address the cabinet at the start of this year he was blunt about the party’s electoral prospects.
The path to winning the next election, he warned them, was steep and narrow and would involve convincing voters who are at present telling pollsters that they will not support the Tories to change their minds.
But Levido insisted such a feat was possible, pointing out that if only half of the Tory voters who have moved away from the party since 2019 returned they would be back in contention.
So what are the party’s chances and what does a potential path to victory look like?

What do the polls show ahead of the general election?​

On any metric the polling is dire for the Conservatives. YouGov surveys for The Times consistently show Labour with a 20-plus point lead — and it has grown over the period that Rishi Sunak has been in No 10.

In November 2022 — shortly after Sunak entered Downing Street — the Tories were polling at 26 per cent. That figure has now fallen to 20 points, which is the same level of support that Liz Truss had at the nadir of her short premiership.
Not only that but about half of all voters say that there are no circumstances in which they would consider voting Conservative at the next election.

• When is the next UK general election? The most likely dates
Yet the YouGov polling also shows that behind the headline voting figures, many people have yet to definitively make up their minds on who to support in a general election.
Of Tory voters in 2019, more than one in five say that they do not know who they are going to back, while just 12 per cent say they intend to support Labour.

Polling and focus group experts say that they are picking up high levels of disillusionment with both the main political parties and that while voters are fed up with the Tories they are far from convinced Labour would be any better.
They also point out that when gauging voting intention the question asked is “How would you vote if there was an election tomorrow” — not one in several months’ time.

What is the biggest challenge for the Tories in winning back 2019 voters?​

The coalition of voters who handed Boris Johnson a landslide victory in 2019 was unusual. He won seats traditionally seen as Labour not only because Jeremy Corbyn was unpopular but because of the success of his pledge to “get Brexit done”. Many traditional Labour supporters who wanted to leave the EU backed the Tories for the first time.
This time around, Sunak needs to convince these voters not to return to the Labour fold — or vote for Reform, the anti-immigration party connected to Nigel Farage.
Again, polling shows how critical this group is. Of Tory 2019 voters — which includes their heartland rural voters as well as the so-called red wall — 35 per cent say they will definitely stick with the party while 18 per cent plan to vote for Reform.


• Rishi Sunak prepares for last stand to save Tories — and himself
Levido hopes that as the general election gets nearer the polls will narrow and the Tories will be able to squeeze the Reform vote by warning that it would lead to a Labour victory.
But that assumes that these voters care enough about stopping Starmer entering Downing Street to fall in behind Sunak.

Which issues could help Sunak win the next election?​

Surveys show that Sunak has identified the right problems to tackle if he is going to stand any chance of retaining power — namely his pledges to cut NHS waiting times, stop the boats and grow the economy.
Nearly 40 per cent of undecided voters say they would be more likely to vote Tory if Sunak succeeded in cutting waiting lists, 31 per cent say they would consider backing the party if it stopped the influx of migrants and 26 per cent cite the economy as a potential reason to shift allegiance.

This is why the prime minister has attached so much importance to getting flights to Rwanda off the ground. Strategists believe that if he can fulfil the pledge — and it starts having a deterrent effect — then Labour, which has promised to scrap the policy, could find itself in difficulties.
Downing Street is also hoping that its policies to bring down NHS waiting times will start to show results by polling day, while a series of planned tax cuts and falling interest rates should help voters feel better off.
But with the economy predicted to hardly grow at all this year and amid ongoing strikes by doctors, both these aspirations may fall short of having the desired effect.

What other problems does Sunak face?​

In some ways the electoral hurdle for the Tories is worse even than the raw numbers suggest, because Labour is doing particularly well at winning votes in the marginal constituencies it will need to form a government.
A recent constituency-modelling poll by YouGov found that even if Labour went into the election with only a 13.5 per cent lead, the party would still win a Tony Blair-style landslide because it is stacking up votes in the areas of the country that matter the most.


The other difficulty Sunak has in remaining in Downing Street is that even if the Tories are the largest party in a hung parliament, neither the Lib Dems or the SNP would be prepared to keep them in power. They would not even necessarily be able to rely on the DUP, who propped up Theresa May after the 2017 general election.
So to stay in power Sunak needs to win an overall majority, something even many Tory MPs think is an impossible task at the moment.

But could the polls be wrong?​

This is the elephant in the room. In 2017, at the point at which the election was called, Theresa May had a 20-point poll lead — roughly that which Starmer enjoys today.
However, in the election itself the Tory lead was just 2.4 percentage points, losing the party its majority and forcing them to rely on DUP votes to form a government. Some Tories are suggesting that Labour’s lead could be overturned in a similar way.
Conversely, in the 2015 election, polling regularly forecast a hung parliament. Very few of the polls published during that six-week campaign projected the outright majority that was finally secured by David Cameron.
Even in 2019, few pollsters projected the scale of the Conservative Party’s 80-seat victory. Two days before polling day, YouGov, one of the few pollsters to have got it right in 2017, projected that the Conservatives would win a majority of just 28.
Yet unless the polls tighten significantly between now and the election, even errors on this scale would not affect this year’s result.
If the polls are that wrong, it would be an upset of unprecedented proportions.

 

[steveperryman]

It's ironic isn't it, the only Prime Minister we've had in recent times with the balls to take the tough decisions and get things done was a woman.

Everyone's being sold a lie. You simply can't believe a word any of them say any more. Whatever promises they actually make will be misleading, cos they'll not be capable of delivering anything tangible if they do eventually get into power.

 

[TQ2Spurs]

I was flabberghasted when I heard the Immigration Services report on the guy who made the corrosive substance attack in London. It sounds like his asylum application was refused multiple times before he was convicted of a sexual offence, he still wasn't removed from the country. He then supposedly converted to the Christian faith and made another asylum application (the 5th I think) and on production of a certificate from some baptist church, with a photo of him being baptised, the judge at the tribunal granted his application in spite of the sex offence. Pictures of his funeral after he drowned himself showed he was buried with a muslim ceremony.

Yet another example of the stupid pricks in charge of our country.

 

[steveperryman]

Whistling Dixie or a feint light of hope?

Can the Tories win the next general election?​

Polling shows that while Keir Starmer’s Labour has a strong lead, many are yet to make up their minds, giving the Conservatives a sliver of hope​

Oliver Wright
, Policy Editor

Wednesday March 27 2024, 12.00pm, The Times

When Isaac Levido, the Conservatives’ election supremo charged with delivering the party an unlikely victory, was invited to address the cabinet at the start of this year he was blunt about the party’s electoral prospects.
The path to winning the next election, he warned them, was steep and narrow and would involve convincing voters who are at present telling pollsters that they will not support the Tories to change their minds.
But Levido insisted such a feat was possible, pointing out that if only half of the Tory voters who have moved away from the party since 2019 returned they would be back in contention.
So what are the party’s chances and what does a potential path to victory look like?

What do the polls show ahead of the general election?​

On any metric the polling is dire for the Conservatives. YouGov surveys for The Times consistently show Labour with a 20-plus point lead — and it has grown over the period that Rishi Sunak has been in No 10.

In November 2022 — shortly after Sunak entered Downing Street — the Tories were polling at 26 per cent. That figure has now fallen to 20 points, which is the same level of support that Liz Truss had at the nadir of her short premiership.
Not only that but about half of all voters say that there are no circumstances in which they would consider voting Conservative at the next election.

• When is the next UK general election? The most likely dates
Yet the YouGov polling also shows that behind the headline voting figures, many people have yet to definitively make up their minds on who to support in a general election.
Of Tory voters in 2019, more than one in five say that they do not know who they are going to back, while just 12 per cent say they intend to support Labour.

Polling and focus group experts say that they are picking up high levels of disillusionment with both the main political parties and that while voters are fed up with the Tories they are far from convinced Labour would be any better.
They also point out that when gauging voting intention the question asked is “How would you vote if there was an election tomorrow” — not one in several months’ time.

What is the biggest challenge for the Tories in winning back 2019 voters?​

The coalition of voters who handed Boris Johnson a landslide victory in 2019 was unusual. He won seats traditionally seen as Labour not only because Jeremy Corbyn was unpopular but because of the success of his pledge to “get Brexit done”. Many traditional Labour supporters who wanted to leave the EU backed the Tories for the first time.
This time around, Sunak needs to convince these voters not to return to the Labour fold — or vote for Reform, the anti-immigration party connected to Nigel Farage.
Again, polling shows how critical this group is. Of Tory 2019 voters — which includes their heartland rural voters as well as the so-called red wall — 35 per cent say they will definitely stick with the party while 18 per cent plan to vote for Reform.


• Rishi Sunak prepares for last stand to save Tories — and himself
Levido hopes that as the general election gets nearer the polls will narrow and the Tories will be able to squeeze the Reform vote by warning that it would lead to a Labour victory.
But that assumes that these voters care enough about stopping Starmer entering Downing Street to fall in behind Sunak.

Which issues could help Sunak win the next election?​

Surveys show that Sunak has identified the right problems to tackle if he is going to stand any chance of retaining power — namely his pledges to cut NHS waiting times, stop the boats and grow the economy.
Nearly 40 per cent of undecided voters say they would be more likely to vote Tory if Sunak succeeded in cutting waiting lists, 31 per cent say they would consider backing the party if it stopped the influx of migrants and 26 per cent cite the economy as a potential reason to shift allegiance.

This is why the prime minister has attached so much importance to getting flights to Rwanda off the ground. Strategists believe that if he can fulfil the pledge — and it starts having a deterrent effect — then Labour, which has promised to scrap the policy, could find itself in difficulties.
Downing Street is also hoping that its policies to bring down NHS waiting times will start to show results by polling day, while a series of planned tax cuts and falling interest rates should help voters feel better off.
But with the economy predicted to hardly grow at all this year and amid ongoing strikes by doctors, both these aspirations may fall short of having the desired effect.

What other problems does Sunak face?​

In some ways the electoral hurdle for the Tories is worse even than the raw numbers suggest, because Labour is doing particularly well at winning votes in the marginal constituencies it will need to form a government.
A recent constituency-modelling poll by YouGov found that even if Labour went into the election with only a 13.5 per cent lead, the party would still win a Tony Blair-style landslide because it is stacking up votes in the areas of the country that matter the most.


The other difficulty Sunak has in remaining in Downing Street is that even if the Tories are the largest party in a hung parliament, neither the Lib Dems or the SNP would be prepared to keep them in power. They would not even necessarily be able to rely on the DUP, who propped up Theresa May after the 2017 general election.
So to stay in power Sunak needs to win an overall majority, something even many Tory MPs think is an impossible task at the moment.

But could the polls be wrong?​

This is the elephant in the room. In 2017, at the point at which the election was called, Theresa May had a 20-point poll lead — roughly that which Starmer enjoys today.
However, in the election itself the Tory lead was just 2.4 percentage points, losing the party its majority and forcing them to rely on DUP votes to form a government. Some Tories are suggesting that Labour’s lead could be overturned in a similar way.
Conversely, in the 2015 election, polling regularly forecast a hung parliament. Very few of the polls published during that six-week campaign projected the outright majority that was finally secured by David Cameron.
Even in 2019, few pollsters projected the scale of the Conservative Party’s 80-seat victory. Two days before polling day, YouGov, one of the few pollsters to have got it right in 2017, projected that the Conservatives would win a majority of just 28.
Yet unless the polls tighten significantly between now and the election, even errors on this scale would not affect this year’s result.
If the polls are that wrong, it would be an upset of unprecedented proportions.

They've already failed. The contempt they have shown to the electorate is abominable.

 

[TQ2Spurs]

Stopping the boats is going well isn't it, Sunak isn't doing himself any favours by constantly claiming that the numbers are down by a third, that's absolute bollocks and everyone knows it. Figures released today show that record numbers have crossed the channel in the first three months of this year. I really don't know why we are giving the French so much money when they are so ineffective.

 

[Niall D]

Don't care I still argue that this generation has become too soft in one way too mouthy in another and certainly too selfish.
They talk about jobs 'Brits won't do' working on farms picking fruit.
That's, what you done over the, summer when you were 14/15, for us it was potato picking or budding roses, in Armagh it was, apple picking, what's, wrong can't 14/16 Yr old not do a bit of work over the Summer, prob not (didumms)
Young girls (excuse the masoginistic) used to work in cafes or resturants of an evening, jot any more, where ever I look it's staff required.
I know someone 60 odd, Divorced, now they have a kidney or bowel issue, awaiting an operation.
She has a walking stick, she doesn't need but has when walking, in case anybody sees.
Anyways in an apartment, 2 bed, rent paid, new car under DLA.
Best of phones (Sony) 65 " TV (the best) Sky /Netflix.
As she was a mom of 3 she gets full pension when due, but in reality worked for 10 years.
But Pipps type payments coming in every month + some kind off government payment of £300 extra, every few months over the last few years. One of those payments helped to tile her bathroom.
There is something wrong when those who don't work or haven't ever worked get so much

 

[steveperryman]

The Tories have had 14 years to sort things out & have made a right pigs ear of it.

The immigration problem isn't going away anytime soon. In all likelihood it's only going to get worse.

A Sky engineer who called out to install Sky Q a week or two ago, told me of the problems they've faced with their recruitment policy. He explained that they had all but given up because nobody wanted to do the work. One of the trainee engineers was asked to fit a dish & line but flatly refused to do so. When asked what was wrong they boldly said "No, it's wet".

As a country we've allowed the rot to set in. Kids are no longer interested in getting their hands dirty, they're too soft for that. They're all going for the easy options nowadays in both schooling & their careers.

I was chatting to a close friend a good while back. He has a PhD & works as a researcher at Queen's University. He explained we now have the highest recorded suicide rates of any generation. I'm not surprised. They've been coddled by far too many & for far too long & now we're all reaping the rewards /s.

 

[Walthamstow wanderer]

…..What is your current sexuality ? Is now a genuine question !!!!!

 

[TQ2Spurs]

Don't care I still argue that this generation has become too soft in one way too mouthy in another and certainly too selfish.
They talk about jobs 'Brits won't do' working on farms picking fruit.
That's, what you done over the, summer when you were 14/15, for us it was potato picking or budding roses, in Armagh it was, apple picking, what's, wrong can't 14/16 Yr old not do a bit of work over the Summer, prob not (didumms)
Young girls (excuse the masoginistic) used to work in cafes or resturants of an evening, jot any more, where ever I look it's staff required.
I know someone 60 odd, Divorced, now they have a kidney or bowel issue, awaiting an operation.
She has a walking stick, she doesn't need but has when walking, in case anybody sees.
Anyways in an apartment, 2 bed, rent paid, new car under DLA.
Best of phones (Sony) 65 " TV (the best) Sky /Netflix.
As she was a mom of 3 she gets full pension when due, but in reality worked for 10 years.
But Pipps type payments coming in every month + some kind off government payment of £300 extra, every few months over the last few years. One of those payments helped to tile her bathroom.
There is something wrong when those who don't work or haven't ever worked get so much

Similar story here Niall, my single parent neighbour has two kids of 10 and 12, the younger one (a boy) is said to be autistic but you would never guess, he attends a normal school, is fine physically and mentally. If there is anything wrong with him it's probably a lack of a decent male role model in his life. The kids go to their dads at the weekend and I've seen and heard him when he drops them back on Sundays, he's about as gormless as they come and probably has other kids scattered around the area.

The mum doesn't work, even during school hours, so probably has her £1200/month rent paid for her as well as benefits for day to day living. She probably also claims attendance allowance for her son as well as mobility allowance and has applied for and been given a blue badge. I know we are encouraged to be aware of hidden disabilities but trust me, this one is working the system and it makes me mad!

 

[TQ2Spurs]

Similar story here Niall, my single parent neighbour has two kids of 10 and 12, the younger one (a boy) is said to be autistic but you would never guess, he attends a normal school, is fine physically and mentally. If there is anything wrong with him it's probably a lack of a decent male role model in his life. The kids go to their dads at the weekend and I've seen and heard him when he drops them back on Sundays, he's about as gormless as they come and probably has other kids scattered around the area.

The mum doesn't work, even during school hours, so probably has her £1200/month rent paid for her as well as benefits for day to day living. She probably also claims attendance allowance for her son as well as mobility allowance and has applied for and been given a blue badge. I know we are encouraged to be aware of hidden disabilities but trust me, this one is working the system and it makes me mad!

I now have another new neighbour on the other side of my next door one, she is also a single mother with a 12 year old boy who doesn't appear to go out to work so is probably another one living off the taxpayers.

 

[steveperryman]

I now have another new neighbour on the other side of my next door one, she is also a single mother with a 12 year old boy who doesn't appear to go out to work so is probably another one living off the taxpayers.

Best get used to it because for the first time there are more women that are single mothers than there are married.

It won't last long however as apparently there are more women who are single & childless by the time they turn 30. 63% of young men from the age of 21-30 have no interest in starting a family it would seem & for a myriad of reasons.

 

[TQ2Spurs]

Best get used to it because for the first time there are more women that are single mothers than there are married.

It won't last long however as apparently there are more women who are single & childless by the time they turn 30. 63% of young men from the age of 21-30 have no interest in starting a family it would seem & for a myriad of reasons.

I think it was inevitable that there would be an increase in the number of women turning 30 and childless, quite simply down to the changes in equal opportunities and the lack of affordable childcare. I think as a result of this women are leaving in later to start a family with many first time mothers now in their mid to late thirties.

 

[Niall D]

Best get used to it because for the first time there are more women that are single mothers than there are married.

It won't last long however as apparently there are more women who are single & childless by the time they turn 30. 63% of young men from the age of 21-30 have no interest in starting a family it would seem & for a myriad of reasons.

Hi SP
Probably because they're so self focused and self absorbed, virtually all of them living in their own private 'Blockbuster Movie' it's like what I do in the band, every other 'Dic#' thinks they can sing and play guitar, no matter how basic their skills.
They don't want to 'do up houses save or work for the future, you can't tell em what to do in work as they know it all, because they have a degree don't ya know...
I'm stopping.. before I get the box out...

 

[steveperryman]

…..What is your current sexuality ? Is now a genuine question !!!!!

Blame feminism & their push for change that has brought this about.

Think about it. A young boy, let's call him Timmy. He associated himself as a girl. His family & schooling facilitated this & he grew up to become known as Tabatha. All went well until such time Tabatha became disenchanted because HE didn't fit in. Is it any bloody wonder? It's biologically impossible for a man to become a woman. There are only 2 genders!

We've created this f*****g problem & now we have a generation of youngsters who are more disillusioned than ever.

 

[steveperryman]

I think it was inevitable that there would be an increase in the number of women turning 30 and childless, quite simply down to the changes in equal opportunities and the lack of affordable childcare. I think as a result of this women are leaving in later to start a family with many first time mothers now in their mid to late thirties.

Leaving it too late in some circumstances.

 

[steveperryman]

Hi SP
Probably because they're so self focused and self absorbed, virtually all of them living in their own private 'Blockbuster Movie' it's like what I do in the band, every other 'Dic#' thinks they can sing and play guitar, no matter how basic their skills.
They don't want to 'do up houses save or work for the future, you can't tell em what to do in work as they know it all, because they have a degree don't ya know...
I'm stopping.. before I get the box out...

There's the financial burden & a multitude of other risks involved. The main one being women are too hard to please. Since when has that been any different?