Europe In Out Shake it all about

[mike_field]

Good posts above!

And whilst Brexit continues to take the airwaves and the millions we're spending to stand still, the Gov have passed a 2.8% Police precept increase on Council Tax which I believe works out at about an extra £50 for a Band B property.

 

[northamptonvillan]

Weak Government and poor leadership in the political, business and industrial sectors have cost the country greatly in the post WW2 years and continue to do so. Difficult to see a positive outcome in the near future.

Tragic for the ordinary, working man and woman.

 

[kefkat]

Ironside I agree with what you say to an extent. However I will add that there is alot of people who do not understand the debate or what they are /were voting for. NOT all but there are alot with lower I.Q's who really don't understand what the problem and complexities are.

They do not get why we can't just walk away. They don't care or/and don't want to know about the N.I problem for example. The only time they will care is if a no deal Brexit goes through and their money and a n other is affected. Then it will be too late.

 

[mike_field]

Have no problems saying I think I've got a reasonable grip on the Brexit debate, and have done since day 1 in terms of the pitfalls economically and the little England approach, reasons behind it etc etc etc.

I also have no problems in saying what I did know would fit on a postage stamp given what's come out since.

Until NI became an issue for example, I for one, hadn't even given that side of things a passing thought, let alone understood the potential ramifications.

I consider myself reasonably informed (look on this forum and everything we all discuss, banter and shoot the breeze about) and I knew shit in reality other than it would be a shitstorm where little would change in reality in terms of the 'relationship power'.

How do you ever boil that down to 'remain' or 'leave' and assume you know exactly why/what a vote for 'remain' or 'leave' actually stood for?

 

[danvilla2]

Found this chap called Adam Posen, who is an American economist who has worked for the BoE, giving his views on brexit and the impact on the economy. I always think it’s worth getting an outsiders view on things, especially someone who should be impartial to some degree being a yank (although not sure where he lives or his exposure to the UK stock market etc).

Worth a watch, my favourite part is around the 9 mins and 45 second mark where he discusses briefly whether the Tories or Labour are at fault for the vote. I’ve posted a few times about the inadequacy of labour throughout the whole process.

My only small gripe with economists or commentators on Brexit is they do not reference the opposite upside or downside (depending on their view). There will be winners and losers.

The only parts I would question are 1) the upside to the city and new trade for London. He quotes a loss of 30% of the workforce moving to Frankfurt or Dublin, which would be catastrophic as the GDP the city generates for the WHOLE COUNTRY is disproportionate to the the number of jobs, the upside I feel is the city will be forced into new markets and London is a safe and cheap place to trade, invest and launder money - lets be honest.

Secondly, the Germans view that they are prepared to say bye-bye. I still believe the Germans will highly desire a deal, our car industry alone is worth billions to them and the market is already on steroids as so many cars are financed. That bubble will burst soon before we even get onto higher interest rates to curb inflation from the weakening pound due to the uncertainty. The Germans will need to be a bit selfish on this one, and it’s just not the Germans actually. I do think the UK has slightly more bargaining power than he’s giving us credit for.

 

[danvilla2]

Interesting to hear the views of a German M.E.P. on Brexit.
His view was that Europe are as much to blame for the current impasse as our politicians. He said that Britain joined a football team but Europe has evolved into a hockey team. This evolution has taken place without consultation with the people of Europe, a large number of whom are very dissatisfied with the direction the E.U is going.
He says that the European project needs the sort of reform that can not only claim the support of the peoples of Europe but also gain the support of the British electorate in a new referendum. Interestingly he said that Britain leaving the E.U is the equivalent of 19 of the smaller European nations going.
Another German put the opposite view in a very determined way that we made our choice, the E.U has done as much as it can to help us and we'd best think again . There won't be another deal.
Interesting to hear views other than the big cheeses.

I do think the EU needs to understand why the Brits voted to leave, and look to change perceptions. I would prefer an EU beyond it’s principles, which may never happen or certainly not for a long time (different levels of membership for me) so that is out of the question but the same anti EU sentiment is out there in abundance in Holland, Italy and Austria. I doubt the EU will or would do this given the toxic nature of the issue but if they don’t, it’s a sure sign of arrogance until the next problem in the bloc. The Brits (me included) do not understand how it works, we have a low turnout when it comes to voting for our MEP’s yet the media still fuel us with “unelected EU bureaucrats”.

I can’t be bothered to do it at this time of the evening, but it would be interesting to see a list of all the laws and regulation that have come into play in the UK over the years and the benefits of alignment across the EU. It’s impossible to know, but would the UK government really have been able to think and land all the good legislation we have from the EU? One of the best quotes I heard just after the referendum from colleague was “Brussels cares about the British people than Westminster does” and it’s hard to debate. We’ve had years of austerity from one government after the one before gave everything away as a benefit and sold off half the gold reserves to pay for it.

I think everyone needs to learn from this, every organisation that plods along thinking it is doing the right thing ends up in the mire (think FIFA) so its important for all the lessons are learnt and perhaps things can be changed before they are ignitied. I don’t think Mr Juncker is the sort of guy who would take such advice...

 

[Melon Donkey]

The deal is over. The EU won't budge. It won't get through parliament.

A no deal cannot be allowed to happen. A no deal was not even considered at the time of the referendum. It will be a disaster if there was a no deal.

So the government. The ones who promised the referendum to win votes at the preceding election should now bite the bullet and cancel the withdrawal and admit they have failed.

They should then be prepared to fall on their a word and call an immediate general election which they will inevitably lose. The Tories losing power is the price they should pay for this shambles

Then the new government has a choice.

They either put the idea of Brexit to bed forever.

Or they try and negotiate a deal with the EU which is clearly presented to the public who then are given the opportunity to vote on it.

 

[BringbakMON]

The deal is over. The EU won't budge. It won't get through parliament.

A no deal cannot be allowed to happen. A no deal was not even considered at the time of referendum. It will be a disaster if there was a no deal.
.

didn't all the project fear stuff prior to the first 'people's vote' say just that - out completely, eternal darkness, the dead rising from their graves etc.
most folk still voted out
so crack on

 

[Melon Donkey]

didn't all the project fear stuff prior to the first 'people's vote' say just that - out completely, eternal darkness, the dead rising from their graves etc.
most folk still voted out
so crack on

Undoubtedly they did. I'm fully aware that what I suggest will not happen. Just my nieve, non understanding of politics ramble.

But the embarassment of May going back and forth to Brussels has to stop.
Pull the plug and face the consequences .

 

[danvilla2]

The deal is over. The EU won't budge. It won't get through parliament.

A no deal cannot be allowed to happen. A no deal was not even considered at the time of the referendum. It will be a disaster if there was a no deal.

So the government. The ones who promised the referendum to win votes at the preceding election should now bite the bullet and cancel the withdrawal and admit they have failed.

They should then be prepared to fall on their a word and call an immediate general election which they will inevitably lose. The Tories losing power is the price they should pay for this shambles

Then the new government has a choice.

They either put the idea of Brexit to bed forever.

Or they try and negotiate a deal with the EU which is clearly presented to the public who then are given the opportunity to vote on it.

My money is on 12 month extension, it’s the only viable option I can see. Not that I think 12 month extension does anyone any real favour, and probably gives the hard brexiteers more opportunity to get someone in to land it.

 

[danvilla2]

I agree there were a lot of negative consequences that didn’t materialise in the manner some suggested. The one thing that is mis-represented in the media is the BoE for example scenario plan they are not forecasting. When Carney spoke about house prices dropping by 30% it was a scenario - one of many. There is probably a scenario where floods of money come into the UK on the back of a stronger fx rate for foreigners. I hope the -30% forecast is accurate, no sympathy for the house boom generation - I’d like a cheap house.

The reality is though we have been hit. Interest rates increased to 0.75%, which impacts those on variable rates and those renewing fixed rates, protein fish and meat has increased by around 10%, energy has gone up by around 20% judging from my bill. I reckon my household bill has increased by £500 a year and mine is a fairly small household bill. The average family in a house with 2 kids is probably double my hit.

But I think the damage is happening under the radar at the moment. There will be a recession if we left with a no deal, there would have to be. The BoE would have a situation where it would have to increase interest rates to stifle inflation with everything going up by 5-10%. Which is not ideal if you are trying to get the economy moving again. Why would a company invest in the UK at the moment? It’s like putting money into your house when you are thinking about moving. A lot of people have a lot of debt in this country (a lot of day, living pay cheque to pay cheque on debt) - that bubble will burst.

Secondly, as Dr Posen in the video says, quantitative easing won’t work as companies will not want to invest whether it’s easier to get loans or not. What’s the point? The only thing they’ll do is take the loan as it’s chepaer than equity finance, and in a roundabout way sit on it, only investing what they would’ve done anyway.

In the event of a no deal (be it May 2019 or more likely if it is to happen 2020) then I do think the coming would take a short term hit but over time would recover. We might look back on Brexit in 20 years time and see that our economy has grown by 20% and say what was all the fuss about, we’re all richer - but the economy could’ve grown by 40% had we not had Brexit.

Wage growth has only just recovered from the financial crisis, which was really bad timing for me leaving university in 2009. I started on a wage £6-7k lower than people with similar degrees who were 3-4 years older and I reckon it took me 7 years to get to the right market wage for my role and experience.

I’m fairly sure there are parents and grandparents out there who have potentially put a real nail in the coffin of their kids careers if a no deal Brexit were to kick in.

And those same kids are expected to pay (and pay more) for old duffers who are so anti working age immigrants to pay their age related services they need.

The only good thing is I can’t see a situation where the UK doesn’t get some sort of deal (good or bad) so a lot of the above I do not believe will materialise. Fingers crossed at least

 

[northamptonvillan]

One of the best quotes I heard just after the referendum from colleague was “Brussels cares more about the British people than Westminster does” and it’s hard to debate. We’ve had years of austerity from one government after the one before gave everything away as a benefit and sold off half the gold reserves to pay for it.

Having watched the initial Brexit vote campaigns from both sides with horror and learned very little. We have now endured two years of political infighting from politicians, on both sides, who are more interested in ideology and the pursuit of power, than they are in the welfare and well being of the people they are supposed to represent.

To give the public a vote on such a complex socioeconomic and political issue was and is an abdication of responsibility. It says, we don't know whats best, so you tell us and we can blame you when it goes tits up, in much the same way as they have used the EU as a scapegoat for their own failures and shortcomings in the past. The Brexit result was an emotional and philosophical response because most people (including myself) were not well informed enough to vote in any other way. A new vote will illict the same type of response because people no longer trust or believe in the politicians that are supposed to represent them.

Sadly, I have come to the conclusion that we would probably be better off letting the European Commission and parliament run the country and dismiss those clowns in Westminster for good.

British politics is broken IMO.

 

[ironside]

I'm wondering whether people voted against something rather than for something. The ' least worst option' scenario.

 

[ironside]

Kefkat , I think that a lot of voters, far from lacking in understanding, focused on single issues in the debate and voted emotionally. Passion is a much lauded quality on the pitch or the stands but doesn't make for good judgement in politics.As for the IQ issue, I think we go down a dangerous road when we start to equate a person's worth with the value of their democratic right to express themselves. Anyway I see people with measurably high I Qs in Parliament demonstrating appalling
judgement on both sides of the house. I can best describe them as educated idiots.

 

[JuanPabloAngel]

Kefkat , I think that a lot of voters, far from lacking in understanding, focused on single issues in the debate and voted emotionally.

I am absolutely convinced that the overwhelming issue was immigration and the mistaken belief that EU migrants were coming to the UK and defrauding the benefits system. That just was not (and is not) the case.

 

[The Fear]

Great post northamptonvilla... it is totally broken and uttery driven by self interest and the silly 'chess' games by little rich kids.

And your last line ironside.. "educated idiots." Totally agree. They have no common sense, just expensively bought educations, very narrow educations at that I believe. Life experience? Not the sort of life experience we all have and there lays a major problem, it isn't their fault that they have been brought up in such privilege, but due to the fact they have and they are in their own little vacuum, they have no idea how serious the game they are playing is for the ordinary person in the street.

 

[northamptonvillan]

I am absolutely convinced that the overwhelming issue was immigration and the mistaken belief that EU migrants were coming to the UK and defrauding the benefits system. That just was not (and is not) the case.

Agree with you that immigration was a key issue. However I don't think it was about defrauding benefits but the sheer number that have arrived in the last 10 years, seeking work at the lower end of the economy and thus putting pressure on underfunded public services.

Prior to 2004, EU immigration was not highly visible in society, today a walk through any park or down any high street reveals a different picture. Add that to continued immigration from commonwealth countries and suspicion of those of Islamic persuasion and even though you may not agree, you can begin to see why the issue became most significant for some.

 

[kefkat]

Saying about I.Q was not aimed at all of them. I do know that racism and lack of understanding and not wanting to understand comes into it as well as emigration.

I have seen it and heard it from those angles and there is no explaining it to them. They aren't as few and far between as people like to think they are.

Seen too much of it with social media and unfortunately from in laws too as well as others I know through etc etc.

The absolute ignorance, racism etc in the posts is unbelievable. There is no explaining to them as they just don't want to know or understand.

Might be dangerous in your view! Ì may sound cynical. It's what I have seen.

I was at a public meeting on Brexit last Sunday. We are in a remain area so it wasnt divisive. There was a handful of Brexiteers there. The racist bile and so on that came out of their mouths were unbelievable.

Thet weren't even on about Europeans. They didn't get the difference between Europe and non Europe at all

 

[ironside]

Once again Kefkat I agree with you on the racist elements that have fed on the immigration aspects of Brexit. However, this racism is not the exclusive preserve of the far right. The anti semitism that seems to be an aspect of extreme elements of the Labour Party is a counter balance. Blaming minorities for the ills of society is a common tactic of the political extremes. It reached its apogee in the Nazi demonisation of Jews, gypsies and other undesirables including those with low I Qs and mental and physical weaknesses and was mirrored in the Commmunist demonisation of kulaks, the Tarters and other 'counter revolutionaries'.
Now it appears that Brexit is the fault of the old who hanker for a bygone age and those of poor intellect not capable of rational thought.
I know people who don't fit into either of those categories but still voted for Brexit. They saw the same warnings from Carney, Osbourne, Cameron and and Obama as me and read the same pamphlet. They made a different choice from me.
The trouble with meetings and rally's is that they attract not only people with legitimate concerns but extremists willing to exploit them. I suspect there was a fair sprinkling of those at the meeting you attended.
The divisions this whole issue has created are going to fester for a long time.

 

[Ranger]

However I will add that there is alot of people who do not understand the debate or what they are /were voting for. NOT all but there are alot with lower I.Q's who really don't understand what the problem and complexities are.

Will you accept this applies to both sides of the argument or is the implication that people with lower I.Qs only voted to leave?