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Coronavirus

Piece in today's Times (better journalism than dear old Grauniad and BBC despite being behind the despised Murdochs' firewall), does indeed suggest that the average age of coronavirus cases is getting lower in the UK.

Cases plateaued, death rates continue to fall as a result of the survival rate being better amongst younger victims (but its not then 'mild flu', it's still a killer).

However the virus is certainly not 'on its way out' yet, as restrictions are lifted and peoples' interpretation of this vary there will on-going local spikes. I don't share Boris Johnson's faith in 'good old British common-sense', there's clearly many who have very little if any of that. Attendees at demonstrations, raves, street parties, Bournemouth beaches and around Anfield might be examples.

Stay safe, etc, this still has a long way to go.
 
Chesterimp said:
Piece in today's Times (better journalism than dear old Grauniad and BBC despite being behind the despised Murdochs' firewall), does indeed suggest that the average age of coronavirus cases is getting lower in the UK.

Cases plateaued, death rates continue to fall as a result of the survival rate being better amongst younger victims (but its not then 'mild flu', it's still a killer).

However the virus is certainly not 'on its way out' yet, as restrictions are lifted and peoples' interpretation of this vary there will on-going local spikes. I don't share Boris Johnson's faith in 'good old British common-sense', there's clearly many who have very little if any of that. Attendees at demonstrations, raves, street parties, Bournemouth beaches and around Anfield might be examples.

Stay safe, etc, this still has a long way to go.
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No need to pay Rupert..it's all here
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...covid19infectionsurveypilot/england25june2020
 
57harry said:
Well it is slightly less than the peak -I last looked at this about a week or so ago. As of now I think "Broadly flat" would be more appropiate.
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4 week delay between rises in cases and rises in deaths being reported is the usual estimate from other places...
 
57harry said:
Well it is slightly less than the peak -I last looked at this about a week or so ago. As of now I think "Broadly flat" would be more appropiate.
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https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/26/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html

"Every epidemiologist was telling, screaming as loud as we could, that three weeks after Memorial Day, we'd have a peak in the cases, and five weeks after Memorial Day we'd begin to see a peak in hospitalizations and deaths," epidemiologist Larry Brilliant told CNN on Thursday night.

"Something's not working," Dr. Anthony Fauci said of the nation's current approach.
Overnight, Arizona and New Mexico joined Texas and other states in pausing their reopening plans.
The developments mark a "heartbreaking situation" that demands stricter actions immediately, said Dr. Peter Hotez of Baylor College of Medicine in Houston.
"We have to save lives at this point," he told CNN on Friday morning, before Abbott's order.

Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey said at a news conference Thursday, "It's growing, and it's growing fast across all age groups and demographics. Anyone can get this virus, and anyone can spread this virus."

With the rising numbers, some states are warning that the virus is affecting a wider range of people. More younger people testing positive is a "smoldering fire" that will hit vulnerable populations, said Erin Bromage, a CNN medical analyst and a biology professor at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth.
 
Sincilbanks said:
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/26/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html

"Every epidemiologist was telling, screaming as loud as we could, that three weeks after Memorial Day, we'd have a peak in the cases, and five weeks after Memorial Day we'd begin to see a peak in hospitalizations and deaths," epidemiologist Larry Brilliant told CNN on Thursday night.

"Something's not working," Dr. Anthony Fauci said of the nation's current approach.
Overnight, Arizona and New Mexico joined Texas and other states in pausing their reopening plans.
The developments mark a "heartbreaking situation" that demands stricter actions immediately, said Dr. Peter Hotez of Baylor College of Medicine in Houston.
"We have to save lives at this point," he told CNN on Friday morning, before Abbott's order.

Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey said at a news conference Thursday, "It's growing, and it's growing fast across all age groups and demographics. Anyone can get this virus, and anyone can spread this virus."

With the rising numbers, some states are warning that the virus is affecting a wider range of people. More younger people testing positive is a "smoldering fire" that will hit vulnerable populations, said Erin Bromage, a CNN medical analyst and a biology professor at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth.
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Well still a flat death trend in Arizona despite some of the increase in cases being a few weeks old. The next 2 weeks figures need careful monitoring.
 
57harry said:
Well still a flat death trend in Arizona despite some of the increase in cases being a few weeks old. The next 2 weeks figures need careful monitoring.
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https://www.texastribune.org/2020/06/25/texas-hospital-coronavirus-convention-centers/

The solicitations for volunteers come as researchers predict local hospitals could run out of beds to care for coronavirus patients next month, and as intensive care units in parts of the state have grown increasingly crowded.

Since June, numerous metrics to gauge the spread and severity of the coronavirus have lurched upwards in Texas, prompting Gov. Greg Abbott to pause elective procedures in four big counties Thursday, to free up hospital beds for COVID-19 patients.

We know how this works, it's old news now. First come the cases of community transmission, then come the hospitalisations, then come the deaths...
 
Sincilbanks said:
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/06/25/texas-hospital-coronavirus-convention-centers/

The solicitations for volunteers come as researchers predict local hospitals could run out of beds to care for coronavirus patients next month, and as intensive care units in parts of the state have grown increasingly crowded.

Since June, numerous metrics to gauge the spread and severity of the coronavirus have lurched upwards in Texas, prompting Gov. Greg Abbott to pause elective procedures in four big counties Thursday, to free up hospital beds for COVID-19 patients.

We know how this works, it's old news now. First come the cases of community transmission, then come the hospitalisations, then come the deaths...
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1276984682660401155

7 day rolling average of Texas hospitalisations..
 
Dr John Campbell's video today.

Scroll to 20 minutes in. Someone has sent a video from Singapore showing exactly how their test and trace app works.

It's absolutely possible to do this, and it's been working there for months. Our government is obfuscating, avoiding and misleading our public over this. It's not impossible to do, it's being done and it's working. We are simply incompetent and incapable of rolling something like this out in a meaningful timescale. The project needs handing over to someone capable of delivering it who is free of political interference and given a free hand to deliver it.

 
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/25/trump-focus-coronavirus-death-rates-dangerous-340758

Politico on Trumps desperate efforts to find any kind of silver lining in the Covid19 figures coming out of the US

President Donald Trump and Republican governors are pointing to fewer coronavirus deaths to suggest that the worst of the coronavirus pandemic has passed — and to blunt criticism that a surge of new infections in more than half the states is proof the country reopened too soon.

“If you’re going to do that with the death rate, you should be prepared to look at the death rate in a month or so,” said William Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard’s school of public health. “You might not find it so attractive.”

Most important, death follows weeks of illness in most coronavirus cases, which is why experts expect the death toll to rise sharply in the coming weeks.

“The deaths that get reported today are people who got infected three weeks ago,” said Robert Amler, a former HHS regional health administrator.

“They are grasping at straws to try and explain this away,” said Jeffrey Shaman, an infectious disease researcher at the Columbia University School of Public Health. “We’re looking at people picking at the margins for explanations to deny that we are seeing a surge.”
 
Texas removes it's ICU data which it has been publishing throughout the pandemic
https://www.newsweek.com/texas-medical-center-deletes-icu-data-amid-states-coronavirus-spike-1513943

The TMC also published data that showed ongoing changes to Houston's overall ICU capacity, which reached 100 percent late last week. On Wednesday, when 3 percent of the city's ICU beds remained available, the TMC's most recent report noted that nearly 900 additional beds could be added to local hospital units under the medical center's "sustainable surge" and "unsustainable surge plans."

Texas hospitalizations reached a new peak Saturday, with 5,523 virus patients admitted to medical facilities across the state. The latest figure surpassed record-high hospitalization numbers reported by the Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) throughout the second half of the month.

More than half of Texas patients currently hospitalized with symptoms of the novel virus were admitted during the last two weeks. According to the Texas DSHS, slightly more than 1,300 ICU beds were unoccupied throughout the state as of Saturday, as were close to 13,000 general-use hospital beds.
 
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