Coronavirus | Page 36 | Vital Football

Coronavirus

A second wave? Who cares! We want to be able to go to the pub, watch football and drink lattes. Who gives a shit if that means a few thousand vulnerable people die? Fuck them!
 
57harry said:
I would say Swedens policy has been a relative sucess,at least when you compare them to the UK. Their death rate is average when comparing to the rest of Europe,better than some but worse than others. However they have managed this without trashing their economy and incurring a huge bill for doing so. The bill for lockdown commitments in the UK is estimated to be £B 245,made up of £B 125 rescue measures and £B 120 lost taxes.

Proponents of lockdown state there would be a huge increase in deaths if it was not forthcoming.Well there is no evidence anywhere to support that,not in Sweden or anywhere else.Sweden held their nerve,the UK panicked
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And. Here. We. Go.
https://www.axios.com/texas-governo...ord-1248aa8d-da42-42ff-848f-c1184f77bb21.html

Texas governor urges people to stay home after record spike in coronavirus cases.
@GovAbbott tells Texans to stay home unless absolutely necessary as the state sets another record for new cases.
Texas was on of first states to *end* stay-home orders on April 30.
 
Sincilbanks said:
And. Here. We. Go.
https://www.axios.com/texas-governo...ord-1248aa8d-da42-42ff-848f-c1184f77bb21.html

Texas governor urges people to stay home after record spike in coronavirus cases.
@GovAbbott tells Texans to stay home unless absolutely necessary as the state sets another record for new cases.
Texas was on of first states to *end* stay-home orders on April 30.
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And one of the bullish Republican states that is ultra-keen on re-opening. The fact they've changed tack says a lot, to be honest, because they really, really don't want to.
 
Texas recording more than 5000 new cases a day. Given the well known ratio's of this virus, approximately 5% of those will require intensive care.

https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...9-cases-texas-reports-new-all-time-daily-high

New cases have hit the Houston area so hard that the Texas Children's Hospital is now admitting adult patients. The move comes despite the fact that Houston is home to the massive Texas Medical Center — deemed the largest medical center in the world.

Texas is facing "a steep terrifying rise" in COVID-19 hospitalizations and intensive care unit admissions at the Texas Medical Center, said Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, in a tweet about the current situation.

"We now face a public health crisis," Hotez added.

The dramatic new numbers do not represent a second wave in Texas, which was among the first states to start the reopening process. The state health department's graph of daily new cases shows a steady rise since the COVID-19 pandemic began to take hold in March. The curve began to arc even higher earlier this month, continuing with Tuesday's spike.

And most importantly:
Calling on people to follow safety rules about washing their hands, social distancing and wearing face coverings, he added, "Texans have shown that we don't have to choose between jobs and health — we can have both. We can protect lives while also restoring livelihoods."

We're about to find out, aren't we?
 
I suppose one difference could be that Texas never actually got R much below 1.0. I haven't checked the stats, to be honest, but it wouldn't surprise if they didn't.

At least we *seem* to have managed that here.

Edit: it's not being described as a second wave and it seems infection rates have been on a steady climb, so I'm guessing they never really had this under control at any point.
 
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NottyImp said:
I suppose one difference could be that Texas never actually got R much below 1.0. I haven't checked the stats, to be honest, but it wouldn't surprise if they didn't.

At least we *seem* to have managed that here.
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Well they didn't have a "lockdown" as we would understand it really. From May 15th
https://www.latimes.com/world-natio...-as-texas-governor-readies-to-lift-more-rules

But on the cusp of even more restrictions ending Monday, including gyms cleared to reopen, a political confrontation is growing over attempts by big cities to keep some guardrails. The dispute underscores the gulf between Democrats who run city halls and GOP leaders who call the shots in the capital in Texas, where unlike in other states, the governor’s orders supersede all local mandates during the pandemic.

“Unfortunately, a few Texas counties and cities seem to have confused recommendations with requirements and have grossly exceeded state law to impose their own will on private citizens and businesses,” Paxton said.

City leaders said their local orders, which include more stringent emphasis on face coverings in public and restaurant protocols that aren’t strictly enforced, don’t conflict. El Paso County Judge Ricardo Samaniego said he made his case to the governor in a phone call, asking for a few more weeks to assess data and reduce cases before more restrictions are lifted, but believes he won’t get an answer until Abbott’s public announcement Monday.
 
Sincilbanks said:
Seems to gloss over the fact that there appears to be good evidence that medical practitioners in Sweden were effectively conducting euthanasia on at least some elderly residents of care homes with the treatment advice over the phone.
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I haven't heard about that. Source?
 
NottyImp said:
I haven't heard about that. Source?
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Scroll forward to 9:51 but really the whole video is a damning indictment on Sweden's approach from an experienced health care professional with a working history and contacts that are worldwide. He says his source for this information is the BMJ report which I think you (and I) have already linked to.

Would be also well worth scrolling to 28:00 where this extremely experienced health professional gives a withering verdict on the benefits Sweden has obtained as a result.

"My question would be, does this represent the approach of a civilised people?"

BMJ source as linked in the video:
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2376

More worryingly, Swedish doctors have expressed alarm over the matter-of-factness with which authorities seem to be treating the plight of older and vulnerable people.

Yngve Gustafsson, professor of geriatric medicine at Umea University, noted that the proportion of older people in respiratory care nationally was lower than at the same time a year ago, despite people over 70 being the worst affected by covid-19. He expressed concern about the increasing practice of doctors recommending by telephone a “palliative cocktail” for sick older people in care homes.

“Older people are routinely being given morphine and midazolam, which are respiratory-inhibiting,” he told the Svenska Dagbladet newspaper,5 “It’s active euthanasia, to say the least.”
 
NottyImp said:
It doesn't look good for England:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...clared-as-people-flock-to-england-south-coast
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It remains to be seen whether this leads to a rise in cases ,never mind about fatilities. There hasn't been any rise in such since the recent demonstrations/riots in London so why the panic over people enjoying themselves at the seaside ? The last 3 weeks have seen the weekly death toll decline by 24%,28% and 22 % which indicates the virus is on its way out.
 
Sincilbanks said:
Well they didn't have a "lockdown" as we would understand it really. From May 15th
https://www.latimes.com/world-natio...-as-texas-governor-readies-to-lift-more-rules

But on the cusp of even more restrictions ending Monday, including gyms cleared to reopen, a political confrontation is growing over attempts by big cities to keep some guardrails. The dispute underscores the gulf between Democrats who run city halls and GOP leaders who call the shots in the capital in Texas, where unlike in other states, the governor’s orders supersede all local mandates during the pandemic.

“Unfortunately, a few Texas counties and cities seem to have confused recommendations with requirements and have grossly exceeded state law to impose their own will on private citizens and businesses,” Paxton said.

City leaders said their local orders, which include more stringent emphasis on face coverings in public and restaurant protocols that aren’t strictly enforced, don’t conflict. El Paso County Judge Ricardo Samaniego said he made his case to the governor in a phone call, asking for a few more weeks to assess data and reduce cases before more restrictions are lifted, but believes he won’t get an answer until Abbott’s public announcement Monday.
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The death rate in Texas remains on a slight downtrend even though the increase has been with us several weeks. One explanation given that there has been a catch up in testing.Another is that the rise in cases is largely among young people who are not hospitalised and sent home to recover. If that continues then there will not be a spike. It will be necessary to strictly monitor this over the next few weeks.

The trend in the US overall is down although case numbers have risen.
 
57harry said:
The death rate in Texas remains on a slight downtrend even though the increase has been with us several weeks. One explanation given that there has been a catch up in testing.Another is that the rise in cases is largely among young people who are not hospitalised and sent home to recover. If that continues then there will not be a spike. It will be necessary to strictly monitor this over the next few weeks.

The trend in the US overall is down although case numbers have risen.
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Even Dr Fauci says deaths lag behind cases. He says it in public testimony to the senate towards the end of the Rachel Maddow video I linked.

Testing has not significantly increased in Texas (it certainly did some weeks ago) and changed the way it published the numbers in March for contracting coronavirus. (resulting in an increase) but other than that things don't look good.
It is certainly true that more people in Texas are getting private tests, but they don't represent a significant amount (3%)

Regardless from the middle of May they were doing roughly a shade under 30,000 tests a day and they now have a peak of just over 40,000 tests a day.

Given Texas' rate of new infections is running at a "positivity rate" of something in the region of 12% and in Mid May it was running at a little under 5% and this is the rate the governor is taking notice of it's understandable he's somewhat concerned.

Could these people be younger people? Certainly they could.
Are a proportion of these people people of colour? No-one knows but I'm willing to bet they are
Will these people go home to their families? One assumes so

Source:
https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronavirus-cases-map/

Gov. Greg Abbott said he is watching the state's positivity rate — the percentage of positive cases to tests conducted. The average daily positivity rate is calculated by dividing the 7-day average of positive cases by the 7-day average of tests conducted. This shows how the situation has changed over time by de-emphasizing daily swings. Public health experts want the average positivity rate to remain below 6%.

Under Gov. Greg Abbott’s plan to revive the economy, businesses started reopening in May. The governor is looking at two specific metrics to justify his decision to allow reopenings — the positive test rate and hospitalization levels. Even as hospitalizations have increased dramatically in June, Abbott has said closing businesses will be “the last option” and has touted Texas’ hospital capacity as plentiful. But some local officials are worried hospitals could soon become overwhelmed.

On June 25, the state reported 12,597 available staffed hospital beds, including 1,322 available staffed ICU beds.

According to DSHS, these numbers do not include beds at psychiatric hospitals or other psychiatric facilities. They do include psychiatric and pediatric beds at general hospitals, and pediatric beds at children’s hospitals.

Given the ratio of cases to those requiring intensive care is pretty fixed, it wouldn't take a mathematical genius to work out at this rate of increase when Texas runs out of ICU beds. In Lombardy it was about 5%. Let's be incredibly generous and assume Texas has a younger demographic and call it 3% (and that's ignoring the persons of colour ratio that we don't have, one assumes it's higher in Texas than Lombardy) at roughly 50,000 more cases they will probably run out of ICU beds, so you can see why health experts are worried when the current rate is.

I suspect what the governor doesn't understand intuitively is exponential growth and how it works, just like our government didn't.
 
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