Coronavirus | Vital Football

Coronavirus

Sincilbanks

Vital 1st Team Regular
#1
Yesterday at 10:36 PM
#204
Vitals is so incredibly lucky to have such a super intelligent set of posters. Not only do many think they know all the answers to footballing matters they know more about health matters than the Chief Medical Officer and the leading scientists in the country.
But hey ho lets blame Boris Johnson and his government, absolutely priceless. Confirms social studies that football fans in general have a much lower than average IQ."

This isn't just my opinion it's the opinion of educated, experienced, highly trained medical professionals of more than 30 years standing. Really all I'm doing is watching and educating myself about this away from the mainstream media from people who know what they are talking about.

https://www.youtube.com/user/Campbellteaching/videos

This guy has been talking about this since January on his channel, everything he has said has come true, he has emails from many many health professionals around the world, including China. Now the CMO might well be right, I definitely hope so but this guy is definitely of the opinion we should have been shutting down Cheltenham for instance.

I urge you to watch at least some of these and realise that what you might be assuming about this virus is not the case.

Edited to add, I am not attacking this government I am attacking all politicians who are simply standing by and watching stuff happen right now it appears to me
 

Brendan Bradley

Vital Squad Member
#3
I am not attacking this government I am attacking all politicians who are simply standing by and watching stuff happen right now it appears to me
What concerns me is that when politicians get involved, they are are so incredibly risk averse that the wrong decisions are taken regardless.

I live in Spain. As of now there are no bars or restaurants open in the entire country. As of tomorrow morning the only businesses allowed to open will be food shops, pharmacies, IT shops, hairdressers, news stands, and for some reason that escapes me when attempting to control a serious respiratory virus, tobacconists.

This has happened quickly. Football was played last weekend, and on Tuesday they decided to play behind closed doors. By Wednesday all leagues were postponed.

The reason I think this is an over-reaction is because most of the issues in Spain are in Madrid. The Madrid region has a 7 million population in an area that's about 10% bigger than Lincolnshire. They currently have over 3000 live cases and at today's count around 130 deaths.

In the Valencia region where I live there are 188 active cases according to this morning's news, with 3 people in a serious condition. To put this in perspective Valencia is a region with a population of 5 million people and an area larger than the whole of Wales.

So far three people have died, two of those yesterday, aged 77 and 90, both with pre-existing medical conditions.

In this area, and indeed in most of Spain, there is no imminent threat. The hospitals are not overrun with cases, yet you may have seen the social media videos of the police effectively imposing de-facto martial law in Benidorm.

Shutting down all retail business runs the risk of devastating the economy with severe consequences of its own.

I do not see why an exclusion zone couldn't have been put around Madrid and other places with a high incidence like the Basque Region and La Rioja.

Doing nothing is sometimes a better response. I learnt this from Sir Humphrey in Yes Minister.
 

Sincilbanks

Vital 1st Team Regular
#4
What concerns me is that when politicians get involved, they are are so incredibly risk averse that the wrong decisions are taken regardless.

I live in Spain. As of now there are no bars or restaurants open in the entire country. As of tomorrow morning the only businesses allowed to open will be food shops, pharmacies, IT shops, hairdressers, news stands, and for some reason that escapes me when attempting to control a serious respiratory virus, tobacconists.

This has happened quickly. Football was played last weekend, and on Tuesday they decided to play behind closed doors. By Wednesday all leagues were postponed.

The reason I think this is an over-reaction is because most of the issues in Spain are in Madrid. The Madrid region has a 7 million population in an area that's about 10% bigger than Lincolnshire. They currently have over 3000 live cases and at today's count around 130 deaths.

In the Valencia region where I live there are 188 active cases according to this morning's news, with 3 people in a serious condition. To put this in perspective Valencia is a region with a population of 5 million people and an area larger than the whole of Wales.

So far three people have died, two of those yesterday, aged 77 and 90, both with pre-existing medical conditions.

In this area, and indeed in most of Spain, there is no imminent threat. The hospitals are not overrun with cases, yet you may have seen the social media videos of the police effectively imposing de-facto martial law in Benidorm.

Shutting down all retail business runs the risk of devastating the economy with severe consequences of its own.

I do not see why an exclusion zone couldn't have been put around Madrid and other places with a high incidence like the Basque Region and La Rioja.

Doing nothing is sometimes a better response. I learnt this from Sir Humphrey in Yes Minister.
The growth is exponential, the earlier you reduce the daily cases (Rnought) the less the impact on the healthcare system. I can almost guarantee there are not 188 active cases in Valencia, what they have is 188 cases confirmed via testing.

The modelling shows that if China had taken measures to contain the virus in Wuhan 3 weeks earlier they would have reduced cases by 95%.
 

Brendan Bradley

Vital Squad Member
#5
The growth is exponential, the earlier you reduce the daily cases (Rnought) the less the impact on the healthcare system. I can almost guarantee there are not 188 active cases in Valencia, what they have is 188 cases confirmed via testing.

The modelling shows that if China had taken measures to contain the virus in Wuhan 3 weeks earlier they would have reduced cases by 95%.
I understand the idea, but this cure could do more damage overall.

As I mentioned, they have an epidemic in very specific regions already, as does Italy for that matter (I have business contacts in Salerno where they don't have many cases either, but have to get written permission to go out of their own homes).

It would make more sense to do it region by region as necessary and not trash all economic activity, which can bring a very lasting and very real hardship.
 

Sincilbanks

Vital 1st Team Regular
#6
I understand the idea, but this cure could do more damage overall.

As I mentioned, they have an epidemic in very specific regions already, as does Italy for that matter (I have business contacts in Salerno where they don't have many cases either, but have to get written permission to go out of their own homes).

It would make more sense to do it region by region as necessary and not trash all economic activity, which can bring a very lasting and very real hardship.
It really doesn't matter once you have community transmission. People will have been spreading the virus for anywhere between 5 and 14 days before their case is detected (although it appears most virulent for the 3 days after symptoms appear)

If you don't test you don't detect, if you don't detect you get community transmission, once you have community transmission then people will be travelling who are either asymptomatic or presymptomatic. Once that happens you have your epidemic.

Locking down an individual area is not going to contain the spread because unless you are testing in large amounts early enough you're never going to detect the spread in the community in time and the virus will spread everywhere.

These are basic epidemic facts, they are well known, they are well understood by medical professionals. Cases might be low in the south of Italy now but they are coming, national lockdown or not.

Is this pandemic going to be catastrophic financially? Absolutely.
Is doing nothing going to reduce that financial catastrophy? Absolutely not, all that will happen is that the spike of cases will be much much sharper and more people will die.

Things might be bad in Lombardy now, but they are nowhere near the peak apparently...

 

Sincilbanks

Vital 1st Team Regular
#7
I understand the idea, but this cure could do more damage overall.

As I mentioned, they have an epidemic in very specific regions already, as does Italy for that matter (I have business contacts in Salerno where they don't have many cases either, but have to get written permission to go out of their own homes).

It would make more sense to do it region by region as necessary and not trash all economic activity, which can bring a very lasting and very real hardship.
From an epidemiologist at Harvard
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...st-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19

"Keeping people safe means self-isolation if you develop symptoms, but the official advice here is also misleading. While it is of paramount importance that sick people stay at home to avoid infecting others, it is increasingly clear that transmission can occur before symptoms develop. We know this is true from modelling and observational studies. I have seen it happen myself. We do not know how often it occurs or how important it is in the epidemiology, but it definitely does happen.

However, arguments about the case fatality rate, the transmission parameters and presymptomatic transmission all miss the point. This virus is capable of shutting down countries. You should not want to be the next after Wuhan, Iran, Italy or Spain. In those places, the healthcare systems have broken down. In Italy, the choices of whom to save and whom to allow to die are real. You should instead look to the example of South Korea, which, through a combination of intense surveillance and social distancing, appears to have gained some semblance of control over the virus. We can learn from South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan, all of which have so far done a good job mitigating the worst outcomes despite having reported cases early in the pandemic, and in the case of South Korea, suffering a substantial outbreak."
 

Brendan Bradley

Vital Squad Member
#8
The healthcare system has not broken down in Spain. It probably has in Madrid.

I think you're missing my point. I'm saying it is probably only necessary for the moment to isolate certain areas of countries.

Politicians, for want of having to show they're doing something, usually over-react.
 

Sincilbanks

Vital 1st Team Regular
#9
The healthcare system has not broken down in Spain. It probably has in Madrid.

I think you're missing my point. I'm saying it is probably only necessary for the moment to isolate certain areas of countries.

Politicians, for want of having to show they're doing something, usually over-react.
I can't explain it any other way...It will break down elsewhere. The virus is in Valencia, it probably has between 10 and 20 times the detected cases. I'm really not sure what else to say Brendan.

If politicians are overreacting now it's because they singularly failed to react earlier. They failed to take it seriously because cases were in the single figures.

They failed to take it seriously because the political fall out of the truth would have had the population up in arms about what is "Just a flu" (see this forum for examples).

They failed to take it seriously because it cost money and time and effort.

And now all that failure is coming back to haunt them because the amount of people who are going to die is going to be politically unacceptable.

They finally understand in real terms what doing nothing is going to cost them and are desperate to slow this pandemic because they finally realise what's at stake.

Hell even Cuomo in New York gets it

"We have never fought a virus like this, with this potential consequence"
 

Sincilbanks

Vital 1st Team Regular
#11
It remains to be seen how many will perish. 1,600 people per day usually die in the UK, on average.

Here's a different statistical take which suggest the average life span will be shortened by just 3 months due to Covid19 - worst case

https://motls.blogspot.com/2020/03/...ns.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
How many perish is entirely dependant on our ability to flatten the spike. Everything that can be done to do that should be done. We've missed enough boats already to reduce the spread...
 

Sincilbanks

Vital 1st Team Regular
#12
It remains to be seen how many will perish. 1,600 people per day usually die in the UK, on average.

Here's a different statistical take which suggest the average life span will be shortened by just 3 months due to Covid19 - worst case

https://motls.blogspot.com/2020/03/...ns.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
And how many survive due to excellent healthcare, prompt access to surgery, prompt access to oxygen and prompt access to nursing and doctor expertise, those people will also be at risk once the health service is overwhelmed.
 

Imprest 1

Vital 1st Team Regular
#18
Just watching Sky news that chief scientific adviser Vallance is hoping the measures put in place will limit deaths to 20,000 or less.
 
Last edited: