Coronavirus tipping point | Page 150 | Vital Football

Coronavirus tipping point

nitram77 said:
statistics will always cause problems, the 5 year average death rate is a good example. If this year ended with 60,000 deaths above the 5 year average, that would skew the figures for the next 5 years. next year could have 10,000 deaths above the current average, but because the new average will have increased by 12,000 the figure would show as below average.
sorry if that sounds a little garbled, but it does show how no statistics can be taken on face value, they are one of many tools.
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But you would take out exceptional items in order not to skew figures year on year just as they do when marking ice skating - they exclude the highest and lowest marks
 
Wayne.Kerr said:
But you would take out exceptional items in order not to skew figures year on year just as they do when marking ice skating - they exclude the highest and lowest marks
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Unfortunately they don't do that though.
2018 had the highest death rate since 1999 yet is still included.

"In 2018, there were 541,589 deaths registered in England and Wales, an increase of 1.6% compared with 2017 (533,253); this is the highest annual number of deaths since 1999. "
 
Rumour from the NHS man in charge is that the test and trace scheme won't be world-class until September/October.
 
Finally saw my 5 month old grandchild again today 2 metres obviously. My daughter said that all of the young mothers from her pregnancy and also most of the people she knows on facebook etc have given up and are mixing with families and friends. She thinks my wife and I are the odd ones out.

I have said for weeks, its all over bar the shouting.
 
Wayne.Kerr said:
Data is skewed because of the inclusion of the likes of Wyomings in the figures and we know that UK figures are higher;.....
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What ?
If you are saying that including 300,000 people from Wyoming .... which probably has a low Covid rate "skews" downwards the national U.S. figures.....
.....then that is precisely why State, County, City, Zipcode figures would be more informative.....
(.... in the UK too.)

We probably have enough info to conclude that pop. density is a factor.....
...but the best way to learn about other factors is to drill down to smaller areas to expose smaller groups that would otherwise be overlooked.

Until Covid came along, media types utterly failed to explain statistics properly.

Wayne.Kerr said:
.... and we know that UK figures are higher; higher in the sense that the Govt. only reports deaths of those who tested positive.
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What ?
I think you'll find that Covid only has to be "suspected" to be reported ... and as one of several causes of death.

Apparently, German death rates appear much lower ... because Covid has to be "proved" at autopsy.
Can anyone confirm ?

(Maybe we are back to "excess deaths" as the "best" indicator)
 
Noticed that today, on the day that the UK went past the 40,000 death mark, there was not one person from science or medicine at the daily briefing. Just Mr Hancock with his prepared statements. I should have been surprised but I wasn't.
 
But we know the true figure is between 50,000 and 60,000 but the Govt only reports deaths based on positive tests.
 
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