Coronavirus tipping point | Page 149 | Vital Football

Coronavirus tipping point

I find it interesting that we are always compared to Spain, Italy, Sweden, Ireland etc and lambasted about how bad we are doing but some work has been done regarding population density. This is obviously an important factor as the closer together that people are, or live, the easier it is to spread. So i did a little search and found this. I think it's interesting that not only are we doing considerably better than the countries mentioned above at one death per million per km² but are equal with Switzerland and The Netherlands.
I know this won't interest many as it would appear to indicate that actually, our government may be doing OK but interesting all the same and provides a little context.
On a website for Lib Dem supporters too 😳

View attachment 39894

Link to site, few weeks out if date but not sure it would be massively different now
https://www.libdemvoice.org/should-...hen-comparing-countries-on-covid19-64333.html

Figures from the end of April. Sadly we have been consistently recording more deaths than all those countries, apart from the US, since then. I can see why this theory was considered but there are some countries with very dense populations that have negotiated the virus well, Taiwan the stand out example.
 
Figures from the end of April. Sadly we have been consistently recording more deaths than all those countries, apart from the US, since then. I can see why this theory was considered but there are some countries with very dense populations that have negotiated the virus well, Taiwan the stand out example.

Compliance makes a difference as well.
Taiwan had nearly 100%
I don’t know what ours is but yesterday i
watched about 10,000 people from one of the most deadly affected communities not socially distancing in London.
Will they contaminate Grandma?
 
Figures from the end of April. Sadly we have been consistently recording more deaths than all those countries, apart from the US, since then. I can see why this theory was considered but there are some countries with very dense populations that have negotiated the virus well, Taiwan the stand out example.
I don't think we've had that many to have affected a per million per km² figure and I do see your point, some countries have performed much better than others, I'm not saying we're world champs but as i said in my post, I thought it was an interesting article, adds some context and is just as meaningful or meaningless as a total with no allowance whatsoever.
 
I find it interesting that we are always compared to Spain, Italy, Sweden, Ireland etc and lambasted about how bad we are doing but some work has been done regarding population density. This is obviously an important factor as the closer together that people are, or live, the easier it is to spread. So i did a little search and found this. I think it's interesting that not only are we doing considerably better than the countries mentioned above at one death per million per km² but are equal with Switzerland and The Netherlands.
I know this won't interest many as it would appear to indicate that actually, our government may be doing OK but interesting all the same and provides a little context.
On a website for Lib Dem supporters too 😳

View attachment 39894

Link to site, few weeks out if date but not sure it would be massively different now
https://www.libdemvoice.org/should-...hen-comparing-countries-on-covid19-64333.html
That would assume even spread. Places like Sweden/Ireland for example, have high concentrations in a few areas.
 
Pretty meaningless unless comparisons are made with inner city/urban populations, for example. As the article points out, figures roping Wyoming in with New York State distort the outcome.
Why be so dismissive ?

It's been pretty clear that population density has been a major factor.
It's good to see a table supporting that.

Of course New York was/ is worse than Wyoming.
Newt Gingrich pointed out that about a dozen rural Counties had had zero cases.

I hope we get a UK map with Covid by Postcode.
If it does NOT confirm pop.density, then it might suggest something else.
 
I find it interesting that we are always compared to Spain, Italy, Sweden, Ireland etc and lambasted about how bad we are doing but some work has been done regarding population density. This is obviously an important factor as the closer together that people are, or live, the easier it is to spread. So i did a little search and found this. I think it's interesting that not only are we doing considerably better than the countries mentioned above at one death per million per km² but are equal with Switzerland and The Netherlands.
I know this won't interest many as it would appear to indicate that actually, our government may be doing OK but interesting all the same and provides a little context.
On a website for Lib Dem supporters too 😳

View attachment 39894

Link to site, few weeks out if date but not sure it would be massively different now
https://www.libdemvoice.org/should-...hen-comparing-countries-on-covid19-64333.html

This poulation density matrix is a complete red herring. In every country most people live in very close proximity in cities and towns. As i pointed out before 25% of the New Zealand poulation live in Auckland.
Deaths per million poulation makes a bit more sense for comparisons.
 
There are so many factors that can influence the statistics, the average age of the population is a large factor as the virus kills the elderly (India has a average age of 55) the health of the population, how well the long term sick in the population are cared for (how many are there in the population) how willing the people are to wear a mask and social distance.
It's always easy to criticize without knowing the facts, the time for that is after the public inquiry is completed.
 
This poulation density matrix is a complete red herring. In every country most people live in very close proximity in cities and towns. As i pointed out before 25% of the New Zealand poulation live in Auckland.
Deaths per million poulation makes a bit more sense for comparisons.
"This poulation density matrix is a complete red herring."
Is this proven or your opinion?
Serious question, I didn't see anything suggesting that during my little Google session, there are a number of articles suggesting otherwise. None claim it is a perfect guide but I've not read anything that dismissive.
Straight deaths per million on its own isn't exactly scientific, it does however make for a great graphic being shared on facebook by people like my cousin who hates Boris 😁😁😁
As I hinted in the post, I'm not exactly surprised by it's rapid dismissal, or it's dismissers 🤔
 
Nobby, why the big difference in forces, are Kent better behaved, or Sussex police very strict.
https://www.kentlive.news/news/kent-news/vast-difference-between-amount-lockdown-4193900
Probably neither, different forces have policed this differently, which they are entitled to do. The Met, for example, used the lockdown rules to advise and educate, preferring to solve rather than dish out fines. Sussex appear to have gone more "zero tolerance".
Both are allowed and the decision is usually made by the police and crime commissioner for that area.
 
"This poulation density matrix is a complete red herring."
Is this proven or your opinion?
Serious question, I didn't see anything suggesting that during my little Google session, there are a number of articles suggesting otherwise. None claim it is a perfect guide but I've not read anything that dismissive.
Straight deaths per million on its own isn't exactly scientific, it does however make for a great graphic being shared on facebook by people like my cousin who hates Boris 😁😁😁
As I hinted in the post, I'm not exactly surprised by it's rapid dismissal, or it's dismissers 🤔

Sorry Nobs if you cant see the logic I'm not going there
 
Deaths per million population makes a bit more sense for comparisons.
Sorry Archie - but too often "statistics" are presented as a single number - which can be highly misleading without context.

As WK pointed out a single, national average Covid number cannot capture the range of infections from high incidence NY to low incidence Wyoming.
(And IIRC the population of Wyoming is about 300,000.)

The UK also has huge density variations.
A short drive from Glasgow are the empty Highlands.
So what would be the point of aggregating infection rates from each - unless to hide a relevant factor ?

The UK Govt often publishes data down to Council Ward level (around 12,000 voters in London Boroughs) - so why not for Covid ?

Some factor other than density might be revealed - of interest to epidemiologists - or to Councils.
 
Why be so dismissive ?
Data is skewed because of the inclusion of the likes of Wyomings in the figures and we know that UK figures are higher; higher in the sense that the Govt. only reports deaths of those who tested positive.
 
Sorry Nobs if you cant see the logic I'm not going there
No need to apologise as, of course, I see the logic as I am quite open minded and won't just dismiss the idea because it doesn't fit with what I want to believe or think I know better. I just don't see how one method of counting is any more accurate or scientific than the other, both have holes and until someone comes up with a foolproof one, I'll remain open to all.
I thought it was an interesting article and thought I'd share, nothing more.
 
statistics will always cause problems, the 5 year average death rate is a good example. If this year ended with 60,000 deaths above the 5 year average, that would skew the figures for the next 5 years. next year could have 10,000 deaths above the current average, but because the new average will have increased by 12,000 the figure would show as below average.
sorry if that sounds a little garbled, but it does show how no statistics can be taken on face value, they are one of many tools.