Calvin Plummer
Vital Football Legend
Pope: I really don't have the patience today to explain the basics of inflation to you today (especially within a closed system like football), nor about the actual distortion being the Sky money. So either do some googling or stay ignorant.
Here however are the last 10 years results for relegated PL teams:
2006-7: 18 Shef Utd (9th), 19 Charlton (11th), 20 Watford (6th)
2007-8: 18 Reading (4th), 19 Birmingham (2nd), 20 Derby (18th)
2008-9: 18 Newcastle (1st), 19 Boro (11th), 20 West Brom (2nd)
2009-10: 18 Burnley (8th), 19 Hull (11th), 20 Portsmouth (16th)
2010-11: 18 Birmingham (4th), 19 Blackpool (5th), 20 West Ham (3rd)
2011-12: 18 Bolton (7th), 19 Blackburn (17th), 20 Wolves (23rd)
2012-13: 18 Wigan (5th), 19 Reading (7th), 20 QPR (4th)
2013-14: 18 Norwich (3rd), 19 Fulham (17th), 20 Cardiff (11th)
2014-15: 18 Hull (4th), 19 Burnley (1st), 20 QPR (12th)
2015-16: 18 Newcastle (1st), 19 Norwich (8th), 20 Villa (13th)
Number of relegated teams winning automatic promotion in the following season: 6 out of 30
Number of relegated teams finishing in top 6 in the following season: 16 out of 30
So, the chances of bouncing straight back up automatically over the last 10 years have been 1 in 5.
The odds of finishing in the top 6 have been (more or less) evens.
The average position of a relegated team the following season is between 7th and 8th.
Given that relegated teams with far larger budgets and far stronger playing squads have odds of just 20% of bouncing straight back up that hardly seem overwhelming.
Still if they don't get promoted it must be easier the next year? Nope. Teams that didn't go up in their first season dropped an average of 1.2 places in their second season.
Third year is a charm? After all they've had time to adjust to the championship and splash all that cash you're so worried about. Again no, they have an average league position of 13.4 in their third season. In essence, that means that if you're still kicking around two seasons after getting relegated, chances are you're actually worse than the average Championship team.
In fact relegated clubs are almost as likely to suffer a second relegation as win the league....
PSA: yes a lot was C+P..
Here however are the last 10 years results for relegated PL teams:
2006-7: 18 Shef Utd (9th), 19 Charlton (11th), 20 Watford (6th)
2007-8: 18 Reading (4th), 19 Birmingham (2nd), 20 Derby (18th)
2008-9: 18 Newcastle (1st), 19 Boro (11th), 20 West Brom (2nd)
2009-10: 18 Burnley (8th), 19 Hull (11th), 20 Portsmouth (16th)
2010-11: 18 Birmingham (4th), 19 Blackpool (5th), 20 West Ham (3rd)
2011-12: 18 Bolton (7th), 19 Blackburn (17th), 20 Wolves (23rd)
2012-13: 18 Wigan (5th), 19 Reading (7th), 20 QPR (4th)
2013-14: 18 Norwich (3rd), 19 Fulham (17th), 20 Cardiff (11th)
2014-15: 18 Hull (4th), 19 Burnley (1st), 20 QPR (12th)
2015-16: 18 Newcastle (1st), 19 Norwich (8th), 20 Villa (13th)
Number of relegated teams winning automatic promotion in the following season: 6 out of 30
Number of relegated teams finishing in top 6 in the following season: 16 out of 30
So, the chances of bouncing straight back up automatically over the last 10 years have been 1 in 5.
The odds of finishing in the top 6 have been (more or less) evens.
The average position of a relegated team the following season is between 7th and 8th.
Given that relegated teams with far larger budgets and far stronger playing squads have odds of just 20% of bouncing straight back up that hardly seem overwhelming.
Still if they don't get promoted it must be easier the next year? Nope. Teams that didn't go up in their first season dropped an average of 1.2 places in their second season.
Third year is a charm? After all they've had time to adjust to the championship and splash all that cash you're so worried about. Again no, they have an average league position of 13.4 in their third season. In essence, that means that if you're still kicking around two seasons after getting relegated, chances are you're actually worse than the average Championship team.
In fact relegated clubs are almost as likely to suffer a second relegation as win the league....
PSA: yes a lot was C+P..