CONFIRMED...

[Calvin Plummer]

Pope: I really don't have the patience today to explain the basics of inflation to you today (especially within a closed system like football), nor about the actual distortion being the Sky money. So either do some googling or stay ignorant.

Here however are the last 10 years results for relegated PL teams:

2006-7: 18 Shef Utd (9th), 19 Charlton (11th), 20 Watford (6th)

2007-8: 18 Reading (4th), 19 Birmingham (2nd), 20 Derby (18th)

2008-9: 18 Newcastle (1st), 19 Boro (11th), 20 West Brom (2nd)

2009-10: 18 Burnley (8th), 19 Hull (11th), 20 Portsmouth (16th)

2010-11: 18 Birmingham (4th), 19 Blackpool (5th), 20 West Ham (3rd)

2011-12: 18 Bolton (7th), 19 Blackburn (17th), 20 Wolves (23rd)

2012-13: 18 Wigan (5th), 19 Reading (7th), 20 QPR (4th)

2013-14: 18 Norwich (3rd), 19 Fulham (17th), 20 Cardiff (11th)

2014-15: 18 Hull (4th), 19 Burnley (1st), 20 QPR (12th)

2015-16: 18 Newcastle (1st), 19 Norwich (8th), 20 Villa (13th) 


Number of relegated teams winning automatic promotion in the following season: 6 out of 30

Number of relegated teams finishing in top 6 in the following season: 16 out of 30

So, the chances of bouncing straight back up automatically over the last 10 years have been 1 in 5.

The odds of finishing in the top 6 have been (more or less) evens.

The average position of a relegated team the following season is between 7th and 8th.

Given that relegated teams with far larger budgets and far stronger playing squads have odds of just 20% of bouncing straight back up that hardly seem overwhelming.

Still if they don't get promoted it must be easier the next year? Nope. Teams that didn't go up in their first season dropped an average of 1.2 places in their second season.

Third year is a charm? After all they've had time to adjust to the championship and splash all that cash you're so worried about. Again no, they have an average league position of 13.4 in their third season. In essence, that means that if you're still kicking around two seasons after getting relegated, chances are you're actually worse than the average Championship team.

In fact relegated clubs are almost as likely to suffer a second relegation as win the league....


PSA: yes a lot was C+P..

 

[the jock]

terrific stats there plummer.

I do wish you posted like this more often.

 

[LyttleByLyttle]

Owd Alt V strikes again.

 

[MarvinsPA]

I wonder if anyone grasps the irony of repeatedly using the same copy & paste 'joke'?

 

[Pope John XXIII]

Calvin Plummer - 19/5/2017 15:26

Pope: I really don't have the patience today to explain the basics of inflation to you today (especially within a closed system like football), nor about the actual distortion being the Sky money. So either do some googling or stay ignorant.

Here however are the last 10 years results for relegated PL teams:

2006-7: 18 Shef Utd (9th), 19 Charlton (11th), 20 Watford (6th)

2007-8: 18 Reading (4th), 19 Birmingham (2nd), 20 Derby (18th)

2008-9: 18 Newcastle (1st), 19 Boro (11th), 20 West Brom (2nd)

2009-10: 18 Burnley (8th), 19 Hull (11th), 20 Portsmouth (16th)

2010-11: 18 Birmingham (4th), 19 Blackpool (5th), 20 West Ham (3rd)

2011-12: 18 Bolton (7th), 19 Blackburn (17th), 20 Wolves (23rd)

2012-13: 18 Wigan (5th), 19 Reading (7th), 20 QPR (4th)

2013-14: 18 Norwich (3rd), 19 Fulham (17th), 20 Cardiff (11th)

2014-15: 18 Hull (4th), 19 Burnley (1st), 20 QPR (12th)

2015-16: 18 Newcastle (1st), 19 Norwich (8th), 20 Villa (13th) 


Number of relegated teams winning automatic promotion in the following season: 6 out of 30

Number of relegated teams finishing in top 6 in the following season: 16 out of 30

So, the chances of bouncing straight back up automatically over the last 10 years have been 1 in 5.

The odds of finishing in the top 6 have been (more or less) evens.

The average position of a relegated team the following season is between 7th and 8th.

Given that relegated teams with far larger budgets and far stronger playing squads have odds of just 20% of bouncing straight back up that hardly seem overwhelming.

Still if they don't get promoted it must be easier the next year? Nope. Teams that didn't go up in their first season dropped an average of 1.2 places in their second season.

Third year is a charm? After all they've had time to adjust to the championship and splash all that cash you're so worried about. Again no, they have an average league position of 13.4 in their third season. In essence, that means that if you're still kicking around two seasons after getting relegated, chances are you're actually worse than the average Championship team.

In fact relegated clubs are almost as likely to suffer a second relegation as win the league....


PSA: yes a lot was C+P..

Calvin, I really don't have the time or patience to read my post for you, but suffice to say you've wasted a lot of time disproving something I accepted wasn't the case from the start while ignoring my actual argument with a show of arrogance

 

[mao tse tung]

Too much money chasing too few good players pushes up the prices

 

[Pope John XXIII]

the jock - 19/5/2017 14:16

Burnley got promoted first time round having spent 300k in the summer transfer window.

They have an irish centre half kevin Long playing in the premier league only on 2k a week basic. how much would we be paying the likes of Perquis not to even make the bench?

They got promoted because a previous signing from a couple of years back (Ings) recovered from a big injury and tore the League up with Vokes

 

[Pope John XXIII]

MarvinsPA - 19/5/2017 14:47

Pope John XXIII - 19/5/2017 14:41

Calvin Plummer - 19/5/2017 14:32

MarvinsPA - 19/5/2017 14:14

paplane - 19/5/2017 12:01

Sniffer Dog - 19/5/2017 08:11

People I have spoken to today here in Greece more or less all telling me the same thing.
'You'll be in the PL in two years'.
Music to my ears.

Easily said though that isn't it. i think most of these foreign owners think that all they have to do is walk in, throw a few quid at it and Bob's your uncle.

The way the finances work these days every year that goes by it becomes harder for non parachute teams to get out the division.

The championship must be one of the most competitive and demanding leagues in professional football.

Every season people say it's getting harder & harder to compete because of the Parachute payments for relegation, & every season teams like Wigan, Blackburn, QPR, Villa & Norwich come down & struggle because it is such a competitive league.

The finance from parachute payments is only an advantage if used properly, they very rarely are. Finance is largely irrelevant, continuity to a plan of action is what gets you promoted, a quality a goal scorer helps too.

Spot on... parachute payments are to held clubs realign their budgets, all the evidence suggests they're utterly irrelevant to promotion.

You keep arguing that it's not having an effect and I'm sorry, you're wrong.

It's having a massive effect on the division, but you are correct that it doesn't always buy success.

The PP payments are warping the transfer system in this division horribly. Good championship players are nearly out of our price range now. Good Championship reared talent is now starting at £8m-£10m and paying £12m-£15m is becoming fairly common.

That's PP payments.

What clubs have done is become far more effective at buying from lower leagues, developing their own or picking up discarded PL players that can step up in this league.

Thats all fine, but we can't argue that there has been no effect.

Kodjia and Hogan last season cost x3 what they would have done ten years ago

Every footballer costs three times more now than they did 10 years ago, but I was speaking of our chances of promotion, not the transfer system, that's also irrelevant to your chances of promotion.

That's not true.

There is a big polarisation. Far more footballers cost nothing- certainly than in the early 00's.

Name a player who has gone from this division for massive money that hasn't gone to a PL or PP club?

Vydra to Derby is the first one I can think of off the top of my head and after that I'm struggling.

Almost all the big fees that have set new trends have come from PL clubs or clubs with PL money.

Of course the inflation of championship footballers is due to the parachute payments, as well as the PL. But of course the inflation of inter-championship prices is led by the precedents set by PP clubs

 

[LyttleByLyttle]

MarvinsPA - 19/5/2017 16:11

I wonder if anyone grasps the irony of repeatedly using the same copy & paste 'joke'?

+1

 

[radfordinlondon]

paplane - 19/5/2017 12:01

Sniffer Dog - 19/5/2017 08:11

People I have spoken to today here in Greece more or less all telling me the same thing.
'You'll be in the PL in two years'.
Music to my ears.

Easily said though that isn't it. i think most of these foreign owners think that all they have to do is walk in, throw a few quid at it and Bob's your uncle.

The way the finances work these days every year that goes by it becomes harder for non parachute teams to get out the division.

The championship must be one of the most competitive and demanding leagues in professional football.

My take too- however be surprised if we were not competing at the top rather than the bottom of the league in that time. I'd also bet we'll be making more money by then

 

[radfordinlondon]

Pope John XXIII - 19/5/2017 14:14

Sniffer Dog - 19/5/2017 08:11

People I have spoken to today here in Greece more or less all telling me the same thing.
'You'll be in the PL in two years'.
Music to my ears.

Sounds nice.

But with respect, what on earth do people in Greece know about the Championship or gaining promotion to the PL?

U wud b surprised pope- they love their football and watch plenty. Probably better educated than most of us cos they watch the German and Spanish leagues too. Forest still has its own greek supporters club. running national economies and paying tax.are not their strongest features but they know their football.

 

[Pope John XXIII]

radfordinlondon - 19/5/2017 17:04

Pope John XXIII - 19/5/2017 14:14

Sniffer Dog - 19/5/2017 08:11

People I have spoken to today here in Greece more or less all telling me the same thing.
'You'll be in the PL in two years'.
Music to my ears.

Sounds nice.

But with respect, what on earth do people in Greece know about the Championship or gaining promotion to the PL?

U wud b surprised pope- they love their football and watch plenty. Probably better educated than most of us cos they watch the German and Spanish leagues too. Forest still has its own greek supporters club. running national economies and paying tax.are not their strongest features but they know their football.

Sorry, I just doubt the authority of these random generic Greek people in declaring that we'll be promoted in two years.

Aside from the fact the statement is patently bollocks, it assumes a level of knowledge that simply wont exist.

I take a keen interest in world football but know nothing about the second divisions of any leagues aside from who the teams are. Even if I could watch the games, how would I gain real experience of what it takes without following those teams?

I watch conference and league two games when they are on but can't claim I know what it takes to win promotion.

And you need luck to go from staying up on goal difference to promotion in just two years

 

[Sniffer Dog]

Pope, I can obviously only speak for my own Greek mates.
Most of them know the Championship very well.
They love a bet on the football, so it stems from that.
They know the English leagues inside out.
They take their betting very seriously.

 

[Pope John XXIII]

Sniffer Dog - 19/5/2017 17:23

Pope, I can obviously only speak for my own Greek mates.
Most of them know the Championship very well.
They love a bet on the football, so it stems from that.
They know the English leagues inside out.
They take their betting very seriously.

I'll compromise sniffer.

I'll take being in a position to challenge for promotion in two years.

That would be an excellent achievement

 

[Sniffer Dog]

Pope John XXIII - 19/5/2017 17:25

Sniffer Dog - 19/5/2017 17:23

Pope, I can obviously only speak for my own Greek mates.
Most of them know the Championship very well.
They love a bet on the football, so it stems from that.
They know the English leagues inside out.
They take their betting very seriously.

I'll compromise sniffer.

I'll take being in a position to challenge for promotion in two years.

That would be an excellent achievement

That would be magnificent.
By the way, I am only telling you what most of them said.
I am not sure if I agree with it.

 

[Bremen Tree]

Pope John XXIII - 19/5/2017 17:16

radfordinlondon - 19/5/2017 17:04

Pope John XXIII - 19/5/2017 14:14

Sniffer Dog - 19/5/2017 08:11

People I have spoken to today here in Greece more or less all telling me the same thing.
'You'll be in the PL in two years'.
Music to my ears.

Sounds nice.

But with respect, what on earth do people in Greece know about the Championship or gaining promotion to the PL?

U wud b surprised pope- they love their football and watch plenty. Probably better educated than most of us cos they watch the German and Spanish leagues too. Forest still has its own greek supporters club. running national economies and paying tax.are not their strongest features but they know their football.

Sorry, I just doubt the authority of these random generic Greek people in declaring that we'll be promoted in two years.

Aside from the fact the statement is patently bollocks, it assumes a level of knowledge that simply wont exist.

I take a keen interest in world football but know nothing about the second divisions of any leagues aside from who the teams are. Even if I could watch the games, how would I gain real experience of what it takes without following those teams?

I watch conference and league two games when they are on but can't claim I know what it takes to win promotion.

And you need luck to go from staying up on goal difference to promotion in just two years

My gosh you are a miserable so and so.

I seem to remember Brighton only just avoided relegation in 2014/15 and next season they will be in the prem.

 

[radfordinlondon]

Pope John XXIII - 19/5/2017 17:16

radfordinlondon - 19/5/2017 17:04

Pope John XXIII - 19/5/2017 14:14

Sniffer Dog - 19/5/2017 08:11

People I have spoken to today here in Greece more or less all telling me the same thing.
'You'll be in the PL in two years'.
Music to my ears.

Sounds nice.

But with respect, what on earth do people in Greece know about the Championship or gaining promotion to the PL?

U wud b surprised pope- they love their football and watch plenty. Probably better educated than most of us cos they watch the German and Spanish leagues too. Forest still has its own greek supporters club. running national economies and paying tax.are not their strongest features but they know their football.

Sorry, I just doubt the authority of these random generic Greek people in declaring that we'll be promoted in two years.

Aside from the fact the statement is patently bollocks, it assumes a level of knowledge that simply wont exist.

I take a keen interest in world football but know nothing about the second divisions of any leagues aside from who the teams are. Even if I could watch the games, how would I gain real experience of what it takes without following those teams?

I watch conference and league two games when they are on but can't claim I know what it takes to win promotion.

And you need luck to go from staying up on goal difference to promotion in just two years

I think u r misunderstanding the context- it's not a boast or prediction as such imo but people's expectation based on his capability track record.

Look at reading? As someone else posted, beating the teams higher up wasn't the problem. Remember the buzz SP generated here in the beginning MW with a professional show off the pitch can do something similar.

I get ur position- more so after fawas but imo reasons for hope are entirely plausible.

 

[radfordinlondon]

Pope John XXIII - 19/5/2017 17:25

Sniffer Dog - 19/5/2017 17:23

Pope, I can obviously only speak for my own Greek mates.
Most of them know the Championship very well.
They love a bet on the football, so it stems from that.
They know the English leagues inside out.
They take their betting very seriously.

I'll compromise sniffer.

I'll take being in a position to challenge for promotion in two years.

That would be an excellent achievement

missed this but I think this where they are at- more than make us competitive they cannot do, they are not mugs and.know there is no magic solution to gaining promotion.

 

[Calvin Plummer]

MarvinsPA - 19/5/2017 16:11

I wonder if anyone grasps the irony of repeatedly using the same copy & paste 'joke'?

LBL used to be his own man but since Banger returned he's constantly craved his approval. Sad to see but I guess some people are naturally subservient.

 

[Pope John XXIII]

Bremen Tree - 19/5/2017 18:27

Pope John XXIII - 19/5/2017 17:16

radfordinlondon - 19/5/2017 17:04

Pope John XXIII - 19/5/2017 14:14

Sniffer Dog - 19/5/2017 08:11

People I have spoken to today here in Greece more or less all telling me the same thing.
'You'll be in the PL in two years'.
Music to my ears.

Sounds nice.

But with respect, what on earth do people in Greece know about the Championship or gaining promotion to the PL?

U wud b surprised pope- they love their football and watch plenty. Probably better educated than most of us cos they watch the German and Spanish leagues too. Forest still has its own greek supporters club. running national economies and paying tax.are not their strongest features but they know their football.

Sorry, I just doubt the authority of these random generic Greek people in declaring that we'll be promoted in two years.

Aside from the fact the statement is patently bollocks, it assumes a level of knowledge that simply wont exist.

I take a keen interest in world football but know nothing about the second divisions of any leagues aside from who the teams are. Even if I could watch the games, how would I gain real experience of what it takes without following those teams?

I watch conference and league two games when they are on but can't claim I know what it takes to win promotion.

And you need luck to go from staying up on goal difference to promotion in just two years

My gosh you are a miserable so and so.

I seem to remember Brighton only just avoided relegation in 2014/15 and next season they will be in the prem.

Saying that we wont definitely be in the premier league in two years time makes me miserable?

Can I introduce you to planet earth?

Brighton have done exceedingly we'll, although a fair bit of money has gone into it as well. And they have been lucky, as any club that rises so rapidly is; lucky with form of players, the way players click, with injuries etc.

Don't know if you've noticed but this is a hard league. In 16 seasons we haven't gotten within a dozen points of promotion.

You can offer all the Burnley's and Brighton's you like but those are clubs that took their chance while it was there and this division is a graveyard of clubs that didn't. We beat one 3-0 last week