USA chaos | Page 7 | Vital Football

USA chaos

Calvin Plummer said:
Gold does not back fiat currency, whether it did or not 50 years ago is irrelevant.

Which of those fundamental rules of currency am I wrong on?

Agreed on Blockchain which is as I've already said one of the clear advantages over fiat.

I've already acknowledged it is still currently prone to bubble, but volatility doesn't mean you ignore long term trends.

You value it by how the market values it, appreciate that's difficult for a luddite to wrap their head around as there is no balance sheet but otherwise it's a pretty traditional method:

Demand
Scarcity
Cost to Mine
Competition (difficult to know if we are discussing BC or crypto in general)
Ubiquity - the more it's accepted, the more it's worth.

Surely you've bought good before that are valued at more than just their component worth?
Click to expand...

Wow, it's pushing $40,000 now. Still a bull.
 
Calvin Plummer said:
Gold does not back fiat currency, whether it did or not 50 years ago is irrelevant.

Which of those fundamental rules of currency am I wrong on?

Agreed on Blockchain which is as I've already said one of the clear advantages over fiat.

I've already acknowledged it is still currently prone to bubble, but volatility doesn't mean you ignore long term trends.

You value it by how the market values it, appreciate that's difficult for a luddite to wrap their head around as there is no balance sheet but otherwise it's a pretty traditional method:

Demand
Scarcity
Cost to Mine
Competition (difficult to know if we are discussing BC or crypto in general)
Ubiquity - the more it's accepted, the more it's worth.

Surely you've bought good before that are valued at more than just their component worth?
Click to expand...

Well that is certainly educational; it has explained a new definition of Luddite that I was not aware of - Luddite: noun: a person who refuses to blindly follow or get sucked in to crazy schemes

The rest of it is gibberish (You value it by how the market values it ffs), which you confirm with your last paragraph.

There are tried and tested methods for buying assets below their net asset value which work very well; none of them can be applied to Bitcoin

The value of Bitcoin is notional; no one can give a means of calculating its worth, not even the person who invented it; the price is entirely demand driven, that in its self should be the biggest warning of the lot

If Bitcoin crashed tomorrow, or there was a correction in price, where do you calculate the bottom will be?

What would be a good entry point?

If you cannot answer those questions you are just guessing; how would you feel if the people managing your pension were found to be guessing?

There are precedents for the "You value it by how the market values it" approach: one of them was called Tulipmania back in the 17th Century when the cost of Tulip bulbs rose to cost more than a house did.

  • Tulip mania reflects the general cycle of a bubble, from the irrational biases and group mentalities that push prices of an asset to an unsustainable level, to the eventual collapse of those inflated prices.
Like Tulips, Bitcoin will last and find a viable use - in three or four years time you wont be able to buy narcotics unless you are crypto'd up ffs

I just prefer to wait until you mugs have lost your shirts, playing around with something you clearly do not understand, before I venture into it.
 
mao tse tung said:
Well that is certainly educational; it has explained a new definition of Luddite that I was not aware of - Luddite: noun: a person who refuses to blindly follow or get sucked in to crazy schemes

The rest of it is gibberish (You value it by how the market values it ffs), which you confirm with your last paragraph.

There are tried and tested methods for buying assets below their net asset value which work very well; none of them can be applied to Bitcoin

The value of Bitcoin is notional; no one can give a means of calculating its worth, not even the person who invented it; the price is entirely demand driven, that in its self should be the biggest warning of the lot

If Bitcoin crashed tomorrow, or there was a correction in price, where do you calculate the bottom will be?

What would be a good entry point?

If you cannot answer those questions you are just guessing; how would you feel if the people managing your pension were found to be guessing?

There are precedents for the "You value it by how the market values it" approach: one of them was called Tulipmania back in the 17th Century when the cost of Tulip bulbs rose to cost more than a house did.

  • Tulip mania reflects the general cycle of a bubble, from the irrational biases and group mentalities that push prices of an asset to an unsustainable level, to the eventual collapse of those inflated prices.
Like Tulips, Bitcoin will last and find a viable use - in three or four years time you wont be able to buy narcotics unless you are crypto'd up ffs

I just prefer to wait until you mugs have lost your shirts, playing around with something you clearly do not understand, before I venture into it.
Click to expand...

It isn't purely demand driven, but that's hardly different to fiat currency. What value is there to a note beyond the trust we imbue in it? You're still conflating commodity with currency, they have similarities but are also distinct.

I imagine you gave similar speeches about the tech bubble and the value of say Facebook once upon a time.

You may call the rules of currency nonsense but they're long established and widely accepted.
 
Calvin Plummer said:
It isn't purely demand driven, but that's hardly different to fiat currency. What value is there to a note beyond the trust we imbue in it? You're still conflating commodity with currency, they have similarities but are also distinct.

I imagine you gave similar speeches about the tech bubble and the value of say Facebook once upon a time.

You may call the rules of currency nonsense but they're long established and widely accepted.
Click to expand...

Bitcoin isnt a currency, an asset i can just about swallow but its not a currency
 
Strett said:
A He was the chancellor at the time and his position demands respect for the markets and, ergo any predictions he/she makes

B He is clearly very clever, but he's an idiot because...

C It was not a 'pledge' it was a suggestion for what the money the UK sends to the EU, could be spent on. The value was incorrect, but I would wager that anyone who used that as the basis for voting leave ,would have also done so it the correct value would have been used.

Anyway, we've been here before. We have moved onto Crypto, so get with the programme, sister.
Click to expand...
A and B are linked. I agree with you. It is precisely because he was chancellor and also a prominent member of the Remain campaign (well, as prominent as anyone was) that he was an idiot to make such a foolish prediction. For two reasons: it was implausible, and it damaged the campaign rather than helped it. I was being quite specific about that point, since we were discussing it. Hardly a masterclass in economics or politics.

C. It was a very clear case of a political pledge designed to win over voters. There is no other way to view it. So important was it, they wrote it in giant letters on a bus and drove from lands end to John o groats to make sure everybody saw it. They and stood next to the words in giant writing at some of their most important events. Maybe take back control was also just a suggestion rather than a pledge?
I do agree that the public would just as likely been swayed by the true value of our membership contributions to the EU but Dominic Cummings did not agree with you and wanted to press on with the lie they all knew it to be come what may (even in the face of discomfort for some of the team).


Re crypto, the more top dogs tweet about their predictions of the values increasing, the more likely they are to do so. Self fulfilling prophesy. Presumably that's why they do it.
 
Calvin Plummer said:
It isn't purely demand driven, but that's hardly different to fiat currency. What value is there to a note beyond the trust we imbue in it? You're still conflating commodity with currency, they have similarities but are also distinct.

I imagine you gave similar speeches about the tech bubble and the value of say Facebook once upon a time.

You may call the rules of currency nonsense but they're long established and widely accepted.
Click to expand...

I am not conflating anything

Bitcoin is entirely demand driven, mainly by the mugs who think it is easy money.

Once upon a time Tulips were demand driven, mainly by the mugs who thought buying them was easy money.

Fiat currencies are a totally different ball game; all fiat currencies are backed by their respective Governments, prior to 1971 currencies were classed as Representative currencies because the respective Government had to ensure that the money supply was backed by a commodity, usually Gold; Tricky Dicky put an end to that practice because he could not make the books balance after Vietnam.

I was not investing at the time of the tech bubble, but if I had have been I would like to think I would have employed the same techniques as I do now; if that were the case I would not have gone near most of the tech stocks which crashed.

If I had have given a speech to that effect at that time I would have turned out to be correct, because it was exactly that, a bubble; so I'm not entirely sure what your point is there

I invest in Tech stocks now, but they all go through the same rigorous analysis as that of any other stock I invest in.

Getting sucked into the promise of Jam tomorrow is not investing, its casino type gambling, that's why I steer clear of Tesla and Southern Reds favourite stock, the Hydrogen powered Truck Company who have yet to build a truck and have since lost 80% of their value, Nikola.

The best bit of general advice I was given before delving into the murky world of buying equity, was only deal in things you fully understand; and that has turned out so far to be true.

The only trades I have suffered significant losses on was when I stepped out of my comfort zone; something I now steadfastly refuse to do.
 
mao tse tung said:
I am not conflating anything

Bitcoin is entirely demand driven, mainly by the mugs who think it is easy money.

Once upon a time Tulips were demand driven, mainly by the mugs who thought buying them was easy money.

Fiat currencies are a totally different ball game; all fiat currencies are backed by their respective Governments, prior to 1971 currencies were classed as Representative currencies because the respective Government had to ensure that the money supply was backed by a commodity, usually Gold; Tricky Dicky put an end to that practice because he could not make the books balance after Vietnam.

I was not investing at the time of the tech bubble, but if I had have been I would like to think I would have employed the same techniques as I do now; if that were the case I would not have gone near most of the tech stocks which crashed.

If I had have given a speech to that effect at that time I would have turned out to be correct, because it was exactly that, a bubble; so I'm not entirely sure what your point is there

I invest in Tech stocks now, but they all go through the same rigorous analysis as that of any other stock I invest in.

Getting sucked into the promise of Jam tomorrow is not investing, its casino type gambling, that's why I steer clear of Tesla and Southern Reds favourite stock, the Hydrogen powered Truck Company who have yet to build a truck and have since lost 80% of their value, Nikola.

The best bit of general advice I was given before delving into the murky world of buying equity, was only deal in things you fully understand; and that has turned out so far to be true.

The only trades I have suffered significant losses on was when I stepped out of my comfort zone; something I now steadfastly refuse to do.
Click to expand...

It's hit $40k and starting to drop quite sharply. A big issue is the servers and access to the exchanges; there is, I'd wager lots of people unable to sell their stock now because of the poor trading infrastructure . Interesting
 
Strett said:
It's hit $40k and starting to drop quite sharply. A big issue is the servers and access to the exchanges; there is, I'd wager lots of people unable to sell their stock now because of the poor trading infrastructure . Interesting
Click to expand...

What has precipitated todays fall in value?
 
I let Hargreaves Lansdown do mine, I am clueless and don't fancy risking the pot so my SIPP is dealt with by someone who allegedly does know
 
mao tse tung said:
I am not conflating anything

Bitcoin is entirely demand driven, mainly by the mugs who think it is easy money.

Once upon a time Tulips were demand driven, mainly by the mugs who thought buying them was easy money.

Fiat currencies are a totally different ball game; all fiat currencies are backed by their respective Governments, prior to 1971 currencies were classed as Representative currencies because the respective Government had to ensure that the money supply was backed by a commodity, usually Gold; Tricky Dicky put an end to that practice because he could not make the books balance after Vietnam.

I was not investing at the time of the tech bubble, but if I had have been I would like to think I would have employed the same techniques as I do now; if that were the case I would not have gone near most of the tech stocks which crashed.

If I had have given a speech to that effect at that time I would have turned out to be correct, because it was exactly that, a bubble; so I'm not entirely sure what your point is there

I invest in Tech stocks now, but they all go through the same rigorous analysis as that of any other stock I invest in.

Getting sucked into the promise of Jam tomorrow is not investing, its casino type gambling, that's why I steer clear of Tesla and Southern Reds favourite stock, the Hydrogen powered Truck Company who have yet to build a truck and have since lost 80% of their value, Nikola.

The best bit of general advice I was given before delving into the murky world of buying equity, was only deal in things you fully understand; and that has turned out so far to be true.

The only trades I have suffered significant losses on was when I stepped out of my comfort zone; something I now steadfastly refuse to do.
Click to expand...

Nothing wrong with your last paragraph at all, the rest though...

Fiat currencies are subject to the whim of government and performance of the economy. Care to draw a graph of the value of the pound Vs the value of Bitcoin since it's inception?

And yes you are still confusing it with a commodity.
 
Strett said:
It's hit $40k and starting to drop quite sharply. A big issue is the servers and access to the exchanges; there is, I'd wager lots of people unable to sell their stock now because of the poor trading infrastructure . Interesting
Click to expand...


Binance and Coinbase both at it tonight. Soon as those 50k sell orders come in... neither exchange can cope 🤔
 
Calvin Plummer said:
I've listed the rules of currency, which does it not meet, in fact which isn't it superior to fiat in?
Click to expand...

The two big ones are:

Unlike a fiat currency which is backed by a Sovereign Government, a Bitcoin has NO backing.

Liquidity: A grand total of 18.6m Bitcoins have been mined since inception; far fewer than that are in active circulation.

There is a conservative estimation that 20% of all Bitcoins mined have been irretrievably lost in one way or another and that 95% of the ones in circulation (or not in circulation would sum it up better) are held by just 2.9% of all registered addresses.

This has two effects: with there being such a small supply on the market at any one time you end up paying a sizeable premium; if that is not bad enough just wait until it comes to selling.

On January 2nd this year a sale totalling 150 Bitcoin resulted in a 10% drop in the price.

It was noted at the time "If you can destroy the market like that in the space of seven or eight minutes, that shows there is no liquidity and no depth — nobody is there to take the other side of the trade when things start moving. You have these extreme moves because everyone is on the same side."

More than 2000 Bitcoin wallets hold over 1000 coins in them; can you imagine the carnage if just one person attempted to offload their position?

My advice would be to get the fuck out while you still have a shirt on your back; you might think its great craic getting all trendy with the Millennials but they have nothing to lose.

Sell your position and send me the proceeds; I will get you in on the ground floor for the next big thing; you will be well ahead of the curve.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.