Scary times | Page 9 | Vital Football

Scary times

Apparently a lot of the Russians where told it was an exercise or that they would be liberating them so will face no opposition.

they are running out of food and fuel and apparently have started to lay down their arms
 
bristolimp said:
Apparently a lot of the Russians where told it was an exercise or that they would be liberating them so will face no opposition.

they are running out of food and fuel and apparently have started to lay down their arms
Click to expand...

While there are undoubtedly occasions where this is true, thinking this is the beginning of the end for the Russian invasion is (imho) a hugely optimistic interpretation. Take a look at how the Russians dealt with Aleppo.

It's a miracle Kyiv is still not in Russian hands but don't misinterpret this as the Russians will be backing off any time soon. I reckon there is *at least* a couple of weeks more of this before any kind of decision is going to be made in Moscow about whether to proceed any further, and most of that time will be continue to push in the South to join up the corridor in the Black Sea and continue to shell Kharkiv and Kyiv.
 
This is Konotop, supposedly an area where the Russians would be most likely to be treated as liberators.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498952937653125120

The lead negotiator is holding a couple of grenades aloft presumably in an effort to avoid being lynched before he is driven away...

Later down the thread is a video of the mayor of Konotop talking to his residents and explaining their not very good choices..
 
Sincilbanks said:
While there are undoubtedly occasions where this is true, thinking this is the beginning of the end for the Russian invasion is (imho) a hugely optimistic interpretation. Take a look at how the Russians dealt with Aleppo.

It's a miracle Kyiv is still not in Russian hands but don't misinterpret this as the Russians will be backing off any time soon. I reckon there is *at least* a couple of weeks more of this before any kind of decision is going to be made in Moscow about whether to proceed any further, and most of that time will be continue to push in the South to join up the corridor in the Black Sea and continue to shell Kharkiv and Kyiv.
Click to expand...

I think the world is different now - people are fed up with it. It is brilliant how quick and coordinated the actions have been. Putin has got most of the world united - even got the Germans to spend on defence something the American' could never do.

I am not so sure the Russians have that long before they either go bankrupt, Putin goes postal and does something stupid/is deposed or the Russian Army folds.

The Russians don't fight like western armies they don't really care if 50-100k of them die as long as they meet their objectives - in 2022 does the Russian army and its populous at home accept that?

the risk is that as Putin is mental he will not back down and will want to save face - will he get increasingly more desperate a result to more war crimes? Or even nuclear? You would hope the before that someone from his inner circle would stop him
 
Some stories that Putin is ill (medically not mentally) and this part of what has driven him to act now
 
As a warning, responding to a Ukrainian cyclist, who lives in Kyiv, that you hope someone in Putin's inner circle puts a bullet in his head soon, goes against Facebook's community standards and gets you a three-day ban. I should have said something racist, misogynist or homophobic. That's allowed.
 
bristolimp said:
I think the world is different now - people are fed up with it. It is brilliant how quick and coordinated the actions have been. Putin has got most of the world united - even got the Germans to spend on defence something the American' could never do.

I am not so sure the Russians have that long before they either go bankrupt, Putin goes postal and does something stupid/is deposed or the Russian Army folds.

The Russians don't fight like western armies they don't really care if 50-100k of them die as long as they meet their objectives - in 2022 does the Russian army and its populous at home accept that?

the risk is that as Putin is mental he will not back down and will want to save face - will he get increasingly more desperate a result to more war crimes? Or even nuclear? You would hope the before that someone from his inner circle would stop him
Click to expand...
It's a reasonable point imo - the pressure from within. I've already touched upon the old generation of Russians who won't readily forget the austerity, but what of the younger Russians.

It's true in the past that Russia has gone through several chapters of regime change, but it was always one oppressor replaced by another; just different bs. It's only since the fall of the Soviet Union that the 'ordinary man' has experienced some of the trappings of Western culture and opportunity; which they have enjoyed for a while now. Will the youngsters really want to lose most of that and accept the alternative?

Throw in the wonders of modern technology which make it much easier for the citizens to find out what is happening beyond their borders, whilst simultaneously making it very hard for the ideologues to brain wash or control the narrative, and there is the potential for protest to snowball.

I still think this is the best chance in the medium term but it would certainly come at a brutal cost to Russian civilians before a tipping point could be achieved.

However, how ironic it would be if a taste of Western decadence did in fact prove to be the driver for the downfall of Putin.
 
That convoy really does need to attract the right sort of attention...

Right through lots of forest, just asking for the Ukrainians to meander through the trees with some anti-tank launchers. Or grenade launchers. Or Molotovs. Pitch in with some drones, especially to take out the front and rear vehicles in each "packet" (in the manner of Wittman) and that's a huge pile of wrecked equipment and a massive set pack to Putin.

I think that if those satellite pictures have been distributed to the press, the Ukrainians will have lots and lots of pictures and details...
 
Sincilbanks said:
Mariupol steadily getting flattened. Those inside must now be relying herculean reserves of willpower to just continue to resist, how much longer they can do so remains to be seen

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60585603
Click to expand...
Are the likes of the UN even still having the debate about whether Putin is a war criminal. On second thoughts you don't need to answer that, I can guess the answer.
 
Pointed out on another site, that convoy has sat there for a while, possibly with engines running, to keep warm, therefore using more fuel that then has to be brought up by another convoy. Also if they turn engines off batteries start to go flat. They are prob from different units as well so they could get mixed up following the wrong vehicles. As said officers only for maps. Plus they need to be fed and watered, but tales are coming out of this not happening. Captain Snort from Trumpton Fort may do a better job!
 
Barney Imp said:
That convoy really does need to attract the right sort of attention...

Right through lots of forest, just asking for the Ukrainians to meander through the trees with some anti-tank launchers. Or grenade launchers. Or Molotovs. Pitch in with some drones, especially to take out the front and rear vehicles in each "packet" (in the manner of Wittman) and that's a huge pile of wrecked equipment and a massive set pack to Putin.

I think that if those satellite pictures have been distributed to the press, the Ukrainians will have lots and lots of pictures and details...
Click to expand...

Nowhere near as easy as it seems, and while Ukraine seems to be doing a bang up job of denying the Russians complete control of the airspace they don't have anywhere near enough control of the airspace to hit this thing themselves from the air. The drones the Ukranians have carry almost no payload whatsoever (it's maximum is a little over 50kg) and I suspect rather than putting a tiny dent in a massive convoy they would rather hit a much better target of opportunity (since they only have 20 of them)

I mean I guess you could send a bunch of armed militia armed with rifles and molotovs against it relying on local knowledge to get them there via the back roads and forests but it would require almost nothing in the way of heavy automatic weapons in the locale of the attack to kill an awful lot of Ukranians. It's not as though that convoy is going anywhere right now anyway so "slowing it down" doesn't seem like a huge priority?

What's more indicative of anything is that convoy has been there like a sitting duck for at least 2 days and we haven't seen anything like an attack on it, if the Ukranians could inflict significant losses on it by now I'm sure they would have.
 
I see South Africa (amongst others) abstained in the UN vote on I bet Clive is enraged by this.
 
hulloutpost said:
It's a reasonable point imo - the pressure from within. I've already touched upon the old generation of Russians who won't readily forget the austerity, but what of the younger Russians.

It's true in the past that Russia has gone through several chapters of regime change, but it was always one oppressor replaced by another; just different bs. It's only since the fall of the Soviet Union that the 'ordinary man' has experienced some of the trappings of Western culture and opportunity; which they have enjoyed for a while now. Will the youngsters really want to lose most of that and accept the alternative?

Throw in the wonders of modern technology which make it much easier for the citizens to find out what is happening beyond their borders, whilst simultaneously making it very hard for the ideologues to brain wash or control the narrative, and there is the potential for protest to snowball.

I still think this is the best chance in the medium term but it would certainly come at a brutal cost to Russian civilians before a tipping point could be achieved.

However, how ironic it would be if a taste of Western decadence did in fact prove to be the driver for the downfall of Putin.
Click to expand...

indeed and images of 7 year olds being carted off to jail is a very powerful image
 
Sincilbanks said:
Nowhere near as easy as it seems, and while Ukraine seems to be doing a bang up job of denying the Russians complete control of the airspace they don't have anywhere near enough control of the airspace to hit this thing themselves from the air. The drones the Ukranians have carry almost no payload whatsoever (it's maximum is a little over 50kg) and I suspect rather than putting a tiny dent in a massive convoy they would rather hit a much better target of opportunity (since they only have 20 of them)

I mean I guess you could send a bunch of armed militia armed with rifles and molotovs against it relying on local knowledge to get them there via the back roads and forests but it would require almost nothing in the way of heavy automatic weapons in the locale of the attack to kill an awful lot of Ukranians. It's not as though that convoy is going anywhere right now anyway so "slowing it down" doesn't seem like a huge priority?

What's more indicative of anything is that convoy has been there like a sitting duck for at least 2 days and we haven't seen anything like an attack on it, if the Ukranians could inflict significant losses on it by now I'm sure they would have.
Click to expand...

if the convey sits there long enough hopefully it will run out of supplies and morale.

meanwhile in Russia the distance in the table between Putin and the others grows!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.