Scary times

[Red Wimp]

Feels to me like world ‘politics’ has been heading in a dangerous direction for a few years.
I think back to times of Glasnost, fall of the Berlin Wall, end of apartheid, Good Friday agreement etc. when I was younger and I felt quite positive.
Lots of discussion on here about UK & US so looking around the world. Putin looks really dangerous and I think would love to re-establish the Soviet Union and god knows if he tried to re-establish the eastern bloc more widely by force.
China oppressing their own minorities, suppressing democracy in Hong Kong and may be emboldened by Russian activity to attack Taiwan.
Then there are all the other de facto dictatorships around the world like Georgia, Brazil, Iran, Myanmar, Turkey and many more where opposition is suppressed. Not forgetting North Korea of course.
Now there have always been these regimes around but seems more of them and they are more emboldened

 

[NottyImp]

Yep, pretty grim outlook.

One of the reasons I'm not a nationalist - in the sense that some are on here - is that this is where nationalism inevitably and inexorably leads. Just as it did - catastrophically so - for the world in the 1st half of the 20th century.

 

[hulloutpost]

Feels to me like world ‘politics’ has been heading in a dangerous direction for a few years.
I think back to times of Glasnost, fall of the Berlin Wall, end of apartheid, Good Friday agreement etc. when I was younger and I felt quite positive.
Lots of discussion on here about UK & US so looking around the world. Putin looks really dangerous and I think would love to re-establish the Soviet Union and god knows if he tried to re-establish the eastern bloc more widely by force.
China oppressing their own minorities, suppressing democracy in Hong Kong and may be emboldened by Russian activity to attack Taiwan.
Then there are all the other de facto dictatorships around the world like Georgia, Brazil, Iran, Myanmar, Turkey and many more where opposition is suppressed. Not forgetting North Korea of course.
Now there have always been these regimes around but seems more of them and they are more emboldened

Putin probably looks around the Western 'leaders' and sees the weakest, incompetent, most disjointed bunch he's likely to encounter. He may decide this is the optimum period in which to rattle the cage.

Biden is/was on the Chinese pay roll and Afghanistan was a good marker for his level of incompetence. He and and Johnson have developed into world class jokes that have plenty on domestically as well. Likewise Trudeau has more than a few home distractions.

Merkel has gone and left a gulf in international experience with her departure, and Macron is a petulant, narcissistic, Franco absorbed irrelevance who has his own upcoming elections to contend with.

China and Russia must be pinching themselves at the rabble they are facing.

 

[plumbob]

When Trump was in the mix with Putin and the North Korean lunatic, I thought it was a potential powder keg for conflict.
Putin doing his best to provoke though.
Johnson is a fucking idiot, but not in the same league as those 3!

 

[stokeimp]

I suppose we are among the luckiest generations in history in that we have not been conscripted to fight a war - my grandfather lost an eye in WW1 and my dad and uncles were abroad, respectively in the RAF, Army and Navy, the latter on the Arctic Convoys (which he never spoke about) - as I'm sure will be the case with many on here

In 1962 we lived through probably the most critical time in world anthropogenic history during the Cuban Missile Crisis. If that had kicked off, living in uphill Lincoln we would have been among the first to be killed by nuclear weapons, as Russia targeted RAF Scampton (then home of the UKs nuclear strike force), as the world would have been gradually annihilated (at best the Mad Max scenario)

Putin hasn't got the economic power of the old USSR, even though I believe he would like it. The Ukraine situation is certainly scary, and I wouldn't like to predict what will happen - basically because Putin knows he could walk in and the West would not respond militarily. But I believe although economically (relatively) weak, he gets his power and influence as the world's mischief maker, and we will have to keep dealing with his antics (Salisbury, cyber attacks etc).

In the mid 1960s, during a camping tour of Europe, I remember a conversation with some Brits and US servicemen based in Germany, and they all took the view that China was a more serious threat than Russia. China is too big to "take on" militarily, but has grown economically, and in their region of the world it will be difficult to prevent "rogue" activity. I do blame the US for getting so close to them, and also George Osborne, for encouraging their investment here. But are we likely to go to war with them? - no, tho' may get in an economic battle if we want to throw token gestures at our disapproval

Although I would prefer not to need Russian gas, Chinese investment etc, there has to be a positive side to globalisation of trade, where we are all interdependent - not necessarily equally I hasten to add. We saw how post WW2, the Common Market and growth of the EU helped to ensure peace in Europe. Such interdependency around the world has to be good, and is giving the West some leverage over Russia at the present time. As an ex colonial power we have probably lost our moral authority to tell others how to behave - as we have as Europeans, with our record of killing each other over the centuries. But are these scary times. Yes, for many parts of the world. Are they as scary as we have experienced in our lifetimes, or those of our parents? I would suggest not

Bloody hell, didn't expect to ramble on like that!!

 

[hulloutpost]

I suppose we are among the luckiest generations in history in that we have not been conscripted to fight a war - my grandfather lost an eye in WW1 and my dad and uncles were abroad, respectively in the RAF, Army and Navy, the latter on the Arctic Convoys (which he never spoke about) - as I'm sure will be the case with many on here

In 1962 we lived through probably the most critical time in world anthropogenic history during the Cuban Missile Crisis. If that had kicked off, living in uphill Lincoln we would have been among the first to be killed by nuclear weapons, as Russia targeted RAF Scampton (then home of the UKs nuclear strike force), as the world would have been gradually annihilated (at best the Mad Max scenario)

Putin hasn't got the economic power of the old USSR, even though I believe he would like it. The Ukraine situation is certainly scary, and I wouldn't like to predict what will happen - basically because Putin knows he could walk in and the West would not respond militarily. But I believe although economically (relatively) weak, he gets his power and influence as the world's mischief maker, and we will have to keep dealing with his antics (Salisbury, cyber attacks etc).

In the mid 1960s, during a camping tour of Europe, I remember a conversation with some Brits and US servicemen based in Germany, and they all took the view that China was a more serious threat than Russia. China is too big to "take on" militarily, but has grown economically, and in their region of the world it will be difficult to prevent "rogue" activity. I do blame the US for getting so close to them, and also George Osborne, for encouraging their investment here. But are we likely to go to war with them? - no, tho' may get in an economic battle if we want to throw token gestures at our disapproval

Although I would prefer not to need Russian gas, Chinese investment etc, there has to be a positive side to globalisation of trade, where we are all interdependent - not necessarily equally I hasten to add. We saw how post WW2, the Common Market and growth of the EU helped to ensure peace in Europe. Such interdependency around the world has to be good, and is giving the West some leverage over Russia at the present time. As an ex colonial power we have probably lost our moral authority to tell others how to behave - as we have as Europeans, with our record of killing each other over the centuries. But are these scary times. Yes, for many parts of the world. Are they as scary as we have experienced in our lifetimes, or those of our parents? I would suggest not

Bloody hell, didn't expect to ramble on like that!!

You make some logical and reasonable points imo. I too believe that Putin is going to play the Chutzpah card for all it's worth - more for his own ego and Russian legacy (rather than kick start anything major); for the reasons about Western weakness I've already alluded to.

The only problem is that whilst not catastrophic, the West in it's current state will probably let him take the mile rather than the inch.

 

[stokeimp]

You make some logical and reasonable points imo. I too believe that Putin is going to play the Chutzpah card for all it's worth - more for his own ego and Russian legacy (rather than kick start anything major); for the reasons about Western weakness I've already alluded to.

The only problem is that whilst not catastrophic, the West in it's current state will probably let him take the mile rather than the inch.

Agreed, and if they do invade (and inevitably) take over Ukraine (ie the mile) , an unfortunate consequence will need to be that more NATO forces are deployed to the old communist bloc states

 

[hulloutpost]

When Trump was in the mix with Putin and the North Korean lunatic, I thought it was a potential powder keg for conflict.
Putin doing his best to provoke though.
Johnson is a fucking idiot, but not in the same league as those 3!

You're probably aware that (for all his faults) Trump was the first President in an eon to not start a new conflict, initiated the withdrawal ground work from Afghanistan and contributed to the most peaceful period of US (world) stability and relations in my lifetime.

His mantra may have been MAGA but it was aimed at rebuilding the US internally/economically rather than waiving the stars and stripes abroad.

You may have missed that he was not in any way in collaboration with or influenced by the Russians (now proven fact) and those lies were simply a highly successful Democrat/media election smear that served it's purpose well at the time.

Trump can be criticized on several levels but a weak politician to be walked over by China/Russia and a war monger, imo are not amongst his failings.

 

[cheshireimp]

Keep calm and enjoy your short time on the planet. . Nothing to worry about.

 

[impede]

You will note that Truss keeps talking up the prospect of conflict. Probably thinks it will do for her what the Falklands did for Thatcher but then again, she is as thick as mince.

 

[bristolimp]

You will note that Truss keeps talking up the prospect of conflict. Probably thinks it will do for her what the Falklands did for Thatcher but then again, she is as thick as mince.

she is positioning her self to take over here. So she goes globe trotting as her advert. She is a incompetent as the rest of them.

 

[bristolimp]

Putin probably looks around the Western 'leaders' and sees the weakest, incompetent, most disjointed bunch he's likely to encounter. He may decide this is the optimum period in which to rattle the cage.

Biden is/was on the Chinese pay roll and Afghanistan was a good marker for his level of incompetence. He and and Johnson have developed into world class jokes that have plenty on domestically as well. Likewise Trudeau has more than a few home distractions.

Merkel has gone and left a gulf in international experience with her departure, and Macron is a petulant, narcissistic, Franco absorbed irrelevance who has his own upcoming elections to contend with.

China and Russia must be pinching themselves at the rabble they are facing.

I wouldn’t write off Macron he may be those things (you have described many a Frenchman there!), but he is far more competent then any of our lot. Also they way they administer is probably aligned to your view then us more left leaning people on here. I reckon if you were French or if he we’re a Tory PM you would be a very big fan.

 

[bristolimp]

I guess today is the day we will know what is going on.

I am sure he will do something

however I don’t think this is anything to do with reforming the Soviet Union this is all about power and position in his mother Russia. I think if they do invade it will be another Afghanistan for them as the Ukrainians will go gorilla even the 87 year lady with the rifle.

it will be messy but I don’t think the bloodshed will directly affect us In a millitary sense but what will happen is probably a mini market crash further inflation as oil and gas will go further up and the rotten government here will make some big words but will be poor to act as the funny Russian money is what makes their world move.

 

[hulloutpost]

I wouldn’t write off Macron he may be those things (you have described many a Frenchman there!), but he is far more competent then any of our lot. Also they way they administer is probably aligned to your view then us more left leaning people on here. I reckon if you were French or if he we’re a Tory PM you would be a very big fan.

Absolutely, the French are for the French and it is one of their admirable features (from a French perspective) - something I really wish we would learn from.

However on the world stage Macron does plenty of preening but is very quick to hide behind somebody else's coat tails when it comes to matters of conflict rather than economy.

 

[hulloutpost]

I guess today is the day we will know what is going on.

I am sure he will do something

however I don’t think this is anything to do with reforming the Soviet Union this is all about power and position in his mother Russia. I think if they do invade it will be another Afghanistan for them as the Ukrainians will go gorilla even the 87 year lady with the rifle.

it will be messy but I don’t think the bloodshed will directly affect us In a millitary sense but what will happen is probably a mini market crash further inflation as oil and gas will go further up and the rotten government here will make some big words but will be poor to act as the funny Russian money is what makes their world move.

Just a couple of things. On a humorous note your imagery of an 87 year old woman wandering around in a gorilla outfit toting a carbine did make me chuckle.

Out of my own self respect, I ought to clarify from your other post that not being a Tory I wouldn't approve of the right honourable Mr. Macron MP for Haltemprice.

 

[bristolimp]

Just a couple of things. On a humorous note your imagery of an 87 year old woman wandering around in a gorilla outfit toting a carbine did make me chuckle.

Out of my own self respect, I ought to clarify from your other post that not being a Tory I wouldn't approve of the right honourable Mr. Macron MP for Haltemprice.

i apologise I assumed you were from your posts

 

[hulloutpost]

i apologise I assumed you were from your posts

No problem, some people on here have 'accused' me of being a Tory in the past which is where you may have picked it up from.

It amuses me as ironically my written opposition to their public service austerity measures a few years ago lead to them trying to get me sacked when they complained to my employers (they got told where to go); so no I'm not a Tory

In further irony I was actually considered a bit of a 'red' by my colleagues who were constantly asking me to stand as a union rep. as I was the one that used to challenge and cause problems with management when they tried to by pass agreed working conditions. I always refused on the basis that the 'union' were too cosy with management and it was a more effective strategy to agitate from the outside, which proved to be effective as I wouldn't let matters drop with union or employers until issues were successfully resolved as per the 'rules'. For the record I'm no 'red' either, I can assure you of that.

Now that the EU situation has been resolved I'm currently 'between parties', although to be candid looking at the motley crews on offer I may remain that way for the foreseeable.

 

[EastvilleIMP]

No problem, some people on here have 'accused' me of being a Tory in the past which is where you may have picked it up from.

It amuses me as ironically my written opposition to their public service austerity measures a few years ago lead to them trying to get me sacked when they complained to my employers (they got told where to go); so no I'm not a Tory

In further irony I was actually considered a bit of a 'red' by my colleagues who were constantly asking me to stand as a union rep. as I was the one that used to challenge and cause problems with management when they tried to by pass agreed working conditions. I always refused on the basis that the 'union' were too cosy with management and it was a more effective strategy to agitate from the outside, which proved to be effective as I wouldn't let matters drop with union or employers until issues were successfully resolved as per the 'rules'. For the record I'm no 'red' either, I can assure you of that.

Now that the EU situation has been resolved I'm currently 'between parties', although to be candid looking at the motley crews on offer I may remain that way for the foreseeable.

But @NottyImp says you are a Tory, so it must be true…

 

[simes69]

Absolutely, the French are for the French and it is one of their admirable features (from a French perspective) - something I really wish we would learn from.

However on the world stage Macron does plenty of preening but is very quick to hide behind somebody else's coat tails when it comes to matters of conflict rather than economy.

Agreed. I think the big problems is that no Western leader is particularly comfortable on the world stage, or particularly wants to be on it. China and Russia can see that and will play it for all they're worth. Merkel was the last of the 'old guard' in that sense and Macron seems to be the only one who realises what is going on, he's just not great at it. The Brits, Truss in particular, are all fur coat no knickers (not a pleasant thought in its literal sense!).

Like it or not the West needs to have politicians, states-people and diplomats who want to and are able to function on the world stage and fight for the international order, else the West will be pushed around, exploited, in some areas taken over (whether physically or by 'soft' belt-and-road type means) for the next several decades. They will also suffer from unintended consequences like migrant crises, which are likely to increase (the Belarussian episode was a particularly scary and frankly evil example of a manufactured one).

The instincts of Western politicians in the last decade to retreat into their own countries and comfort zones, whilst understandable and even admirable in many ways, is going to lead to big problems down the line - geo-political ones, climate-related ones, military and humanitarian ones. It's a significant reason I was a 'remainer' and also why I deplored Trump's sledgehammer antics on the world stage.

 

[MaineRoad_96]

Agreed. I think the big problems is that no Western leader is particularly comfortable on the world stage, or particularly wants to be on it. China and Russia can see that and will play it for all they're worth. Merkel was the last of the 'old guard' in that sense and Macron seems to be the only one who realises what is going on, he's just not great at it. The Brits, Truss in particular, are all fur coat no knickers (not a pleasant thought in its literal sense!).

Like it or not the West needs to have politicians, states-people and diplomats who want to and are able to function on the world stage and fight for the international order, else the West will be pushed around, exploited, in some areas taken over (whether physically or by 'soft' belt-and-road type means) for the next several decades. They will also suffer from unintended consequences like migrant crises, which are likely to increase (the Belarussian episode was a particularly scary and frankly evil example of a manufactured one).

The instincts of Western politicians in the last decade to retreat into their own countries and comfort zones, whilst understandable and even admirable in many ways, is going to lead to big problems down the line - geo-political ones, climate-related ones, military and humanitarian ones. It's a significant reason I was a 'remainer' and also why I deplored Trump's sledgehammer antics on the world stage.

Very well put. Europe, NATO, the West, are as ever reliant on America, who’ve had a mad President followed by a fairly useless one. And that’s been reflected in what seems to be quite terrifying internal battles for what America should look like in the 21st Century. Seems to me that China and Russia are exploiting that vacuum in, as you’ve said, leadership and statesmanship.

As for the UK it’s quite laughable seeing non-entities like Truss and Johnson pretend that this country has any kind of relevance on the world stage any more. Talk about Emperors with no clothes.