Post Brexit (n/g)

[jokerman]

I never got the impression that Trump was anti NATO.
I think his gripe was that the USA was picking up the bill while nearly every European country wasn’t fulfilling their military obligations.
Russias invasion of their neighbour has certainly woke Europe up.

Not sure he's pro or anti-anything much. He and other Trumpers will chase the mood of their constituency and try to get ahead of it. Every US politician gripes about burden-sharing and European free-riding, as they present it, but he called the existence of NATO into question, although he backed off when pushed. China and Iran are his things. China is becoming everybody's thing over here.

 

[shotshy]

Not sure he's pro or anti-anything much. He and other Trumpers will chase the mood of their constituency and try to get ahead of it. Every US politician gripes about burden-sharing and European free-riding, as they present it, but he called the existence of NATO into question, although he backed off when pushed. China and Iran are his things. China is becoming everybody's thing over here.

As did Macron quite recently Jokerman.
I was quite surprised by that, then Ukraine happened which probably made him think again.

 

[jogills]

For now, but Europe/NATO cannot count on the US and ought not to. The US has its own issues at the moment, and if a Trumper or a liberal Democrat replaces Biden, the US commitment to both NATO and Ukraine will likely soften. The European great powers simply have to do more on defense, otherwise they will be like the Eloi feasted on by the Morlocks.

Agreed. The old man in me, not the cynic, would say that Europe still doesn't believe the US would ever desert them and so aren't focusing yet. The more serious actors need to give up on trying to drag the Putin apologists and the basket cases with them. That's a recipe for sometime never. Winter fuel shennanigans may concentrate minds.

 

[MedwayModernist]

I’m amazed that the Independent printed that.
The Independent ?
Wow !

I studied under Patrick Minford (the author of that piece), and the guy is a economic fantasist. He worked under Thatcher during the bad times, and he's the only "respected" economist who thinks Liz Truss' economic plans make sense.

He's living in a world of 1970s era economics that's long since been disproved.

 

[shotshy]

I studied under Patrick Minford (the author of that piece), and the guy is a economic fantasist. He worked under Thatcher during the bad times, and he's the only "respected" economist who thinks Liz Truss' economic plans make sense.

He's living in a world of 1970s era economics that's long since been disproved.

All economists work on a best guess principle and are very rarely correct, even in the short term.
I was reading an article about Germany recently and one economist said that they are going into a serious recession and the other said they will scrape through.
One of them may be correct.

 

[Whitstabletangerine]

China is becoming everybody's thing over here.

Supposing Taiwan was invaded by China or should I say attacked in some other way, what is the feeling in the US at present, what action if any would the US take against China, would it be sanctions or military action.?

 

[MedwayModernist]

All economists work on a best guess principle and are very rarely correct, even in the short term.
I was reading an article about Germany recently and one economist said that they are going into a serious recession and the other said they will scrape through.
One of them may be correct.

Not quite mate - they wouldn't have a Nobel prize for it if that was the case.

Minford follows quite an outdated form of economics, he's a proper old school classical economist who essentially believes in things like the invisible hand, ignoring reality the of contracts, unions, immobility of labour, lack of perfect knowledge etc etc

He said that wanted the UK leaving the EU would be a success because we could get back to focussing on our comparative advantages, and cease working on those which we don't, which included farming!

 

[GillsBluenose]

Not quite mate - they wouldn't have a Nobel prize for it if that was the case.
Minford follows quite an outdated form of economics, he's a proper old school classical economist who essentially believes in things like the invisible hand, ignoring reality the of contracts, unions, immobility of labour, lack of perfect knowledge etc etc

He said that wanted the UK leaving the EU would be a success because we could get back to focussing on our comparative advantages, and cease working on those which we don't, which included farming!

Strange how someone can demand respect for a profession at the start of one post and then try to totally discredit someone given national press recognition from the same profession at the end.

Skill of the bitter and twisted, I suppose.

 

[Therealwaldo]

Doesn't matter whether you regard a pundit as right or left wing. When facts and statistics are quoted, you can only challenge them by proving they are wrong. I can not say that I have even heard anyone claim, let alone prove, that Andrew Neil is a consistent liar.

Nobody is suggesting that the EU will completely collapse any more than the UK will, so your imagined wager is pretty inane.

Meanwhile, Waldo claims "the costs of leaving means that every family in the country is, on average, £8,000 worse off and counting than if we’d remained in the EU". I can't remember the EU sending me or my family £8,000 in any year that we were a member so he can perhaps "settle up" with me for that patent untruth. We supposedly have the lowest growth in the G7 this year when it was previously reported last year that we had the highest growth in the G7 so "projected" growth figures are just that.

As you clearly haven’t got the foggiest clue about economics I’ll have to enlighten you. Firstly you seem to have fallen for Johnson’s lie about the UK growth performance that picked out one anomalous quarter when our growth was better because of the end of lockdown. However, the overall figures shows the slowest growth rate in the G8 with the OECD predicting recession. Overall economic growth translates into wage growth and spending power. The lower the growth rate, the lower the spending power of individual famillies. Compared to other EU countries our lower growth rate means that loss equates to the £8,000. The only thing I’m not sure on is whether that figure includes for the loss of income attributable to the loss of value of sterling that happened following Brexit. If it doesn’t that £8,000 is an underestimate. I’m sorry if you thought I meant that the EU sent you a cheque but I didn’t think you were that silly.

 

[Therealwaldo]

Strange how someone can demand respect for a profession at the start of one post and then try to totally discredit someone given national press recognition from the same profession at the end.

Skill of the bitter and twisted, I suppose.

Minford is the lead economist of the Liverpool Economics group. There is a league table of organisations that provide economic forecasts. Minford and the Liverpool Group have consistently come bottom of that league table in terms of the accuracy of their forecasting. No one is querying Minford’s credentials. It’s just that, as an economist, he really isn’t very good. It’s like saying, “I don’t doubt this doctor’s qualifications, it’s just that more of his patients die than those of other doctors”. See the difference ?

 

[shotshy]

People tend to believe the ‘facts’ that correspond with their beliefs.
Fortunately for economists, the facts are only clear after the event which by then, their forecasts have been forgotten.
They are rarely correct and sometimes miles out.
As they will tell you, it’s not an exact science but more of a prediction.
Sometimes they just state the obvious and you don’t have to be an economist for that.

 

[GillsBluenose]

As you clearly haven’t got the foggiest clue about economics I’ll have to enlighten you. Firstly you seem to have fallen for Johnson’s lie about the UK growth performance that picked out one anomalous quarter when our growth was better because of the end of lockdown. However, the overall figures shows the slowest growth rate in the G8 with the OECD predicting recession. Overall economic growth translates into wage growth and spending power. The lower the growth rate, the lower the spending power of individual famillies. Compared to other EU countries our lower growth rate means that loss equates to the £8,000. The only thing I’m not sure on is whether that figure includes for the loss of income attributable to the loss of value of sterling that happened following Brexit. If it doesn’t that £8,000 is an underestimate. I’m sorry if you thought I meant that the EU sent you a cheque but I didn’t think you were that silly.

You are obviously too thick and blinkered to recognise something as intellectual as sarcasm but in my world £8000 represents a sum of money that would drastically change a standard of living. You can not hide a sum like that. This at a time when you see an endless stream of performance cars on the road with this year's plates and house prices mostly trebling in the past 15 years. How do you square that circle, bud?

 

[GillsBluenose]

Minford is the lead economist of the Liverpool Economics group. There is a league table of organisations that provide economic forecasts. Minford and the Liverpool Group have consistently come bottom of that league table in terms of the accuracy of their forecasting. No one is querying Minford’s credentials. It’s just that, as an economist, he really isn’t very good. It’s like saying, “I don’t doubt this doctor’s qualifications, it’s just that more of his patients die than those of other doctors”. See the difference ?

But those doctors would not be listened to and would certainly not have papers consistently published in their national publication, the Lancet, let alone a newspaper that holds opposite editorial views. N'est-ce pas?

I don't claim to have an Economics degree but when I studied it as a module in the 80s, there was an endless debate about Keynes v Friedman. As far as I remember, they were both venerated, and still are, despite having almost opposite views.

 

[PhilK66]

People tend to believe the ‘facts’ that correspond with their beliefs.
Fortunately for economists, the facts are only clear after the event which by then, their forecasts have been forgotten.
They are rarely correct and sometimes miles out.
As they will tell you, it’s not an exact science but more of a prediction.
Sometimes they just state the obvious and you don’t have to be an economist for that.

As the saying goes " show me three economists and I'll show you four opinions".

 

[RotherhitheGill]

Rising house prices is a disaster for our economy. Why people celebrate it is quite beyond me

 

[MedwayModernist]

But those doctors would not be listened to and would certainly not have papers consistently published in their national publication, the Lancet, let alone a newspaper that holds opposite editorial views. N'est-ce pas?

I don't claim to have an Economics degree but when I studied it as a module in the 80s, there was an endless debate about Keynes v Friedman. As far as I remember, they were both venerated, and still are, despite having almost opposite views.

To put it in scientific terms, Minford would be that scientist that thinks climate change isn't happening.

Basically all economists disagree with him.

As for the £8,000 thing - it's obviously abstract, but think of it this way. If we'd stayed in the EU, inflation would be lower, and growth would have been higher (which usually correlates to income increasing), so it's reasonable to assume that a household, would be net £8k better off had we stayed in - that's how they work it out.

 

[Therealwaldo]

You are obviously too thick and blinkered to recognise something as intellectual as sarcasm but in my world £8000 represents a sum of money that would drastically change a standard of living. You can not hide a sum like that. This at a time when you see an endless stream of performance cars on the road with this year's plates and house prices mostly trebling in the past 15 years. How do you square that circle, bud?

Sorry, I thought there was a cost of living crisis. I must have been mistaken.

 

[GillsBluenose]

Sorry, I thought there was a cost of living crisis. I must have been mistaken.

No, it was me that was mistaken. Germans are getting plentiful gas from a reliable friend and the Eurozone is completely free of cost of living issues, having not increased borrowing and been totally unaffected by Covid. I forgot. Mea Culpa

 

[GillsBluenose]

To put it in scientific terms, Minford would be that scientist that thinks climate change isn't happening.
Basically all economists disagree with him.
As for the £8,000 thing - it's obviously abstract, but think of it this way. If we'd stayed in the EU, inflation would be lower, and growth would have been higher (which usually correlates to income increasing), so it's reasonable to assume that a household, would be net £8k better off had we stayed in - that's how they work it out.

As Shotty indicated that's why they call them shoulda woulda coulda professions. Minford is a fossil despite studying economic trends for decades as he does not have the advantage of modern economists' (and his former students', apparently) crystal balls. Yeh, right.

"Assume" is a well chosen word as well, as you know what that makes out of u and me.

 

[Jerryattrick]

I believe it to be true that not one single economist has been consistently correct throughout history. yet they arrogantly teach economics as if its a science.
Anyone challenge that lol?

The only person who has scientifically and actually correctly predicted every upturn and downturn in the last 40 years is martin armstrong. Accurate to the day in some instances.

if you want to learn more then watch 'the forecaster' (on prime video and youtube) if you dare. Warning - may change your thinking.

Goes into detail on the actual economic background that gave us yeltsin and putin plus much more.