SpursEagle
Vital Squad Member
Came across this during my sceptical travels, its a bit long but you can always watch it at 1.25 speed
Make of it what you will.
Make of it what you will.
paddyspur
Vital Reserves Team
here's the Sky News version, it was the aunt that diagnosed it as COVID19 and that there were no underlying issues. well, apart from the heart issue that killed her.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...ions-dies-after-contracting-covid-19-11963451
am sad for the young lady, but at a systemic level, this is exactly the kind of hysteria we are drinking down like it was a half-time Levy pint and the match is restarting in 2 mins.
day after day, a bottomless supply of evidence-less scare headlines from the media, government (who don't want to be caught out) and "eminent scientists" (well, Ferguson, Imperial, Hopkins, and Gates jumping in there too) who don't want their funding stopped or cocktail party invites withdrawn or eminent tag sullied.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...ions-dies-after-contracting-covid-19-11963451
am sad for the young lady, but at a systemic level, this is exactly the kind of hysteria we are drinking down like it was a half-time Levy pint and the match is restarting in 2 mins.
day after day, a bottomless supply of evidence-less scare headlines from the media, government (who don't want to be caught out) and "eminent scientists" (well, Ferguson, Imperial, Hopkins, and Gates jumping in there too) who don't want their funding stopped or cocktail party invites withdrawn or eminent tag sullied.
I would like to know why every media outlet has to lead with the amount of deaths every day . I know it’s awful . and for those family members it is dreadful, and my heart goes out to them .
But why does their loss have to be the headline .
Why isn’t the headline shouting out how many people have been successfully treated and released by those incredible doctors , nurses and affiliated workers in the hospitals.
Why aren’t they praising all the folk that are staying indoors and isolating . Yet one person walks down a coastal path , miles away from anybody and they have drones flying over them and the footage posted on every news bulletin and newspaper.
Why aren’t they headlining the amazing scientists working their socks off trying to find an antidote .
Sure they all get mentioned at some time , somewhere . I just don’t get the fixation on how many have died .
We know how bad it can be , we know to try and avoid it .
Why do I have to know the total numbers every day from every country .
Let’s praise the NHS as a headline rather than standing in the street for ten minutes applauding them .
But why does their loss have to be the headline .
Why isn’t the headline shouting out how many people have been successfully treated and released by those incredible doctors , nurses and affiliated workers in the hospitals.
Why aren’t they praising all the folk that are staying indoors and isolating . Yet one person walks down a coastal path , miles away from anybody and they have drones flying over them and the footage posted on every news bulletin and newspaper.
Why aren’t they headlining the amazing scientists working their socks off trying to find an antidote .
Sure they all get mentioned at some time , somewhere . I just don’t get the fixation on how many have died .
We know how bad it can be , we know to try and avoid it .
Why do I have to know the total numbers every day from every country .
Let’s praise the NHS as a headline rather than standing in the street for ten minutes applauding them .
Spursex
Alert Team
My daughter knew this Girl - as she didn't live a million miles away.
It was her Mum and Aunt that first announced on Facebook that she died from the coronavirus (I'll try and find her facebook link again), by all accounts that was the death cert, but the coroner made them and the press retract it, pending an autopsy.
MY daughter suggested that her heavy smoking might have played a role, as differing reports now say she died from a heart attack but had the virus..
So it looks like everyone jumped the gun.
Last edited:
Big Chiv
Vital Football Legend
If ( as is beginning to look more and more likely ) we are being deliberately mislead by the Govt and the MSM as to the real 'threat ' this virus poses, how long can they continue to get away with it , and what was the purpose of it to begin with ?
As Paddy highlighted in his post , dying with the virus is vastly different than dying of it .,
Big Chiv
Vital Football Legend
And that's the million dollar question, why are they deliberately misleading us ?
freundorfoe
Vital 1st Team Regular
just because some of the deaths are being mis-labelled surely what's more important is the fact the graph is growing exponentially. There's only so long you can explain it away as the numbers go up in the way they are.
Fact is even if you have underlying health issues this virus is taking people before their time. As much as you can correctly argue that heart disease or cancer is the primary cause of someone's death, plenty of people with heart disease or cancer can live long lives - how can you be sure corona isn't the reason their situation worsened to the point of them losing their life?
Fact is even if you have underlying health issues this virus is taking people before their time. As much as you can correctly argue that heart disease or cancer is the primary cause of someone's death, plenty of people with heart disease or cancer can live long lives - how can you be sure corona isn't the reason their situation worsened to the point of them losing their life?
Nick Real Deal
Vital Football Legend
Youngsters are losing their lives with no underlying issues. 13 year old, 19 etc. True older people with health issues are predominant but it seems there is a trigger or a tipping of the balance to how the body reacts. They will find the answer, treatment and vaccine, we just have to sit it out.
paddyspur
Vital Reserves Team
for me that is where it gets murky Chiv, and highlights more difficult waters to navigate. one of the things that's been really evident to me is the clashing of people's (us) world views, and how unaware we are (me included) that our world view mostly PRE-determines how we'll see any situation - before we know anything about it!
a crass example - i'm a spurs fan, i hear an arsenal player has missed his flight from somewhere, i'm pleased, pre-determinedly. a client who is an arsenal season ticket holder is embarrassed and frustrated by it, obviously. Dems and Republicans here, they talk by rote, utterly predictable what they say and how they'll see anything a certain way. modern, postmodern, traditional and integrative world views - are all definable and pre-packaged.
here's an email i literally just got, an elderly but still working professionally Democrat lady here in Ventura - she says "I am one who believes they are underestimating the situation. I heard that over 1.2 million cell phones in China are silent and that one funeral home got 5000 urns in two days. Also that the smog is increasing and when tested appears to be cremations. And the Northeastern US situation is just the tip of the iceberg - given that when the hospital ship showed up in New York harbor the shoreline was crammed with people like sardines."
except people weren't packed like sardines, but her world view (Dem, wash your hands, STAY INDOORS PEEPS!!) would need them to be packed like a well-drilled Norwich defense. she's globally respected professionally, an expert author, yet her email reads like a Bart Simpson essay.
another friend is one of two who used to write for the Evening Standard for many years (kind of irreverent off-pat column), he also made the Diana film showing how 'MI5 did it', and who. it's been taken down from YouTube a few times. he's up the world view end of, well, pretty much everything is a conspiracy, from 9/11 to Iraq oil to the virus being hand-sown in China (and Iran, hence their difficulties in handling it) and that it all serves the agenda of the 1%/elite/illuminati (call them what you want) which includes the Davros crowd, Gates, Clintons, wannabes like Blair, and so on. i don't subscribe to that as a world view or on evidence, then again, how would i know, i just go about my life.
that said, when the Vietnam war broke out in 1964, who knew at the time that the Gulf of Tonkin incident was a false flag operation by the US, rather than those pesky commie North Vietnamese were starting a war with the US (as we believed!)? very few knew, and hardly anyone would have believed the world could be like that, naive as we were. what, fix the Top Ten? You mean Mungo Jerry got to No. 1 in 1970 by means other than having the most genuine sales?!?! Spare me.
a poster boy for these murkier theories is David Icke (who of course has a discreditable past, an easy one for traditional or modern world views to point out). i'm not a believer, but i just try hard to keep open-minded i.e. pick up on the wind different scents of what might be happening. so with that said, here's one of Icke's recent YouTubes i was sent, with his take on what has been happening, a bit long though, but in case you're interested. if you like someone having a good rant, this might be for you! would be fun to see him take on 'what's been going on at spurs?'.
Spursex
Alert Team
Please don't fall into the realm of conspiracy theorists - in government, it's more cock-up than conspiracy. they turned to a myriad of different experts for advice and then had to choose which ones to listen to. Not easy, not easy at all imho.
Confronted with the news that China hid it or lied about it for months and the surge in hospitalizations in Europe followed by an exponential growth in deaths (most probably before their time), I can't see now what else the government could do - it got pilloried for it's waiting and see/herd immunity approach as the infection rate climbed.
If it hadn't taken these unprecedented steps, chances are our NHS wouldn't exist as a functioning body now.
Spursex
Alert Team
Coronavirus conspiracy theories: France riven with fear and distrust
new
The Covid-19 crisis is allowing an old, unsavoury side of the nation’s character to rise to the surface again, writes Charles Bremner in Paris
The French authorities have tightened the lockdown rules in Paris and across the country as the pandemic takes hold
ALAMY
Charles Bremner
, Paris
Wednesday April 01 2020, 5.00pm, The Times
Share
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/...trust-as-the-virus-death-toll-soars-mx9fswws3
It was fitting that French television broadcast Papy Fait de la Résistance — Grandpa is in the Resistance — this week. The classic 1983 comedy about a Paris family under the 1940s Nazi occupation touched a nerve in a country which has fallen back on wartime habits under the 2020 lockdown.
President Macron has declared war against coronavirus and urged the country to rally behind the forces on the medical front. Police hold fierce emergency powers. All face masks have been requisitioned by the state and selling one is now a crime. Black marketeers have been arrested. Police are out en masse inspecting the daily papers that civilians must carry for every journey away from home. Police have issued more than 400,000 on-the-spot fines of €135 each for “illegal movement” in the past two weeks.
Much of the country has adopted the wartime spirit, knuckling down and making do with some humour. In the cities, health workers are cheered from windows and balconies at 8pm. Neighbours are shopping for pensioners. There may be long queues, but unlike the 1940s, there are few shortages apart from masks and hand steriliser.
Tourist hot spots such as the Eiffel Tower are deserted
GETTY IMAGES
The death toll in hospitals has passed the 3,500 mark, and the government has warned not to expect the peak to be reached before another ten days. After a national “confinement” lockdown that opened on March 17, behind Italy but ahead of Britain, and with its relatively well-equipped health system, France has so far been spared the extremes of the Italian and Spanish outbreaks. People are aware, however, that Germany is doing better, and alarm is spreading, with emergency wards saturated in the eastern region and increasingly the Paris area. To relieve hospitals, patients are being shipped out of Alsace and Paris to quieter regions on special TGV high-speed trains and by plane.
As in wartime, the emergency has exposed an old, darker side of French life: the distrust of authority and of strangers, born of centuries of civil strife.
The social fracture that opened with the provincial yellow vest revolt in late 2018 has re-emerged with anger towards Mr Macron and a belief among the more extreme that France’s rulers have criminally bungled the virus crisis, or worse.
The wartime appetite for la délation — reporting wrongdoers to the authorities — has reappeared. In country towns, people are denouncing neighbours to the gendarmerie for breaching le confinement and leaving their homes too often. Police have reported unusually wild driving, with cars speeding at 100 mph through built-up areas.
Tempers are fraying in supermarkets, with unsmiling shoppers in the Paris suburbs treating others with suspicion. Angry locals in coastal areas are seething over the 400,000 Parisians who are estimated to have fled the capital to spend the lockdown in their holiday homes. Some have been refused service and Parisian cars have been vandalised in Brittany and the southwest.
President Macron addresses the nation after visiting a face mask factory near Angers, central France
EPA
Nurses are being threatened by people who see them as carriers of infection. “You are requested to move out as quickly and as far as possible in order not to endanger our lives,” said anonymous letters sent to the homes of several in Bayonne, in the southwest of the country. A nurse in Vulaines-sur-Seine, northeast of Paris, received an unsigned note in her letter box telling her to leave town with her husband. “You will understand our concern over the dangers that you are inflicting on the town by spending time with contaminated people,” it said. Police are trying to trace some of the corbeaux, or crows, the old name for malicious anonymous letter writers.
Conspiracy theories, long popular in France and a fixture of the yellow vest movement, blame the capitalist elite and also Jewish people for starting the epidemic or encouraging it. Many of the claims, shared millions of times on social media, talk of a “military virus” deliberately spread with the aim, variously, of boosting drug company profits, killing the elderly or delivering the country into the hands of multi-nationals or the secret “illuminati”.
One popular belief is that the virus was invented by the Paris Institut Pasteur. It was no accident that Agnès Buzyn, the minister of health until six weeks ago, along with her husband Yves Lévy, head of the national medical research institute Inserm, blocked distribution of chloroquinine, a supposed miracle drug for fighting Covid-19, according to one theory. The couple are part of a Jewish cabal, according to posts shared thousands of times.
A surge of support for Mr Macron at the start of the outbreak has since waned
REUTERS
Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally, is fomenting the conspiracy virus. The runner-up in the 2017 presidential election said on Monday that her supporters were using common sense when a quarter of all the French believe the virus was created in a laboratory, according to Ifop polling.
Half of all French people believe the Macron administration is hiding the truth of the pandemic, according to the same Ipsos poll. Ms Le Pen said the government “is lying to us about absolutely everything without exception”.
The hero of the conspiracy camp is Didier Raoult, 68, the Marseilles epidemiologist with Messiah-like hair who claims that chloroquinine is the solution to the virus. A supporter of the yellow vest movement, Dr Raoult, whose admirers include President Trump, is seen as a saviour thwarted by fake government claims that trials so far have not shown his chloroquinine compound to be effective.
The controversial epidemiologist Didier Raoult is fuelling conspiracy theories that the French government is somehow behind the pandemic, possibly with the assistance of a Jewish cabal
GETTY IMAGES
Leaders of the mainstream centre right and left opposition parties, marginalised since Mr Macron’s election victories of 2017, have subdued their criticism in the national interest. They have been drowned out by the populist extremes, Ms Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon of the radical left Unbowed France.
As we get used to our new lives in isolation, there’s a question on everyone’s lips: how long will this last? And perhaps even more importantly: what needs to happen for life to return to normal? Listen for free on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Acast or wherever you get your podcasts
Listen now
Attempting to reassure the country, Mr Macron no longer disguises his anger over the populists and the “self-proclaimed experts” who are attacking his handling of the crisis and undermining the unity that he is preaching. Unpopular before the crisis began, he enjoyed a surge of public support at the outset but only 44 per cent now say he has responded well; an 11-point drop over a month.
A big source of discontent is the shortage of face masks. Mr Macron is rushing to remedy this with production in France and orders from China.
The yellow vest protest movement has been quick to buy into the anti-government conspiracy theories
GETTY IMAGES
True to French tradition, the air is thick with paradox. The more people distrust the supposedly pro-capitalist president and the governing establishment, the more they want the state that he commands to take charge and usher in a new world order after the pandemic.
A big majority of the country wants a more powerful protective state to emerge from the crisis. More than 70 per cent want the state to curb capitalism and nationalise key sectors, according to a Viavoice poll for today’s Libération newspaper. A similar reflex led Charles de Gaulle to nationalise big industries after the German occupation. Over half the country wants to impose tight curbs on foreign goods, whether from Europe or beyond, the poll found.
In tune with the public, Mr Macron proclaimed this week that the pandemic has “changed the world” and signalled the return of the protective state in the face of globalisation. “We must produce more in France and reduce our dependence” on imported goods, he said. In his declaration of war against the virus on March 12, he promised a break with the past. “There are goods and services that must be placed beyond the laws of the market place.”
Mr Macron’s new gospel marks a U-turn from the liberal pro-market doctrines that won him the election: his aides are already signalling that reconstruction after this war effort means the end of the programme of pro-market reforms that he waged against public resistance since 2017.
new
The Covid-19 crisis is allowing an old, unsavoury side of the nation’s character to rise to the surface again, writes Charles Bremner in Paris
The French authorities have tightened the lockdown rules in Paris and across the country as the pandemic takes hold
ALAMY
Charles Bremner
, Paris
Wednesday April 01 2020, 5.00pm, The Times
Share
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/...trust-as-the-virus-death-toll-soars-mx9fswws3
It was fitting that French television broadcast Papy Fait de la Résistance — Grandpa is in the Resistance — this week. The classic 1983 comedy about a Paris family under the 1940s Nazi occupation touched a nerve in a country which has fallen back on wartime habits under the 2020 lockdown.
President Macron has declared war against coronavirus and urged the country to rally behind the forces on the medical front. Police hold fierce emergency powers. All face masks have been requisitioned by the state and selling one is now a crime. Black marketeers have been arrested. Police are out en masse inspecting the daily papers that civilians must carry for every journey away from home. Police have issued more than 400,000 on-the-spot fines of €135 each for “illegal movement” in the past two weeks.
Much of the country has adopted the wartime spirit, knuckling down and making do with some humour. In the cities, health workers are cheered from windows and balconies at 8pm. Neighbours are shopping for pensioners. There may be long queues, but unlike the 1940s, there are few shortages apart from masks and hand steriliser.
Tourist hot spots such as the Eiffel Tower are deserted
GETTY IMAGES
The death toll in hospitals has passed the 3,500 mark, and the government has warned not to expect the peak to be reached before another ten days. After a national “confinement” lockdown that opened on March 17, behind Italy but ahead of Britain, and with its relatively well-equipped health system, France has so far been spared the extremes of the Italian and Spanish outbreaks. People are aware, however, that Germany is doing better, and alarm is spreading, with emergency wards saturated in the eastern region and increasingly the Paris area. To relieve hospitals, patients are being shipped out of Alsace and Paris to quieter regions on special TGV high-speed trains and by plane.
As in wartime, the emergency has exposed an old, darker side of French life: the distrust of authority and of strangers, born of centuries of civil strife.
The social fracture that opened with the provincial yellow vest revolt in late 2018 has re-emerged with anger towards Mr Macron and a belief among the more extreme that France’s rulers have criminally bungled the virus crisis, or worse.
The wartime appetite for la délation — reporting wrongdoers to the authorities — has reappeared. In country towns, people are denouncing neighbours to the gendarmerie for breaching le confinement and leaving their homes too often. Police have reported unusually wild driving, with cars speeding at 100 mph through built-up areas.
Tempers are fraying in supermarkets, with unsmiling shoppers in the Paris suburbs treating others with suspicion. Angry locals in coastal areas are seething over the 400,000 Parisians who are estimated to have fled the capital to spend the lockdown in their holiday homes. Some have been refused service and Parisian cars have been vandalised in Brittany and the southwest.
President Macron addresses the nation after visiting a face mask factory near Angers, central France
EPA
Nurses are being threatened by people who see them as carriers of infection. “You are requested to move out as quickly and as far as possible in order not to endanger our lives,” said anonymous letters sent to the homes of several in Bayonne, in the southwest of the country. A nurse in Vulaines-sur-Seine, northeast of Paris, received an unsigned note in her letter box telling her to leave town with her husband. “You will understand our concern over the dangers that you are inflicting on the town by spending time with contaminated people,” it said. Police are trying to trace some of the corbeaux, or crows, the old name for malicious anonymous letter writers.
Conspiracy theories, long popular in France and a fixture of the yellow vest movement, blame the capitalist elite and also Jewish people for starting the epidemic or encouraging it. Many of the claims, shared millions of times on social media, talk of a “military virus” deliberately spread with the aim, variously, of boosting drug company profits, killing the elderly or delivering the country into the hands of multi-nationals or the secret “illuminati”.
One popular belief is that the virus was invented by the Paris Institut Pasteur. It was no accident that Agnès Buzyn, the minister of health until six weeks ago, along with her husband Yves Lévy, head of the national medical research institute Inserm, blocked distribution of chloroquinine, a supposed miracle drug for fighting Covid-19, according to one theory. The couple are part of a Jewish cabal, according to posts shared thousands of times.
A surge of support for Mr Macron at the start of the outbreak has since waned
REUTERS
Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally, is fomenting the conspiracy virus. The runner-up in the 2017 presidential election said on Monday that her supporters were using common sense when a quarter of all the French believe the virus was created in a laboratory, according to Ifop polling.
Half of all French people believe the Macron administration is hiding the truth of the pandemic, according to the same Ipsos poll. Ms Le Pen said the government “is lying to us about absolutely everything without exception”.
The hero of the conspiracy camp is Didier Raoult, 68, the Marseilles epidemiologist with Messiah-like hair who claims that chloroquinine is the solution to the virus. A supporter of the yellow vest movement, Dr Raoult, whose admirers include President Trump, is seen as a saviour thwarted by fake government claims that trials so far have not shown his chloroquinine compound to be effective.
The controversial epidemiologist Didier Raoult is fuelling conspiracy theories that the French government is somehow behind the pandemic, possibly with the assistance of a Jewish cabal
GETTY IMAGES
Leaders of the mainstream centre right and left opposition parties, marginalised since Mr Macron’s election victories of 2017, have subdued their criticism in the national interest. They have been drowned out by the populist extremes, Ms Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon of the radical left Unbowed France.
As we get used to our new lives in isolation, there’s a question on everyone’s lips: how long will this last? And perhaps even more importantly: what needs to happen for life to return to normal? Listen for free on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Acast or wherever you get your podcasts
Listen now
Attempting to reassure the country, Mr Macron no longer disguises his anger over the populists and the “self-proclaimed experts” who are attacking his handling of the crisis and undermining the unity that he is preaching. Unpopular before the crisis began, he enjoyed a surge of public support at the outset but only 44 per cent now say he has responded well; an 11-point drop over a month.
A big source of discontent is the shortage of face masks. Mr Macron is rushing to remedy this with production in France and orders from China.
The yellow vest protest movement has been quick to buy into the anti-government conspiracy theories
GETTY IMAGES
True to French tradition, the air is thick with paradox. The more people distrust the supposedly pro-capitalist president and the governing establishment, the more they want the state that he commands to take charge and usher in a new world order after the pandemic.
A big majority of the country wants a more powerful protective state to emerge from the crisis. More than 70 per cent want the state to curb capitalism and nationalise key sectors, according to a Viavoice poll for today’s Libération newspaper. A similar reflex led Charles de Gaulle to nationalise big industries after the German occupation. Over half the country wants to impose tight curbs on foreign goods, whether from Europe or beyond, the poll found.
In tune with the public, Mr Macron proclaimed this week that the pandemic has “changed the world” and signalled the return of the protective state in the face of globalisation. “We must produce more in France and reduce our dependence” on imported goods, he said. In his declaration of war against the virus on March 12, he promised a break with the past. “There are goods and services that must be placed beyond the laws of the market place.”
Mr Macron’s new gospel marks a U-turn from the liberal pro-market doctrines that won him the election: his aides are already signalling that reconstruction after this war effort means the end of the programme of pro-market reforms that he waged against public resistance since 2017.
paddyspur
Vital Reserves Team
as i said..!
Big Chiv
Vital Football Legend
Is Boris not capable of reading the numbers correctly , or asking the questions being asked on here ?
Spursex
Alert Team
When you're in the eye of a storm, most governments would rely on explicit advice from your top scientists; after, you can ask questions.
Just remember empirical data was few and far to be seen.
SpursEagle
Vital Squad Member
I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but I also have a massive distrust of the MSM so always find myself fact checking their usual BS.
The questions I would ask are: who has the most to gain from a worldwide recession? Why are we using data projection models that have proven to be incompetently false? Why are the deaths from Covid-19 being innacurately counted? Why have the MSM been more fervent in blaming Boris and Trump for this while giving China a relatively free pass? Why have the WHO recently praised China when they themselves, along with the rest of us, were misled right from the start from that same secretive, oppressive, communist regime?
I'm not going to pretend I know the answers, nor am I saying that my own doubts are infallible. What I am saying is these questions and this discussion should be taking place on the front pages of Newspapers and top of the hour on whatever News Network we watch, but instead all we get is agenda driven (mis)information. Honestly, I don't know what or who to believe any more.
The questions I would ask are: who has the most to gain from a worldwide recession? Why are we using data projection models that have proven to be incompetently false? Why are the deaths from Covid-19 being innacurately counted? Why have the MSM been more fervent in blaming Boris and Trump for this while giving China a relatively free pass? Why have the WHO recently praised China when they themselves, along with the rest of us, were misled right from the start from that same secretive, oppressive, communist regime?
I'm not going to pretend I know the answers, nor am I saying that my own doubts are infallible. What I am saying is these questions and this discussion should be taking place on the front pages of Newspapers and top of the hour on whatever News Network we watch, but instead all we get is agenda driven (mis)information. Honestly, I don't know what or who to believe any more.
muttley
Alert Team
I'm not a MSM fan as I'm sure most people know. It is clear though that they've asked the questions that we, the general public, would want answered. I've found myself nodding my head with them as they deliver the question and shaking my head when it's evaded by the briefing representatives.
I also feel disappointed that I sign up for the government emails and I get patronised with Transport Usage Change but don't see leading NHS metrics. I only care about 2 things really. The first is the death toll and the second is the NHS's ability to cope with the case load. The rest is secondary at least in the week we're in. That could change as we move through this.
I'm thinking there has to be a shift in the data shared to support the narrative, which I believe is mostly OK. I would rather be seeing headline data rather than having trust my own instincts on the body language of the politicians.
I also feel disappointed that I sign up for the government emails and I get patronised with Transport Usage Change but don't see leading NHS metrics. I only care about 2 things really. The first is the death toll and the second is the NHS's ability to cope with the case load. The rest is secondary at least in the week we're in. That could change as we move through this.
I'm thinking there has to be a shift in the data shared to support the narrative, which I believe is mostly OK. I would rather be seeing headline data rather than having trust my own instincts on the body language of the politicians.
paddyspur
Vital Reserves Team
you could be right Freund. but there's several graphs to consider. the one that would be telling for me is, at any point in time - number of deaths in a country FROM covid19 (not WITH covid19) versus the number in the population of a country who have or have had COVID19.
so right now the total deaths in the UK FROM and/or WITH COVID19 is 2,352.
so far 29,474 have tested positive WITH covid19 in the UK.
and there are more covid19 deaths every day (both FROM or WITH).
2352 as a % of 29,474 is 9.5%. That is a high death rate for sure, and deaths are going up.
if we could (but we can't) test the whole UK population to see who has or has had covid19, it MIGHT be 30 million (the virus MAY well have passed through the population somewhat. but let's ASSUME only 10 million (i had a hacking cough in the UK in January, RD had something, Muttley had something, 2 UK clients and 4 family members of theirs have had something, no clear videos of disaster areas in UK or US hospitals, that's my evidence, not Sky news):
so 2352 as a % of 10 million is 0.0002352% death rate from OR with covid19 in the UK AT THIS POINT, IF we could test everyone.
That's not a real figure. Is it realistic? Is it more realistic than 9.5%? I don't know. Even if it was real, what would it show? Just a snapshot that a very small (insignificant) number of people have died so far from covid19.
Until there is a valid test that the nation can take (or after-testing for anti-bodies) it's all supposition.
Sure, Sky News graphs are certainly exponential / going with the curve. they have to be, they need viewers and to serve their agendas. But deaths out of a small visibly-affected sample will inevitably curve that way as more (a few more?) people become ill enough to require (or fear not having) hospital treatment - until as a herd it has passed through. which was another branch of scientific advice, quite a different model. a model = an approximation at reality. GIGO. Oxford University stopped using WHO's data because they felt it was unreliable. But WHO have to over-respond.
some experts are saying covid19 is the equivalent (in systemic terms) of a mild influenza. others that it is worth flattening our world, to avoid catching. others are saying (1) wash your hands (2) lock away our vulnerable people (3) socially distance where possible (4) don't shut down the world (5) train virtually until mid-April.
i agree with Ex, cock-up, with some people cashing in. the more worrying thing to me is, is how easily we obey and echo chamber advice from Boris Johnston or the office of President Trump or the pre-eminent (and to some discredited) Imperial scientist, and how easily the police might get within one step of tasering some bored person out for a walk. i'm sticking to all the advice but i do believe we should question how and from where we personally create our images and assumptions of killer, exponential, deadly, unprecedented, overwhelmed, overflowing, death pits, sardines, pandemic, go home etc.
Even a bad flu winter passes by our notice normally. flu also takes people before their time and is still doing so at the moment. what i have noticed professionally is that people whose critical faculties i thought worked well don't apply them nearly as much as i assumed they would, but then this is personally fearful, whereas business issues are often 'out there' and abstract.
paddyspur
Vital Reserves Team
Chiv
