North Shropshire by election

[chris who]

Not so much a great victory for the Liberal Democrats. More a massive own goal by life long Tories. The corrupt of the former MP would not have helped. But the second biggest defeat of a Tory seat since 1945 is some record for the prime minister to defend.The seat has been Tory for 200 years.By elections traditionally are a good time to shake up government but the numbers dictate that life long Tories voted Liberal Democrat in great numbers.

 

[Tarian]

Not so much a great victory for the Liberal Democrats. More a massive own goal by life long Tories. The corrupt of the former MP would not have helped. But the second biggest defeat of a Tory seat since 1945 is some record for the prime minister to defend.The seat has been Tory for 200 years.By elections traditionally are a good time to shake up government but the numbers dictate that life long Tories voted Liberal Democrat in great numbers.

Actual vote "swings" (rather than pundit % "swings") seem to be:

[All rounded ]
Labour to LibDem +8,800
Cons to LibDem +3,600
Cons to Not Voting -19,800

2021 (2019)
LibDem 18,000 (5,600)
Cons 12,000 (35,400)
Labour 3,700 (12,500)
Green 1,700 (1,800)

 

[MedwayModernist]

Actual vote "swings" (rather than pundit % "swings") seem to be:

[All rounded ]
Labour to LibDem +8,800
Cons to LibDem +3,600
Cons to Not Voting -19,800

2021 (2019)
LibDem 18,000 (5,600)
Cons 12,000 (35,400)
Labour 3,700 (12,500)
Green 1,700 (1,800)

How in the name of fuck have you managed to work that one out....

 

[shotshy]

If we see Sir Ian Brady rocking up on tv in the new year then we’ll know that the Tory MPs have had enough of the shyster.
They are ruthless if their jobs are in danger.
Ironically, Johnson remaining in situ is probably Labour’s best chance.

 

[MedwayModernist]

Ironically, Johnson remaining in situ is probably Labour’s best chance.

Yup.

The Starmer oppo generally has a good record of doing what's best for the country rather than playing party politics, (as seen by how their MPs have voted on the lockdown measures last week and on other occasions), and it is undoubtedly in the interest of the country for the charlatan (and the whole cabinet frankly) to be replaced.

 

[Baghdad_Rob]

How in the name of fuck have you managed to work that one out....

Labour got 8,800 less votes and I think it is reasonable to expect the vast majority of those voters to have tactically voted Lib Dem as a "get the Tories out" policy.

If you accept the above then logically the other 3600 additional votes the Lib Dems got would have come from people who likely voted Tory last time**.

And if you accept the prior line as being likely true as there isn't really any other sources of 3600 votes, then the question is how to you account for the other 19,800*** fall in votes for the Tories?

In 2019 the turnout was 67.9% or around 56,500 voters
In 2021 the turnout was only 46.3% or around 38,000 voters.

In terms of the missing 19,800 then there were 18,500 less voters. Clearly the vast majority of these non-voters must be Tories.

And the difference of approx 1,300 voters? I think most of them probably voted for the Reform Party (votes: 1400)

Come the next election, I predict the majority of the 18,500 to vote and they are probably naturally Tory leaning. And the Lib Dems only have a majority of 6,000.



---------------------------

** obviously there are a number of smaller independant candidates also standing but the number of votes are not that significant in numbers.

*** 35400 in 2019 less 12000 votes in 2021 less 3600 votes given to the Lib Dems

 

[robbo_gills]

Labour got 8,800 less votes and I think it is reasonable to expect the vast majority of those voters to have tactically voted Lib Dem as a "get the Tories out" policy.

If you accept the above then logically the other 3600 additional votes the Lib Dems got would have come from people who likely voted Tory last time**.

And if you accept the prior line as being likely true as there isn't really any other sources of 3600 votes, then the question is how to you account for the other 19,800*** fall in votes for the Tories?

In 2019 the turnout was 67.9% or around 56,500 voters
In 2021 the turnout was only 46.3% or around 38,000 voters.

In terms of the missing 19,800 then there were 18,500 less voters. Clearly the vast majority of these non-voters must be Tories.

And the difference of approx 1,300 voters? I think most of them probably voted for the Reform Party (votes: 1400)

Come the next election, I predict the majority of the 18,500 to vote and they are probably naturally Tory leaning. And the Lib Dems only have a majority of 6,000.



---------------------------

** obviously there are a number of smaller independant candidates also standing but the number of votes are not that significant in numbers.

*** 35400 in 2019 less 12000 votes in 2021 less 3600 votes given to the Lib Dems

So of everyone who voted Labour in 2019, a) they all voted again this time, and b) 3/4 of them voted Lib Dem? But of everyone who voted Conservative in 2019, a) only 1/2 of the voted this time, and b) 3/4 of them voted Conservative again?

A good chunk of the drop in the Tory vote will be from no-shows, but it's completely illogical to assume the 18,500 drop in turnout were all Tories staying away.

 

[LancsGordoRoad]

North Shropshire is a most attractive region of England. Oswestry, in particular, is well worth a visit or short break.

 

[ThreeSixes]

So of everyone who voted Labour in 2019, a) they all voted again this time, and b) 3/4 of them voted Lib Dem? But of everyone who voted Conservative in 2019, a) only 1/2 of the voted this time, and b) 3/4 of them voted Conservative again?

A good chunk of the drop in the Tory vote will be from no-shows, but it's completely illogical to assume the 18,500 drop in turnout were all Tories staying away.

Yep, it's complete guesswork to try and work out who swapped votes, and who didn't vote.

 

[Gills 58]

If we see Sir Ian Brady rocking up on tv in the new year then we’ll know that the Tory MPs have had enough of the shyster.
They are ruthless if their jobs are in danger.
Ironically, Johnson remaining in situ is probably Labour’s best chance.

Yes. My family discussed this. For the sake of the country we need this shyster out. Regulars on here are only too well aware of my hatred of this character. An utter fraud. I preferred Hunt over Johnson in spite of him being more right wing.

As a Labour party member I'm tempted to watch him carry on until the next election as I believe Labour's chances will dramatically improve. A real dilemma for me as a change of PM now would pribably lead to some hard line right winger getting in.

 

[jogills]

If this was Politics Manager I'd be sorely tempted to play all out for a Liz Truss premiership. Now that would be funny..... in a virtual world.

 

[chris who]

Actual vote "swings" (rather than pundit % "swings") seem to be:

[All rounded ]
Labour to LibDem +8,800
Cons to LibDem +3,600
Cons to Not Voting -19,800

2021 (2019)
LibDem 18,000 (5,600)
Cons 12,000 (35,400)
Labour 3,700 (12,500)
Green 1,700 (1,800)

Even if you numbers are correct the switch from Labour is not such a big step .If Labour voters realised they could topple the Tories with a vote switch I think a large number would do it given the history of the seat.The disappearing Tory vote is harder to understand. Corruption and the party line on various local issues would have been one factor. If the disappearing vote was linked to Boris's own standing then he has very little chance of surviving a leadership challenge. No doubt the party will try to get answers.

 

[Buddha]

Just thought I'd pop by to see if you lot were discussing this.

Wonderful news to wake up to this morning. Absolutely love to see the Tories getting an utter kicking. So sweet. And in such a safe Tory seat too! Had been hoping the LibDems would squeeze home but this was the seventh biggest swing in history. Truly marvelous.

Of course, it'll probably revert back to Tory at the next election. But who cares?! This is all about sending a message to Johnson. North Shropshire, I reckon, spoke for the entire country yesterday.

And what makes it so much sweeter is the complete failure of Kier Starmer's Labour. Consider these figures for the Labour Party in recent North Shropshire constituency elections:

2010 (Gordon Brown) - 18.1%

2015 (Ed Miliband) - 19.9%

2017 (Jeremy Corbyn) - 31.1%

2019 (Jeremy Corbyn) - 22.1%

2021 (Kier Starmer) - 9.6%

Gonna be mighty interesting to see how Kier Starmer and his supporters try to spin this into some kind of success for Labour.


Marvelous, absolutely bloody marvelous!

Happy Christmas everyone.

As you were.

 

[MedwayModernist]

And what makes it so much sweeter is the complete failure of Kier Starmer's Labour. Consider these figures for the Labour Party in recent North Shropshire constituency elections:

2019 (Jeremy Corbyn) - 22.1%

2021 (Kier Starmer) - 9.6%

Gonna be mighty interesting to see how Kier Starmer and his supporters try to spin this into some kind of success for Labour.
.

Out of interest, what's your issue with Starmer?

Labour took a bit of a back stage position on it, and I expect most leant their vote to the lib dems to get the Tories out.

 

[Gills 58]

Just thought I'd pop by to see if you lot were discussing this.

Wonderful news to wake up to this morning. Absolutely love to see the Tories getting an utter kicking. So sweet. And in such a safe Tory seat too! Had been hoping the LibDems would squeeze home but this was the seventh biggest swing in history. Truly marvelous.

Of course, it'll probably revert back to Tory at the next election. But who cares?! This is all about sending a message to Johnson. North Shropshire, I reckon, spoke for the entire country yesterday.

And what makes it so much sweeter is the complete failure of Kier Starmer's Labour. Consider these figures for the Labour Party in recent North Shropshire constituency elections:

2010 (Gordon Brown) - 18.1%

2015 (Ed Miliband) - 19.9%

2017 (Jeremy Corbyn) - 31.1%

2019 (Jeremy Corbyn) - 22.1%

2021 (Kier Starmer) - 9.6%

Gonna be mighty interesting to see how Kier Starmer and his supporters try to spin this into some kind of success for Labour.


Marvelous, absolutely bloody marvelous!

Happy Christmas everyone.

As you were.

Doh Buddha. As a Labour party member I'm delighted with the result last night and would certainly have voted Lib Dem in that constituency.

I believe I was the first on this board to call for Starmer to lead Labour (backed soon after by Shotshy iirc) several years ago. I'm a big fan of his. Last night's result is not a problem for Labour or Starmer at all. Clear tactical voting. Lib Dems lost their deposit in Bexley a few weeks ago.

In the real world we have to make compromises, unless of course one wants to call for perfection from the sidelines and never actually have to be responsible for major decisions and policies.

 

[Buddha]

Out of interest, what's your issue with Starmer?

Labour took a bit of a back stage position on it, and I expect most leant their vote to the lib dems to get the Tories out.

I got quite a few issues with him, MM. Can't really be bothered to list them here, now (and only really replying out of respect for you, I'm no longer an active member of the board, don't you know?!).

But will remind you that I'm an anarchist who has some sympathy with socialism. From that you'll probably be able to work out at least a few of my issues with Starmer.

You're probably right about some Labour supporters voting tactically to get the Tories out but I don't think that's the whole story. I reckon that a proper socialist Labour Party would have been borrowing Liberal votes to oust the Tories yesterday. Who knows? Let's just enjoy the moment. They've been few a d far between recently.

Anyway, I'm outta here.

Up the Gills!

 

[chris who]

Just thought I'd pop by to see if you lot were discussing this.

Wonderful news to wake up to this morning. Absolutely love to see the Tories getting an utter kicking. So sweet. And in such a safe Tory seat too! Had been hoping the LibDems would squeeze home but this was the seventh biggest swing in history. Truly marvelous.

Of course, it'll probably revert back to Tory at the next election. But who cares?! This is all about sending a message to Johnson. North Shropshire, I reckon, spoke for the entire country yesterday.

And what makes it so much sweeter is the complete failure of Kier Starmer's Labour. Consider these figures for the Labour Party in recent North Shropshire constituency elections:

2010 (Gordon Brown) - 18.1%

2015 (Ed Miliband) - 19.9%

2017 (Jeremy Corbyn) - 31.1%

2019 (Jeremy Corbyn) - 22.1%

2021 (Kier Starmer) - 9.6%

Gonna be mighty interesting to see how Kier Starmer and his supporters try to spin this into some kind of success for Labour.


Marvelous, absolutely bloody marvelous!

Happy Christmas everyone.

As you were.

Not sure that the party leadership would have made any difference after all had the Tories held on to their vote share no opposition would have had a chance. This was very much a tactically vote .If there is a By election in a area where Labour have a chance then of course the leadership will get a thumbs up or down. For me the jury is very much out on Starmer. There was no way Tories would vote Labour and I think Labour voters saw that the Lib Dems had a real chance and switched as a result. Had the Tories been safe from a Liberal Democrat challenge there would have been a different outcome.
Indeed if the Labour candidate had a chance I would think a similar victory could have been theirs.But because the Lib Dems finances there is no way they can put the focus on a seat like this in a general election. Oddly I feel that there is potentially a better chance of a Labour victory in the next election as a result of last night.
The thing with Starmer unlike Corbyn is that he might work with other opposition parties in key areas .

 

[shotshy]

Doh Buddha. As a Labour party member I'm delighted with the result last night and would certainly have voted Lib Dem in that constituency.

I believe I was the first on this board to call for Starmer to lead Labour (backed soon after by Shotshy iirc) several years ago. I'm a big fan of his. Last night's result is not a problem for Labour or Starmer at all. Clear tactical voting. Lib Dems lost their deposit in Bexley a few weeks ago.

In the real world we have to make compromises, unless of course one wants to call for perfection from the sidelines and never actually have to be responsible for major decisions and policies.

What he said

 

[chris who]

This makes interesting reading the Liberal Democrats target seats are almost all Tory seats.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
Meanwhile Labour target seats are almost all Tory as well .So the parties or individual voters working together might achieve something.

 

[Baghdad_Rob]

Even if you numbers are correct the switch from Labour is not such a big step .If Labour voters realised they could topple the Tories with a vote switch I think a large number would do it given the history of the seat.

The percentage of vote won by the Tories:

2019 - 62.7%
2017 - 60.5%
2015 - 51.5%
2010 - 51.5%
2005 - 49.6%
2001 - 48.6%
1997 - 40.2%
1992 - 50.5%

In 2001 and 2005 when they didn't win a majority of the vote, they lost the percentages to UKIP. And 1997 was just a universially bad election all around.

Given the history of the seat, I wonder in what way you think Labour voters could topple the Tories with a vote switch under usual circumstances.

The disappearing Tory vote is harder to understand. Corruption and the party line on various local issues would have been one factor. If the disappearing vote was linked to Boris's own standing then he has very little chance of surviving a leadership challenge. No doubt the party will try to get answers.

I think there was a certain amount of apathy in an election where losing the seat would make no real difference on the national scene considering Boris's majority.

If there was a real judgement about Boris then the missing Tory voters would have voted for other parties to make sure there was a real kick in the balls,. This isn't to say there there isn't anger about Boris, but certainly not enough to vote Labour or Lib Dem. Although saying that I would have expected more of a switch towards Reform or UKIP.