How in the name of fuck have you managed to work that one out....
Labour got 8,800 less votes and I think it is reasonable to expect the vast majority of those voters to have tactically voted Lib Dem as a "get the Tories out" policy.
If you accept the above then logically the other 3600 additional votes the Lib Dems got would have come from people who likely voted Tory last time**.
And if you accept the prior line as being likely true as there isn't really any other sources of 3600 votes, then the question is how to you account for the other 19,800*** fall in votes for the Tories?
In 2019 the turnout was 67.9% or around 56,500 voters
In 2021 the turnout was only 46.3% or around 38,000 voters.
In terms of the missing 19,800 then there were 18,500 less voters. Clearly the vast majority of these non-voters
must be Tories.
And the difference of approx 1,300 voters? I think most of them probably voted for the Reform Party (votes: 1400)
Come the next election, I predict the majority of the 18,500 to vote and they are probably naturally Tory leaning. And the Lib Dems only have a majority of 6,000.
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** obviously there are a number of smaller independant candidates also standing but the number of votes are not that significant in numbers.
*** 35400 in 2019 less 12000 votes in 2021 less 3600 votes given to the Lib Dems