North Shropshire by election | Page 2 | Vital Football

North Shropshire by election

chris who said:
This makes interesting reading the Liberal Democrats target seats are almost all Tory seats.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
Meanwhile Labour target seats are almost all Tory as well .So the parties or individual voters working together might achieve something.
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Erm.

That is a list of all the seats on the British Isles that the Lib Dems don't control sorted into the order that the other parties hold over the Lib Dems. Due to the massive majority then logically the majority of their target seats will be Tory.

If you click on the Labour targets it lists all the constituencies held by non-Labour parties where for the same reason the majority are Tory.

And if you look on the Tory page then it lists all the constituencies held not held by the Tories and the majority of the targets are Labour as they are the second biggest party.
 
I would be very surprised if the seat isnt won back by the Conservatives at the next general election.

By-elections are finny things, you can protest against the government knowing thatvthere is no danger of the government changing no matter what way you vote.

Too early to say whether it reflects any long term trends
 
Baghdad_Rob said:
The percentage of vote won by the Tories:

2019 - 62.7%
2017 - 60.5%
2015 - 51.5%
2010 - 51.5%
2005 - 49.6%
2001 - 48.6%
1997 - 40.2%
1992 - 50.5%

In 2001 and 2005 when they didn't win a majority of the vote, they lost the percentages to UKIP. And 1997 was just a universially bad election all around.

Given the history of the seat, I wonder in what way you think Labour voters could topple the Tories with a vote switch under usual circumstances.




I think there was a certain amount of apathy in an election where losing the seat would make no real difference on the national scene considering Boris's majority.

If there was a real judgement about Boris then the missing Tory voters would have voted for other parties to make sure there was a real kick in the balls,. This isn't to say there there isn't anger about Boris, but certainly not enough to vote Labour or Lib Dem. Although saying that I would have expected more of a switch towards Reform or UKIP.
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The Tory vote nationally is not and has never been anywhere near 50% even if you include the UKIP Reform vote.I have always said if Labour and the Liberal Democrats can work a bit closer together there is a real chance .Voters of Labour have shown they are not willing to sit back and allow a extreme Tory party dominate for the long term.This result needs to be looked at by all parties.
My message to all non Tory voters is
TOGETHER WE CAN WIN.
The voters of North Shropshire have sent a clear message the majority do not support this Tory government.This includes very many Tories.
 
Buddha said:
But will remind you that I'm an anarchist who has some sympathy with socialism. From that you'll probably be able to work out at least a few of my issues with Starmer.
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Exactly. Starmer looks more like a Red Tory rather than a socialist by the day, and therefore deserves the same sort of kicking that the blue ones do.

Meanwhile, the leader that achieved the highest Labour percentages in North Shropshire since Blair remains banned from the party for an issue that Starmer seems to have done sod all about himself.
 
I still think Kier Starmer is not the right person for Labour. I always liked David Miliband but i think his time has passed.

I like some of what all 3 main parties stand for but no party really represents me.

I'm still going to vote green next time as my area has a strong conservative record for many years (bar the Blair years).
 
The Libdems are far closer politically to the Tories than they are to Labour.
I can’t see them forming any kind of coalition.

Once Johnson is gone, all those lifelong Tories who hate ‘Bojo’ because of their Brexit views will flow back.
 
shotshy said:
The Libdems are far closer politically to the Tories than they are to Labour.
I can’t see them forming any kind of coalition.

Once Johnson is gone, all those lifelong Tories who hate ‘Bojo’ because of their Brexit views will flow back.
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I am not talking about a coalition I can't see the Liberal Democrats agreement to doing that again with any other party in the near future.
But a pack for the next general election similar to the one the Green Party and Liberal Democrats had before the last election.Sheffield apart I see very few problem seats. All over Britain seats can be won.
Work together and we can remove the Tories.
 
chris who said:
The Tory vote nationally is not and has never been anywhere near 50% even if you include the UKIP Reform vote.I have always said if Labour and the Liberal Democrats can work a bit closer together there is a real chance .Voters of Labour have shown they are not willing to sit back and allow a extreme Tory party dominate for the long term.This result needs to be looked at by all parties.
My message to all non Tory voters is
TOGETHER WE CAN WIN.
The voters of North Shropshire have sent a clear message the majority do not support this Tory government.This includes very many Tories.
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You do know that outside of Liverpool the Conservatives won half the vote in England in December 2019.
 
MedwayModernist said:
You do know that that doesn't matter...

Until the laws change, the votes of Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and Liverpool do count.
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Yes absolutely.

Is it realistic that Labour can get back to government unless they can win back Scotland. There just arent enough seats for them in England (at the moment).

But it all goes in cycles, in the 1950s the Conservatives were the majority party in Scorland, in 1997 Labour won more thzn 50 seats in Scotland (they struggle to win any now).

A former Conservative prime minister used to represent a seat in Liverpool.

Nothing is "fixed" in politics, we dont live in a one party state and at some point the government will change.
 
Basically the libdems and labour are in this position of needing a coalition because they both acted undemocratically going against a legal referendum which allowed the torys in.

The torys are not a right wing party anymore except for rhetoric, they are just corrupt and incompetent.
Libdems and labour are no more left of the torys in fact they are just tory lite.

Exact which policies are in reality different from the boris's? They have learnt nothing from brexit and still have no policies, its just 'we are not them'. Going woke is not liberal or socialist at all, just left fascism instead of right fascism. Where are the economic policies that stand out?
Labours purging of socialists has done nothing, exactly why would anyone vote for labour or libdem torylite parties except you hate the torys or support division and the trans child abuse.

Help needed - serious question for me as an old time socialist - exactly why would i vote for any of these principleless groups?
 
Simon Case has now been removed from the investigation into the number 10 party after it emerged he held his own party .It appears that Boris is that corruption that he appointed someone who he almost certainly knew would do his best to cover things up.
 
This reaches the same conclusion as I do
https://consoc.org.uk/electoral-pacts-and-the-constitution-could-a-pact-be-successful/
I quote from the article.

"With these questions in mind, the Constitution Society commissioned an MRP poll which asked over 14,000 people in England and Wales whether and how they would vote if there were an imminent general election and there was an electoral Pact between Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Green party. The key finding of the poll was that Labour, Green and Liberal Democrat supporters are receptive to a potential Pact, and would largely be willing to support the Pact candidate in their constituency, even if that candidate didn’t represent their preferred party. The poll predicted that with an electoral pact in place, Labour would gain an additional 36 seats, the Liberal Democrats 14 and the Greens eight. The Conservatives would lose 58 seats, enough to deprive them of their majority".

There is no telling what the final result would be as a result of a pact but given the Tories success in the pact with Farage at the last election. I can't see there being the barrier there would have been before that happened.
 
What I will never understand is why all Kent seems to vote Tory.
I can understand it in places like Tunbridge Wells and Sevenoaks, of course.

However, it may sound snobby to say so, but you look at a constituency like Gillingham, for instance, and although there are "well to do" areas like Hempstead and parts of Rainham, the housing stock elsewhere looks very minimum wage, and there are definitely areas of degradation.

There are also a lot of students from Medway Colleges that have the highest social consciences.

I know it is a bit simplistic but the reason I could never vote Tory is that they embody the "greed is good" ethic, and are largely responsible for the ever increasing gap between the haves and have nots. They claim to represent opportunities for everyone, but in reality they back selective schools and heavily favour those that have already had a leg up on the ladder in society, whether they acknowledge it or not.

At the last electon, Labour were only proposing modest tax increases to help create a fairer and kinder society and improve public services, but that was roundly rejected and even the Medway towns returned large Tory majorities.

I know Paul Clark was once elected (after his Gills career, of course;)) but otherwise it seems that some of the medway public are like Turkeys voting for Christmas.
 
Formal election pacts are notoriously difficult to agree and manage. Once over that hurdle the parties in the pact can be characatured as being beholden to the most unpopular sentiments of their outer elements. The charge of weak goverent can be hard to overcome at the ballot box.

The winning North Shropshire candidate claimed that we had not seen a formal pact at work but the sum of thousands of decisions at the point of vote If true that should frighten all parties. A widely disillusioned electorate might have found a way to deliver a wider range of messages.
 
robbo_gills said:
So of everyone who voted Labour in 2019, a) they all voted again this time, and b) 3/4 of them voted Lib Dem? But of everyone who voted Conservative in 2019, a) only 1/2 of the voted this time, and b) 3/4 of them voted Conservative again?

A good chunk of the drop in the Tory vote will be from no-shows, but it's completely illogical to assume the 18,500 drop in turnout were all Tories staying away.
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No one assumes "all" that 18,500 drop were former Tories....
.....but as a broad brush exploring changes in actual votes which seems more useful than a % 'swing' ...
....when the biggest 'swing' is to Not Voting.
 
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ThreeSixes said:
Yep, it's complete guesswork to try and work out who swapped votes, and who didn't vote.
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Obviously analysing vote changes involves some guesswork.
But not as much as pundits suggest.

Having canvassed at most elections over the last 40 years, I am confident that very few people switch directly between Labour and Cons. - from one election to the next.
More likely, at an intermediate election, such voters Abstain.

A larger number may switch directly between Labour and LibDem or between Cons. and LibDem.

Also, factor in that, (because of FPTP), a large ( largest?) number of voters vote AGAINST another Party rather than FOR 'their' Party.
i.e. Surely it is plausible that some 35,000 voters in North Shropshire are anti-Labour - but half saw no risk from abstaining ?
 
Buddha said:
Just thought I'd pop by to see if you lot were discussing this.

Wonderful news to wake up to this morning. Absolutely love to see the Tories getting an utter kicking. So sweet. And in such a safe Tory seat too! Had been hoping the LibDems would squeeze home but this was the seventh biggest swing in history. Truly marvelous.

Of course, it'll probably revert back to Tory at the next election. But who cares?! This is all about sending a message to Johnson. North Shropshire, I reckon, spoke for the entire country yesterday.

And what makes it so much sweeter is the complete failure of Kier Starmer's Labour. Consider these figures for the Labour Party in recent North Shropshire constituency elections:

2010 (Gordon Brown) - 18.1%

2015 (Ed Miliband) - 19.9%

2017 (Jeremy Corbyn) - 31.1%

2019 (Jeremy Corbyn) - 22.1%

2021 (Kier Starmer) - 9.6%

Gonna be mighty interesting to see how Kier Starmer and his supporters try to spin this into some kind of success for Labour.


Marvelous, absolutely bloody marvelous!

Happy Christmas everyone.

As you were.
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If you buy into the "seventh biggest "swing""narrative, that's fine by me ;).
 
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