EU stay or go ? | Page 58 | Vital Football

EU stay or go ?

lol.... so the safe countries imediately bordering conflict-zones have to take all refugees stepping onto their soil first, and other countries have to take none... excellent summation there Professor, Nobel-Prize surely on the way for that nugget of wisdom..

meanwhile...in the real world... that EU-zealot (lol) David Davies himself has stated that UK will continue to need LOW-SKILLED IMMIGRANTS after Brexit,or face a downturn in fortunes..

nice.
 
I've never understood the border control thing. The terorists in the Paris and Belgium attacks were all born and bred there. Hate isn't something created from another country, it's created from intolerance and propagandha. Your just as likely to have a terrorist form the streets of Paris as you would one from Syria or Afghanistan....
 
Nick Real Deal - 21/2/2017 19:49

Junkers says Europe has a lot to be thankful for , for what Britain did in the second world war. Then goes on to say Brexit is going to cost us dear and there will be no favours.

So saving Europe from the Nazis counts for shit then .
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The political landscape could be entirely different in the near future in Europe, the one thing we can predict is that the immediate future is unpredictable.

Junkers can say what he likes, but it will come down to interpretation of the treaties and the final say may well be in the Law courts. It is a negotiating stance, we may well have significant claims for off-set against any 'demands' they make.

That said, if we get out by having to pay anything up to £30-40 billion by 2020 will be in my view an absolute result, sadly much of this will be because we allowed the commission to build themselves contracts the likes of which our civil servants only used to be able to fantasise about.

We could easily meet our immediate commitments simply by moving payments into our overseas aid budget.

Juncker and the EU are already (wittingly or unwittingly) using game theory, we will and are doing the same - we now have our own 'insiders' within the EU that are falling in line and offers of support, in as much as keeping the commission sensible (Poland, Hungry, Holland and now increasing key elements within both Germany and France.

No doubt there will be times when it's highly contested and testy, but both we and the EU have a history of having entrenched positions but then finding reasonable common ground and 'accommodations' - I expect the same here, there is no good reason not to be that way.

The EU has to use this existential crisis to address it's core failings - the interesting part will be whether it overhauls the powers of the commission or whether it follows the roadmap of the Five Presidents, at the moment the dynamic tension suggests that no side is yet on control and it's a 50/50 call...

Juncker's is stupid to reference the second World war, but it's his now increasingly desperate utterances to try and recover his reputation that is now firmly that he is and always has been 'anti-British'...
 
A top ally of Angela Merkel has strongly criticised Jean-Claude Juncker for threatening Britain with a “very hefty” Brexit bill on day one of the negotiation. CDU Home Affairs spokesman Stephan Meyer told the Today programme:


“I am not very happy, to be frank, with the statement of Jean-Claude Juncker. The negotiations haven’t started yet and I think it’s not very clever and it’s not very fair also to mention such sums and such amounts… It’s not very smart now to start these negotiations with such amounts which are mentioned.”

This backs up the report in yesterday’s Times which said Merkel was siding with Britain over Juncker and Michel Barnier over an immediate Brexit bill. It is possible that Britain will end up paying a smaller charge for the future aspects of the relationship we want to keep, for example the Erasmus programme for students.
 
If the Erasmus programme goes than that would be a travesty. I don't think even David Davies is that thick to not value it.
 
Spurfect11 - 22/2/2017 11:11

If the Erasmus programme goes than that would be a travesty. I don't think even David Davies is that thick to not value it.
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The current will is to keep it intact as is, but the Commission may well have other idea's - as some have suggested.

It's much the same for the attempt on a quick agreement over reciprocal rights to stay, we want it, but some in the EU, don't.

 
It's in Europe's interest to make deals with us which enables healthy trade both ways. The Germans know this as we import so much from them. France too. Free movement of labour is also essential for production to carry on and increase for both sides. PSA are already sizing up GM UK , I wonder what that could mean ?
 
As you quite rightly point out Nick, free movement is part of the parcel of trade. But free movement goes against one of the main thrusts of the Brexit campaign about UK jobs being taken by EU nationals. How will that circle be squared if Theresa May is serious about promising this won't happen? When she went to India as her first trip to begin negotiating a trade deal after the referendum, the first question she got from the Indian PM was how many Indians can come to the UK? It's all gone quiet. Ending freedom of movement would be damaging to the UK because of the economical and trade implications.

If we want to trade It's either migration or outsourcing (as James Dyson has done by setting up his factories in Malaysia. In neither case will many who voted to leave be happy.



 
No, we can and will continue to promote migration; only after we've left, it will be based on merit and will be managed.

Controlled migration is both necessary and beneficial. Uncontrollable migration is not.

There are many different models for doing this, but I suspect we will find a model that best fits our needs.

As for the Indian question, May wasn't silent on it at all:

http://news.sky.com/story/pm-visa-deal-if-india-takes-back-more-illegal-migrants-10648916


PM offers visa deal if India takes back more illegal immigrants

India is offered a deal that could see more people to come to the UK, as the PM also looks for a post-Brexit trade agreement.

13:08, UK, Monday 07 November 2016
Theresa May in India
Video: Horns of May's dilemma: Indian Trade v visa rights

By Jason Farrell, Senior Political Correspondent

Theresa May has offered to relax visa restrictions for Indian people wanting to come to the UK - in return for faster returns of illegal immigrants and overstayers.

Speaking on a trade visit to Delhi, the Prime Minister said: "The UK will consider further improvements to our visa offer if at the same time we can step up the speed and volume of returns of Indians with no right to remain in the UK."

Pressure has been on Theresa May to offer better visa access to the UK in return for post-Brexit trade.

But she is also focused on trying to reach the long-missed target of reducing UK immigration to the tens of thousands.

Some have commented that in return for controlling immigration from the EU, Britain will have to relax border controls on citizens from other counties in order to forge global trade deals.
Theresa May with Narenda Modi
Image Caption: Theresa May has to balance trade and migration in her talks with PM Narendra Modi

Local media in India have reacted negatively to increased restrictions on student visas since new rules came into force in 2011.

This has led to a 20,000 drop in the number of international students coming to the UK, Indian officials have claimed.

There is also pressure on the Prime Minister to allow more work visas to the UK as she attempts to build trade relationships with the world's fastest growing major economy.

Asked yesterday by Sky News whether new trade deals could lead to a relaxation of the visa system, the PM said: "We have a visa system for countries outside of the EU that ensures the brightest and the best can come to the United Kingdom."
Theresa May with Narenda Modi during her three-day visit to India
Image Caption: The PM is in India for a three-day visit

When it came to visa applications from India, she added: "Nine out of 10 are already accepted. We have, I believe, a good system. We will be talking about trade and I expect new deals will be signed while we are here."

Mrs May has also offered to make India the first visa country to be added to the Registered Traveller Scheme, under which business travellers can clear border control more quickly in British airports.

It will allow passengers to come through the e-Passport gates usually reserved for Britons and Europeans and without a requirement to complete a landing card.

The Prime Minister, who is in Delhi to pave the way for the UK's first post-Brexit trade deal, said: "Trade is an important part of our relationship with India.

"India is the third biggest investor into the UK - second biggest creator of private sector jobs in the UK - and the UK is the biggest G20 investor into India, but there is more we can do."

Mrs May said her visit would coincide with business deals between the two countries worth hundreds of millions of pounds.

Speaking after the the speech, a Number 10 spokeswoman said the "assessment criteria won't change" but the "offer" on visas would be based around "improving our service to make it easier for people to apply - for example we could look at cost".
 
its 1 of the biggest illusions that the Germans and French export SO MUCH MORE to the UK than vice versa ergo. they have more to lose.... that is only as measured by a percentage of UK GDP.. ditto with rest of Europe.

44% of a small pie is still very much smaller than 6% of a much bigger pie of the EU27..

its far far faaaar easier to redirect a mere 6% of your exports than it is to redirect 44%.. nearly half... that the UK will potentially have to..

all in all, I'm rather liking how this Brexit is shaping up.... should prove quite entertaining watching Dave from 'daan da pub' take on Goliath...
 
....and lets also not forget that redirecting UK exports to EU will face further and direct competition from the EU27 exports that may otherwise be for the UK...

 
Sense will prevail ??.... you have Davies, Fox and Johnson as the 3 wise men...

its going to be very painful, but a new political dynamic will rise from the ashes....

every battle is won...before... its even fought..
 
Nick Real Deal - 22/2/2017 20:59

I don't think we will have to take anybody on. Sense will prevail.
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The EU has to take the opportunity that this existential crisis is for them - slowly but surely, the more sensible heads in the EU are beginning to be heard and ultimately they will prevail.

I was in Germany yesterday for a meeting with one of the biggest companies in the World; their view was actually simple; Germany Industry simply won't allow politicians to screw up trade, and they are now exerting that exact pressure on politicians.

The history of the EU is to see a crisis, scream and shout and come up with a reasonable compromise, you can absolutely guarantee the same will happen again.

Of course my old mates inside the commission are still hurt, it is the hurt of a rejected love partner, it's also the terror of the cuts their budget will have to face post 2020 - many sacred cows are now being reviewed ready to be sacrificed; CAP being one of them - the shame is we''d asked for this immoral and environmentally damaging policy to be drastically cut for years, and now they're really going to have to do it.

The remoaners are still playing project fear thinking that it will somehow save them from the realization that the EU has been and still is in a mess (that doesn't mean that they can't sort it out).

Happy days :7:
 
No change..

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3844/Latest-on-public-attitudes-to-Brexit.aspx

Latest on public attitudes to Brexit


Published:27 February 2017

Fieldwork:17 - 20 February 2017

Theme:Europe / Euro / EU

Keywords:Brexit, Constitution, EU, EU Referendum, European Union, House of Lords
(Click on keywords to find related Research)



New Ipsos MORI research commissioned by social entrepreneur Hugh Davidson, MBE, shows that Britain remains split on key Brexit issues and to date neither Remainers nor Leavers show signs of changing their minds.

Eight months after the Referendum, the research, carried out with online British adults aged 18-75, finds only 4% of those who voted in the referendum would change their vote, and there was no difference in this between Remainers and Leavers. So, no change to date.

Hugh Davidson, a private individual and retired businessman [see Hugh Davidson (marketer) Wikipedia], commissioned the research to update legislators and the media on public attitudes to Parliament, Brexit, Article 50, and how best to exit the EU, concurrent with the House of Lords debate. He has no party-political affiliation and is currently conducting a global study on how to achieve both economic growth and greater equality. He comments:

“In an age of fake news, misleading sound bites, alternative ‘facts’, and personal attacks, I am a strong believer in objective evidence and reasoned discussion between people with different views. The research is a small contribution to this cause”

The research also shows that there is generally little trust in MPs or Lords. Only 27% trust Peers ‘a great deal’/’a fair amount’. MPs’ score is slightly better at 33%. When asked whose interests members put first, the vast majority of respondents said ‘their own’ or ‘their party’s’. Only 6% thought MPs put their country’s interest first and only another 9% thought they put their constituents first. For Peers, just 15% said they put their country first.

When asked whether leaving the European single market would be better or worse for the UK economy over the next 5 years, 29% said ‘better’ and ‘39%’ worse (the rest opted for ‘no difference’ or ‘don’t know’).

On this topic, there were major differences between Remainers (14% ‘better’:67% ‘worse’) and Leavers (48% ‘better’:15% ‘worse’); and by party support. Scots and graduates were especially pessimistic about the economic effect.

On protecting single market access versus controlling freedom of movement, the country was split down the middle with 41% favouring restricting freedom of movement for EU citizens to come to Britain, and 40% prioritising continued access to the single market. There were again large differences in view between Remain (19% freedom of movement:67% single market access) and Leave (almost exactly the reverse – 67%:17%). Conservative (59%:30%) and Labour 2015 voters (30%:53%) were only slightly less polarised.

When it comes to how the Lords and Parliament should vote, there appears to be no great appetite for voting down the Government or imposing extra conditions into the Government’s negotiations, although this will depend on what the rest of the terms actually are.

On the House of Lords vote on Article 50, only 24% thought either Peers should vote against the Government triggering this (12%), or impose the condition that it should negotiate to keep Britain in the single market (also 12%).

The Government has recently said that Parliament will be allowed to vote on the final position that is reached after the negotiation, expected in around 2 years’ time. Respondents were given three options. 25% said that there should be no vote in Parliament at all, 24% that Parliament should vote before negotiations begin (to tell Government what terms to negotiate), and 30% that Parliament should only vote after the negotiations are completed, to accept or reject the terms negotiated. The remaining percent said ‘Don’t Know’

 
Well we are good to go now, why is May delaying?

I get the feeling she doesn't want to be the one to press the button, or are we just nowhere near ready after Davies comments as we have no idea how it will affect things like flights.....

Now do I change up my $ now, or wait.....
 
The EU adopting a Trump,like protectionist agenda. Now if that isn't irony at its purest I don't know what is.
 
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