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Electric Cars

Big Chiv - 29/7/2017 14:34

So when are they upgrading the national power grid to cope with all this extra consumer demand on electricity ?
It can hardly cope now when all the kettles are switched on at H/T during big World Cup matches.

Off grid power generation will solve this problem. In fact, the sooner we all get off the grid the better.
 
Apparently 10 nuke stations and 10 thousand wind turbines are needed but that's probably underestimated. It will be a gradual switch over but the cost of the production from nukes is scary. Already hydrogen power is proving more expensive than petrol and that's without duty and tax etc.
 
This guy is a tough listen but the information is critical to planning for the future, personally and globally.

[youtube=5H6AOBWNmrY]
 
80deg16minW - 29/7/2017 14:44

Big Chiv - 29/7/2017 14:34

So when are they upgrading the national power grid to cope with all this extra consumer demand on electricity ?
It can hardly cope now when all the kettles are switched on at H/T during big World Cup matches.

Off grid power generation will solve this problem. In fact, the sooner we all get off the grid the better.

the big leap forward will be when homes have their own batteries that can hold charge from your own solar panel/ thermal deep pump or wind turbine(s) - this could lower grid demand by up to 50%....it would be efficient, relatively cheap and negative much of the current forecast for new central generators..
 
Nick Real Deal - 30/7/2017 18:30

How many years electricity bills equate to the cost of installing a wind turbine , solar panels and batteries ?

OMG, You sound like these guys:

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
Thomas Watson, president of IBM, 1943




"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."
Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977
 
Nick Real Deal - 30/7/2017 18:30

How many years electricity bills equate to the cost of installing a wind turbine , solar panels and batteries ?

When a market reaches a key inflection point; someone/some industries makes qualified gamble(s) and invests in new infrastructure: this in turn drives down costs and adoption soars until the market reaches a plateau of productivity - the same will happen here.

A number of factors/innovations (such as smart metres/home hubs/ Internet of things etc) are coming together at the same time to great new service models for consumers that offer greater opportunities for infrastructure control(s) for providers.

The life of these capital items may well be 50-100 years (some even suggest longer) with minimal physical maintenance, the costs amortised over it's useful life (as they pretty much are for the channel tunnel for example and as they will be for HS2) means that service / usage charges for such a safe yield return on long term investments will make them easily affordable for most of the current marketplace.

It's a no-brainer, it really is. It will be a new gold rush and first mover advantage will pay off big to those who have the capital, the balls and the innovative market models.
 
An example of a potential break-through disruptive technology that can help transform energy conservation and storage:


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-31/alphabet-wants-to-fix-renewable-energy-s-storage-problem-with-salt

Alphabet Wants to Fix Renewable Energy’s Storage Problem — With Salt

The latest idea from the X ‘moonshot factory’ is code named Malta

By
Mark Bergen


?31? ?July? ?2017? ?10?:?00

A representation of Malta’s grid-scale energy storage technology (Source: X)



Alphabet Inc.'s secretive X skunk works has another idea that could save the world. This one, code named Malta, involves vats of salt and antifreeze.

The research lab, which hatched Google's driverless car almost a decade ago, is developing a system for storing renewable energy that would otherwise be wasted. It can be located almost anywhere, has the potential to last longer than lithium-ion batteries and compete on price with new hydroelectric plants and other existing clean energy storage methods, according to X executives and researchers.

The previously undisclosed initiative is part of a handful of energy projects at X, which has a mixed record with audacious "moonshots" like Google Glass and drone delivery. Venture capitalists, and increasingly governments, have cut funding and support for technology and businesses built around alternatives to fossil fuels. X's clean-energy projects have yet to become hits like its driverless cars, but the lab isn't giving up.


"If the moonshot factory gives up on a big, important problem like climate change, then maybe it will never get solved," said Obi Felten, a director at X. "If we do start solving it, there are trillions and trillions of dollars in market opportunity."

She runs The Foundry, where a Malta team of fewer than 10 researchers is testing a stripped-down prototype. This is the part of X that tries to turn experiments in science labs into full-blown projects with emerging business models, such as its Loon internet-beaming high-altitude balloons. Malta is not yet an official X project, but it has been "de-risked" enough that the team is now looking for partners to build, operate and connect a commercial-sized prototype to the grid, Felten said. That means Alphabet may team up or compete with industrial powerhouses like Siemens AG, ABB Ltd. and General Electric Co.


X is stepping into a market that could see about $40 billion in investment by 2024, according Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Roughly 790 megawatts of energy will be stored this year and overall capacity is expected to hit 45 gigawatts in seven years, BNEF estimates. Existing electrical grids struggle with renewable energy, a vexing problem that's driving demand for new storage methods. Solar panels and wind farms churn out energy around midday and at night when demand lulls. This forces utilities to discard it in favor of more predictable oil and coal plants and more controllable natural gas "peaker" plants.


In the first half of this year, California tossed out more than 300,000 megawatts produced by solar panels and wind farms because there's no good way to store it. That's enough to power tens of thousands of homes. About 4 percent of all wind energy from Germany was jettisoned in 2015, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. China throws out more than 17 percent.

Felten is particularly excited about working with companies in China, a voracious energy consumer -- and a country where almost all Google web services are banned. Before that happens, the Malta team has to turn what is now an early test prototype in a warehouse in Silicon Valley into a final product that can be manufactured and is big and reliable enough for utilities to plug it into electricity grids.

In renderings, viewed by Bloomberg News, the system looks like a miniature power plant with four cylindrical tanks connected via pipes to a heat pump. X says it can vary in size from roughly the dimensions of a large garage to a full-scale traditional power plant, providing energy on demand to huge industrial facilities, data centers or storage for small wind farms and solar installations.

The system mixes an established technique with newly designed components. "Think of this, at a very simple level, as a fridge and a jet," said Julian Green, the product manager for Malta.

Two tanks are filled with salt, and two are filled with antifreeze or a hydrocarbon liquid. The system takes in energy in the form of electricity and turns it into separate streams of hot and cold air. The hot air heats up the salt, while the cold air cools the antifreeze, a bit like a refrigerator. The jet engine part: Flip a switch and the process reverses. Hot and cold air rush toward each other, creating powerful gusts that spin a turbine and spit out electricity when the grid needs it. Salt maintains its temperature well, so the system can store energy for many hours, and even days, depending on how much you insulate the tanks.

Scientists have already proven this as a plausible storage technique. Malta's contribution was to design a system that operates at lower temperatures so it doesn't require specialized, expensive ceramics and steels. "The thermodynamic physics are well-known to anyone who studied it enough in college," Green said. "The trick is doing it at the right temperatures, with cheap materials. That is super compelling."

The Malta team at workSource: X

X declined to share exactly how cheap its materials are. Thermal salt-based storage has the potential to be several times cheaper than lithium-ion batteries and other existing grid-scale storage technologies, said Raj Apte, Malta's head engineer. German engineering firm Siemens is also developing storage systems using salt for its solar-thermal plants.

But lithium-ion battery prices are falling quickly, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. And Malta must contend with low oil and natural gas prices, a market reality that's wiped out several companies working on alternatives to fossil fuels. "It could potentially compete with lithium-ion," said Bloomberg New Energy Finance analyst Yayoi Sekine. "But there are a lot of challenges that an emerging technology has to face."

One hurdle is convincing energy incumbents to put capital into a project with potential returns many years down the road. Alphabet has the balance sheet to inspire confidence, with $95 billion in cash and equivalents. Yet the tech giant has a recent history of retreating from or shutting experimental projects that stray from its core areas of high-power computing and software.

Robert Laughlin, a Nobel prize-winning physicist whose research laid the foundation for Malta, is now a consultant on the project. He met X representatives at a conference a few years ago. They discussed the idea, and the lab ultimately decided to fund the project and build a small team to execute it. Laughin has signed off on the team's designs, and he said his theories have been working with the prototype.

Laughlin believes X is more committed than previous potential backers. He first pitched the idea as his own startup, taking it to luminary tech investors including Khosla Ventures and Peter Thiel's Founders Fund. They passed, according to the scientist, because they didn't want to deal with the tougher demands of a conservative energy industry that will have to buy and use the system in the end. "What we're talking about here is engines and oil companies -- big dinosaurs with very long teeth," said Laughlin. That's "above the pay grade of people out here." A representative from Founders Fund declined to comment. Khosla didn't respond to requests for comment.

X won't say how much it has invested so far, but it's enough for Laughlin. "A blessing came out of the sky," he said. "X came in and took a giant bite out of this problem."

 
This report is worth downloading and reading.

https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/?src=social#toc-download
 
80deg16minW - 1/8/2017 14:09

This report is worth downloading and reading.

https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/?src=social#toc-download

Excellent summary; pretty much mirrors what I said earlier about key inflection points and new tech/costs going down ready for mass market :17:
 
80deg16minW - 30/7/2017 22:43

Nick Real Deal - 30/7/2017 18:30

How many years electricity bills equate to the cost of installing a wind turbine , solar panels and batteries ?

OMG, You sound like these guys:

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
Thomas Watson, president of IBM, 1943




"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."
Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977

It was a question
 
Panels start at 6 k so call it 10, Pole wind turbine start at 10 k then the batteries. Let's call it 22k . At 1 k a year electric it takes 22 years to break even . Minus any grid contribution of course. Thats only quick calculation though. If you have mega panels and turbine you will be feeding the grid I guess. Depends what they are paying for the juice. Like I said it was a question, not a statement
 
Clean electric cars are built on pollution in Congo
The country’s cobalt bonanza looks set to benefit only elites and mining companies

Visitors and employees inspect old kimberlite rock tailings from diamond mining in the Kroonstad open pit diamond mine, operated by De Beers SA, in Kroonstad, South Africa, on Tuesday, May 3, 2017. The Anglo American Plc unit plans to store carbon-dioxide in kimberlite -- a type of ore best known for containing diamonds, but which also naturally reacts with carbon to remove it from the atmosphere. Photographer: Waldo Swiegers/Bloomberg
© Bloomberg

July 26, 2017 5:31 pm by David Pilling

Behind every clean electric car there is cobalt. And behind cobalt is the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Cobalt is a critical element in lithium-ion batteries used in electric cars. Such batteries already consume 42 per cent of the metal and demand will soar as the world switches from petrol and diesel cars to electric ones. This week, Britain followed France in declaring a ban on such vehicles from 2040. Soon, almost anyone in the rich world will be able to drive safe in the knowledge that they’re being kinder and gentler to the planet.

Did I mention the Democratic Republic of Congo? Some 60 per cent of the world’s cobalt comes from this central African country, one the size of western Europe and with gargantuan problems to match. Some industry analysts are predicting a 30-fold increase in cobalt demand by 2030, much of which will come from Congo. Cobalt prices doubled in the past year alone. You might imagine the average Congolese would be thrilled by the prospect of the coming bonanza. But if history is any guide, the average Congolese will gain little — save perhaps from militia violence and perhaps a dangerous, poorly paid job.


In Congo, they say, you can find every element in the periodic table. But this abundance has not done its people much good. A recent report by Global Witnessfound that 30 per cent of revenue paid to state bodies by mining companies from 2013 to 2015 — about $750m — simply vanished.

A separate report about Joseph Kabila, the president, whose family dominates 80 lines of business, gives a clue as to where some of it might have gone. Instead of benefiting from its vast mineral wealth, Congolese are among the poorest people on the planet, with a per-capita income of $800. It is enough to give the socially conscious Tesla driver sleepless nights.

Does it have to be like this? Resources are hard to cope with even if you have the best institutions. This is not a description that can be applied to Congo. The country has been horribly misruled since it became the personal colony of King Leopold II of Belgium in 1885.

He used the Congolese as slaves, hounding millions to death and chopping off the limbs of those deemed too tardy in stripping the country of its natural wealth — mainly rubber used for tyres in the first auto boom. In 1960, a brutalised Congo won independence. The Belgians, French and British — hoping to maintain control over copper and cobalt-rich Katanga province — unsuccessfully tried to engineer its secession.

When that failed, the west threw its weight behind Mobutu Sese Seko, a leader whose anti-Communist credentials made him an ally. In return for Mobutu’s support, western governments ignored his peccadilloes: which, sadly for the Congolese, involved plundering the country.

After three decades, Mobutu fell. But the policy of colluding with Congo’s elite to strip ordinary citizens of their birthright has gone on unabated. The west has poured in billions in peacekeeping and aid. But foreign mining companies have extracted billions more in gold, diamonds, tin, coltan, copper and cobalt.


Wittingly or unwittingly the big miners operating in Congo have helped fund this institutionalised looting. Behind their claims of corporate responsibility, world-class mines, verified supply chains and environmental care lies a different reality: poverty, violence and toxic pollution.

Industrial mines operated by the likes of Glencore, the world’s biggest cobalt supplier, may have better standards than the artisanal mines that pock the landscape, where labourers, including children, often work in the most wretched conditions. With the best will in the world, it is hard to verify whether cobalt from these mines is entering a supply chain of dizzying complexity, which may involve mines in Congo, smelting in China and sale, as part of a laptop or electric car, in Los Angeles or London.

Companies such as Apple, HP and Samsung have joined an effort to bring more light to the supply chain. Another group has announced its intention to expand a scheme that monitors the “conflict minerals” of tin, tungsten, tantalum and gold.

Yet even verifying the supply chain is not a painless solution. When US legislation came into force in 2010, requiring companies to declare whether violent groups were profiting from minerals, many simply boycotted Congo as a supplier, throwing hundreds of thousands of artisanal miners out of work. Ensuring that ordinary Congolese people actually benefit from the riches beneath their feet is a devilishly complex business. But it should not be beyond the wit of the same clever people who invented the electric car.

david.pilling@ft.com
 
How long will cobalt last and how expensive will it get ? Keeping in mind the plight of the Congolese people should their efforts in mining the material be better rewarded and the rulers held to account ?

 
Nick Real Deal - 4/8/2017 15:47

How long will cobalt last and how expensive will it get ? Keeping in mind the plight of the Congolese people should their efforts in mining the material be better rewarded and the rulers held to account ?

Some good questions; I'm an investor in cobalt mining stocks, whilst around 60% of the World's cobalt comes from Africa, that won't be the case within 10 years time, cobalt is primarily a by product of copper and Nickel mining - and the estimates suggest that there is enough supply to meet high growth demand outside of Africa for hundreds of years, a lot of it will come from junior new /mothballed mines in North America/Europe (at the moment they only supply around 5% of the Worlds demand - but that can change very quickly with relatively small upwards movement in pricing).

It's also worth considering two further aspects of battery production; a) Cobalt is 100% recyclable b) whilst Tesla currently use a high cobalt content battery for it's models which are made by Panasonic there are next gen batteries (predominantly from China as of now) that use low-cobalt lithium derivatives, and it's clear that after the initial ramp up - those will likely to be the batteries of choice for the next 20 years once critical mass has been realized.

The congo is currently a mess that's true, but the likelihood of it causing a significant supply chain disruption is small - North Amercian mines would be delighted if somehow it did happen as they could start mining production with months, in some cases, even weeks.
 
The World Bank has just announced that, as of 2019, they will no longer finance oil and gas exploration, extraction and refining in developing nations.

The rationale is the massive drop in the cost of battery and solar technology.
 
New kid on the block:

https://www.karmaautomotive.com/#capsule
 
80deg16minW - 10/1/2018 10:10

New kid on the block:

https://www.karmaautomotive.com/#capsule

I'm not sure Karma is really new. Isn't it just Fisker under new ownership?

The car certainly looks like a Fisker Karma (Which if I recall, had an annoying habit of catching on fire)