EFL Statement: Board Update On Coronavirus | Page 2 | Vital Football

EFL Statement: Board Update On Coronavirus

MaineRoad_96

Vital 1st Team Regular
#22
I think you're not wrong. However, at least 4 already-existing treatment drugs are currently in tests (hopefully more effective than Tamiflu!). These could certainly help mitigate the effects of some of the worst infections.

Anti-body texting may allow recovered patients to return to work. But eventually, it will probably require a vaccine and mass application thereof.

All those anti-vaxxers are looking a bit stupid now, eh?
Now?!
 

hulloutpost

Vital 1st Team Regular
#23
I have a scientist friend who works for the company that the government are using to develop the antibody testing, as part of the team actually physically involved in the hands on science so hopefully he knows what he is talking about. Basically he says we are in for the long haul because it will have peaks and troughs due to the problems of re-infection. He expects it to tail off a bit over Summer as people tend not to be on top of each other as much but even with antibodies (if it works at identifying 'safe' people) it won't take much social interaction from the unprotected to have it flaring up again. His take on it is that vaccines are good but they are long term and you CANNOT rely on them to be successful. He wouldn't be surprised if this takes two years off and on to run it's cycle. Even though successful development of antibody testing would be great for him personally and a very very good weapon used in conjunction with vaccination plus social distancing, he was crystal clear that of those, extreme social distancing (lock down) will have by far the most significant impact. Unfortunately that just happens to be the most radical, difficult and disruptive measure to implement and sustain.
Edit - The good news is that he wasn't fazed about the strain mutating. He explained that mutations almost always lose potency.
 
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buckielugger

Vital 1st Team Regular
#24
I personally think they will be lucky to start the new season in August! I think the virus will then just keep coming back! If you look at the Spanish Flu it lasted nearly two years!

I think we are in for a very long haul on this one because all this isolation is just delaying it! The only way it will be defeated is if and when we build up herd immunity (which is how mankind has always dealt with diseases) which will unfortunately mean a lot of deaths or they develop a vaccine either way you are looking at potentially 18 months to two years!

Prepare to batten down the hatches for a good long while yet!

Looking at the Italian stats, they are running at around a 9% mortality rate, far higher than we were being advised earlier in this crisis.

Also, our daily deaths at each stage are matching Italy so so closely, but 14 days behind them.
So we seem very much on exactly the same path as them at the moment.

This could turn into a huge death toll there and here and who knows where else.

Naturally extremely worried myself and hoping Monday will be my last day of having to go into work. All dependent on IT guy sorting me out.

Really hard going to get my company to do anything on this. They are adamant that they have no legal requirement to do anything and that if anyone self isolates its entirely their own choice and they won't get paid a thing.
 

buckielugger

Vital 1st Team Regular
#27
Still it's just flu eh? No reason to panic, just the media hyping things up and the government overreacting...
Even a few weeks back people in my office were saying, "if this is just another mild flu, how come all these other countries are going into lockdown etc. There's something they're definitely not telling us."

That has been proved most definitely the case.
Pity there couldn't have been honesty from the top and the media. Oh well.
 
7

79imp

Guest
#28
I’ve been guilty of some bombastic comments since this virus situation first came to light - some of which I have come to regret, especially when you look at the desperate situation in Italy.

However, for those that remember my long rant on these boards a week or so ago, my primary worry was the analysis being done - in the mainstream media at least - on the statistics that are readily available, and their attendant effect on national and indeed international outlook and behaviour. Therefore, in the interests of balance and at least one alternative perspective, I thought some of these figures might be worth sharing (stats as of the morning of 21/3/20):

Current cases rated as serious/critical: 7,765 out of 172,641 - a rate of 4.5%

This serious/critical rate varies hugely among different countries:

Germany: TWO out of 19,600 (0.01%)
UK: 20 out of 3,741 (0.5%)
South Korea: 59 out of 6,085 (1%)
France: 1,297 out of 10,575 (12%)
Italy: 2,655 out of 37,860 (7%)

The mortality rate as things stand is 11,399 out of 275,952 cases (4%) although again there are major variations between individual countries, and of course major variations between different age groups and people with existing medical conditions.

All of these statistics are available at this website:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

As for flu, the respected John Hopkins University states that there is an estimated 1 billion cases worldwide in a year, with deaths anywhere between 291,000 and 646,000 - a rate of 0.07%.

It's probably fair to say that these numbers could never be 100% reliable in a worldwide context, not least because flu has never been under the statistical mircoscope that Covid-19 is now. However, taking their highest estimates for flu cases in the US, the rate comes out at 0.1% - clearly well below the current mortality rate for Covid-19.

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/hea...ronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu

What does all this mean? Goodness only knows... I'm not even sure the experts saying that the virus will have peaked in June/July or that 260,000 people will be infected in the UK have much certainty over the figures. What is clear is that there are massive variations and a lack of consistent statistical patterns around the world - maybe as a result of the lack of a consistent approach to the problem, not to mention the wildly different cultural responses. Japan for example is a very interesting case as they reported their first Covids back in mid-January - and yet still only have 963 cases out of 127,000,000 people (and have never seen rises above double digits throughout the crisis so far - just 20 new ones were reported yesterday).

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...s-explosion-was-expected-in-japan-where-is-it

Finally, in my previous message, I related the story of my girlfriend who contracted Covid-19 during our holiday in Italy and made a swift and full recovery without infecting others around her. My personal situation now is that here in Malaysia (where I live and work), we have been placed in a virtual lockdown (officially called here a Restriction of Movement order) for 2 weeks. This effectively means that all except essential services/businesses are forced to close. This came about after a sudden spike of 190-150-110 cases over 3 days at the end of last week (we currently have just over 1,000 cases at 0.003% of the population).

Should this lockdown situation continue and be extended into the future, the effect on the company I work for will be catastrophic and will unquestionably end in salaries not being paid (I'd guess within another 2-3 months), enforced redundancies, repatriations etc. Even now, we have been instructed not to make new appointments or renew contracts, and this will affect direct colleagues of mine with families to support and bills to pay. I can survive this outcome, but the effect on our local staff - some earning less than £200 per month - will be horrendous. And for me, this is the real tragedy that is unfolding, and the thing that concerns me most when people talk of 3 month lockdowns for a disease that it is still only affecting fractions of the population (0.07% in Italy; 0.006% in the UK; 0.006% in China; 0.0008% in Japan). In my darkest moments, I can't help thinking that these days will seem like a tea party in comparison to the economic fall-outs we'll see if people and businesses are quarantined for months on end.

And so with that in mind, what actually is the endgame on this? Are we waiting for cases to reach zero before life gets back to normal? Are we waiting the months/years for a vaccine to be clinically tested and then be widely available for the 7.78 billion people living across the globe? Of course I don't have the answer for this, but I do wish there were some more indications from governments on what their long-term strategy actually is. That said, who'd want to be in their shoes right now?

I'm certain a Lincoln City message board isn't the ideal place for such a long and serious message like this, but I'm thankful this board is here to release such sentiments while I'm far away from home, as well as being populated with such a great mix of minds at times like this. Stay safe, healthy and well-informed guys, and let's hope we get to see some football again before too long.
 
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buckielugger

Vital 1st Team Regular
#29
Totally agree that comparing stats across countries is difficult as different methods could be used. And even within countries testing or not means the whole picture will be far from known.

But on the overall rough comparison of this virus vs commin flu, on your figures above, this virus is coming in at about 50 times more deadly.

Italian figures I read yesterday match exactly yours for current cases. There were also further 10,000 or so cases deemed as now all over. Of those 56% had survived as the outcome, 44% had died as outcome. I think that implied these were cases where treatment ensued, therefore the serious ones.

We will only know as each day goes by whether this will accelerate in populations into huge numbers or will peak at far lower numbers. Hopefully the latter but quite possibly the former.
 

Red Wimp

Vital Football Hero
#30
Looking at the Italian stats, they are running at around a 9% mortality rate, far higher than we were being advised earlier in this crisis.

Also, our daily deaths at each stage are matching Italy so so closely, but 14 days behind them.
So we seem very much on exactly the same path as them at the moment.

This could turn into a huge death toll there and here and who knows where else.

Naturally extremely worried myself and hoping Monday will be my last day of having to go into work. All dependent on IT guy sorting me out.

Really hard going to get my company to do anything on this. They are adamant that they have no legal requirement to do anything and that if anyone self isolates its entirely their own choice and they won't get paid a thing.
Sounds to me when feasible you should look for another company to work for
 

Riiiiik

Vital Squad Member
#31
Sounds to me when feasible you should look for another company to work for
I was going to post a similar comment.
I thought I worked for a poor company but at least they are taking Covid 19 seriously.
Anyone with any symptoms is encouraged to self isolate. The IT dept is setting our operating system up for home working and we're getting daily bulletings on the latest info. All meetings and foriegn travell have been halted for at least a month.
With an appetite like mine, I'm more worried we'll run out of food before I catch anything tho.
 

SalfordImp

Vital Football Legend
#32
I was going to post a similar comment.
I thought I worked for a poor company but at least they are taking Covid 19 seriously.
Anyone with any symptoms is encouraged to self isolate. The IT dept is setting our operating system up for home working and we're getting daily bulletings on the latest info. All meetings and foriegn travell have been halted for at least a month.
With an appetite like mine, I'm more worried we'll run out of food before I catch anything tho.
My company is the same plus allowing for up to 14 days sick to self isolate etc without a Dr's note.
 

buckielugger

Vital 1st Team Regular
#34
My company is the same plus allowing for up to 14 days sick to self isolate etc without a Dr's note.
Mine have said that only with actual medical advice will they pay any SSP for this and then for only up to 14 days, for a single time.

We all challenged them on this and all we got was they had legal advice and no law has been passed compelling them to do anything. Blinkered in the extreme.
 

NottyImp

Vital Football Legend
#35
Mine have said that only with actual medical advice will they pay any SSP for this and then for only up to 14 days, for a single time.

We all challenged them on this and all we got was they had legal advice and no law has been passed compelling them to do anything. Blinkered in the extreme.
The Chancellor's latest measures may help.
 

buckielugger

Vital 1st Team Regular
#36
Just seen that Sean Raggett has now got this virus. You would hope that him and his teammates will all come into the fit young and healthy category and get through this safely.
 

Sincilbanks

Vital 1st Team Regular
#39
I’ve been guilty of some bombastic comments since this virus situation first came to light - some of which I have come to regret, especially when you look at the desperate situation in Italy.

However, for those that remember my long rant on these boards a week or so ago, my primary worry was the analysis being done - in the mainstream media at least - on the statistics that are readily available, and their attendant effect on national and indeed international outlook and behaviour. Therefore, in the interests of balance and at least one alternative perspective, I thought some of these figures might be worth sharing (stats as of the morning of 21/3/20):

Current cases rated as serious/critical: 7,765 out of 172,641 - a rate of 4.5%

This serious/critical rate varies hugely among different countries:

Germany: TWO out of 19,600 (0.01%)
UK: 20 out of 3,741 (0.5%)
South Korea: 59 out of 6,085 (1%)
France: 1,297 out of 10,575 (12%)
Italy: 2,655 out of 37,860 (7%)

The mortality rate as things stand is 11,399 out of 275,952 cases (4%) although again there are major variations between individual countries, and of course major variations between different age groups and people with existing medical conditions.

All of these statistics are available at this website:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

As for flu, the respected John Hopkins University states that there is an estimated 1 billion cases worldwide in a year, with deaths anywhere between 291,000 and 646,000 - a rate of 0.07%.

It's probably fair to say that these numbers could never be 100% reliable in a worldwide context, not least because flu has never been under the statistical mircoscope that Covid-19 is now. However, taking their highest estimates for flu cases in the US, the rate comes out at 0.1% - clearly well below the current mortality rate for Covid-19.

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/hea...ronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu

What does all this mean? Goodness only knows... I'm not even sure the experts saying that the virus will have peaked in June/July or that 260,000 people will be infected in the UK have much certainty over the figures. What is clear is that there are massive variations and a lack of consistent statistical patterns around the world - maybe as a result of the lack of a consistent approach to the problem, not to mention the wildly different cultural responses. Japan for example is a very interesting case as they reported their first Covids back in mid-January - and yet still only have 963 cases out of 127,000,000 people (and have never seen rises above double digits throughout the crisis so far - just 20 new ones were reported yesterday).

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...s-explosion-was-expected-in-japan-where-is-it

Finally, in my previous message, I related the story of my girlfriend who contracted Covid-19 during our holiday in Italy and made a swift and full recovery without infecting others around her. My personal situation now is that here in Malaysia (where I live and work), we have been placed in a virtual lockdown (officially called here a Restriction of Movement order) for 2 weeks. This effectively means that all except essential services/businesses are forced to close. This came about after a sudden spike of 190-150-110 cases over 3 days at the end of last week (we currently have just over 1,000 cases at 0.003% of the population).

Should this lockdown situation continue and be extended into the future, the effect on the company I work for will be catastrophic and will unquestionably end in salaries not being paid (I'd guess within another 2-3 months), enforced redundancies, repatriations etc. Even now, we have been instructed not to make new appointments or renew contracts, and this will affect direct colleagues of mine with families to support and bills to pay. I can survive this outcome, but the effect on our local staff - some earning less than £200 per month - will be horrendous. And for me, this is the real tragedy that is unfolding, and the thing that concerns me most when people talk of 3 month lockdowns for a disease that it is still only affecting fractions of the population (0.07% in Italy; 0.006% in the UK; 0.006% in China; 0.0008% in Japan). In my darkest moments, I can't help thinking that these days will seem like a tea party in comparison to the economic fall-outs we'll see if people and businesses are quarantined for months on end.

And so with that in mind, what actually is the endgame on this? Are we waiting for cases to reach zero before life gets back to normal? Are we waiting the months/years for a vaccine to be clinically tested and then be widely available for the 7.78 billion people living across the globe? Of course I don't have the answer for this, but I do wish there were some more indications from governments on what their long-term strategy actually is. That said, who'd want to be in their shoes right now?

I'm certain a Lincoln City message board isn't the ideal place for such a long and serious message like this, but I'm thankful this board is here to release such sentiments while I'm far away from home, as well as being populated with such a great mix of minds at times like this. Stay safe, healthy and well-informed guys, and let's hope we get to see some football again before too long.
The long term strategy is to bring out the antibody test so those who have contracted the virus and survived can get back to their normal lives. In conjunction with this once the health service is deemed able to cope they will relax some restrictions and then reapply them so as to keep the new cases under levels under which the healthcare can cope, the so called "2nd and 3rd waves". This is the challenge China now faces. If we can do this successfully for 12-18 months then we will hopefully have a vaccine. If you haven't been watching Dr John Campbell on youtube then you should, he's absolutely on top of this and has been since January. As he says in the video I posted above "lets get serious"