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Covid, Phase II. Commonsense is the order of the day.

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Coronavirus latest news: Data shows three-tier system was working, Prof Carl Heneghan says



3 November 2020 • 8:33am


The government's three-tier system was effective in bringing down the number of coronavirus cases, an Oxford University professor has claimed.
Carl Heneghan, director of the university's Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, said cases in Liverpool, where the most severe restrictions were imposed, had been brought down by a half and that hospital admissions had "stabilised".
Professor Heneghan said new lockdown measures should be based on "actual data" rather than models that had shown to be wrong, after he described how one forecast of 4,000 deaths a day was "mathematically proven" to be incorrect.
He told the Today programme: "Many of the measures are working as intended."
From Thursday, new national restrictions will be imposed across England for four weeks after Boris Johnson said action was needed to prevent a "medical and moral disaster" for the NHS.
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I hate talking about things when I don't know the full picture, or the expertise in the relevant fields, but I will say that my gut feeling at the moment is that student and school populations are driving the spread way more than the experts are saying. The explosion of new cases at the beginning of the second wave coincided with the return of kids to school and students moving to their uni's.

I made the prediction back in mid September that a new lockdown would be implemented at the end of October. My new prediction is in 2-3weeks the Government will be forced to lockdown schools and uni's.

I work at a uni and we have done SO MUCH to put safety measures in place everywhere. For the most part it has been quiet and people are following the rules, but there are still a hell of a lot of students AND staff who show no signs of giving a crap about safety. People aren't distancing properly in large groups, people aren't always wearing masks or are wearing them around their chins or only on their mouths and there are people who still get confrontational about the measures because "they are paying good money to be here."

On top of this, as a father of a kid in secondary school and another in primary school, they are definitely not social distancing or being careful. My daughter (in secondary) complains that her friends are always trying to hug her and that they are only allowed to wear masks outside of lessons. The whole of year 9 is currently isolating and there were 30+ year 11's who had to isolate 2 weeks ago. My son (in primary) is not allowed to wear a mask AT ALL in school and there was the first case announced there yesterday but the school aren't saying what year group the kid is in and nobody has been asked to isolate.

I just find it so hard to accept that schools and uni's are being kept open with science supporting the decision. It just doesnt make any sense to me from first hand experience.
 
I hate talking about things when I don't know the full picture, or the expertise in the relevant fields, but I will say that my gut feeling at the moment is that student and school populations are driving the spread way more than the experts are saying. The explosion of new cases at the beginning of the second wave coincided with the return of kids to school and students moving to their uni's.

I made the prediction back in mid September that a new lockdown would be implemented at the end of October. My new prediction is in 2-3weeks the Government will be forced to lockdown schools and uni's.

I work at a uni and we have done SO MUCH to put safety measures in place everywhere. For the most part it has been quiet and people are following the rules, but there are still a hell of a lot of students AND staff who show no signs of giving a crap about safety. People aren't distancing properly in large groups, people aren't always wearing masks or are wearing them around their chins or only on their mouths and there are people who still get confrontational about the measures because "they are paying good money to be here."

On top of this, as a father of a kid in secondary school and another in primary school, they are definitely not social distancing or being careful. My daughter (in secondary) complains that her friends are always trying to hug her and that they are only allowed to wear masks outside of lessons. The whole of year 9 is currently isolating and there were 30+ year 11's who had to isolate 2 weeks ago. My son (in primary) is not allowed to wear a mask AT ALL in school and there was the first case announced there yesterday but the school aren't saying what year group the kid is in and nobody has been asked to isolate.

I just find it so hard to accept that schools and uni's are being kept open with science supporting the decision. It just doesnt make any sense to me from first hand experience.

The Uni decision was unquestionably a financial one (as so many Uni's are financially so poorly run), education was of secondary importance, but finding the balance between normality and our seriously deteriorating economy isn't easy.

Boris can't win, no matter what way he turns.
 
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I hate talking about things when I don't know the full picture, or the expertise in the relevant fields, but I will say that my gut feeling at the moment is that student and school populations are driving the spread way more than the experts are saying. The explosion of new cases at the beginning of the second wave coincided with the return of kids to school and students moving to their uni's.

I made the prediction back in mid September that a new lockdown would be implemented at the end of October. My new prediction is in 2-3weeks the Government will be forced to lockdown schools and uni's.

I work at a uni and we have done SO MUCH to put safety measures in place everywhere. For the most part it has been quiet and people are following the rules, but there are still a hell of a lot of students AND staff who show no signs of giving a crap about safety. People aren't distancing properly in large groups, people aren't always wearing masks or are wearing them around their chins or only on their mouths and there are people who still get confrontational about the measures because "they are paying good money to be here."

On top of this, as a father of a kid in secondary school and another in primary school, they are definitely not social distancing or being careful. My daughter (in secondary) complains that her friends are always trying to hug her and that they are only allowed to wear masks outside of lessons. The whole of year 9 is currently isolating and there were 30+ year 11's who had to isolate 2 weeks ago. My son (in primary) is not allowed to wear a mask AT ALL in school and there was the first case announced there yesterday but the school aren't saying what year group the kid is in and nobody has been asked to isolate.

I just find it so hard to accept that schools and uni's are being kept open with science supporting the decision. It just doesnt make any sense to me from first hand experience.
Matic mate, I do feel for you there regards your kids, its been many many years since my lot were at school, college, uni, 15 for the youngest, but luckily I have never been in the situation you/we find ourselves in now, so I can only comment as to what I would feel.

Keep your head and chin up mate, positive thinking is the way.
 
The Uni decision was unquestionably a financial one (as so many Uni's are are financially so poorly run), education was of secondary importance, but finding the balance between normality and our seriously deteriorating economy isn't easy.

Boris can't win, no matter what way he turns.
Yes ex, Boris is very much in a catch 22.
 
People are very reticent about labeling kids as "carriers", but unfortunately, as its been known since early on, they are in fact primarily asymptomatic carriers.

Main reason all the elderly people in nursing homes were the first to be massively affected in the US, because their grandkids came to visit them.

One study in the US determined that kids in the 10-12yr range could harbor as much as 5 times (<-could be 3 could be 10 but is a factor of some, dont recall the exact figure) the amoutn of active virus as an average adult.

Human behaviour, as well as denial & just plain idiocy, is the cause of this spread. Until we make the herculean effort to change it, it is what it is.

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Also, CLOSING the Universities here (spring Semester) int he US was also a major spreading event. All those young people carrying it home to the older family members.

Sending kids of any age to school under the current circumstances is just plain dumb.

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Models which projected that there could be 4,000 deaths a day at peak of a second wave were not intended to "scare people", the Government's Chief Scientific Adviser has insisted.
Speaking at the Science and Technology select committee this afternoon, Sir Patrick Vallance defended now controversial models presented at the pivotal press conference on Saturday.
"I don't think it is fair to say it is discredited," he said, in response to accusations that the data included was old.
But Sir Patrick did concede that, because there is a lag in key indicators, the models were not able to factor in all of the data about the new tiered system, which came into effect on October 14.
"These are scenarios put together on assumptions to look at what a reasonable worst-case scenario might be," he said, stressing that this is just one aspect of the data that has fed into the decision to introduce a second lockdown.
Prof Chris Whitty, England's Chief Medical Officer, added that the full effects of the tiers "won’t yet be feeding through fully into the numbers."
He told MPs tht there was evidence that tier 2 and tier 3 restrictions have had some effect to slow coronavirus transmission rates. Yet because R rates were above one everywhere and cases were doubling, there was not time to wait to see if the tiered system worked.
He added that "reaching the peak which we reached in April, strikes me as an entirely realistic situation".
 
The Uni decision was unquestionably a financial one (as so many Uni's are financially so poorly run), education was of secondary importance, but finding the balance between normality and our seriously deteriorating economy isn't easy.

Boris can't win, no matter what way he turns.

Absolutely. It's been obvious since summer that Uni's were going to start dropping off the map if another lockdown were to happen but where I think a mistake is being made is by not being transparent about it. By saying 'Universities have to stay open or they will go under so everyone involved need to be extra careful because students are driving the spread in University cities' I wonder if people would start to take it more seriously? Not only will people look at the health dangers but the incentive to stop the spread is that you will not lose all the money you have put into going to Uni so far.

I'm not a Boris fan in any way but I do fully appreciate that he is between a rock and a hard place. There are certain actions that he and the government have taken/not taken that are total head scratchers though.


Matic mate, I do feel for you there regards your kids, its been many many years since my lot were at school, college, uni, 15 for the youngest, but luckily I have never been in the situation you/we find ourselves in now, so I can only comment as to what I would feel.

Keep your head and chin up mate, positive thinking is the way.

Thanks mate. It's a very odd position to be in. We want our kids home. I'm at risk so getting this virus could be fatal to me and I keep thinking that the mental impact that would have on them long term would be a hell of a lot worse than a month from having to do home learning again.
 
Absolutely. It's been obvious since summer that Uni's were going to start dropping off the map if another lockdown were to happen but where I think a mistake is being made is by not being transparent about it. By saying 'Universities have to stay open or they will go under so everyone involved need to be extra careful because students are driving the spread in University cities' I wonder if people would start to take it more seriously? Not only will people look at the health dangers but the incentive to stop the spread is that you will not lose all the money you have put into going to Uni so far.

I'm not a Boris fan in any way but I do fully appreciate that he is between a rock and a hard place. There are certain actions that he and the government have taken/not taken that are total head scratchers though.




Thanks mate. It's a very odd position to be in. We want our kids home. I'm at risk so getting this virus could be fatal to me and I keep thinking that the mental impact that would have on them long term would be a hell of a lot worse than a month from having to do home learning again.
Hey Matic, head up mate, but so true regards "you getting the Virus and being fatal" the bloody affect/mental impact on your kids would be unsurmountable, guilt, missing Daddy etc, my heart goes out to you for the position you find yourself.

So keep safe n sound mate, be astute and careful.
 
'We've found it!' 'Origin' of pandemic exposed by scientists in coronavirus warning
CORONAVIRUS has impacted the lives of billions of people from all four corners of the globe, and scientists sent a chilling warning over what they believe to be its true origin during a new BBC documentary.
By Callum Hoare


Scientists are continuing to study the virus, in the hopes of producing a vaccine, but most experts now agree that it originated in bats and the first cases can be linked to a seafood market in Wuhan.
But, David Attenborough’s new BBC show ‘Extinction: The Facts' revealed why scientists believe humans may also be to blame for their relationship with nature.
Dr Peter Daszak, an expert on disease ecology at the EcoHealth Alliance, said: “We’ve seen an increasing rate of pandemic emergence.

“We’ve had swine flu, Sars, Ebola, and we’ve actually looked back over every emerging disease and said ‘where did it originate on the planet? And what are the things going on there that could have caused it?’

Dr-Peter-Daszak-an-expert-on-disease-ecology-at-the-EcoHealth-Alliance-2676680.jpg

Dr Peter Daszak, an expert on disease ecology at the EcoHealth Alliance (Image: BBC)
“We have found that we are behind every single pandemic, it’s the human impact on the environment that drives emerging diseases.”
Dr Dszak went on to detail the extent of the trade industry’s impact on a global level.
He added: “The wildlife trade is at unprecedented levels. We have huge markets with tens of thousands of live animals, shedding their viruses through faeces and urine, being killed in front of you.
“These are incredible places for viruses to spread. And we're connected to that trade through things like the fashion industry.
“We've seen this huge increase in the use of fur trims for winter jackets. And that means hundreds of thousands of animals are bred in fur farms.”

Professor Felicia Keesing, a disease ecologist from Bard College, explained how these infections can jump from animals to humans.
She said: “Animals have lots of different viruses that circulate inside their bodies, just like we do.

“And so one of the most obvious ways that we're making it more likely that a virus would jump is that we're having lots of contacts with animals.

“You have large densities of animals put in a situation with a lot of people.

“To make things worse, those animals are very stressed, and we know that animals that are stressed shed viruses at higher rates.”


Dr Daszak believes human’s interference in natural habitats plays a huge part in pandemic outbreaks.
He said: “What also drives emerging diseases is that we are encroaching further and further every day into wildlife habitat.
“31 percent of all emerging diseases have originated through the process of land-use change.
“Forests around the world, where there's a lot of biodiversity, have thousands of viruses that we've never come into contact with yet.
“The minute we build a road in there, we start getting exposed.

“The first people into those logging camps go out and hunt bushmeat and pick up the viruses. That's how HIV emerged.”
The expert continued, explaining how our consumption on these products also raises the risks.
Dr Daszak added: “Then we bring our livestock in. Viruses move from wildlife into livestock, into people.
“At every step of the process, we're bringing people closer in contact with wildlife and their viruses.
“It's easy to imagine that we're so far away from these diseases' origins that it's nothing to do with us.
“But we drive it, actually. Our consumption of beef drives this, our consumption of poultry, and the products that are used in poultry drives this. “

Prof Keesing then went on to detail why destroying the natural habitats could be leading to an increase in smaller animals like bats, which can carry and transfer the diseases.
She continued: “My research is showing that when humans convert habitat, there's also something else at play.
“It's not all species that are likely to make us sick.
“Often the best reservoirs for the pathogens that can jump to humans are smaller-bodied species, like rats and mice and certain kinds of bats.
“When we have intact natural systems with high biodiversity, these species are kept in check, but when humans destroy habitat, the large predators and herbivores disappear first.
“Which means the smaller-bodied species are the big winners. They proliferate wildly.
“They live at super high density and are the ones far more likely to make us sick.”
 
If you hav eany doubt about the impact of this shitty virus:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-54815268

This feels scarier than the first wave for some reason. First day of lockdown and nothing seems different in Portsmouth. Still loads of people out and about, our work building is busy and STILL people not wearing masks. Every day I see people walking up to the Covid testing site behind my work without a mask on and get told to put one on. This particular site is for people SHOWING symptoms.

I stand by my prediction that within 2-3 weeks even education is going to get lockdown because I do not see the infection rate getting lower if this is what a lockdown looks like this time.
 
This feels scarier than the first wave for some reason. First day of lockdown and nothing seems different in Portsmouth. Still loads of people out and about, our work building is busy and STILL people not wearing masks. Every day I see people walking up to the Covid testing site behind my work without a mask on and get told to put one on. This particular site is for people SHOWING symptoms.

I stand by my prediction that within 2-3 weeks even education is going to get lockdown because I do not see the infection rate getting lower if this is what a lockdown looks like this time.
Hey Matic don't let the even more numpties that our out there scare/get you down mate, just do your own thing safely.
 
This Mink thing in Denmark is concerning. The virus has mutated and passed from human to mink then back in a new form supposedly. Then I hear Spain slaughtered over 100,000 mink months ago when Covid was found in them. Why have we only just found out. What other animals can carry it, mutate it and pass it back ?
 
This Mink thing in Denmark is concerning. The virus has mutated and passed from human to mink then back in a new form supposedly. Then I hear Spain slaughtered over 100,000 mink months ago when Covid was found in them. Why have we only just found out. What other animals can carry it, mutate it and pass it back ?

This is EXACTLY why it is critical to contain these things at the very start. Once they're into the sub-society, they change, and sometimes become worse things.

Best to not let it find out what it's future holds. But again, the type of lockdown measures required are apparently too much infringement upon people's rights. So in exchange, we pay with dead people.

So far, these mutations are affecting its ability to "stick" as opposed to affecting the body in a more deadly grotesque way. Because this can, and does happen.

Would suck if a mutation starting causing people to uncontrollably bleed from their eyeballs.

Just sayin.

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Tbh I can't see case numbers being much different in four weeks. Today was no different to a week ago, wouldn't know there was a lockdown. Most little shops/garages tend to have a 50/50 split in people wearing masks. Secondary schools & colleges are going to keep the numbers up. Have zero faith in Boris or anything he says & does.... Text & trace etc isn't effective enough, needs to be localised and kept away from govt friends and family. Just totally uninspiring ineffective leadership
 
This Mink thing in Denmark is concerning. The virus has mutated and passed from human to mink then back in a new form supposedly. Then I hear Spain slaughtered over 100,000 mink months ago when Covid was found in them. Why have we only just found out. What other animals can carry it, mutate it and pass it back ?

I started to hear about the Mink thing, but in Holland, in about April/May time. I was just surprised that it never got picked up by the press.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...rms-triggering-culls-prevent-human-infections

This was 9th June. Coincidently, I got sent the Guardian thing today.....

“The worst-case scenario is that we would start off a new pandemic in Denmark. There’s a risk that this mutated virus is so different from the others that we’d have to put new things in a vaccine and therefore [the mutation] would slam us all in the whole world back to the start,” said Prof Kåre Mølbak, vaccine expert and director of infectious diseases at Denmark’s State Serum Institute (SSI).
 
I also think the partying that went on by the Brits last night before lockdown and bars shutting just showed how pathetic we are as a nation. The acceptance that it is OK just to spread the virus for one more big night is alarming when you think about it. I just wish we could tax those idiots more than those of us that follow the protocols.
 
I also think the partying that went on by the Brits last night before lockdown and bars shutting just showed how pathetic we are as a nation. The acceptance that it is OK just to spread the virus for one more big night is alarming when you think about it. I just wish we could tax those idiots more than those of us that follow the protocols.

Its getting to the point where fines are not enough. It should be an imprisonment offence depending on severity at blatant disregard for others.