Coronavirus | Page 66 | Vital Football

Coronavirus

Lies, damn lies and statistics and one thing which is evident in these weird times is you can find data to back up any stance you wish to take, from 'full herd' to 'full lockdown', but:-

On local NW news last night was a couple of charts on covid admissions and deaths in Liverpool and Manchester, over recent days. Both had steep climbs a couple of weeks ago, Liverpool higher; but both have dipped in the last few days, suggesting measures implemented end of September might be working even before the new measures take effect.

Although papers tooday are full of how Liverpool ICU beds are 'nearly full'.

As I say, lies, damn lies....
 
Hospital occupancy for Covid by day
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Critical Care bed occupancy for Covid by day
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As sure as night follows day a rise in cases results in a rise in hospital admissions

As for the North West you can look at hospital admissions for Covid here (and indeed compare all regions)
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statisti...20/10/COVID-19-daily-admissions-20201014.xlsx

You will see the North West and the North Easy are miles ahead in admitted cases compared to other regions in the last 10 days or so...

Of course the rules are still that you can't get a test without symptoms, so there isn't really any choice but to have lockdowns, it's the only weapon this government has due to it's breathtaking incompetence..
 
And here's how New Zealand conquered the virus
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30225-5/fulltext

Bolding mine..

New Zealand experienced one of the lowest cumulative case counts, incidence, and mortality among higher-income countries in its first wave of COVID-19 following early implementation and rapid escalation of national COVID-19 suppression strategiesNew Zealand effectively achieved control with progressive, risk-informed border closures reducing the burden of imported disease driving the epidemic. This was followed, only 15 days after first case confirmation, by a phase of rapid escalation of non-pharmaceutical interventions to national lockdown. This 10-day escalation phase had the highest average daily case infection rate during the study period. Within 2 weeks, lockdown was associated with a substantial reduction in daily case infection rate and improving response performance measures: the majority of cases were detected by contact tracing, and there were decreasing average times to case notification and isolation and increasing population testing with effective targeting of higher-risk groups.
Enhancements in response capacity also supported de-escalation decisions. The daily test positivity was less than 5% from March 29 (day 4 of lockdown), as recommended by WHO before easing of restrictions, and only 25 cases of asymptomatic infection were detected despite routine testing of asymptomatic contacts, population testing surveys targeting asymptomatic and high-risk groups, and high testing rates by phase 5. Moreover, despite full de-escalation to Alert Level 1 on June 9, New Zealand effectively eliminated COVID-19, as currently defined to very low numbers detected at border quarantine facilities for an extended period.

Furthermore, rapid suppression of community transmission limited overall disease disparities for populations most vulnerable to severe outcomes. Most cases were linked to imported cases, with predominant features of healthy travellers: younger adults, European ethnicity, and higher socioeconomic status. Locally acquired disease was less common, but tended to reach more vulnerable populations (ie, older people, ARC residents, and minority ethnic groups) and was associated with more severe outcomes. Female case predominance in this group probably relates to the settings where locally acquired outbreaks occurred, including a girls' school, and ARC facilities where residents and carers were more likely to be female, but is potentially influenced by testing bias. Higher female testing incidence might reflect female predominance in certain high-risk groups targeted for testing, such as health-care workers, which is also considered a potential reason for slight female case predominance described in England.

Higher male mortality reported overseas was not seen in New Zealandand although the crude OR for severe outcomes was slightly higher for males, this estimate was imprecise and did not persist after multivariable adjustment. In keeping with some international findings, children appeared to have had a lesser role in household transmission and outbreaks—even at a school—in New Zealand, despite intensive testing of asymptomatic contacts.However, with lower national testing rates in children, detection bias cannot be excluded
 
No You show me some evidence where fatalities are rising significantly,if you are such an expert.

I don't understand your comments at all.
It is straight fact that deaths are rising again and rising a lot, from single figures, to tens of deaths, to over 50, ovrer 70, over 100 and now 143 in last 24 hours.
You might notice the news has been covering an inquest into the bomb at Manchester Arena. A terrible act which killed 22 people.
You might recall our Bradford Fire. 56 people killed in that.
Liverpool fans spent over 30 years fighting for justice over the Hillsborough disaster. 96 people killed in that.
Well in just one day, we are now losing many more people than in any of those awful events.
And the coming days will see hundreds more killed.

So please don't write tripe.
 
I don't understand your comments at all.
It is straight fact that deaths are rising again and rising a lot, from single figures, to tens of deaths, to over 50, ovrer 70, over 100 and now 143 in last 24 hours.
You might notice the news has been covering an inquest into the bomb at Manchester Arena. A terrible act which killed 22 people.
You might recall our Bradford Fire. 56 people killed in that.
Liverpool fans spent over 30 years fighting for justice over the Hillsborough disaster. 96 people killed in that.
Well in just one day, we are now losing many more people than in any of those awful events.
And the coming days will see hundreds more killed.

So please don't write tripe.

This was said in the context of comparisons to the prevous peaks in the path of panademic fatalities in both the UK and Europe.I used France and Spain,but there does not appear to be any significant upsurge in Germany ,Italy and Sweden. The path is showing a similar pattern although judging when a cycle has peaked is not an exact science. Spains infections are on a downward trend,and the hope is the UK and France will follow shortly. It is my opinion the current cycle will get nowhere near the previous peaks. You,and others may think differently to this which is fair enough. The coming weeks will show this one way or another.


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Mad idea or not ?
What if entire planet of humans did a three week shutdown (with enough notice for people to get food in).
Absolutely everyone stays in their own houses (or if hospital people, stays at workplace). Basically no one meets anyone new for the period. No socialising. No school attendance. No one in any workplace unless on their own.
As close to that as possible.
Then, virus has no means of being transmitted and dies out.
 
Mad idea or not ?
What if entire planet of humans did a three week shutdown (with enough notice for people to get food in).
Absolutely everyone stays in their own houses (or if hospital people, stays at workplace). Basically no one meets anyone new for the period. No socialising. No school attendance. No one in any workplace unless on their own.
As close to that as possible.
Then, virus has no means of being transmitted and dies out.

In theory, yes. In practice virtually impossible. Plus, some people may be asymptomatic carriers who have the virus for far longer than 3 weeks. Typhoid Mary springs to mind.
 
Well UK daily hospitalisations are now over 10 times what they were in August and still rising, if the peak isn't going to get as high, it's because we are implementing lockdown earlier, and we are implementing lockdown earlier because we are testing far more...

The reason the "first wave" went away and the amount of deaths decreased as it did was lockdown, not some magic fairy dust sprinkled over the country...

It seems pretty obvious that left unchecked the cases and consequent hospitalisations would continue to rise at an exponential rate just like Spring.

Predicting a "much smaller" second wave after a local lockdown announcement is not being particularly prescient...

And I'm really not sure where you are getting Spanish cases are on a downward trend from, the weekly trend is nothing but up since the beginning of July
https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/es
 
Covid-denier: Lock-down doesn't help!
*cases fall during lock-down*
Covid-denier: Look, the virus is going away!
*lock-down eases, cases rise, new measures introduced*
Covid-denier: Look, the virus is going away again! Sweden! Sweden! Sweden!

Idiots.
 
Mad idea or not ?
What if entire planet of humans did a three week shutdown (with enough notice for people to get food in).
Absolutely everyone stays in their own houses (or if hospital people, stays at workplace). Basically no one meets anyone new for the period. No socialising. No school attendance. No one in any workplace unless on their own.
As close to that as possible.
Then, virus has no means of being transmitted and dies out.

If you test enough people and ensure those who are positive and their contacts isolate effectively you could kill this virus off in about 8 weeks.

It would need absolutely everyone to be tested every week, a working track and trace system that would definitely impinge on some level of personal freedom of privacy and everyone to adhere to isolation and quarantine restrictions, foreign travel to be restricted severely if not completely and anyone entering into the country to be quarantined for 14 days

But it could be done.

You would not need a lockdown then, *just* a massive nationwide organisation and ramping up of testing and tracing and the full co-operation of the population and it would probably all cost a lot less than the government has spent already...

But of course we can't rely on our government to come up with such a plan, never mind implement it, and we can't rely on a proportion of the population to put aside their selfish, stupid desire to do as they please and to hell with everyone else..
 
If you test enough people and ensure those who are positive and their contacts isolate effectively you could kill this virus off in about 8 weeks.

It would need absolutely everyone to be tested every week, a working track and trace system that would definitely impinge on some level of personal freedom of privacy and everyone to adhere to isolation and quarantine restrictions, foreign travel to be restricted severely if not completely and anyone entering into the country to be quarantined for 14 days

But it could be done.

You would not need a lockdown then, *just* a massive nationwide organisation and ramping up of testing and tracing and the full co-operation of the population and it would probably all cost a lot less than the government has spent already...

But of course we can't rely on our government to come up with such a plan, never mind implement it, and we can't rely on a proportion of the population to put aside their selfish, stupid desire to do as they please and to hell with everyone else..

Sums it up. Their ain't no "Dunkirk Spirit" in this country, anymore. We're America-lite with all that implies socially, economically and politically.
 
And the knock on effect for those waiting or worrying about their treatment plan non covid.

A well-prepared government who doesn't completely ignore the 2016 pandemic report takes that into account.

Hint: that isn't - ever - a right-wing government.
 
If you test enough people and ensure those who are positive and their contacts isolate effectively you could kill this virus off in about 8 weeks.

It would need absolutely everyone to be tested every week, a working track and trace system that would definitely impinge on some level of personal freedom of privacy and everyone to adhere to isolation and quarantine restrictions, foreign travel to be restricted severely if not completely and anyone entering into the country to be quarantined for 14 days

But it could be done.

You would not need a lockdown then, *just* a massive nationwide organisation and ramping up of testing and tracing and the full co-operation of the population and it would probably all cost a lot less than the government has spent already...

But of course we can't rely on our government to come up with such a plan, never mind implement it, and we can't rely on a proportion of the population to put aside their selfish, stupid desire to do as they please and to hell with everyone else..

It's a much smaller nation, but the Faroes have done tests equal to around three times their population. We'd have to do something like 200 million tests to equal their level!
Total control of all visitors too. Tested on arrival. Into quarantine. Tested a week later. If still clear, free to visit.
Result, zero covid deaths on the Faroes.
Isle of Man are being ultra strict too.
Likewise New Zealand.
Things can therefore be controlled with the right will to so do.
But we've had a government who have still done next to nothing regarding arrivals into the UK. So whatever people here do, more cases will keep being brought in (from Brits coming back from holidays and tourists coming here).
Still no travel restrictions within England.
Universities fully open and causing multiple thousands of new cases because, shock horror, students keep having parties and filling up bars and pubs.
And all the schools have been refilled. It may be that children seem relatively unaffected by the virus, but that doesn't stop them or the school staff passing the virus all around the schools and then back to all the hundreds of different families at the end of each day.
So combine an awful lot more mixing going on in society with a woeful track and trace system, and the rapidly rising cases is totally inevitable.
And just putting odd areas into further measures isn't going to help much. The extra measures are way short of what's needed (and what was recommended) and the areas picked are too few.
 
Bearing in mind it is not yet half term, my 14 year old granddaughter in Manchester was yesterday sent home for her second period of 14 day self isolation since the start of term, due to another pupil in her year group having tested positive (she doesn't know at this stage who, or how many are affected).