Championship survival | Page 2 | Vital Forums

Championship survival

#21
Ipswich yet to win at home all season. I watched the highlights against Bristol when the keeper literally threw the ball into the net twice to give Bristol the win. Lose to them and we might as well pack up and forfeit every away game from now until the end of the season. I reckon we’d still stay up on the last day on home games alone. :LOL:
He had a shocker against Forest too. We know whenever a player or club needs to break a bad sequence it's generally against us. I'm off to it so hope differently but I'll be having a few quid on a home victory.
 

king_dezeeuw06

Vital 1st Team Regular
#22
Though I suppose there's not much argument re the 6 pointers (even though we had the same issue last season - albeit at the other end of the league), surely the fact that our excellent home record balances out our poor away record should give you some confidence KDZ.
I suspect our home form wont be as strong in the second half of the season as we have lost that wonderful momentum that so often gives newly promoted teams a super charged start and we are no longer a suprise package or underestimated. I think our away form has become a real psychological barrier now and if we couldn't break it against such a bad Bolton side who were fed up from not being paid i am not sure when we will.

As for the 6 pointers this year when we've played teams in the relegation dog fight we've won 2, drawn 2 and lost 3. In the 2 we won we were clinging on at the end, the 2 draws we didn't test their keeper enough and the 3 loses we were awful. Those are the games that will define us and results and performances in them haven't been inspiring. It was the same last season too as we struggled to get 3 points off the teams around us but were clinical with every other team to make up for it. But at this level if we aren't getting the results in the 6 pointers then we will struggle to keep pulling out enough shock results against the better sides to make up for the 6 pointers.

I think we have a better side, capable of playing better football than at least 6 teams if not more at this level - survival shouldn't be that hard in theory. But the issue is the big performances came against the sides like West Brom, Bristol, Forest etc - sides who will finish above us while our worst displays have been against those relegation rivals we needed to beat. We are doing well at getting the bonus points but not doing our bread and butter and i fear that is what will drag us into a relegation battle we shouldn't be in.
 

Lazysid

Vital 1st Team Regular
#23
Ipswich & Bolton are near enough gone based on whats going on at both clubs.
Ipswich now up for sale at £35m plus a debt of £95m that wont be wrote off by the current owner.
Makes the purchase of our club and capital look an absolute bargain.
Not sure who the third club is likely to be - hope its Millwall.
We will be okay - not as high as I first predicted but will maintain a mid table finish.
 

moonay

Vital Football Hero
#24
The thing is KDZ, you could turn the views in your post on it's head, just like I suggested to MiW.:

I suspect our home form wont be as strong in the second half of the season ........................................ I think our away form has become a real psychological barrier now ....................
You're happy to suspect that our home form will change, but less happy to think that we'll turn the away form around!

Then, in your analysis, you mention........
............... In the 2 we won we were clinging on at the end, ................
........yet you forget to recall that in some of the games we've lost (not necessarily in the "6 pointers") we've lost to late (even last minute) goals.

Don't get me wrong. I understand the reasoning, but the pessimistic outlook surely needs to be balanced with at least a dash of optimism and recognition of the "if onlys".
 

hindleymonwafc

Vital 1st Team Regular
#27
On the subject of being safe early doors I think it was split about even in our Prem years....at least 4 of them we scrapped and somehow gloriously survived...on others we were safe very early ( 1st season and at least 1 under Brucie where we drifted off on a right shit run after being safe as houses) but which is better ?... it's a tough un the glory or the freewheeling cigar in gob feet up but playing like a bag of shit ?...who knows ?
 

C_Latic

Vital Squad Member
#28
Off the top of my head it was two seasons that we were comfortably safe in the Prem. The first season and Bruce’s second season. The rest of them saw us just about survive. Bruce miraculously got us safe before that United game in 2008, while Martinez’s first and last seasons saw us secure safety just before the last day thanks to our late winning runs. Then the other two seasons saw us survive on the last day.

It will forever piss me off to this day how we threw that game away against Swansea 4 days before the cup final. Had we won that, I’m convinced we’d have beaten Villa on the last day in what would have been a relegation playoff.
 

king_dezeeuw06

Vital 1st Team Regular
#29
The thing is KDZ, you could turn the views in your post on it's head, just like I suggested to MiW.:



You're happy to suspect that our home form will change, but less happy to think that we'll turn the away form around!

Then, in your analysis, you mention........

........yet you forget to recall that in some of the games we've lost (not necessarily in the "6 pointers") we've lost to late (even last minute) goals.

Don't get me wrong. I understand the reasoning, but the pessimistic outlook surely needs to be balanced with at least a dash of optimism and recognition of the "if onlys".
We've had 18 months to get a feel for this team / management strengths and weaknesses plus 20 odd games at this level to measure ourselves. At this point it's a judgement call based on what we've seen - a pessimistic prediction where away form and six pointer form don't drastically improve but home form drifts away a bit I think is more realistic than as positive one which would see us maintain our home record, turn around away form and for the first time start to perform top our best in the must win games.
 

moonay

Vital Football Hero
#30
..................- a pessimistic prediction where away form and six pointer form don't drastically improve but home form drifts away a bit I think is more realistic than as positive one which would see us maintain our home record, turn around away form and for the first time start to perform top our best in the must win games.
You miss my point KDZ. I don't think we'll maintain home form whilst turning around our away points tally.

I think it will be a mixture of both. We might not be as strong at home (so many wins on the trot), but at the same time, I doubt if we'll be as poor away (so many losses on the trot).

It's not an either or, but more likely, a bit of both. .......... I hope.
 
#31
Off the top of my head it was two seasons that we were comfortably safe in the Prem. The first season and Bruce’s second season. The rest of them saw us just about survive. Bruce miraculously got us safe before that United game in 2008, while Martinez’s first and last seasons saw us secure safety just before the last day thanks to our late winning runs. Then the other two seasons saw us survive on the last day.

It will forever piss me off to this day how we threw that game away against Swansea 4 days before the cup final. Had we won that, I’m convinced we’d have beaten Villa on the last day in what would have been a relegation playoff.
That game still gives me nightmares.
 

king_dezeeuw06

Vital 1st Team Regular
#32
You miss my point KDZ. I don't think we'll maintain home form whilst turning around our away points tally.

I think it will be a mixture of both. We might not be as strong at home (so many wins on the trot), but at the same time, I doubt if we'll be as poor away (so many losses on the trot).

It's not an either or, but more likely, a bit of both. .......... I hope.
The biggest issue is we just don't have the goal threat in us. A lot is made of the injuries but it's only been Massey and Jacobs out for a prolonged period with Grigg already back and Powell playing most games while the rest had been out. While having everyone fit certainlt helps i think absence has made the heart grow fonder unfortunately I suspect Grigg, Jacobs and Massey returns are not going to have as big an improvement as we'd hope on the results.

I am not sure any of our attacking players will hit 10 goals this season and not many will even get 5, so it's the lack of that cutting edge that gives me so much concern. We really need a good January and a goal scorer recruited to keep everyone below us at arms length.
 
#33
With Jacobs and Massey playing we were in cracking form and scoring goals in our first few games, when they were injured our attacking play changed because we had players who play a different type of game to those two, less direct, and hence the goals almost dried up. Those two back on the same form would see us back to the early season form.
Plus Powell has obviously been carrying an injury so a fully fit Powell would significantly improve our team.
 

king_dezeeuw06

Vital 1st Team Regular
#34
With Jacobs and Massey playing we were in cracking form and scoring goals in our first few games, when they were injured our attacking play changed because we had players who play a different type of game to those two, less direct, and hence the goals almost dried up. Those two back on the same form would see us back to the early season form.
Plus Powell has obviously been carrying an injury so a fully fit Powell would significantly improve our team.
Out attacking play went off the boil a little while before Jacobs was out and his personal form had already dipped quite a lot so with all due respect to Massey I don't think his absence alone completely derailed everything. Let's not forget for the great form Massey was in prior to being out, for much of last season he wasn't ripping up any trees. So I'm not sure how realistic it is for him to maintain that level of performance or return in that form.

I agree Powell hasn't been fully fit for a couple of months but played anyway and that is more damaging than the other injuries probably combined. But the issue is we are so reliant on Nick we keep bringing him back as soon as possible out of desperation and he's a shadow of his true self. I understand why we do it as even a 70% fit Powell has a potential moment of magic in him but I think overall we'd be much better giving him as much time he needs to get back to 100% as I feel playing him in a state of running repairs has become diminishing returns. Fair play to Powell for being so committed but he's not able to get up for headers and sprint like he did in the first part of the season when he was running the show. I cant see us affording Powell the luxury to get fully fit before he has to play again due to our lack of alternatives so i fear we may not see him in full flight again this season. And we can't rule out the chance he potentially leaves in January.

Having everyone back will obviously help but I don't think even when they are that we are going to see that same type of free flowing, free scoring attacking football immediately return. I think that was one of those where momentum of last year, the surprise factor of being the new boys, a almost fearless naivity (in a good way), a rarity of a 100% Powell and all players hitting top confidence and form at the same time was a perfect storm of factors to produce the magic.

I'd love it if we could find that mojo again and it to turn out to be the injuries alone preventing us showing that level of performance again but all things considered while we will be better for having everyone available I'm not expecting us to improve anywhere near as much as the heights we hit at the start of the season.
 

king_dezeeuw06

Vital 1st Team Regular
#35
Off the top of my head it was two seasons that we were comfortably safe in the Prem. The first season and Bruce’s second season. The rest of them saw us just about survive. Bruce miraculously got us safe before that United game in 2008, while Martinez’s first and last seasons saw us secure safety just before the last day thanks to our late winning runs. Then the other two seasons saw us survive on the last day.

It will forever piss me off to this day how we threw that game away against Swansea 4 days before the cup final. Had we won that, I’m convinced we’d have beaten Villa on the last day in what would have been a relegation playoff.
That Swansea game will live in the memory as being one of the most disgraceful performances we ever put on. Swansea had half their first team out injured and were playing for nothing while we should've been super charged for it considering that 3 points would've probably kept us up. That was unforgivable how we just weren't up for it given how much was at stake.

But I've got to be honest I think if we beat Swansea we wouldn't have won the cup. I think that disgrace prompted a big response from the lads in the cup final and made City take us even lighter as we looked so down and out. I said on the coach down to Wembley that morning we'd win as I just felt the Swansea result changed the physiology of the game. There's no way to test the theory but I genuinely believe if we beat Swansea we wouldve stayed up but lost in the cup final.
 
#36
Out attacking play went off the boil a little while before Jacobs was out and his personal form had already dipped quite a lot so with all due respect to Massey I don't think his absence alone completely derailed everything. Let's not forget for the great form Massey was in prior to being out, for much of last season he wasn't ripping up any trees. So I'm not sure how realistic it is for him to maintain that level of performance or return in that form.

I agree Powell hasn't been fully fit for a couple of months but played anyway and that is more damaging than the other injuries probably combined. But the issue is we are so reliant on Nick we keep bringing him back as soon as possible out of desperation and he's a shadow of his true self. I understand why we do it as even a 70% fit Powell has a potential moment of magic in him but I think overall we'd be much better giving him as much time he needs to get back to 100% as I feel playing him in a state of running repairs has become diminishing returns. Fair play to Powell for being so committed but he's not able to get up for headers and sprint like he did in the first part of the season when he was running the show. I cant see us affording Powell the luxury to get fully fit before he has to play again due to our lack of alternatives so i fear we may not see him in full flight again this season. And we can't rule out the chance he potentially leaves in January.

Having everyone back will obviously help but I don't think even when they are that we are going to see that same type of free flowing, free scoring attacking football immediately return. I think that was one of those where momentum of last year, the surprise factor of being the new boys, a almost fearless naivity (in a good way), a rarity of a 100% Powell and all players hitting top confidence and form at the same time was a perfect storm of factors to produce the magic.

I'd love it if we could find that mojo again and it to turn out to be the injuries alone preventing us showing that level of performance again but all things considered while we will be better for having everyone available I'm not expecting us to improve anywhere near as much as the heights we hit at the start of the season.
Are you telling Powell he is not playing ?
 

king_dezeeuw06

Vital 1st Team Regular
#38
While I'm not pleased to hear Powell will be missing a while i do think that will do him and us the world of good in the long run.

I'd much prefer to have no Powell for a month or two if it means we get him back to his early season peak for the last few months. A running repairs 70% Powell playing every game isn't going to turn the tables but him at 100% for half of those games would make a huge difference.

He's the best player in the Championship by a mile when he's fully fit so hopefully we wont rush him back and when we next see him he'll be back to his best running the show again.
 
#39
I said in my OP that I thought it was possible to get 5 points from the three games up to the halfway point in the season. This obviously wont happen now but I still think we are capable of getting a minimum 4 and possibly 6. Ipswich have not won at home all season but have managed a couple of draws, I would hope we could at least get a point from this game, it should be a certain three, but given our away form I take nothing for granted. Birmingham are not brilliant on the road and given our second half performance on Saturday and our performance against Blackburn I would say we are favourite to take all the points as we seem to enjoy playing against the teams above us. That would be a decent haul for the first half of the season and if we could replicate it in the second half then we would be in the top half of the table come the end of the season. Given that we should hopefully strengthen in the January window and get our injured players back I don't see that it should be a problem.
 

BrickLatic

Vital 1st Team Regular
#40
I said in my OP that I thought it was possible to get 5 points from the three games up to the halfway point in the season. This obviously wont happen now but I still think we are capable of getting a minimum 4 and possibly 6. Ipswich have not won at home all season but have managed a couple of draws, I would hope we could at least get a point from this game, it should be a certain three, but given our away form I take nothing for granted. Birmingham are not brilliant on the road and given our second half performance on Saturday and our performance against Blackburn I would say we are favourite to take all the points as we seem to enjoy playing against the teams above us. That would be a decent haul for the first half of the season and if we could replicate it in the second half then we would be in the top half of the table come the end of the season. Given that we should hopefully strengthen in the January window and get our injured players back I don't see that it should be a problem.
corect

i think that what cook does in jan will be key to how we see out the 2nd half of the seeson. he mustnt get all soft abuot leeving pleyers out who have been good squad pleyers anall. its time for some tuff management.