Feco
Vital Squad Member
Ahhh, so you don’t understand either....
Bit of Brexit info required.
- Thread starter Old Red Fart
- Start date
Ahhh, so you don’t understand either....
Bremen Tree
Vital 1st Team Regular
My take is that:
Bojo sees the opinion poll numbers, foresees a majority and will leave Brexit immediately either via a no deal or in the hope he can get his WB through.
Labour see the numbers and know they are in for a kicking but want to use the pretence of safeguarding jobs/rights by requesting no deal is completely ruled out thus limit the expected kicking. IMHO requesting no deal is off the table is in the best interests of the whole country
Lib/Dem have noted Labour poor opposition in this debacle and hope that disenfranchised remain Labour voters will come over to their side.
SNP, lord knows.
SNP think they can win all the seats in Scotland which gives them the right to a referendum. They couldn't care less about Brexit, as despite their stance only leaving the EU gives them the excuse to rerun the Independence Referendum. Maybe they will do a "Liberal Democrat" and say that if they get a majority that gives them the right just to leave anyhow. They are also hoping to catch the Labour Party at their weakest.
Bremen Tree
Vital 1st Team Regular
So they do care about Brexit if it is a vehicle to get independance.
in_the_top_one
Vital Football Legend
Here's what I think is going on. And I'm afraid it is rather pessimistic.
I think that the Lib Dems and SNP have given up on trying to get a people's vote since the clown brought his awful agreement back from the EU. They seem to have calculated that - despite everything - there still weren't the required numbers in the HoC for the most sensible course of action.
With that starting point they have both cast Labour adrift (far more attacks on them these days from LD and SNP in the run up to the election) and are simply trying to win as many seats as poss BEFORE Brexit. If Brexit is indeed now a given, then the LDs MUST have an election before it happens. After Brexit they are screwed, and facing annihilation, having had Stop Brexit as their flagship/only policy for so long. If they can have an election before Brexit, they will do extremely well - as they did in the EU elections - and have 5 years with lots of MPs in which to reinvent themselves before the following GE.
As by far the second biggest party, Labour's aim is to not be in power when the shit hits the fan. They, and everybody of sound mind, know that it will be hugely damaging and they will be there to mop up the mess and sweep to power for a long time if they can maintain the pretence that they would surely have delivered this, that, and every other thing if only they had been given the opportunity to negotiate their own deal.
The GE result will swing the HoC way over to the right and we will have years of disaster capitalism at our own expense. Leavers will have 'won' something, even though they still won't know what it is. Whatever it is, it won't be free trade deals around the world because we will absolutely inevitably have to do a deal with the EU in the very near future, which will come with strings that preserve the SM and prevent the worst excesses of the so-called free marketeers. God knows what will happen to the Union, but I suspect will will see a very serious attempt at Scottish independence that has an excellent chance of winning, and violence in Ireland.
Hooray.
I think that the Lib Dems and SNP have given up on trying to get a people's vote since the clown brought his awful agreement back from the EU. They seem to have calculated that - despite everything - there still weren't the required numbers in the HoC for the most sensible course of action.
With that starting point they have both cast Labour adrift (far more attacks on them these days from LD and SNP in the run up to the election) and are simply trying to win as many seats as poss BEFORE Brexit. If Brexit is indeed now a given, then the LDs MUST have an election before it happens. After Brexit they are screwed, and facing annihilation, having had Stop Brexit as their flagship/only policy for so long. If they can have an election before Brexit, they will do extremely well - as they did in the EU elections - and have 5 years with lots of MPs in which to reinvent themselves before the following GE.
As by far the second biggest party, Labour's aim is to not be in power when the shit hits the fan. They, and everybody of sound mind, know that it will be hugely damaging and they will be there to mop up the mess and sweep to power for a long time if they can maintain the pretence that they would surely have delivered this, that, and every other thing if only they had been given the opportunity to negotiate their own deal.
The GE result will swing the HoC way over to the right and we will have years of disaster capitalism at our own expense. Leavers will have 'won' something, even though they still won't know what it is. Whatever it is, it won't be free trade deals around the world because we will absolutely inevitably have to do a deal with the EU in the very near future, which will come with strings that preserve the SM and prevent the worst excesses of the so-called free marketeers. God knows what will happen to the Union, but I suspect will will see a very serious attempt at Scottish independence that has an excellent chance of winning, and violence in Ireland.
Hooray.
radfordinlondon
Vital Football Legend
Nearly agree, labour is split. Corbynistas genuinely believe they are on the verge of winning. By offering everyone everything, a leave deal and a referendum they think they will pick votes up from everywhere.
In reality we are quite possibly looking at a brexit/con coalition. Great deal depends on the LD imo. If they harness the remain vote then together with snp and labour they could have the no.s for a coalition. Only problem is they have the no.s now but cant work together to keep the tories out.
Sorry to say we either get that big lurch to the right or not a lot of change imo
Appalling to have a general election dominated by a single issue, even if it does affect the rest.
radfordinlondon
Vital Football Legend
One thing is for sure we are gonna find out a lot about who we are and where we stand as a nation.
in_the_top_one
Vital Football Legend
Yup, we'll have this will of the people crap for every single issue, even though people are largely voting over a single issue. So if everyone accepts we are voting over a single issue in this GE, why not have a referendum which is dedicated to that question? We all know why...
We wouldn't have this problem if the MPs had done what they said, honoured the referendum, and got us out. Leavers have now had to win a referendum, a general election in 2017, and now have to win a third time in order to get what we were promised over three years ago. You could even add in the win in the EU MEP election too.
Makes me laugh that the BBC interrupt the Tory MPs every other word, but allow Swinson to spout that the Liberals beat the Tories and the Labour Party in the EU election. Not one interviewer has pointed out to her that that may be factual, but they all got whupped by the Brexit Party. The Liberals were also the main instigators of the referendum in the first place.
Feco
Vital Squad Member
Leavers did such a good job of 'winning' the 2017 GE that the Government they elected has failed on five separate occasions to secure Brexit.
And before you go blaming others, just look at the numbers for the three meaningful votes that TM put forward to get Brexit done.
15th January 2019 1st Meaningful Vote
For 202
Against 402 118 Conservative MPs voted against the Government
12th March 2019 2nd Meaningful Vote
For 242
Against 391 75 Conservative MP's voted against the Government
29th March 2019 3rd Meaningful Vote
For 286
Against 344 34 Conservative MP's voted against the Government
Now if those Tory MP's ( and they include the current PM and most of his cabinet) had supported their Leader and the manifesto they stood for election on, then the numbers would have been such;
15th January 2019 1st Meaningful Vote
For 320
Against 284 Majority for Brexit of 36
12th March 2019 2nd Meaningful Vote
For 317
Against 316 Majority for Brexit of 1
29th March 2019 3rd Meaningful Vote
For 320
Against 310 Majority for Brexit of 10
The only reason Brexit hasn't happened is because the Tory party (including the ERG) the party the 'Leavers' chose couldn't get it done. Nothing to do with Labour, Lib Dems or anyone else.
So we now have another GE which in all likelihood will further divide Parliament, and offers no guarantee that deadlock will be broken. Then what?
I must say though that I am surprised that you 'winners' have chosen such a risky method to finally close Brexit out (assuming that's what BJ really wants). As you 'winners' are on such a roll, surely a straightforward yes/no referendum on BJ's deal would have been a much better and cleaner method. Yes we leave the EU on his deal. No we remain. Why are the 'winners' so scared of getting the job completed?
Remain was ruled out in the first vote. You just want a rerun of the Losers Vote. Remain lost. Let's have a referendum between The Deal v Clean Brexit. Either way we will still end up negotiating another deal, unless we want a clean break.
As with Soubry, we elected a government run by Remainers in "honouring the referendum" clothing . We were lied to by May, Hammond, Rudd etc. I voted for a government that I believed would deliver Brexit. Prior to the Corbyn marxist takeover, I've nearly always voted Labour.
Feco
Vital Squad Member
See above, as an former accountant I would have thought you understood basic maths.
A government was elected that did deliver a leave deal, Boris and his cohorts prevented this happening.
Leavers are the 'winners', why are you so scared of putting your deal back to the people?
Feco
Vital Squad Member
As a remainer I accepted TM's deal to leave. The leavers (ERG) didn't accept a deal to leave. What where they scared of? We could have been ex-EU members now but......
Now those leavers (ERG) have given us a bastardized version of TM's deal with NI calved off....alienating their only allies in Westminster.
What is a clean break? Are you suggesting we have no relationship with the EU at all?
Please explain, I would love to know what 'clean break' is.
in_the_top_one
Vital Football Legend
in_the_top_one
Vital Football Legend
Tumbleweed blowing through here these days.
All these Johnny Come Latelys over on the main page...
All these Johnny Come Latelys over on the main page...
Feco
Vital Squad Member
Tumbleweed blowing through here these days.
All these Johnny Come Latelys over on the main page...
yep.....poor old ORF
Old Red Fart
Vital Champions League
Agreed Feco, Im learning a bit more but it's bloody hard work !
Maybe it was just the label that was made in Britain.........!
