Bit of Brexit info required. | Page 103 | Vital Football

Bit of Brexit info required.

Thing is, whilst the ERG May have the 48 letters to trigger a no confidence vote, they have nowhere near enough MP’s to oust May.
They know that and so does May.
They trigger the vote and lose, May is safe for a year under Tory rules.

The stark choice for parliament now is the negotiated deal or no Brexit. May is closer to having the numbers for her deal, than the ERG are to getting rid of her.

A unity government is being considered if needed to get this over the line, a no deal will not happen.
Watch for the rhetoric to mellow over the next few days.
 
Feco said:
Thing is, whilst the ERG May have the 48 letters to trigger a no confidence vote, they have nowhere near enough MP’s to oust May.
They know that and so does May.
They trigger the vote and lose, May is safe for a year under Tory rules.

The stark choice for parliament now is the negotiated deal or no Brexit. May is closer to having the numbers for her deal, than the ERG are to getting rid of her.

A unity government is being considered if needed to get this over the line, a no deal will not happen.
Watch for the rhetoric to mellow over the next few days.
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You are talking some sense here Feco but even if May were to win she would be irreparably damaged if she only just got there. She might stay on for brexit purposes but would have to go pre election
 
toms said:
You are talking some sense here Feco but even if May were to win she would be irreparably damaged if she only just got there. She might stay on for brexit purposes but would have to go pre election
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I think she will go next spring in any case, The toll this will have taken on her personally by that time will be the deciding factor.
If this is delivered, then she carried out the task she set out to do. The next phase is for someone else. Gove?

It’s very interesting that within the Tories, there are a lot of members ‘wanting their party back’ as they put it. JRM and his cohorts are really marginalized now.

I think as ITTO said the other day Mrs May is very pragmatic, hard as bloody nails too.
 
Feco said:
I think she will go next spring in any case, The toll this will have taken on her personally by that time will be the deciding factor.
If this is delivered, then she carried out the task she set out to do. The next phase is for someone else. Gove?

It’s very interesting that within the Tories, there are a lot of members ‘wanting their party back’ as they put it. JRM and his cohorts are really marginalized now.

I think as ITTO said the other day Mrs May is very pragmatic, hard as bloody nails too.
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Sounds like Labour when momentum were just getting their claws in
 
So five cabinet members think they can persuade TM to re-negotiate some bits of the deal. As a previous PM used to say Is the lady for turning? Seems more likely we will get at least five more resignations in the near future.
 
Things are hotting up when we start to get decent info over here and the impression that comes across seems to be that Mrs May is giving too much away. And I don't know all the detail either so could be wrong. The impression that I get is that politics is beginning to play a biggish part in all this. Might be wrong of course and I hope I am. If your politics is anything like ours you're better off without them.
Is there a chance that it will all blow up ?
 
ORF there's every chance things will blow up. It's a bit like having a large rock placed on top of a five sided pyramid, deal, WTO, no Brexit, Norway or Canada. The five sides are far from equal, but the rock could go each way. At the moment May is so inflexible that the rock will take her out on the way down on four sides.

May has achieved the remarkable feat of coming up with a deal that upsets most people on both the Remain and Leave sides. She doesn't have a parliamentary majority, and already the ten DUP MP's who are supposed to support her have started voting against her party or abstaining in votes. If forty or fifty of her own MP's vote against the deal, it can only possibly get through if a large number of labour MPs break ranks, which seems unlikely.

On the other side some of the EU countries are saying they aren't happy either. Spain want the Gibraltar position clarifying, and France, Holland and Belgium aren't happy with the fishing statements.

Think the truth of the matter is no one has any idea what will happen, including TM and the EU !
 
ORF, it’s a done deal, what you have now is just political maneuvering to make a ‘story’. This has to be seen as being a hard fought battle on both sides.
In truth it’s been settled for quite a few weeks.
Time was needed to batter down the ERG.....that seems to have worked. That’s why we are were we are now.

This is only the Withdrawal Act, nothing more, future relationship discussions won’t start until this is implemented.
The UK will have a very different relationship with the EU moving forward, but if this deal gets passed, at least it will be a stable transition rather than the catastrophe JRM, Boris, Davis and Farage wanted.

Am I happy we are leaving? No I’m not, but given the circumstances I think this is the best option available, and it’s does give scope for future relationships with the EU to be progressive rather than antagonistic.

We can but hope.
 
Don't know how you can say it's a done deal. Even if the EU and TM are playing games she's still got to get it past the DUP, Labour and even her own MP's who say they put the UK Union ahead of even losing out on the Brexit they want.
 
What is the alternative?
No deal has been ruled out by everyone now, even the most ardent leavers, except the deluded halfwits of the ERG have accepted that it is not an option.
Nobody likes the proposed deal, even in the EU, but there are no other options available now.
Westminster will be interesting, expect a lot of abstentions from Labour, and not to much rebellion from the Tories. They can’t even drum up 48 letters........
Bottom line is nobody wants to be the cause of the economic catastrophe that would occur if the deal wasn’t passed. So it’s the current deal or no Brexit.

I would happily except no Brexit, but I don’t think that’s an option either, politically or legally.

So it’s the deal as put forward.......

By the way the French walked out of the talks today......such showboating!!
 
I must admit I don't pretend to understand the legalities - but then does anybody. May says we are legally obliged to pay the £39 billion and we are not negotiating that. Other people say we won't pay, so do we HAVE to ? Similarly as far as I understand we have already voted to leave, so if the deal is voted down, I assume we are then heading for No Deal. At this stage is the government obliged to do anything else? I guess the Labour Party would call for a vote of no confidence, but the Conservatives would presumably win as the DUP wouldn't want Corbyn.

May has said that no Brexit could happen, but she has NOT said that she would opt for that, so is it an option whilst she's PM?

According to Buzzfeed 80 Conservative MP's have publicly said they will vote against the deal. Will they ALL go back on what they've said?
 
I think that’s one thing we have all learnt, nobody fully understands all the legalities of this. Makes the referendum based on such such flimsy information, from both side, even more stupid.

It’s a bit of a paradox for the Tories, they won’t vote the PM out, yet they won’t support the deal??....it’s her deal, so by backing her in the confidence vote, they by definition must be agreeing with the deal??

No party will support no deal, I don’t think No Brexit is an option, doesn’t leave much else to work on.
I do think it will come down to abstentions though.

By the way the Germans have fell out with the French for falling out with us......the greatest show on earth!!
 
There is a decent piece in the guardian about how unlikely no brexit is now. Only the executive, can bring the necessary motion to stop it.
 
I think No Brexit is not an option. Whilst the referendum wasn’t binding, I believe that triggering Article 50 was, and that was a point of no return.
I know ITTO thinks differently, and he could very well be right, which brings Lienkings point about understanding the legalities of all this into focus. Something so central to the process and there isn’t a clear definition of what the legal position is.

I’m expecting an all nighter in Brussels on Sunday, with all the delegates appearing bleary eyed about 4am claiming the deal was completed. We have seen this so many times in discussions of this nature....proves you can fool people most of the time!!
 
I think the government attempted to block efforts (by the Scots but it could have been any of us) to get legal clarification. Hardly a sign of confidence.

The author of Article 50, Lord Kerr, says it can be unilaterally withdrawn. Even if it is a legal grey area then various eu state leaders have said they would welcome us back and forget it ever happened. They know that any form of brexit is damaging all round (albeit worst for us).
 
Feco said:
I think No Brexit is not an option. Whilst the referendum wasn’t binding, I believe that triggering Article 50 was, and that was a point of no return.
I know ITTO thinks differently, and he could very well be right, which brings Lienkings point about understanding the legalities of all this into focus. Something so central to the process and there isn’t a clear definition of what the legal position is.

I’m expecting an all nighter in Brussels on Sunday, with all the delegates appearing bleary eyed about 4am claiming the deal was completed. We have seen this so many times in discussions of this nature....proves you can fool people most of the time!!
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I don't expect any problems with TMs deal being agreed with the eu. Both sides will claim minor 11th hour victories to take back to their constituents. I agree that tgis is theatrics. Unfortunately for her, the EU agreeing to us being their colony is not her biggest hurdle.
 
Feco said:
No deal has been ruled out by everyone now, even the most ardent leavers, except the deluded halfwits of the ERG, have accepted that it is not an option.
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Judging by this thread you need to add Toms and Lienking to your list of those who still think that No Deal (wherever that means?) is a possibility.
 
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