Are We Scared...

[jokerman]

Do you get the impression that, generally, Russians are quite at ease about recent escalation ? Not asking for Vladimir btw.

If you read RT, they are saying over and over again, no plans to invade and we don’t know why the West is flipping out. You can read this as maskirovka, as screwing around, or as having overplayed their hand. We don’t know, but I’m starting to think Putin doesn’t know either. Not a good position for a poker player to be in.

 

[LancsGordoRoad]

If you read RT, they are saying over and over again, no plans to invade and we don’t know why the West is flipping out. You can read this as maskirovka, as screwing around, or as having overplayed their hand. We don’t know, but I’m starting to think Putin doesn’t know either. Not a good position for a poker player to be in.

Russia hasn`t camouflaged its build-up at the border and U.S. intelligence agencies appear to have cautioned (U.S.) state authorities over potential Russian cyber attacks. Has the U.S sufficiently "seen them and raised them" ? Problem is that they`re playing cards with a maverick. Nothing very conventional about Mr Putin, he must be quite a worry to plenty of people, including his own.

 

[PhilK66]

Do you get the impression that, generally, Russians are quite at ease about recent escalation ? Not asking for Vladimir btw.

Yes I do. I think Biden is viewed as a very weak USA President and Germany would block the ultimate economic sanction of excluding Russia from the SWIFT banking system because they are a major trading partner, the Nordstream pipeline notwithstanding!

Also, the West's response to the Crimea grab was pathetic. I suspect that Vladimir Vladimirivitch would not go for an out and out invasion but "respond to a plea for help" from a "persecuted" pro Russia faction in Eastern Ukraine.

It is a very difficult and worrying situation for Elena, who has made her life in Russia but comes from Nikolaev in Ukraine where her mother still lives. Any military action into Ukraine could easily spread to that town where, it has to be said, a majority of residents are pro Russia.

 

[LancsGordoRoad]

Yes I do. I think Biden is viewed as a very weak USA President and Germany would block the ultimate economic sanction of excluding Russia from the SWIFT banking system because they are a major trading partner, the Nordstream pipeline notwithstanding!

Also, the West's response to the Crimea grab was pathetic. I suspect that Vladimir Vladimirivitch would not go for an out and out invasion but "respond to a plea for help" from a "persecuted" pro Russia faction in Eastern Ukraine.

It is a very difficult and worrying situation for Elena, who has made her life in Russia but comes from Nikolaev in Ukraine where her mother still lives. Any military action into Ukraine could easily spread to that town where, it has to be said, a majority of residents are pro Russia.

Thanks, Phil. Very interesting to read your thoughts and concerns on the matter. Hopefully, peace, good sense and harmony will prevail.

 

[jokerman]

Russia hasn`t camouflaged its build-up at the border and U.S. intelligence agencies appear to have cautioned (U.S.) state authorities over potential Russian cyber attacks. Has the U.S sufficiently "seen them and raised them" ? Problem is that they`re playing cards with a maverick. Nothing very conventional about Mr Putin, he must be quite a worry to plenty of people, including his own.

I'm not an expert on these things, but military sources say the deployments are not operational ones -much more set up for show, and that they've not changed much for a month or so (except for Belarus). The buildup is on reporting in the West rather than on the ground. So you could read it as using the military to show how upset Russia is and how it wants its draft treaties taken seriously. But now the latter have been rejected out of hand, Russia has a problem. What do they do next-feel compelled to act, and in what way, or pray that high speed news cycles and diminished attention span let it all fade away?

I'm pretty sure that while everyone is still talking, even just yammering at each other, not much is going to happen. It's when things go quiet that it gets serious.

 

[shotshy]

I'm not an expert on these things, but military sources say the deployments are not operational ones -much more set up for show, and that they've not changed much for a month or so (except for Belarus). The buildup is on reporting in the West rather than on the ground. So you could read it as using the military to show how upset Russia is and how it wants its draft treaties taken seriously. But now the latter have been rejected out of hand, Russia has a problem. What do they do next-feel compelled to act, and in what way, or pray that high speed news cycles and diminished attention span let it all fade away?

I'm pretty sure that while everyone is still talking, even just yammering at each other, not much is going to happen. It's when things go quiet that it gets serious.

Like you Jokerman, I’m not an expert in this but my assessment as an outsider is that Putin is flexing his muscles to see how far the west will go in reaction.
The financial ramifications for Russia would be huge.

 

[jokerman]

Like you Jokerman, I’m not an expert in this but my assessment as an outsider is that Putin is flexing his muscles to see how far the west will go in reaction.
The financial ramifications for Russia would be huge.

I agree. I think people sometimes get fooled by their own propaganda,, though, -West's decline and softness, for example. Thinking like that originally may have got him into this mess. I'd expect a crabby backdown with some hybrid crap through the letterbox just to show he can't be ignored.

Just look at Russia's borders -not a real friend in sight, frozen disputes that keep it that way, and China sucking its former friends away while starting to see Russia as valuable the way North Korea is, rather than as a partner.

 

[LancsGordoRoad]

I'm not an expert on these things, but military sources say the deployments are not operational ones -much more set up for show, and that they've not changed much for a month or so (except for Belarus). The buildup is on reporting in the West rather than on the ground. So you could read it as using the military to show how upset Russia is and how it wants its draft treaties taken seriously. But now the latter have been rejected out of hand, Russia has a problem. What do they do next-feel compelled to act, and in what way, or pray that high speed news cycles and diminished attention span let it all fade away?

I'm pretty sure that while everyone is still talking, even just yammering at each other, not much is going to happen. It's when things go quiet that it gets serious.

Reassuring, cheers Jokerman.

 

[SurreyBOB]

I feel sorry for the Ukrainians who are descendants of the three and a half million unfortunates who were wilfully starved to death under Stalin in the 1930s. Or were invaded and died under Nazi occupation in the 1940s.

Maybe they'd like to live in a proper parliamentary democracy these days and make their own governmental choices. Putin is certainly not a good one.

Putin needs to be surrounded by states with kleptocratic dictators for his own self-validation. It's not about NATO expansion. He's snuffed out democracy in Russia and he needs Lukaschenkos on his borders to justify his own mode of rule. He can never relinquish power because he's stolen too much.

Ukrainians voted 91% for independence in 1991. Come on Vladimir. You may be a Remainer but respect the will of the people. Not every country with resident Russians wants a forcible Anschluss.

 

[markinkent]

Maybe NATO should stop expanding eastwards.

I'm not sure we'd be impressed if it was reversed and Russia started expanding westwards in terms of military treaties with our near neighbours

NATO is supposed to be about mutual defence not about expansion.

I say this as someone who earns a living from the defence industry as well.

 

[PhilK66]

NATO is an outmoded concept just as is the Warsaw Pact. Russia should have joined during the Boris Yeltsin era and then they could have rebranded the alliance and abolished the name NATO. Russia is an integral part of the European family of nations.

For cold warrior KGB people such as Putin the break-up of the Soviet Union was a defeat for which he is still trying to make amends for his own political purposes. My point was that it's democratic choice that matters rather than coercion when countries choose their political, economic and military alliances.

I am no Putin apologist but shortly after becoming president he proposed that Russia join NATO and was laughed at by the European leaders at the time. Opportunity lost. And like the proverbial elephant he has never forgotten.

 

[PhilK66]

I contacted some good friends of mine in Dnepropetrovsk in Ukraine , situated on the strategically important Dnipro River. Here is what they said:

"You are right, the situation is very dramatic if to take into account that Russians call us their brothers.
But the situation is absolutely different from that in 2014 when Ukraine was not ready to stand against more stronger enemy.

Now we have a very powerful army equipped with modern weapon. Also we are supported by our partners from Europe and USA.
European countries began to understand that if Russia comes to Ukraine they are the next to be invaded.

The majority of people here don't believe that the war starts. For Putin it is a great risk, for him personally as well as for the country as a whole. We hope he is not crazy."

 

[Jerryattrick]

I contacted some good friends of mine in Dnepropetrovsk in Ukraine , situated on the strategically important Dnipro River. Here is what they said:

"You are right, the situation is very dramatic if to take into account that Russians call us their brothers.
But the situation is absolutely different from that in 2014 when Ukraine was not ready to stand against more stronger enemy.

Now we have a very powerful army equipped with modern weapon. Also we are supported by our partners from Europe and USA.
European countries began to understand that if Russia comes to Ukraine they are the next to be invaded.

The majority of people here don't believe that the war starts. For Putin it is a great risk, for him personally as well as for the country as a whole. We hope he is not crazy."

interesting but why would russia invade any other european nation.

 

[Tarian]

Maybe NATO should stop expanding eastwards.

I'm not sure we'd be impressed if it was reversed and Russia started expanding westwards in terms of military treaties with our near neighbours

NATO is supposed to be about mutual defence not about expansion.

I say this as someone who earns a living from the defence industry as well.

"NATO should stop expanding eastwards." ???
That reads like old-fashioned invasion and take-over.

NATO "expands" by countries joining voluntarily.
Joining "clubs" with a specific and limited purpose is part of "sovereignty" and "independence"...
(...as long as there is an exit clause).

And with NATO, it isn't compulsory to do what its "Commission" says.
It operates by agreement.
So why should Ukraine not join .... if it so chooses ?

If Putin thinks that NATO would actually invade Russia, then his spies must be misinforming him.

 

[Tarian]

interesting but why would russia invade any other european nation.

Does Ukraine not count as "European" ?

 

[Jerryattrick]

Think mark is spot on with this one.

nato should not be pushing onto Russia's borders. Putin may be a maverick but so are the USA which is the worrying part of the equation.

Russias side is simple to understand (rightly or wrongly) they dont want to be bullied.

the US line is more subtle. when politicians are in trouble they create enemies and start wars. Biden and boris are having problems so deflections are needed. Nothing to do with appeasing or paying back your backers in the armaments machine.

even the ukraine president said that nothing different or new is going on. As we know from the first world war, build up of troops and posturing can end up in unintended consequences.

 

[valenciagill]

If Putin thinks that NATO would actually invade Russia, then his spies must be misinforming him.

There's no evidence to suggest he does.

They are worried about missiles on their borders.

 

[Jerryattrick]

Does Ukraine not count as "European" ?

you need to read the subject replied to lol. The post replied to stated the opinion about other European countries in the future. Not sure where i alluded to ukraine not being a European country.

pushing your military up against another country is never a good idea whether russia or the usa(nato). Same as us sending warships next to china lol.

 

[markinkent]

"NATO should stop expanding eastwards." ???
That reads like old-fashioned invasion and take-over.

NATO "expands" by countries joining voluntarily.
Joining "clubs" with a specific and limited purpose is part of "sovereignty" and "independence"...
(...as long as there is an exit clause).

And with NATO, it isn't compulsory to do what its "Commission" says.
It operates by agreement.
So why should Ukraine not join .... if it so chooses ?

If Putin thinks that NATO would actually invade Russia, then his spies must be misinforming him.

Roll reversal. Hypothetically Warsaw pact countries still existed as a political/military coalition. The Republic of Ireland looks to join

Are you comfortable with that ?

 

[jokerman]

Broadly speaking, to argue that wars occur as deflection strategies for politicians and to make money for arms industries is to mistake effects with causes. Wars do help politicians deflect and they do make lots of money for some people, but they are not why wars happen in any simple sense.

If we are going to talk power politics, spheres of influence and all that, why do we always argue that we should tread softly around them, rather than that they should tread softly around us? Let me pile on Russia here to make the point.

The Kaliningrad exclave is an insult to any concept of respecting power, stability and sensibilities. The very heart and soul Prussian Germany, and miles from Russia, it is stuffed full of nuclear and conventional weapons pointed at the whole of north central Europe and Scandinavia. It belongs to an era of Soviet power which no longer exists. Moscow should be presented with draft treaties by which it undertakes to neutralize the place and, in the meantime, Lithuanian, Polish, and German peacekeepers should be allowed in under a NATO mandate to set up a plebiscite over whether it returns to Germany, goes to Lithuania or Poland, or becomes the free state of the Memelland. We'll call it the "Crimea formula." And yes, it will be invited in the NATO and the EU.

As to invading Europe -the Baltics have to be a standing temptation. Estonia, especially, has it all -on Petersburg's doorstep (a "threat"), "captive" Russians living there, and it could be grabbed in the time it took me to type this.

With any luck, there is already tacit agreement that Ukraine is going nowhere soon. Indeed, I think one already existed, in which case, why did Putin lose his mind and issue an ultimatum for Nato to accept two lunatic draft treaties to be guaranteed by international law?

Time for a new partner in the Kremlin. This one's vision extends only to making sure that life in Russia's neighbours is worse than in Russia, and he can't even pull that. He's getting as daft as Trump and without the constraints which hobbled Donald's worst ideas.