cherryexile
Vital 1st Team Regular
OK, to help try and avoid the chaotic scenes after yesterday's game, I thought I would do some preemptive Maths to work out what the scenarios are for clinching the title on Saturday. As it stands the table looks like this,
Lincoln 84
Bury 74
Mansfield 73
MK Dons 72
No one else can overtake us. There are 12 points left to play for, so MK Dons can (mathematically) pip us on goal difference, Mansfield can finish a point above us and Bury can finish two points above us. So the different scenarios play out like this (remember, it doesn't matter about MK playing Mansfield as it is not about more than one team finishing above us, we have to be mathematically certain of finishing above all of them to become Champions).
Scenario 1 - Lincoln win
We are Champions. We would be on 87 points and the maximum available to Bury, Mansfield and MK would be 86, 85 and 84 respectively.
Scenario 2 - Lincoln draw
Here it becomes complicated. We would be on 85 points, so MK couldn't catch us, but if Bury or Mansfield won they could get 86 and 85 points respectively, so we wouldn't be Champions. If Bury and Mansfield do no better than draw then the maximum they could get would be 84 and 83 respectively, so we would be Champions.
Scenario 3 - Lincoln lose
In this case we would still be on 84 points, but there would be only 9 left to play for. If any one of the other 3 win, we cannot be Champions on Friday. However, if they draw the maximum they could get would be 84, 83 and 82 respectively. So neither Mansfield or MK Dons could catch us if they fail to win on Saturday, even if we lose. For us to lose and still be crowned Champions Bury would also have to lose and Mansfield and MK would have to fail to win.
To distil this into simple formulas, for Lincoln to be crowned Champions then,
a) Lincoln beat Carlisle - no one can stop us
b) Lincoln draw with Carlisle - Bury and Mansfield both have to fail to win
c) Lincoln lose to Carlisle - Bury must lose and Mansfield and MK Dons fail to win
Another way to think of it is, if we have no worse a result than Bury and Mansfield we are Champions, unless we lose in which case we would also need MK Dons to fail to win.
Lincoln 84
Bury 74
Mansfield 73
MK Dons 72
No one else can overtake us. There are 12 points left to play for, so MK Dons can (mathematically) pip us on goal difference, Mansfield can finish a point above us and Bury can finish two points above us. So the different scenarios play out like this (remember, it doesn't matter about MK playing Mansfield as it is not about more than one team finishing above us, we have to be mathematically certain of finishing above all of them to become Champions).
Scenario 1 - Lincoln win
We are Champions. We would be on 87 points and the maximum available to Bury, Mansfield and MK would be 86, 85 and 84 respectively.
Scenario 2 - Lincoln draw
Here it becomes complicated. We would be on 85 points, so MK couldn't catch us, but if Bury or Mansfield won they could get 86 and 85 points respectively, so we wouldn't be Champions. If Bury and Mansfield do no better than draw then the maximum they could get would be 84 and 83 respectively, so we would be Champions.
Scenario 3 - Lincoln lose
In this case we would still be on 84 points, but there would be only 9 left to play for. If any one of the other 3 win, we cannot be Champions on Friday. However, if they draw the maximum they could get would be 84, 83 and 82 respectively. So neither Mansfield or MK Dons could catch us if they fail to win on Saturday, even if we lose. For us to lose and still be crowned Champions Bury would also have to lose and Mansfield and MK would have to fail to win.
To distil this into simple formulas, for Lincoln to be crowned Champions then,
a) Lincoln beat Carlisle - no one can stop us
b) Lincoln draw with Carlisle - Bury and Mansfield both have to fail to win
c) Lincoln lose to Carlisle - Bury must lose and Mansfield and MK Dons fail to win
Another way to think of it is, if we have no worse a result than Bury and Mansfield we are Champions, unless we lose in which case we would also need MK Dons to fail to win.
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