What we need to clinch the title - a simple formula. | Vital Football

What we need to clinch the title - a simple formula.

cherryexile

cherryexile

Vital 1st Team Regular
OK, to help try and avoid the chaotic scenes after yesterday's game, I thought I would do some preemptive Maths to work out what the scenarios are for clinching the title on Saturday. As it stands the table looks like this,

Lincoln 84
Bury 74
Mansfield 73
MK Dons 72

No one else can overtake us. There are 12 points left to play for, so MK Dons can (mathematically) pip us on goal difference, Mansfield can finish a point above us and Bury can finish two points above us. So the different scenarios play out like this (remember, it doesn't matter about MK playing Mansfield as it is not about more than one team finishing above us, we have to be mathematically certain of finishing above all of them to become Champions).

Scenario 1 - Lincoln win

We are Champions. We would be on 87 points and the maximum available to Bury, Mansfield and MK would be 86, 85 and 84 respectively.

Scenario 2 - Lincoln draw

Here it becomes complicated. We would be on 85 points, so MK couldn't catch us, but if Bury or Mansfield won they could get 86 and 85 points respectively, so we wouldn't be Champions. If Bury and Mansfield do no better than draw then the maximum they could get would be 84 and 83 respectively, so we would be Champions.

Scenario 3 - Lincoln lose

In this case we would still be on 84 points, but there would be only 9 left to play for. If any one of the other 3 win, we cannot be Champions on Friday. However, if they draw the maximum they could get would be 84, 83 and 82 respectively. So neither Mansfield or MK Dons could catch us if they fail to win on Saturday, even if we lose. For us to lose and still be crowned Champions Bury would also have to lose and Mansfield and MK would have to fail to win.

To distil this into simple formulas, for Lincoln to be crowned Champions then,

a) Lincoln beat Carlisle - no one can stop us
b) Lincoln draw with Carlisle - Bury and Mansfield both have to fail to win
c) Lincoln lose to Carlisle - Bury must lose and Mansfield and MK Dons fail to win

Another way to think of it is, if we have no worse a result than Bury and Mansfield we are Champions, unless we lose in which case we would also need MK Dons to fail to win.
 
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cherryexile said:
OK, to help try and avoid the chaotic scenes after yesterday's game, I thought I would do some preemptive Maths to work out what the scenarios are for clinching the title on Saturday. As it stands the table looks like this,

Lincoln 84
Bury 74
Mansfield 73
MK Dons 72

No one else can overtake us. There are 12 points left to play for, so MK Dons can (mathematically) pip us on goal difference, Mansfield can finish a point above us and Bury can finish two points above us. So the different scenarios play out like this (remember, it doesn't matter about MK playing Mansfield as it is not about more than one team finishing above us, we have to be mathematically certain of finishing above all of them to become Champions).

Scenario 1 - Lincoln win

We are Champions. We would be on 87 points and the maximum available to Bury, Mansfield and MK would be 86, 85 and 84 respectively.

Scenario 2 - Lincoln draw

Here it becomes complicated. We would be on 85 points, so MK couldn't catch us, but if Bury or Mansfield won they could get 86 and 85 points respectively, so we wouldn't be Champions. If Bury and Mansfield do no better than draw then the maximum they could get would be 84 and 83 respectively, so we would be Champions.

Scenario 3 - Lincoln lose

In this case we would still be on 84 points, but there would be only 9 left to play for. If any one of the other 3 win, we cannot be Champions on Saturday. However, if they draw the maximum they could get would be 84, 83 and 82 respectively. So neither Mansfield or MK Dons could catch us if they fail to win on Saturday, even if we lose. For us to lose and still be crowned Champions Bury would also have to lose and Mansfield and MK would have to fail to win.

To distil this into simple formulas, for Lincoln to be crowned Champions then,

a) Lincoln beat Carlisle - no one can stop us
b) Lincoln draw with Carlisle - Bury and Mansfield both have to fail to win
c) Lincoln lose to Carlisle - Bury must lose and Mansfield and MK Dons fail to win

Another way to think of it is, if we have no worse a result than Bury and Mansfield we are Champions, unless we lose in which case we would also need MK Dons to fail to win.
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Excellent summary.


You might want to check your thread title though.....

Come on you Imps!!!!!!!!©
 
It is actually very straightforward: a win definitely wins it, but we are champions if we simply match the best result from Bury, MK and Mansfield. That includes losing.

If Bury, Mansfield or MK lose one more game, they can't catch us.

Carlisle v Lincoln
Mansfield v Morecambe
Newport v Bury
Notts County v MK

A win for Morecambe puts them mathematically safe, and a draw probably does, so they have lots to play for. County are pretty much in last chance saloon and really need something from MK. Newport are on a good run and could still make the play-offs despite their horrible goal difference.
 
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cherryexile said:
OK, to help try and avoid the chaotic scenes after yesterday's game, I thought I would do some preemptive Maths to work out what the scenarios are for clinching the title on Saturday. As it stands the table looks like this,

Lincoln 84
Bury 74
Mansfield 73
MK Dons 72

No one else can overtake us. There are 12 points left to play for, so MK Dons can (mathematically) pip us on goal difference, Mansfield can finish a point above us and Bury can finish two points above us. So the different scenarios play out like this (remember, it doesn't matter about MK playing Mansfield as it is not about more than one team finishing above us, we have to be mathematically certain of finishing above all of them to become Champions).

Scenario 1 - Lincoln win

We are Champions. We would be on 87 points and the maximum available to Bury, Mansfield and MK would be 86, 85 and 84 respectively.

Scenario 2 - Lincoln draw

Here it becomes complicated. We would be on 85 points, so MK couldn't catch us, but if Bury or Mansfield won they could get 86 and 85 points respectively, so we wouldn't be Champions. If Bury and Mansfield do no better than draw then the maximum they could get would be 84 and 83 respectively, so we would be Champions.

Scenario 3 - Lincoln lose

In this case we would still be on 84 points, but there would be only 9 left to play for. If any one of the other 3 win, we cannot be Champions on Saturday. However, if they draw the maximum they could get would be 84, 83 and 82 respectively. So neither Mansfield or MK Dons could catch us if they fail to win on Saturday, even if we lose. For us to lose and still be crowned Champions Bury would also have to lose and Mansfield and MK would have to fail to win.

To distil this into simple formulas, for Lincoln to be crowned Champions then,

a) Lincoln beat Carlisle - no one can stop us
b) Lincoln draw with Carlisle - Bury and Mansfield both have to fail to win
c) Lincoln lose to Carlisle - Bury must lose and Mansfield and MK Dons fail to win

Another way to think of it is, if we have no worse a result than Bury and Mansfield we are Champions, unless we lose in which case we would also need MK Dons to fail to win.
Click to expand...
forward a copy to @michaelhortin ))
 
Barney Imp said:
Excellent summary.


You might want to check your thread title though.....

Come on you Imps!!!!!!!!©
Click to expand...

Yes. It should have read clinch the title, or the Championship, not promotion. I am not even sure that I can alter it now. Oh well, as long as you all get the point (about what is needed, not about my stupidity).
 
cherryexile said:
Yes. It should have read clinch the title, or the Championship, not promotion. I am not even sure that I can alter it now. Oh well, as long as you all get the point (about what is needed, not about my stupidity).
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Also note, we are playing Carlisle on Friday, not Saturday.

"If any one of the other 3 win, we cannot be Champions on Saturday."
 
I hope we draw on Friday (keep our unbeaten run going) and win on Monday! Imagine being able to lift the trophy in front of a sell out Easter Monday crowd at Sincil Bank!

*This also gives me the chance to make amends for up and walking out on Saturday (like an oblivious pleb/plonker) I can cheer double loud!
 
Niqlous said:
I hope we draw on Friday (keep our unbeaten run going) and win on Monday! Imagine being able to lift the trophy in front of a sell out Easter Monday crowd at Sincil Bank!

*This also gives me the chance to make amends for up and walking out on Saturday (like an oblivious pleb/plonker) I can cheer double loud!
Click to expand...

You didn't lead the exodus out did you ?
 
And incidentally, should we achieve the title, will it trophy be presented at Carlisle if it happens on Friday, or at home to Tranmere if it happens either on Friday or Easter Monday?
Or will it be presented at final home game, whenever it may happen?
 
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