The Brexit conundrum | Page 6 | Vital Football

The Brexit conundrum

I was listening to the French finance minister on Today on Radio 4 on Tuesday morning and was left wondering what sort of influence individual nations have with the EU negotiating team.

In a nutshell, he was saying the exact same thing as the British Government on the kind of deal required by both sides. That is a full, and fair zero tariff trade agreement.

Nick Robinson also pointed out how heavily reliant that most EU countries are on the City of London for raising finance (1.4 trillion in 2015 alone) and the finance minister openly admitted that this was the case.
He certainly wasn't ruling out any kind of compromise on financial services.

He seemed quite taken aback that much of the EU leverage has gone due to the UK not wanting what was on offer.
Single market - don't want it.
Customs Union - don't want it.
Financial passporting - don't want it.

As I said, when it gets down to the nitty gritty of trade talks, will some countries break ranks to suit their own agenda?
Will the 27 be as unified when it comes down to hard cash?

https://www.politico.eu/article/forget-the-cliff-edge-brexit-faces-an-abyss/

On reading this and Tusk's comments, it seems that the EU are looking for a cake and eat it syndrome as well.

Anyone for a bit of 'cherry picking' ?
 
Many Brexiteers forget that it's the UK leaving the EU and not the other way around. What the EU is objecting to is that, by reference to the referendum, the UK has invoked Article 50 but, rather than have a clean break, which is what some people are advocating, the Govt. realises that many businesses and the City financial centre will suffer immensely unless they keep the 'good' parts of the EU system, which is what the EU is objecting to.

To me, it's still a mystery why anyone should've voted 'leave' especially as our markets outside the EU are expanding; plus, we have the EU clout to protect us when things go awry - such as the steel crisis a while back.
 
The Commons Brexit committee has now published the full 29 page official internal Brexit Impact study that was leaked to Sky and others recently. Just Google it and see if you can find anyone saying they found anything in it to indicate a positive outlook for a post Brexit UK. I couldn't.
 
There is absolutely no evidence that the EU negotiating team is doing anything other than reflecting the views of the 27. Their latest document on trade followed a meeting of their ministers only a few days ago. Statements about a desire for free trade is more about countries hoping that the UK might come to its senses on remaining in the Customs Union and the Single Market than suggesting that a comprehensive deal will be available outside of these. It's still all about the EU protecting the single market. If you could get all the benefits of the EU without having the obligations of being a member, why would you want to be a member ? It's not exactly rocket science is it ?
 
Vambogills - 8/3/2018 16:46

The Commons Brexit committee has now published the full 29 page official internal Brexit Impact study that was leaked to Sky and others recently. Just Google it and see if you can find anyone saying they found anything in it to indicate a positive outlook for a post Brexit UK. I couldn't.
Click to expand...


Vambo, you don't get it do you. The Civil Service are all Remoaners so they are pretending that it is going to be worse. On top of that, they are experts so they must be wrong. Now come on Vambo, get with it. We are on our way to heaven.
:11:

For the truth, read the Sun or DM. You can also find the truth on the Internet according to "Right Winger". I'm sure you can find something positive there. Cheer up old chap.
 
This is all very good for the media but at the end of the day this is a negotiation and nobody knows what the end game will be.
The way the eu negotiate is that all deals go literally to the wire with most agreements coming on the last minutes of the last day.
 
I expect (and hope) some kind of deal will be done. My biggest concern is that the fanatics on the right of the Tory party may get their own way and have no deal. It seems that their ideaology demands a total break.

I expect us to be worse off whatever, but a total break would surely be reckless.
 
SurreyBOB - 8/3/2018 16:08

We are not supplicants. We just need to hold out for a deal until common sense prevails.

The EU has larger potential problems. Both the left and right-wing populist parties in Italy in last weekend's election (aggregate vote 50%) were standing on a ticket to amend the Italian constitution to deny the Union legal supremacy over Italian laws (my Brexit argument here for 24 months).

Fot the want of a bit of compromise the Union are risking tearing Europe apart politically and it would be detrimental to everyone's interests if that happens.
Click to expand...
If the Italians are heading out of the EU and it is a big if .The first thing that I would say is run a mile from anything the Italians do .Italy outside the EU would he a total shambles .If they were to pull out I am sure the other EU countries would be delighted .
 
Therealwaldo - 8/3/2018 17:00

There is absolutely no evidence that the EU negotiating team is doing anything other than reflecting the views of the 27. Their latest document on trade followed a meeting of their ministers only a few days ago. Statements about a desire for free trade is more about countries hoping that the UK might come to its senses on remaining in the Customs Union and the Single Market than suggesting that a comprehensive deal will be available outside of these. It's still all about the EU protecting the single market. If you could get all the benefits of the EU without having the obligations of being a member, why would you want to be a member ? It's not exactly rocket science is it ?
Click to expand...

you are right waldo.
Paragraph 13 stated that the EU hoped that the UK would stay in the single market and customs union to solve any potential Irish border problem.
The fact that May has said continuously that we will not be staying in such bodies seems lost on them.
The French finance minister said on Tuesday, " at last we have clarity on what the UK is doing" Nick Robinson respectfully pointed out that this has been the UK's intention since the Lancaster House speech and reiterated in Florence.
The guy then replied something like, 'we didn't really think that the UK would go through with it'

So, now thy have come to terms with the actual reality of the situation I expect that they may soften their approach and start to be a bit more grown up about things.

Everybody who voted to leave the EU voted for change.
One cannot vote for change and then expect everything to remain the same and I don't think any rational person would expect it to be.

From my point of view, the UK has always been a bit outside of the political project. They can now continue on the road to a federal EU and we can plough our own furrow.

Nearly all the talk is about trade a very little about the real point of the EU, which is political union and ultimately a federal united states of Europe. Of that, there can be no dispute.
 
The most important part of our exit has to be the people ,security and companies are not damaged as a result .Some of our companies will be damaged .Security is already proved to be very international .That has to be as secure as it can be .That can only be so by working with others in all parts of the world .The migrated workers already here have to be welcomed .Long term that should be a very important part of any agreement .The same for our nationals living in other parts of Europe .No time limits and no discrimination .
 
shotshy - 8/3/2018 21:33
Nearly all the talk is about trade a very little about the real point of the EU, which is political union and ultimately a federal united states of Europe. Of that, there can be no dispute.
Click to expand...

I actually agree with you there, up to a point. In the UK, the discussion is entirely about trade and the economy, and what it means in monetary terms.

In most of the rest of Europe, the EU is about much more than that: it's not just about trading, but about cultural cooperation, about the ability to travel freely and, not least, about not having wars with each other. The idea is a convergence of ideas and values.

The key word here though is "federal". I get the impression that in the UK it has a different meaning to elsewhere. Due to the relentless work of the press, and the American use of "federal" as shorthand for "national", it's understood as working towards unification, homogenisation and central control from Brussels. But that's actually the opposite of what it means in Europe.

There's a reason why it's called the Federal Republic of Germany, for example, The country consists of sixteen states, operating in a federation, but all with hugely devolved authority, much like the states in America. Central control (like what we have in the UK from London) is precisely what federalism doesn't mean. It means independent states working with a common goal but with independent powers. This has been deliberately misconstrued by the British press and politicians.

And to repeat what people have been saying above, Britain is certainly not dictating the terms. Sure, continental Europe will lose some trade, but that's nothing to what would be lost if the EU project failed, which is what would happen if they let one country enjoy the benefits without having any of the obligations. The EU's main goal now is to avoid contagion. With its rebate and opt-outs, Britain was already massively privileged compared to the other countries. If you leave the club and stop paying your subs, you're out. Any privileges the club may choose to offer you afterwards are a bonus, not a right.

If you storm out of the house, stick two fingers up at your best friends and do a massive shit on their doorstep, how much goodwill do you think you are going to get?
 
Alderman Barnes - 8/3/2018 21:18

With its rebate and opt-outs, Britain was already massively privileged compared to the other countries. If you leave the club and stop paying your subs, you're out. Any privileges the club may choose to offer you afterwards are a bonus, not a right.

If you storm out of the house, stick two fingers up at your best friends and do a massive shit on their doorstep, how much goodwill do you think you are going to get?
Click to expand...

Massively privileged? How so? The following link gives you an idea of the UK contributions and rebates as at 2016. Contributions of 17 billion against rebates of 4 billion:
https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/

The reaction of the other member states to the prospects of having to fill the hole left by the loss of our contributions are summarised in the following link that includes the sub headline "The UK is one of the main contributors to the EU budget":
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/27/european-union-uk-important-brexit.html

The cow is not doing a shit on the doorstop. She is just politely refusing to continue to be milked.
 
The UK is a net contributor because it is richer than the average EU country. Just the same as someone on 100K a year pays more tax than someone on 20K a year. However, both of those people benefit from the infrastructure and services to an amount that outweighs the tax that paid for it. In the same way, the economies of both the rich country and the poor country benefit from the advantages of a free and standardised trading area to an amount which much exceeds the initial financial input. If nobody pays their dues, both the rich and the poor get poorer.

As for the second link, I've already addressed that. The EU will take a hit, but that's nothing compared to the hit that it would take if it fucked the whole thing up by allowing Britain to get away with it.
 
The proof of the pudding will be in the next decade or so. We shall see if the US and the UK have collectively lost their Anglo-Saxon minds and have crashed their respective cars, or if they are out ahead of the rest of the world in responding to the big changes which are taking place in it.


 
You could be right, but the rivets seem to be popping out all over the hull right now, which suggests that trying to keep things as they are/were is not a viable course of action.
Trump's duties
Draghi's no more whatever it takes
Italy?


Not to worry. Once Xi Da Da gets his job for life deal, all will be well. Learning Mandarin will be a real headache though.
 
Bluenose: you seem to forget that the benefit to this country of intra-EU trade far, far outweighs the net cost of contributions.
 
Alderman, excellent posts as ever. The problem with your points is that they are too complex for the average voter. The budget argument is counterintuitive. People can't understand that in spite of being a net contributor to a club, one can end up better off by being a member.

It's a bit like Keynes' "digging holes".

Add a dose of misguided nationalism and we have done the proverbial on our own doorstep.
 
The attached article from The Guardian says exactly why an agreement will be reached

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/08/customs-checks-will-cause-huge-tailbacks-warns-calais-port-boss

Once the posturing and chest beating is over and the EU team come to terms with the fact that the UK is really leaving, then the real work will begin.

I fully appreciate Alderman Barnes's position as he thinks that our leaving the UK could negatively impact on his personal arrangements, but ultimately life is about choices.
He has chosen to live and work in a foreign country but unfortunately for him, the majority of British voters (who bothered to vote) decided to leave the EU.
There is nothing as constant as change.


 
You must log in or register to reply here.