The Brexit conundrum | Page 7 | Vital Football

The Brexit conundrum

We'll all be worse of due mainly to the fact that, in the short, medium or even long term, personal and corporate revenues will recede and the tax take [income tax and VAT] will diminish proportionately, which will have a knock on effect on the NHS and Education; they're just two examples.
 
Says you Wayne.Kerr

Opinion stated as fact has no basis for rational argument.

I recall you saying pre referendum that a vote to leave would cause a massive and immediate recession.
I recall DurhamGill saying that he would immediately have to lay off 10% of his staff if it was a vote to leave. Has he? If so, it's eff all to do with Brexit.
I recall Osbourne saying there would be a punishment budget and an immediate hike in unemployment. Well, that was true, wasn't it?
I recall Christine LeGarde saying there would be immediate massive inflation and a massive drop in GDP.
Let's all be a bit honest and say that nobody really knows what the future holds, do they?
 
shotshy - 9/3/2018 10:36

Says you Wayne.Kerr

Opinion stated as fact has no basis for rational argument.

I recall you saying pre referendum that a vote to leave would cause a massive and immediate recession.
I recall DurhamGill saying that he would immediately have to lay off 10% of his staff if it was a vote to leave. Has he? If so, it's eff all to do with Brexit.
I recall Osbourne saying there would be a punishment budget and an immediate hike in unemployment. Well, that was true, wasn't it?
I recall Christine LeGarde saying there would be immediate massive inflation and a massive drop in GDP.
Let's all be a bit honest and say that nobody really knows what the future holds, do they?
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Shotsy - BREXIT HASN'T ACTUALLY HAPPENED YET!!!
 
shotshy - the most detailed, up to date and unbiased forecasts we have are from the Governments own Department for leaving the EU. They are awful.
 
Arthurly - 9/3/2018 12:19

shotshy - the most detailed, up to date and unbiased forecasts we have are from the Governments own Department for leaving the EU. They are awful.
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They are worst case scenario predictions based on leaving with no deal.

If the EU have a similar department of experts they will show the same (if not worse) forecasts for them, whatever the blinkered remainers that wish to ignore the size of our economy say. It is the poorer countries like Bulgaria, Poland, Greece, etc, I will feel sorry for as they will be much less able to survive the downturn than the other current net contributors like Germany, France, etc

Everybody loses if there is no deal, The EU will strangle itself with its own red tape involved with its "Principles" if they are not willing to compromise in any way and make as many concessions as we do. If there is no deal though, the upside is that it would release us from the need to pay the Divorce bill which will give us a financial cushion against the short term effect of leaving.
 
Theresa May might turn out to be the Steve Lovell of the UK government. Given an impossible job to do that nobody thinks her team are capable of and are already preparing for relegation and getting outplayed every week. Then, against all expectation, she negotiates her way to win the most amazing EU trade deal that propels the UK to superpower status and our triple A rating is immediately restored. The NHS gets an extra 350m a week budgeted and etc, etc.
Or not.
 
Nice one Vambo. Lol.

Her problem solving skills stretch to asking housebuilding CEO's to forego profits and patriotically build the housing the country needs rather than do their job of maximising profits.

We have a Tory leader without a basic grasp of what Capitalism is. Sure, she'll be great at securing deals on the world markets, especially with Brain of Britain Davis to help her.
 
Ps, why did I recently get a considerably worse exchange rate in Euros compared to pre 2017 given that the Euro/EU was supposedly in an economic mess and about to collapse at that time?
 
Gills1958 - 9/3/2018 15:08

Ps, why did I recently get a considerably worse exchange rate in Euros compared to pre 2017 given that the Euro/EU was supposedly in an economic mess and about to collapse at that time?
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I don't deny that Project Fear did have some effects on matters where markets and confidence can get jittery but even that has an upside in that it makes our exports cheaper and imports more expensive, helping adjust the disparity in the balance of trade with the EU. A shot in the arm for our tourism industry as well.

As Shotshy said, Alderman has chosen to live and work in a foreign country and so being a Europhile should be satisfied that he will continue thrive in his surroundings.

Similarly, there is always a choice to be had as to whether to holiday abroad or in the UK where exchange rates are irrelevant.

 
GillsBluenose - There are three different scenarios for each part of the country. They are not just worse case. In fact for the NE the middle figure (with a free trade agreement) gives an 11% reduction in output over a number of years

Overall for UK
With no deal, growth would be reduced by 8%; with a free trade agreement, it would be 5%; and 2% if the UK remained a member of the European Economic Area, the government's report said.
 
I think it poor form to impugn a fellow's motives for his argument simply because he's been on the level about his own circumstances. As you point out, he has naturalization and residency options for himself. He thinks the EU is a good idea and is well placed to make his arguments. It is these that should be addressed.

 
GillsBluenose - 9/3/2018 16:43

As Shotshy said, Alderman has chosen to live and work in a foreign country and so being a Europhile should be satisfied that he will continue thrive in his surroundings.
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But should I choose to come back, I might have great difficulty bringing my family with me. It's a severe inconvenience and a loss of rights which I exercised in good faith when making my decisions.

Quite apart from that, it would have been nice to have had a say in the matter. There's a million Brits living in the EU and the majority of us weren't allowed to vote, having been off the electoral register too long. They brought in that rule not long before the referendum, and those votes could have swung it the other way.

People have been cut adrift. A lot of us are having to get naturalised just in order to keep the rights we already have. It's expensive, bureacratic, and stressful and and in some countries it means giving up your UK citizenship. It stinks.
 
jokerman - 9/3/2018 15:52

I think it poor form to impugn a fellow's motives for his argument simply because he's been on the level about his own circumstances.
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I agree 100% and sympathise with Alderman. I can see how he feels hard done by regarding Brexit bearing in mind his circumstances

However, a lot of remainers have seen fit to impugn the motives of the 52% who voted to Leave, implying we are all either insular, knuckle dragging racists or not as clever as they are.

I usually vote Labour, am indifferent about the Royal Family, to the best of my memory have never even held a union jack and feel uncomfortable towards the end of the Last Night of the Proms which always seems a bit jingoistic. My favourite food is Italian and will continue to be so. One of the nicest, funniest guys I have ever met is Polish and Tomas Holy is my favourite Gills player.

However, this country and particularly the south east is becoming increasingly crowded and basic facilities such as roads, schools and hospitals are becoming more and more stretched to breaking point and beyond. The Government sets immigration targets from the EU and if they kept to them I would say fair enough but they keep being massively exceeded. Yes, we need some immigration to staff essential services and plug the skills gap but all we are asking for is to be able to control numbers. At present, we can not do that thanks to the four so called "freedoms"

Does anyone know who came up with the idea of these "freedoms"? I know every member nation would originally have had a vote on it but the idea must have come from an individual. To me, that is the nub of the problem. Exactly why we can not just have an union of mutual free trade without having to accept laws, rules and diktats that do not suit us I really do not know. Surely, if it is all about standards, any company in Europe can check the goods that we send to them (or vice versa) and decide for themselves whether they meet the required standards before purchasing.
 
The brexit based discussion around eu immigrants taking our jobs resources etc may or may not be totally true. The interesting point however is that very little is said about non eu numbers which are actually higher than the eu numbers.
 
Gillsbluenose, not in the order you set them out;

History of the Single Market. If you're looking for a name, try Margaret Thatcher. When the economy of the EU began lagging behind the rest of the world, Mrs Thatcher sent Arthur Cockfield to the Delors Commission which was looking for ideas. Cockfield proposed the concept of the single market which was well received and led to the implementation of the Single Market on 1 January 1993.

Freedom of movement. The whole idea is that immigration is only at the levels needed to sustain any country's labour market. Study after study has shown that immigrants come to work rather than the Sun concept of coming for benefits. The U.K. has never used the power it has under EU rules to deport EU nationals if they are not in employment after 6 months. Given that are hundreds of thousands of vacancies in the NHS alone, promises of net migration in the 'tens of thousands' is misleading at best.

Standards of goods. The whole point of standards is to allow and enable frictionless trade. When standards diverge, as proposed by the so called hard Brexiteers, frictionless trade between the EU and the U.K. becomes impossible and border checks inevitable.
 
Like GillsblueNose, I consider myself left of centre but like many in Labour, I've always had a deep concern about how the EU operates and what it has morphed in to.

My belief is that there are a few fundamentals for a safe and secure society.
In no particular order are security, warmth, shelter, water and food.

I think that it is the job of Government, not the 'free market' to oversee and supply these to our citizens. That is because they are basics for human life.

Personally I'd back control of people coming in to the country, in conjunction with a massive build programme of social housing. This cannot be done while in the EU due to one of the four freedoms.
I'd back nationalisation of all the utility companies. Gas, electric, water. Can State subsidisation be allowed under EU rules?
I'd also include the railways and the nations postal service In this. Would the EU allow that?

Basic maths dictate that if you have more and more people, it naturally follows that you need more and more resources, so while not blaming mass immigration (+ 1 million every three years) for the housing shortage, it certainly hasn't helped the problem. Supply and demand at it's most basic level.

Like most rational people, I appreciate that this country needs a level of immigration, but it really should be on our terms.

The past is the past and the arguement about who signed up to what and who was the driver of this policy or that policy is totally irrelevant to any arguement now.
29th March 2019, the UK leeaves the EU.
All that now matters is how.

staunch Brexiteers and Absolute Europhiles are all going to be affected the same, so let's accept the inevitable and get on with making the best of it.
 
Shotshy, "more people means you need more resources". As someone trained as an economist, I can tell you that's not strictly true. The larger the size of the working population, the larger the GDP and then the choice is what you do with the income that produces. If that wasn't true, larger countries would by definition be poorer than smaller countries and that's clearly not the case. We have had a period of stronger growth in the UK than the rest of the EU which has driven employment led immigration. As the EU strengthens, which it is, so that immigration will reduce. Brexit hasn't been the only reason that net migration from the EU has declined. It's also because of rising job opportunities and rising wages in the EU.
 
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