Rough Guide to our Promotion Probability | Vital Football

Rough Guide to our Promotion Probability

Layton_Seasider

Layton_Seasider

Vital Football Hero
Yesterday was the most welcome of wins, the first time in nearly 2 years we have notched 3 league wins in a row. So as the season gets closer to ending, yes I know it's just over 3 months off, or 14 weeks, we will all start to look at permutations of our promotion odds or the probability.

I've had a look back at the final standings of previous League 1 tables (excluding the 2019/20 'Covid' season) and worked with the data and compiled averages as a very rough guide for what we may need to do to gain promotion from here on in.

Points totals:
22/23: Auto - 98. Play Off - 77
21/22: Auto - 90. Play Off - 83
20/21: Auto - 87. Play Off - 74
18/19: Auto - 91. Play Off - 73
17/18: Auto - 96. Play Off - 71

Average for auto = 92.4
Average for play offs = 75.6

We are currently on 45 points from 28. So to go up automatically, and with just 18 games to go, there is a liklihood we would need 48 more points, which would mean 15 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses. Or 16 wins and 2 losses. Very unlikely!

To go up via the playoffs we could possibly need just 31 more points, which would mean 10 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses! (Or other permutations of and including that total).

Then in the playoffs games 2 wins out of 3. That is certainly doable.

Looking at games we have, we have a lot of top and bottom clubs to play.
 
Layton_Seasider said:
Yesterday was the most welcome of wins, the first time in nearly 2 years we have notched 3 league wins in a row. So as the season gets closer to ending, yes I know it's just over 3 months off, or 14 weeks, we will all start to look at permutations of our promotion odds or the probability.

I've had a look back at the final standings of previous League 1 tables (excluding the 2019/20 'Covid' season) and worked with the data and compiled averages as a very rough guide for what we may need to do to gain promotion from here on in.

Points totals:
22/23: Auto - 98. Play Off - 77
21/22: Auto - 90. Play Off - 83
20/21: Auto - 87. Play Off - 74
18/19: Auto - 91. Play Off - 73
17/18: Auto - 96. Play Off - 71

Average for auto = 92.4
Average for play offs = 75.6

We are currently on 45 points from 28. So to go up automatically, and with just 18 games to go, there is a liklihood we would need 48 more points, which would mean 15 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses. Or 16 wins and 2 losses. Very unlikely!

To go up via the playoffs we could possibly need just 31 more points, which would mean 10 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses! (Or other permutations of and including that total).

Then in the playoffs games 2 wins out of 3. That is certainly doable.

Looking at games we have, we have a lot of top and bottom clubs to play.
Click to expand...
February is going to be the defining month with Oxfraud & Horwich at home and Stevenage, Posh & Orient away.

Our form is building nicely and with 2 home games before the end of this month and an improving injury list it could be an exciting 6 weeks coming up.

Just need Rhodes to rediscover his scoring boots and we have every chance of making the play offs!
 
Layton_Seasider said:
Yesterday was the most welcome of wins, the first time in nearly 2 years we have notched 3 league wins in a row. So as the season gets closer to ending, yes I know it's just over 3 months off, or 14 weeks, we will all start to look at permutations of our promotion odds or the probability.

I've had a look back at the final standings of previous League 1 tables (excluding the 2019/20 'Covid' season) and worked with the data and compiled averages as a very rough guide for what we may need to do to gain promotion from here on in.

Points totals:
22/23: Auto - 98. Play Off - 77
21/22: Auto - 90. Play Off - 83
20/21: Auto - 87. Play Off - 74
18/19: Auto - 91. Play Off - 73
17/18: Auto - 96. Play Off - 71

Average for auto = 92.4
Average for play offs = 75.6

We are currently on 45 points from 28. So to go up automatically, and with just 18 games to go, there is a liklihood we would need 48 more points, which would mean 15 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses. Or 16 wins and 2 losses. Very unlikely!

To go up via the playoffs we could possibly need just 31 more points, which would mean 10 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses! (Or other permutations of and including that total).

Then in the playoffs games 2 wins out of 3. That is certainly doable.

Looking at games we have, we have a lot of top and bottom clubs to play.
Click to expand...
I think it's been a poor league and the points we have dropped...
That said last time here under this manager we had a much better 2nd half to that season than the first.
I hope he strengthens our defence, and a quality midfielder.
He hasn't unlimited pockets for transfers but what I would like to think is, £8m / season more minimum for being in the Championship for spending £1.5m seems, to me, a no brainer.
 
Personally i'm not sure even 75 points will be enough for the playoffs this year. I think there's such a disparity between the top 8 and the rest of the league I think it'll be more like the 21/22 season when it was 80+ points.

I think we'll have a good second half but ultimately finish 7th.
 
inside_man said:
Personally i'm not sure even 75 points will be enough for the playoffs this year. I think there's such a disparity between the top 8 and the rest of the league I think it'll be more like the 21/22 season when it was 80+ points.

I think we'll have a good second half but ultimately finish 7th.
Click to expand...

I hear what you are saying there certainly has been a noticeable gap between top 8 and the also rans. But Portsmouth have been wobbling as have Horwich, them losing their last 2. Pompey have lost 2 and drawn 1 of their last 5. Oxford and Stevenage have also lost 2 of their last 5. Horwich have to play 3 more games than us and they, like us are still in the EFL Cup.

As Lakey as pointed out we have some real crunchers in the next 5-6 weeks with Bolton, Stevenage, Oxford, Peterborough and Portsmouth.

This thread was only meant as an early indicator after a welcome run of form. In 6 weeks or so we could be thinking about next season or starting to plan 2 trips to Wembley! 😎
 
SeasideEssexXile said:
Strengthening is the key.
Tighten that defence.
Click to expand...

A Kenny Dougall type (or Kenny himself) midfielder instead of Norburn is an absolute must.

Versus Brizzle that was the first time this season we were actually getting the ball forward early away from home. We ditched the tippy, tappy, backpassy football and played some 50/50 speculative forward passes. We had them on the back foot.

And the new found tactic of actually shooting at goal, rather than the attempted walking it in, also has borne fruits. It seems Critchley has remembered that quite a lot of teams in this division aren't very good and that by attacking them they make errors. Yes there's a time and team for playing more possession based football. I hope (like I do after every win) that Critchley realises that he can adjust, tweak or radically change his tactics for a certain team or during a game when it's going tits up. He has been very rigid up to now and unable to react or adjust to things when they aren't working or going well.

What memories Wembley (as well as MilStad) finals make. I'm still waiting for Keigy Parker to sign my 2007 programme. He's promised he will if I take him out for a pint when he's down here. Could get messy. Not been in touch with Charlie Adam's wifes mum either. She said she'd get Charlie to sign my 2010 programme. I got my mate's wife who works in a bank to get Sir Jimmy Armfield to sign my programme of his testimonial game. 😎
 
How strange a memory popped up on Facey of Sir Jim's passing 6 years ago today. RIP
 

Attachments

  • FB_IMG_1705912947096.jpg
    FB_IMG_1705912947096.jpg
    134.4 KB · Views: 2
  • FB_IMG_1705912959019.jpg
    FB_IMG_1705912959019.jpg
    146.5 KB · Views: 2
Layton_Seasider said:
A Kenny Dougall type (or Kenny himself) midfielder instead of Norburn is an absolute must.

Versus Brizzle that was the first time this season we were actually getting the ball forward early away from home. We ditched the tippy, tappy, backpassy football and played some 50/50 speculative forward passes. We had them on the back foot.

And the new found tactic of actually shooting at goal, rather than the attempted walking it in, also has borne fruits. It seems Critchley has remembered that quite a lot of teams in this division aren't very good and that by attacking them they make errors. Yes there's a time and team for playing more possession based football. I hope (like I do after every win) that Critchley realises that he can adjust, tweak or radically change his tactics for a certain team or during a game when it's going tits up. He has been very rigid up to now and unable to react or adjust to things when they aren't working or going well.

What memories Wembley (as well as MilStad) finals make. I'm still waiting for Keigy Parker to sign my 2007 programme. He's promised he will if I take him out for a pint when he's down here. Could get messy. Not been in touch with Charlie Adam's wifes mum either. She said she'd get Charlie to sign my 2010 programme. I got my mate's wife who works in a bank to get Sir Jimmy Armfield to sign my programme of his testimonial game. 😎
Click to expand...
I'm resigned to Kenny being gone.
See that Man Ure kid we were linked to is off to Port Vale on loan. Think that's their 3rd signing in less than a week, although 1 of thise others was Rhys Williams🤣
I reckon loan signings will be crucial and will probably form the majority of any incoming this window.
 
SeasideEssexXile said:
I'm resigned to Kenny being gone.
See that Man Ure kid we were linked to is off to Port Vale on loan. Think that's their 3rd signing in less than a week, although 1 of thise others was Rhys Williams🤣
I reckon loan signings will be crucial and will probably form the majority of any incoming this window.
Click to expand...
Oh dear Jensen Weir and Rhys Williams. May as well as signed Doddy Weir and Charlie Williams! 🤣
 
SeasideEssexXile said:
I'm resigned to Kenny being gone.
See that Man Ure kid we were linked to is off to Port Vale on loan. Think that's their 3rd signing in less than a week, although 1 of thise others was Rhys Williams🤣
I reckon loan signings will be crucial and will probably form the majority of any incoming this window.
Click to expand...
I wouldn’t mind loans for both CB and midfield if the right players aren’t available otherwise.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.